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Mortality and fertility: how large is the direct child replacement effect in China?

"The direct child replacement effect, that is the extent to which parents will have a child to replace one that died, was estime d by Olsen's method in China, using microdata from a sample survey of 4785 ever-married women in Hebei province taken in 1985. Olsen's method corrects for bias in the ordinary least squares estimate and uses mortality rates as an instrumental variable. Data for all age groups were pooled. Estimates of the direct replacement effect before and after correction for bias were 0.836 and 0.556, showing that over half of child deaths were replaced. The instrumental variable estimate produced a result of 0.614, similar to 0.613, computed by considering p1 to be random. A computation without instrumental variables yielded 0.774. The results showed that this method for calculating the direct replacement effect works well with these data because several of the alternative methods gave close estimates. There appears to be little family specific variation in child mortality rates, pointing out the effectiveness of Chinese primary health care. The direct replacement effect of about 0.6 is, however about 3 times that found by Olsen in Colombia and Malaysia, and close to the theoretical maximum. The reason for such a high value may be the small family size in China, where death of a child is more likely to provoke a response. Or it might suggest that severe government policy causes couples to attempt to have another child. Policy implications in this setting are that rather than make more contraceptives available, or improve infant survival, Chinese policymakers should make a small family size attractive, e.g., by improving education or pensions.

Asia↗

Breast-feeding and family planning: a review of the relationships between breast-feeding and family planning.

A number of interrelated factors must be considered when breast-feeding is introduced as a concern for family planning programs: the number of pregnancies and births experienced, age at each pregnancy and birth, duration of the intervals between conceptions, lactation including duration and type, health and nutritional services available to meet the demands of pregnancy, delivery, and postpartum care. The dietary intake of the mother and her health and disease status have an effect on the duration of breast-feeding, and lactation has an effect on her ovulation and birth spacing. Those at particularly high risk include adolescent girls, older grand-multipara women, and families living in poverty. An historical relationship between the reduction in infant and childhood mortality and the falling off of births can be documented. The straightforward benefits on nutritional status of breast-fed infants, the conjunction with the antibody protection afforded by breast milk, served to reduce infant mortality and indirectly served to reduce birth rates. In addition, the prolongation of postpartum anovulatory cycles in breast-feeding women, coupled with sexual mores that postpone sexual relations while a women is breast-feeding in certain groups, will serve to prolong the interbirth intervals. Populations where breast-feeding is customary have been shown to have fewer births than populations where the women do not breast-fed and where infants are artificially fed.

Age Factors↗

The infant mortality-fertility debate: some international evidence.

"The aim of this paper is to analyze empirically the causal relationship, if any, between infant mortality and fertility in thirty-five developing countries." The focus is on possible relationships between the infant mortality rate and the fertility rate. "The hypothesis that infant mortality causes fertility is tested. The possibility of a 'reverse causation' is also analyzed. A one-sided distributed lag test as proposed by Granger...is employed." The results are analyzed in light of several versions of the mortality-fertility proposition, including demographic transition theory, choice theory, Ricardian theory, and the modern economic theory of population.

Behavior↗

[Dental caries and the morbidity and mortality index in populations with endemic fluorosis].

Clinical and statistical research, conducted in collaboration with other workers in some instances, into the behaviour of dental decay and the morbidity and mortality indices in populations with dental fluorosis due to the ingestion of naturally fluorinated water in Calabria and Sicily showed that the fears expressed with respect to the toxic effect of fluorine on the organism can be considered excessive. It can also be asserted that fluorine is at present the only means available of ensuring a real reduction caries following its ingestion via various routes.

Adolescent↗

Nitric oxide production in meningococcal disease is directly related to disease severity.

OBJECTIVES: Meningococcal disease is a homogeneous and well-characterized form of sepsis. Cardiovascular collapse is prominent in severe meningococcal disease. Nitric oxide overproduction may be a mediator of cardiovascular collapse. We relate the level of nitric oxide metabolites, nitrates and nitrites, to disease severity in meningococcal disease. DESIGN: Prospective, nonrandomized study. SETTING: Tertiary referral pediatric intensive care unit. PATIENTS: Children admitted with a clinical diagnosis of meningococcal disease. INTERVENTIONS: Blood was sampled from children with meningococcal disease. Disease severity was scored using the Glasgow meningococcal septicemia prognostic score and pediatric risk of mortality score. Plasma nitrates and nitrites were measured in stored plasma using the Greiss reaction after conversion of all the nitrate to nitrite. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Twenty-two children were studied. In 19, the final diagnosis was meningococcal disease. Of the 19 children with meningococcal disease, 7 had a Glasgow meningococcal septicemia prognostic score of <8 (mild) and 12 had a Glasgow meningococcal septicemia prognostic score > or = 8 (severe). Three children died, all of these being in the severely affected group. Higher levels of nitrates and nitrites were seen in the more severely affected children (median admission nitrates and nitrites, 27.5 vs. 59.7 nmol/mL; p = 0.063; median peak nitrates and nitrites, 49.9 vs. 114 nmol/mL; p = .01) or those with an increased predicted mortality using pediatric risk of mortality (Spearman's p 0.742; p = .0003). CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of nitrates and nitrites are seen in sicker children with meningococcal disease.

Child↗

[Systemic sclerosis and pregnancy].

PURPOSE: Pregnancy in a patient with systemic sclerosis (SSc) may pose a double problem to the medical team: influence of SSc on pregnancy and consequences of pregnancy to SSc manifestations. CURRENT KNOWLEDGE AND KEY POINTS: Concepts have evolved. SSc was considered for a long time not only as not very propitious for pregnancy but also as a strict contraindication for procreation because risks for the mother and the baby were thought to be major. Currently, fertility is thought to be normal. Miscarriages and small-for-gestation age infants rate do not seem to be higher in SSc. Maternal and perinatal mortality is also not higher in SSc without severe visceral manifestations, i.e. without either pulmonary hypertension, or cardiac or respiratory insufficiency. Conversely, there is a significantly higher frequency of premature infants in SSc. As regards influence of pregnancy on SSc, the greatest fear is the occurrence of renal crisis, which may be life threatening for both mother and child. Each elevation of blood pressure, even if this increase is mild, should be considered as potentially very serious. However, pregnancy itself does not seem to increase the risk of renal crisis. Consequences of pregnancy to SSc manifestations are various but usually mild. FUTURE PROSPECTS AND PROJECTS: SSc is not a strict contraindication for pregnancy only if severe organ involvement, diffuse subset of SSc or recent onset of the disease has been ruled out. Physicians should be aware of specific problems, which SSc is possibly posing during pregnancy. Finally, it has been recently suggested that pregnancies could be involved in the pathogenesis of SSc through persisting microchimerism of fetal origin.

Acute Disease↗

Exercise training in obese children and adolescents: current concepts.

Childhood obesity has reached epidemic proportions worldwide and is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in adult life. The increase in fat mass in children and adolescents has occurred concomitantly with a decline in reported time for exercise. Evidence suggests that non-physically active children are more likely to become non-physically active adults and that encouraging the development of physical activity habits in children helps establish patterns that continue into adulthood. Dietary treatment of obesity is relatively ineffective in adults and it has been suggested that prevention of obesity in childhood and adolescence should emphasise increased physical activity rather than diet because of fears relating to the adverse effects of inappropriate eating patterns. Despite this, there are very few randomised controlled studies investigating the efficacy of exercise training in obese children or adolescents and many of the extant studies have been poorly controlled and have not specifically stratified the independent effect of exercise versus dietary modification. This review focuses on the well designed controlled trials that have evaluated the effect of exercise training in obese children and adolescents on body composition, haemodynamic and metabolic variables, cardiovascular fitness, muscular strength and vascular function. These studies indicate that, although exercise training does not consistently decrease bodyweight or body mass index, it is associated with beneficial changes in fat and lean body mass, emphasising the importance of comprehensive assessment of body composition in future exercise-training studies. Exercise training improves cardiovascular fitness and muscular strength; however, it seems to have little effect on blood lipid profile or blood pressure in obese young people. Importantly, recent studies have demonstrated that exercise training improves vascular endothelial function, an important surrogate measure that may predict future atherosclerotic risk in obese children and adolescents. Given that improvement in vascular function in these training studies occurred in the absence of changes in lipid fractions, haemodynamic variables or glucose metabolism, exercise appears to have a direct beneficial effect on the vasculature, in addition to its putative benefits through risk-factor modification.

Adolescent↗