Underenumeration in 1991 census. Census inaccurate for many ethnic groups.
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Adolescent↗
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Letter to the editor: the 1970 U.S. census. Reply from the Census Bureau.
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Communication↗
Estimating census undercount from school enrollment data: an application to the Soviet censuses of 1959 and 1970.
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Adolescent↗
The Demeny-Shorter and three-census methods for correcting age data.
This paper presents, tests, applies, and compares methods that utilize age data collected at consecutive censuses to examine and adjust for age and coverage errors. The Demeny-Shorter method, for example, was devised for this purpose, and its flexibility in regard to census coverage errors is examined. The Demeny-Shorter method is found difficult to apply directly, so a method based on the same idea as the Demeny-Shorter method but utilizing age data from three, instead of two, successive censuses is presented and discussed as a possible alternative. This three-census method is applied to data from Turkey's censuses and, in some cases, found to be better than the Demeny-Shorter method, because the former allows for and estimates the likely changes in census coverage and different patterns of age errors in successive censuses. Unfortunately, the three-census method cannot be applied to data from most developing countries on account of a lack of the requisite series of censuses.
Demography↗
Using data from the 1991 census.
The 1991 census for England and Wales provides a substantial amount of data on demography, ethnicity, housing tenure, employment status, and other social factors for geographical areas ranging in size from enumeration districts upwards. Many in the health service and in the academic community are making use of the data in the 1991 census. However, users of census data need to be aware of the problems and limitations of these data, which include the format of the data, data modification and suppression, sampling error, and underenumeration. An important innovation of the 1991 census was that the census form included a question on the postcode of respondents; this allowed the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys to produce a postcode-enumeration district look up table which overcomes many of the problems previously encountered in trying to assign postcodes to enumeration districts. The new look up table also includes the grid reference of postcodes, and this will improve the geographical referencing of census data.
Data Collection↗
Interpreting the new illness question in the UK census for health research on small areas.
STUDY OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to identify the various factors that seem to influence the average response to the new census question on limiting, long standing illness at the small area level, to assess the extent to which the new questions adds to information already available in the census and elsewhere, and to discuss how useful the data are likely to be for those planning health and social services. DESIGN: This was a cross sectional analysis of the relationship between rates of limiting, long standing illness (standardised for age and sex) and a large number of indicators of health and socioeconomic status at the small area level. SETTING: The study used data relating to 4985 small areas covering the whole of England. The average population was about 10 000. PARTICIPANTS: The 1991 census of population was addressed to the entire population of England. MAIN RESULTS: There are wide variations in the levels of self reported long standing illness between small areas, 70% of which are explained by demographic factors. Variation in age/sex standardised responses to the new census question at the small area level can largely be explained by census data on self reported disability among those of working age, standardised mortality ratio, and by indicators of socioeconomic circumstances relating to social class, ethnicity, and the elderly living alone. These does not seem to be a significant reporting bias due to underemployment. CONCLUSION: Unlike the disability question in the census, the standardised, self reported long standing limiting illness ratio covers the entire population and it is not skewed towards men. Although the variable is a synthesis of the health and social determinants of perceived morbidity, it does not provide much information that was not already available. In addition, it is available every 10 years only and thus may be rather inaccurate as an indicator of relative need towards the end of the decade. Moreover, in future censuses, individuals' answers might be influenced by the knowledge that their responses will affect the volume of resources allocated to the area in which they live.
Adolescent↗
Overcoming the absence of socioeconomic data in medical records: validation and application of a census-based methodology.
BACKGROUND: Most US medical records lack socioeconomic data, hindering studies of social gradients in health and ascertainment of whether study samples are representative of the general population. This study assessed the validity of a census-based approach in addressing these problems. METHODS: Socioeconomic data from 1980 census tracts and block groups were matched to the 1985 membership records of a large prepaid health plan (n = 1.9 million), with the link provided by each individual's residential address. Among a subset of 14,420 Black and White members, comparisons were made of the association of individual, census tract, and census block-group socioeconomic measures with hypertension, height, smoking, and reproductive history. RESULTS: Census-level and individual-level socioeconomic measures were similarly associated with the selected health outcomes. Census data permitted assessing response bias due to missing individual-level socioeconomic data and also contextual effects involving the interaction of individual- and neighborhood-level socioeconomic traits. On the basis of block-group characteristics, health plan members generally were representative of the total population; persons in impoverished neighborhoods, however, were underrepresented. CONCLUSIONS: This census-based methodology offers a valid and useful approach to overcoming the absence of socioeconomic data in most US medical records.
Adult↗
Use of census-based aggregate variables to proxy for socioeconomic group: evidence from national samples.
Increasingly, investigators append census-based socioeconomic characteristics of residential areas to individual records to address the problem of inadequate socioeconomic information on health data sets. Little empirical attention has been given to the validity of this approach. The authors estimate health outcome equations using samples from nationally representative data sets linked to census data. They investigate whether statistical power is sensitive to the timing of census data collection or to the level of aggregation of the census data; whether different census items are conceptually distinct; and whether the use of multiple aggregate measures in health outcome equations improves prediction compared with a single aggregate measure. The authors find little difference in estimates when using 1970 compared with 1980 US Bureau of the Census data or zip code compared with tract level variables. However, aggregate variables are highly multicollinear. Associations of health outcomes with aggregate measures are substantially weaker than with microlevel measures. The authors conclude that aggregate measures can not be interpreted as if they were microlevel variables nor should a specific aggregate measure be interpreted to represent the effects of what it is labeled.
Censuses↗
Census tract analysis of lead exposure in Rhode Island children.
There has been increasing interest in a targeted approach to the screening and prevention of lead exposure in children. Targeted screening requires an understanding of variation in lead exposure in individual children or by region. In order to better understand variation by region, we studied Rhode Island lead poisoning screening data, examining average lead exposure to children living in 136 Providence County census tracts (CTs). The study population included 17,956 children aged 59 months and under, who were screened between May 1, 1992, and April 30, 1993. We evaluated the relationship between the percentage of children with blood lead > or = 10 micrograms/dL (pe10) and sociodemographic and housing characteristics, derived from United States 1990 Census data, of these CTs. CT descriptors included population density, percentage of households receiving public assistance income, median per capita income, percentage of households female headed, percentage of houses owner occupied, percentage of houses built before 1950, percentage of houses vacant, percentage of population Black, percentage of recent immigrants, and intraurban mobility. On average, 109 children were screened in each census tract; mean screening rate was 44%. There was wide variation in average lead exposure among census tracts, with pe10 ranging from 3 to 60% of screened children (mean 27%). Individual census variables explained between 24 and 67% of the variance in pe10 among CTs. A multiple regression model including percentage screened, percentage of households receiving public assistance, percentage of houses built before 1950, In (percentage of houses vacant), and percentage of recent immigrants explained 83% of variance in pe10. The percentage of houses built before 1950, a variable which models the presence of lead paint in old houses, displayed the largest adjusted effect on pe10 over the range observed for that variable in RI CTs. The percentage of houses vacant was also a highly significant and robust predictor; we suggest that vacancy is an ecological marker for the deterioration of leadbased paint, with higher vacancy neighborhoods containing houses in poorer condition. In Rhode Island, census tracts with high vacancy rates also have high rates of recent immigration, making immigrant groups vulnerable to lead exposure. Small-areas analysis may be useful in directing resources to high risk areas, explaining the sociocultural forces which produce such exposure and analyzing the effects of housing policy over time in states with high screening penetration.
Child, Preschool↗
Evaluation of methods for calculating census health indicators for GP practices.
The patients registered with a general practice are usually spread over many census areas and overlap with the distribution of neighbouring practices, so a validated method of aggregating census data to describe the characteristics of practice patients is required. Four methods were used to provide estimates of the percentage of patients aged 75 years and over from census data for 81 practices in Suffolk, England, and these were compared with values derived from the FHSA patient register. Census values for practice areas produced better estimates than those based on the location of the surgery, but the best methods were based on patient-weighted averages of ward and enumeration district data. The finer geographical detail of enumeration districts did not produce substantially more accurate estimates than the ward-level data: both gave estimates with limits of agreement within 2% of the patient register values. Errors in the census, errors in patient registers and selective geographical distributions of practice patients prevent close matching of census and register measures, but two of the methods tested produced estimates that allow broad comparisons between practices.
Aged↗
Allocating census data to general practice populations: implications for study of prescribing variation at practice level.
OBJECTIVES: To assign census data to general practice populations and to test accuracy of different procedures for estimating the proportion of patients aged over 64. DESIGN: Patients' postcodes from patient register of one family health services authority and the directory linking postcodes to census enumeration districts were used to locate patients in their census area of residence. With different levels of census geography and four different allocation procedures, proportion of patients aged over 64 in each area was used to predict proportion of patients aged over 64 in each general practice. Predicted figures were compared with real figures from each practice register to assess accuracy of allocation methods. SETTING: Data from 1991 census and from 73 practices administered by one family health services authority. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Actual and predicted proportions of patients aged over 64 in general practice populations. RESULTS: Correlations between actual and predicted proportions of patients aged over 64 were significant for all four allocation procedures--values of 0.66, 0.7, 0.84, and 0.84 were achieved (P < 0.0005). Predicted ranges of proportions of patients aged over 64, however, were well short of those that actually existed, and significant differences existed between predicted percentages and actual figures for all four methods. CONCLUSION: Although predicted values correlated with actual values, the failure of the allocation procedures to correctly predict values, especially at the extremes, casts doubt on the validity of similar techniques for allocating census variables to general practice populations.
Age Factors↗
Occupational cancer in Denmark. Cancer incidence in the 1970 census population.
Data sources and creation of data files. The cohort of persons who were 20-64 years of age at the time of the 1970 census has been followed for cancer incidence for a ten-year period. The study was made by linkage of individual records from the 1970 census, the Central Population Register, death certificates, and cancer registrations. Data were included on individual characteristics recorded in the census on prevalent cancer cases at the time of the census and on deaths, emigrations, and incident cancer cases during the ten-year follow-up period. The study includes a total of 2.8 million persons, of whom 2.0 million were economically active at the time of the 1970 census. A total of 115,000 incident cancer cases were registered during the follow-up period, and 77,000 of these occurred in persons who were economically active in 1970. The classifications used in the census included 218 codes for occupation and 245 codes for industry. The Cancer Registry data included 639 codes for diagnosis. Cancer incidence by social groups in Denmark. The cancer incidence was tabulated across 32 socioeconomic groups for 43 cancer sites among the men and 45 cancer sites among the women. The study showed an almost twofold difference in the overall cancer incidence between the socioeconomic groups of the men. Self-employed farmers were at low risk (RR 0.68), and unskilled workers in shipping/fishing were at high risk (RR 1.28) when the cancer incidence among all economically active men was used for the comparison. The social pattern in cancer incidence correlated well with the pattern for cancer mortality among men. As a rough estimate, the cumulative incidence for all cancer among persons under 75 years of age could be reduced by 32% if all Danish men had the cancer incidence of farmers. There was a fivefold or larger difference between the socioeconomic groups in the incidence for nine cancer sites. These nine cancer sites together represented 7% of the cumulative incidence for all cancer. Estimated in a similar way, the cumulative incidence could be reduced by 44% if all Danish men had the site-specific cancer incidence of the respective low-risk groups. The overall cancer incidence among the women varied from a relative risk of 0.71 for unskilled workers in agriculture to a relative risk of 1.18 for self-employed women in other industries I (dentists, lawyers, etc) when the cancer incidence among all economically active women was used for the comparison.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)
Adult↗
How much do we count? Interpretation and error-making in the decennial census.
Following a critique of the 1990 decennial census procedures, we conducted a field study among low-income, inner-city residents in 1991 to examine how they conceptualized and managed the civic task of census response. Interpretations about the purpose and meaning of the census, about commitment to the task, and about connection to government, singly and together with literacy skills (e.g., reading and general literacy competence), were associated with errors that are not detectable by evaluative methodologies used regularly by the Census Bureau. The validity and reliability of census data, and possibly other self-administered survey research, will be increased by greater use of knowledge about both interpretation and literacy skills in formulating data collection procedures.
Attitude↗
Federal funding formulas and the 1980 census.
Distribution of federal funds has achieved equal status with Congressional reapportionment as a motivation and justification for the Census of Population and Housing. This article describes the effects that U.S. population redistribution during the 1970s, as measured by the 1980 Census, will have on the spatial distribution of federal grants-in-aid provided to state and local governments through programs with formula-based funding systems. The conclusion is that funding changes will not match population changes. The overall redistribution of federal grants-in-aid to state and local governments occurring in response to incorporation of 1980 Census population counts into federal funding formulas will be far less than the level of population redistribution since 1970. Use of intercensal data, formula specifications, limited geographic specificity in many formula allocations, and nonformula determinants of formula-based grants all weaken the relationship between Census-measured population change and the receipt of federal funds at the local level. Despite all the intervening factors, it is probably that in many programs there will be some redistribution of funds when the 1980 Census counts are incorporated into the allocation formulas. But the importance of measurement errors and threshold and reclassification effects may equal that of true population change in determining the funds received by local communities.
Financing, Government↗
Identifying older people with dementia: the effectiveness of a multiservice census.
A census of all relevant services in an area can be used to identify people with mental impairment suggestive of dementia. Two censuses in Tayside, Scotland, were used to test the effectiveness of this method. False positives accounted for 12% of returns. After excluding false positives, by comparison with expected dementia prevalence based on EURODEM, 66% of all sufferers and 50% of those living in the community were identified by the censuses. By pro-rating for non-response, the proportion of sufferers known to services was estimated as 72%. The characteristics of those not known to services are unclear and further research is needed on this. The cost of a census in an area of 250,000 population is under pounds 3000. A multiservice census offers a simple, inexpensive, practicable method of constructing a sample frame for population needs assessment.
Aged↗
Planning the 2001 census: only four years to go.
The first key stage in the build-up to the 2001 Census was reached with the 1997 Census Test on 15 June. As 2001 approaches, Population Trends will carry articles describing the detailed work and analyses that underpin preparations and decisions affecting the Census. In this inaugural article Graham Jones, Director of Census, ONS, explains the principles and issues which underpin the planning process, and the work in hand. A second article, from Dr David Martin, on the geographical information system planned for use in the 1997 Census Test appears later in this issue.
Bias↗
The impact of a major televised sporting event on emergency department census.
This study examines the effect of a major televised sporting event, the Super Bowl, on emergency department (ED) census. Daily patient census figures for the month of January 1988-1992 were obtained. Individual shift census was divided by monthly mean census to compare relative volume. Census figures for 4 of the 5 Super Bowl days were significantly lower than the remaining 143 days studied. The day of the Super Bowl was the month's slowest shift for 3 of the 5 days. When the local team was a playoff participant, a stronger association was noted. The results demonstrate a significant decrease in ED utilization coinciding with the Super Bowl broadcast. Major televised events can significantly decrease ED volume, especially when local interest is present. Staffing changes may then be made accordingly.
Emergency Service, Hospital↗
[Validity of the municipality of residence in mortality statistics: findings based on municipality census update in 2 municipalities of the Valencian community].
This study was designed to assess the validity of the variable "city of residence" in mortality statistics in relation to the information available in municipal census. Monthly record-linkages between mortality register and two municipal population census corresponding to the period 1991-1992 have been studied. The population census belong to Benidorm, an important Spanish coastal tourist centre, and Alcoi, a traditional industrial city. Results show that of those listed in the Alcoi mortality statistics (602 deaths), 83% were registered in its municipal population census. In Benidorm (282 deaths), this percentage was 54%; in this last city, having a private address (in contrast with hotel, apartment or clinic address...) was positively related with being registered (66.2% versus 8.8%). Likewise, deceased with Spanish names were in more likely to be registered names in municipal population census: 70.2% versus 11.9%, respectively. The evidence obtained shows that tourist area mortality statistics could be unreliable due to the incorrect reporting of the city of residence on the death certificate, and suggests actions to improve it, which should take into account the town authorities and funeral services.
Demography↗