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PubMed1984

Sex-specific equivalent retirement ages: 1940-2050.

This article presents four measures of equivalent retirement ages to be considered when analyzing retirement age issues. Insofar as previous research reveals significant sex differences in life expectancy at the older ages, the analysis here extends the question of equity when increased retirement age is considered by examining each measure separately for men and for women. The measures are applied to data from 1940 to 2050. In the first two measures, all improvements in life expectancy at retirement are assigned to the labor force ages; in the second two measures, increases in life expectancy are shared between expected time in the labor force and expected time in retirement. In each case, the increase in life expectancy at retirement was measured both as the expected years in retirement among those surviving to retirement and as the expected years in retirement among all persons entering the labor force. The findings have different implications in terms of equity when an increased retirement age is considered. The article concludes that although it may not be appropriate to establish separate retirement age schedules for men and women, an awareness of existing life expectancy differences between the sexes should help in selecting a middle-range choice.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2004

The costs and benefits of community thrombolysis for acute myocardial infarction : a decision-analytic model.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that the earlier a patient reaches hospital and receives thrombolysis, the better the outcome. The GREAT (Grampian Region Early Anistreplase Trial) directly addressed the issue of early thrombolysis by evaluating, in a randomised controlled trial, the efficacy of thrombolysis in the community compared with that administered in hospital. OBJECTIVE: This paper aimed to model the cost and benefits of community compared with hospital thrombolysis from the UK NHS perspective, using efficacy data from the GREAT. METHODS: A decision-analytic approach was used to model these two alternatives. Resource use and cost estimates were estimated for a single tertiary centre. Estimates of effectiveness in life-years were obtained from the 4-year follow-up for patients recruited to the GREAT, using declining exponential approximation of life expectancy. Costs are in pounds sterling, 2000/1 values. RESULTS: Community thrombolysis had an average life expectancy of 12.48 years and hospital thrombolysis had an average life expectancy of 12.39 years. Costs were 361 pounds sterling for community thrombolysis and 300 pounds sterling for hospital thrombolysis. Community thrombolysis led to an additional 0.09 years of life-expectancy gained compared with hospital thrombolysis at an additional cost of 61 pounds sterling per patient. Therefore, the incremental cost per life-year gained for the community thrombolysis service over the hospital thrombolysis service was 667 pounds sterling. Sensitivity analysis showed that estimates of cost per life-year gained were most sensitive to the estimates of survival. CONCLUSION: This model suggests that, from the UK NHS perspective, implementing community thrombolysis may lead to extra survival but at extra cost over hospital thrombolysis. Although the incremental cost per life-year is modest, judgements still have to be made, however, as to whether the extra benefits estimated are worth the additional resources required. This requires consideration of the local context in which the service may be introduced.

Anistreplase↗

PubMed1995

Mortality in patients with hemophilia. Changes in a Dutch population from 1986 to 1992 and 1973 to 1986.

OBJECTIVE: To determine causes of death and mortality rates in patients with hemophilia over a period of 20 years, to assess changes in mortality, and to distinguish between hemophilia-related death and recent death induced by viral infections. DESIGN: Cohort study of 919 patients followed from January 1986 to June 1992. Results were compared with outcomes of previous follow-up from 1973 to 1986. SETTING: Consecutive national questionnaire surveys on hemophilia, using patient registries of the Netherlands Hemophilia Society and Dutch hemophilia centers. PATIENTS: 919 males hemophilia A or B who participated in a national questionnaire survey on hemophilia in 1985. Median duration of follow-up was 6.4 years, which yielded 5753 person-years of follow-up. The mean age at study entry was 30 years (range, 1 to 85 years). MEASUREMENTS: Standardized mortality ratios, causes of death, median life expectancy, age-adjusted relative risks associated with the type or severity of hemophilia, presence of inhibitors, prophylaxis, and human immunodeficiency virus infection. RESULTS: 45 patients (5%) died between January 1986 and June 1992; 22.6 patients had been expected to die. Thus, the overall standardized mortality ratio was 2.0. The overall median life expectancy was 66 years for the cohort studied from 1973 to 1986 and 68 years for the cohort studied from 1986 to 1992. When deaths related to viral infection were excluded, the life expectancy almost equaled that of the general male population. Between 1986 and 1992, 1 patient died of ischemic heart disease compared with the 5.2 who were expected to die of this disease. Infection with HIV was the strongest independent predictor of death (relative risk, 27.5 [95% CI, 5.7 to 132.8]). After adjustment for HIV infection, no other hemophilia-related risk factors were associated with the risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: The acquired immunodeficiency syndrome and hepatitis strongly influence mortality in patients with hemophilia. In the absence of viral infections, the life expectancy of patients with hemophilia would almost equal that of the general male population.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Misdirection on the road to Shangri-La.

Will life expectancy in the United States rise or fall in this century? The implications of either scenario are far reaching. We contend that the rise of childhood obesity in the United States in the past three decades has been so dramatic that it will soon lead to higher than expected death rates at middle ages and a possible decline in life expectancy by midcentury. The most detrimental health and longevity effects will not be seen for decades--a phenomenon that cannot be detected by current methods used to forecast life expectancy or estimate the number of deaths currently attributable to obesity. This scenario contrasts sharply with the views of mathematical demographers who generate forecasts by relying on the assumption that the U.S. pattern of longevity will follow that of other longer lived nations and on the extrapolation of historical trends in life expectancy into the future.

Journal Article↗

PubMed1996

Intracranial mass lesions in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome: using decision analysis to determine the effectiveness of stereotactic brain biopsy.

We studied the effectiveness of performing a stereotactic brain biopsy in the individual with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and an intracranial mass lesion who failed 2 weeks of antitoxoplasmosis therapy. We used a decision analysis to compare two different treatment strategies: biopsy and no biopsy. The analysis estimates the average life expectancy for each choice and investigates the sensitivity of these results by varying parameters within the model. In the base case analysis (diagnostic yield of biopsy, 0.89; operative mortality, 0.015; life expectancy of lymphoma untreated and treated, 42 and 120 days), the life expectancy of the biopsy strategy was 98 days compared with 67 days for the no-biopsy strategy, for a net survival benefit of 31 days. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the life expectancy of the biopsy strategy remained greater than the no-biopsy strategy for a wide range of variable specifications. The net survival benefit, however, was sensitive to the diagnostic success rate, the operative mortality, the likelihood of a lymphoma diagnosis, and the life expectancy of patients being diagnosed and treated for lymphoma. These data allow AIDS patients and physicians to learn more about the potential outcomes of the alternative management strategies when an individual fails to respond to empiric antitoxoplasmosis therapy.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

PubMed1988

A cost-effectiveness analysis of exercise as a health promotion activity.

We used cost-effectiveness analysis to estimate the health and economic implications of exercise in preventing coronary heart disease (CHD). We assumed that nonexercisers have a relative risk of 2.0 for a CHD event. Two hypothetical cohorts (one with exercise and the other without exercise) of 1,000 35-year-old men were followed for 30 years to observe differences in the number of CHD events, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life expectancy. We used jogging as an example to calculate cost, injury rates, adherence, and the value of time spent. Both direct and indirect costs associated with exercise, injury, and treating CHD were considered. We estimate that exercising regularly results in 78.1 fewer CHD events and 1,138.3 Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) gained over the 30-year study period. Under our base case assumptions, which include indirect costs such as time spent in exercise, exercise does not produce economic savings. However, the cost per QALY gained of $11,313 is favorable when compared with other preventive or therapeutic interventions for CHD. The value of time spent is a crucial factor, influencing whether exercise is a cost-saving activity. In an alternative model, where all members of the cohort exercise for one year, and then only those who like it or are neutral continue, exercise produces net economic savings as well as reducing morbidity.

Adult↗

PubMed1993

How can we best prolong life? Benefits of coronary risk factor reduction in non-diabetic and diabetic subjects.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the theoretical benefits of different approaches to reduce risk factors for coronary heart disease in subjects at risk. DESIGN: The results of findings from meta-analyses of intervention studies on cause specific mortality and of observational studies on smokers and ex-smokers were applied to observational data on 10 year cause specific mortality derived from the multiple risk factor intervention trial. Lifetable analyses were used to estimate gains in life expectancy. SUBJECTS: Diabetic and non-diabetic men initially 35-57 years of age. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 10 year mortality from coronary heart disease, 10 year total mortality, man years of intervention to prevent one death and one death from coronary heart disease, gain in life expectancy, and drug costs per year of additional life in diabetic and non-diabetic men of 45. RESULTS: In non-diabetic men a 10 year mortality from coronary heart disease of 14.4 per 1000 would be reduced by a mean of 0.58, 0.82, 2.64, and 2.74 per 1000 by antihypertensive treatment, lowering cholesterol concentration, taking aspirin, and stopping smoking respectively; a 10 year total mortality of 44.1 per 1000 would fall by a mean of 1.06, 5.16, and 8.65 per 1000 with antihypertensive and aspirin treatment and stopping smoking respectively and increased by a mean of 0.07 per 1000 with the lowering of cholesterol concentration. In diabetic men the reductions in mortality from coronary heart disease would be between three and five times greater, and total mortality would show mean reductions of 5.81, 0.56, 16.17, and 20.84 per 1000 respectively, with all interventions of significant benefit except the lowering of cholesterol concentration. Between 2400 and 3800 man years of pharmacological intervention were calculated as being necessary to prevent one death from coronary heart disease in a non-diabetic man, and between 800 and 1200 man years in a diabetic man. The loss of life expectancy associated with smoking and hypertension is greater than that accruing from hypercholesterolaemia, but stopping smoking would prolong life by a mean of around four years in a 45 year old non-diabetic man and three years in a diabetic man, whereas aspirin and antihypertensive treatment would provide approximately one year of additional life expectancy in both categories. CONCLUSIONS: Studies to date have shown little impact of drugs that lower cholesterol concentration and blood pressure on either coronary heart disease or total mortality. Although new treatments for hypercholesterolaemia and hypertension might help prevent coronary heart disease, other approaches to reduce the burden of premature death are required.

Adult↗

PubMed1994

Primary care, specialty care, and life chances.

The relationship between the availability of primary care and specialty care and certain life chance indicators such as mortality rates and life expectancy is analyzed using the multiple regression procedure. Dependent variables are life chance indicators; independent variables were selected based on Starfield's and Blum's health determinant models and include socioeconomic environment, lifestyles, demographics, and medical care. The author also examines the rankings of states in terms of these indicators, using Spearman's rho coefficient. Among the medical care variables, primary care is by far the most significant variable related to better health status, correlating with lower overall mortality, lower death rates due to diseases of the heart and cancer, longer life expectancy, lower neonatal death rate, and lower low birth weight. In contrast, the number of specialty physicians is positively and significantly related to total mortality, deaths due to heart diseases and cancer, shorter life expectancy, higher neonatal mortality, and higher low birth weight. From a policy perspective, a likely implication is to reorient the medical profession from its current expensive, clinically based, treatment-focused practice to a more cost-effective, prevention-oriented primary care system.

Health Services Accessibility↗

PubMed1992

The evolving demography of aging in the United States of American and the former USSR.

In the United States of America and in the republics of the former USSR, the elderly (persons aged 60 and over) will comprise the same proportion of their respective societies by the year 2000, namely 17%. In both countries, this population subgroup is growing at a faster rate than the rest of the population and living longer, although there are now more differences than similarities between the two countries in respect of the elderly, as summarized below. Similarities. In both countries today, the age group 50 years and over represents 26% of the total population, and by the year 2000 it is expected that 17% of the population will be 60 years and over. Diseases of the circulatory system and neoplasms are the major causes of death in both countries. Life expectancy beyond retirement age (i.e. the number of years a person is expected to live after having retired) is about the same in both, but this is due to the statistical fact that in the former USSR women are expected to have an extra year of life expectancy compared to their United States counterparts, while men are expected to live 2.5 years less beyond retirement than their United States counterparts. Differences. Mortality rates in the former USSR are higher than those in the United States. Life expectancy for men in the former USSR is 6.5 years below the figure for United States males. By age 65, the differences are 2.7 years for women and 2.4 years for men. Today, the proportion of the population having reached retirement age is larger in the former USSR than in the United States (17% vs 15%) because of lower retirement age in the former USSR. By the year 2000, these figures are expected to be 19% and 25%, respectively. Men make up 27% of the pension-age population in the former USSR against 41% in the United States. Life expectancy at birth could increase by 4 years for men in the former USSR if they had the same mortality rates from diseases of the circulatory and respiratory systems as their United States counterparts. Similarly, women in the former USSR would gain 4 years of life from these two causes alone. Older women are more likely to be married in the United States than in the former USSR, and this difference increases with age: at age 65, 25% of the former USSR's women are married versus 41% in the United States.

Adult↗

PubMed2000

Socioeconomic differences in health expectancy in Denmark.

BACKGROUND: Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups. METHODS: Data on health status and occupation were derived from Health Interview Surveys. Information on occupation and deaths is register data. Health expectancy in each socioeconomic group was calculated using Sullivan's method. RESULTS: Among 30-year-old men, high-level salaried employees had the longest expected lifetime in perceived good health, 41 years, which amounts to 89% of life expectancy, compared to 34 years (73%) for farmers, 32 years (73%) for unskilled workers, and 19 years (56%) for economically inactive men. Expected lifetime in perceived good health for high-level salaried female employees from age 30 was 46 years (91% of life expectancy). The lowest was found for assisting spouses, 36 years (71%) and economically inactive women, 25 years (56%). Large differences were also found when data on long-standing illness were used. CONCLUSION: The differences between socioeconomic groups are greater for health expectancy than for life expectancy.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Toward measuring the impact of ecological disintegrity on human health.

Ecological integrity refers to the ability of environmental life-support systems to sustain themselves in the face of human-induced impacts. We used a correlational, aggregate-data study design to explore whether life expectancy, as a general measure of population health, is linked to large-scale declines in ecological integrity. Most of the data were obtained from World Resources Institute publications. Selected surrogate measures of ecological integrity and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (as a socioeconomic confounder) were modeled, for the first time, using linear regression techniques with life expectancy as the health outcome. We found a modest relation between ecological integrity and life expectancy, but the direction of the association was inconsistent. When GDP per capita was controlled, the relation between ecological integrity and life expectancy was lost. GDP per capita was the overwhelming predictor of health. Any relation between ecological integrity and health may be mediated by socioeconomic factors. The effect of declines in ecological integrity may be cushioned by the exploitation of ecological capital, preventing a direct association between measures of exposure and outcome. In addition, life expectancy may be too insensitive a measure of health impacts related to ecological decline, and more sensitive measures may need to be developed.

Cross-Sectional Studies↗

PubMed2006

Individual fracture risk and the cost-effectiveness of bisphosphonates in patients using oral glucocorticoids.

OBJECTIVES: There are few data on the cost-effectiveness of bisphosphonates with oral glucocorticoids (GCs). An individual patient-based pharmaco-economic model was developed. METHODS: Data were obtained from a cohort of oral GC users aged 40+ (n = 190 000) in the UK General Practice Research Database. Individualized fracture and mortality risks were calculated specific for age, sex, daily and cumulative GC dose, indication and other clinical risk factors. UK costs of medication and direct costs of fracture were obtained from National Institute for Clinical Excellence and used to estimate costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained and fracture prevented for bisphosphonates in patients treated for 5 yrs with GCs. RESULTS: With the use of 5 mg GCs daily, the cost per one QALY gained with bisphosphonates was 41k UK pounds (95% confidence intervals 22-72k) in women aged <60 [men 40k pounds (29-54k)], 17k pounds (13-24k) in women aged 60-79 [men 43k pounds (31-60k)], 5k pounds(3-6k) in women aged 80+ [men 35k pounds (25-46k)]. With 15 mg GC, these figures were 17k pounds (14-21k), 13k pounds (10-16k) and 15k pounds (9-26k) in women and 22k pounds (17-26k), 34 pounds (23-53k) and 33k pounds (27-42k) in men, respectively. When stratifying by overall fracture risk and life expectancy at the start of GC therapy, cost per QALY increased with decreasing life expectancy. Patients with rheumatoid arthritis had comparatively better cost-effectiveness, given higher fracture risk and better life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of bisphosphonates varied substantially. Bisphosphonates can be considered cost-effective in patients with higher fracture risks, such as elderly patients (with a life expectancy over 5 yrs), and younger patients with a fracture history, low body mass index, rheumatoid arthritis or using high GC doses.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

Cost-effectiveness of photodynamic therapy for high-grade dysplasia in Barrett's esophagus.

BACKGROUND: Photodynamic therapy appears to be effective in ablating high-grade dysplasia in Barrett's esophagus. Our aim was to identify the most effective and cost-effective strategy for managing high-grade dysplasia in Barrett's esophagus without associated endoscopically visible abnormalities. METHODS: By using decision analysis, the lifetime costs and benefits of 4 strategies for which long-term data exist were estimated by us: esophagectomy, endoscopic surveillance, photodynamic therapy, followed by esophagectomy for residual high-grade dysplasia; and photodynamic therapy followed by endoscopic surveillance for residual high-grade dysplasia. It was assumed by us that there was a 30% prevalence of cancer in high-grade dysplasia patients and a 77% efficacy of photodynamic therapy for high-grade dysplasia and early cancer. RESULTS: Esophagectomy cost 24,045 dollars, with life expectancy of 11.82 quality-adjusted life years. In comparison, photodynamic therapy followed by surveillance for residual high-grade dysplasia was the most effective strategy, with a quality-adjusted life expectancy of 12.31 quality-adjusted life years, but it also incurred the greatest lifetime cost (47,310 dollars) for an incremental cost-effectiveness of 47,410 dollars/quality-adjusted life years. The results were sensitive to post-surgical quality of life and survival, and to cancer prevalence if photodynamic therapy efficacy for cancer was less than 50%. CONCLUSIONS: Photodynamic therapy followed by endoscopic surveillance for residual high-grade dysplasia appears to be cost effective compared with esophagectomy for patients diagnosed with high-grade dysplasia in Barrett's esophagus. Clinical trials directly comparing these strategies are warranted.

Adenocarcinoma↗

PubMed2001

Predicted impact of attaining smoking reduction goals on mortality.

The impact of reducing smoking initiation, increasing smoking cessation, and combination approaches on life expectancy, deaths averted, and life-years gained in a birth cohort of 50,000 persons and in the state population (3.6 million) were analyzed. A 60% reduction in initiation of smoking in adolescents would increase life expectancy by 0.42 years. Over the next 100 years, there would be an additional 18,000 years of life for a birth cohort and an additional 675,000 years of life for the state's population. The reduction in mortality, however, would not begin before 35 years, and only 25% of the benefit would occur in the next 70 years. An increase in smoking cessation would have a smaller impact that would occur sooner. Maximum reduction in mortality could be achieved by reducing initiation and increasing cessation at all ages, but a reduction in mortality would not occur for several decades.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1995

Mortality in a migrating Mennonite church congregation.

Preston's two-census method of demographic estimation is applied to three pairs of reconstructed censuses from the records of a migrating Mennonite church congregation covering the period 1780-1890. The three pairs of censuses correspond to three periods (1780-1790, 1850-1860, and 1880-1890) and to stays in three settings (Prussia, Russia, and Kansas, respectively). The Mennonites' stay in Prussia was a period of hardship. In Russia they expanded their economic base and developed new farming methods, dramatically increasing their productivity. The Mennonites took these skills to Kansas, where they continued to be successful. The increase in life expectancy at age 5 corroborates this picture. The Prussian period exhibits the shortest life expectancy for both sexes. After the move to Russia, life expectancy increased for both sexes and continued to increase with the move to Kansas. The model also provides limited evidence for fertility depression following the move to Kansas.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2000

Azathioprine for maintenance of remission in Crohn's disease: benefits outweigh the risk of lymphoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Azathioprine is a commonly used and effective treatment for maintenance of remission for patients with steroid-dependent Crohn's disease (CD). However, azathioprine therapy is associated with an increased risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. The objective of this analysis was to determine the impact of azathioprine therapy on survival and quality-adjusted life expectancy after accounting for both the benefits of therapy and potential increased risk of lymphoma. METHODS: A decision analysis using a Markov model depicting the natural history of alternative management strategies for maintenance of remission in patients with CD was performed. RESULTS: In the base-case analysis, treatment of CD patients with a steroid-induced remission with azathioprine resulted in an average increase in life expectancy of 0.04 years and 0.05 quality-adjusted years. The incremental gain in life expectancy decreased with increasing patient age and increasing risk of lymphoma. CONCLUSIONS: Therapy with azathioprine to preserve remission in patients with CD results in increased quality-adjusted life expectancy. This increase was greatest in young patients who have the lowest baseline risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and who have the greatest life expectancy in the absence of a CD-related death.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2002

[Development of mortality in western and eastern Germany since 1991].

At the beginning of the 1990s, life expectancy was clearly higher in the western part of Germany than in the eastern part (life table 1991/93, difference in life expectancy of newborn boys 3.25 years, girls 2.3 years). Since then the life expectancy has increased in western and eastern Germany differently. Despite a harmonization, differences still exist (life table 1997/99: boys 1.8 years, girls 0.8 years). Based on age-specific mortality rates, the decrease of mortality between 1991 and 1999 was particularly strong in the group of 25- to 35-year-old persons in eastern Germany as well as in the group of 30- to 35-year-old persons in western Germany. The largest differences in mortality - based on the probabilities of death in 1997/99 - are evident in the group of 18-year-old men and women as well as in the group of men between 35 and 44 years. At present women in eastern Germany show a lower mortality in some age groups than in western Germany.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Hepatitis C: cost of illness and considerations for the economic evaluation of antiviral therapies.

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection affects 170 million individuals worldwide. As it is detected incidentally through the evaluation of liver function tests or at the time of blood donor testing, it is usually clinically silent until the advanced stages of liver disease have occurred, when treatment is less effective and shortages of donor liver organs limit the therapeutic options. Combination therapy with ribavirin and pegylated interferon has resulted in sustained viral negative response rates of 54-61%. Because treatment is expensive and not uniformly effective, and because not all chronically infected patients will develop complications, concerns have arisen regarding the cost effectiveness of combination therapy. This paper reviews the public health and individual implications of HCV infections. Because of the latency of infection, numerous country-specific population analyses suggest that HCV will cause an increasing number of liver-related deaths over the next 10 years, despite the dramatic drop in incidence over the past 10-15 years. These deaths will be related to prevalent HCV infection from transfusion and injection drug use prior to identification of the virus and availability of screening tests in the late 1980s and early 1990s. HCV can reduce life expectancy and impair quality of life, yet not all patients will develop progressive liver disease, and antiviral treatment may have associated adverse effects. Finally, to assess the value of antiviral drugs for HCV infection, this paper reviews studies examining the costs of antiviral drugs and of the disease itself along with response to antiviral therapy and the cost effectiveness of antiviral therapy. Although antiviral therapy appears to be expensive, when also considering the likelihood of sustained viral response to therapy, and the cost savings, quality-of-life improvement and prolongation of life expectancy from the prevention of HCV complications, antiviral treatment for HCV appears to be cost effective when compared with other well accepted medical interventions.

Antiviral Agents↗