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Bayesian demography: projecting the Iraqi Kurdish population, 1977-1990.

"Projecting populations that have sparse or unreliable data, such as those of many developing countries, presents a challenge to demographers. The assumptions that they make to project data-poor populations frequently fall into the realm of ¿educated guesses', and the resulting projections, often regarded as forecasts, are valid only to the extent that the assumptions on which they are based reasonably represent the past or future, as the case may be. These traditional projection techniques do not incorporate a demographer's assessment of uncertainty in the assumptions. Addressing the challenges of forecasting a data-poor population, we project the Iraqi Kurdish population using a Bayesian approach. This approach incorporates a demographer's uncertainty about past and future characteristics of the population in the form of elicited prior distributions."

Asia↗

Preoperative localization of brain lesions by magnetic resonance imaging with a marking device. Technical note.

A new technique for preoperative localization of brain lesions using magnetic resonance imaging and a marking device is described. The projection of lesions, especially superficial brain tumors, is demonstrated on the scalp, with an acceptable tolerance for open procedures. This simple and inexpensive method, which was use in a group of 34 patients, can assist surgeons in planning an operative approach to intracranial lesions.

Brain↗

Technical artifacts in magnetic resonance imaging.

Various artifacts of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) typically associated with currently available imaging techniques such as projection reconstruction and two-dimensional fourier transform (2D-FT) are described and illustrated. Examples of MRI artifacts were obtained with an imaging unit with a super conducting magnet operated at .15 Tesla and .27 Tesla with corresponding proton resonance frequency of 6.4 MHz and 11.25 MHz. The .15 Tesla images were obtained using projection reconstruction and the .27 Tesla using the 2D-FT method. Instrument related artifacts include those due to direct current (DC), projection, gradient offset, active shimming, phase encoding, and pulse sequencing. Other often encountered artifacts are related to the patient. These include those due to motion, ferromagnetic effect, and tissue contents. The cause of these artifacts and how (if possible) they may be eliminated or minimized is discussed.

Diagnostic Errors↗

Using the SARs to add policy value to household projections.

"Household projections are at the centre of the debate about future housing requirements in England. The Census of Population Sample of Anonymised Records offers actual and potential opportunities to ¿add value' to traditional projections. This article gives examples of such added value, including testing definitional sensitivity of projection outcomes, assisting further detailed disaggregation of projected components, assisting the matching of household projections to dwelling supply, and offering scope to explore via data linkage the relationships between household projections and ¿backlog' housing needs, affordability, dwelling size, and tenure."

Data Collection↗

Demographic disaggregation in the construction of regional econometric models: a statistical evaluation.

"A cohort-component method is used to construct historical annual age/sex disaggregations of total population. In econometric models of six substate areas [in the United States], regressions are estimated with and without the disaggregated data for five model variables expected to be dependent on the size of particular population subgroups. Statistical tests are performed to determine significant differences in residual variance of estimation with and without the disaggregated data. Although age/sex population projections may be a desired model output per se, the results indicate that the population subgroup data generally do not improve estimation of other model variables." (summary in FRE, ITA, JPN, )

Age Distribution↗

Cruelty and narrowmindedness.

The contention of this paper is that human understanding modifies cruelty, and that in order that cruelty can remain unmodified various mechanisms are employed. The most important processes include the worship of omnipotence which is felt to be superior to human love and forgiveness, the clinging to omnipotence as a defence against depression, and the sanctification of grievance and revenge. In order to avoid conscious guilt, the perceptions of the mind are narrowed to give ostensible justification to the cruelty, and the obviation of redeeming features in the object. The paper explores how these processes operate and how by virtue of projection the analyst's interpretations are perceived as cruel, and how the patient arranges to be locked in this vicious circle. Technical problems of dealing with these forces are explored together with the task of bringing alive the human concern that modifies cruelty.

Adult↗

Using technology to teach health: a collaborative pilot project in Alabama.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identified six adolescent risk behaviors that contribute to chronic diseases and disorders, including poor dietary habits, sedentary lifestyle, and abuse of alcohol, tabacco, and other drugs. This project pilot-tested a "train-the-trainer" model to diffuse an interactive health education software program into Alabama middle schools during a school year. Developmentally appropriate content included nutrition, physical activity, and prevention of substance use. Twenty-four site facilitators selected from 18 public school systems trained 364 colleagues and 2,249 students to use the software. During a school year, facilitators created 150 student assignments; they reported increased interest among students in health instruction. An essential feature of the project involved an active partnership among the funder, state department of education, university, and public schools. Planners provided technical assistance through face-to-face interaction, distance learning, telephone and e-mail communications, and a Web site. Planners and facilitators worked together to overcome barriers to the use of technology for health instruction.

Alabama↗

An evaluation of population forecast errors for Florida and its counties.

The authors evaluate the forecasting accuracy of population projections formulated at state and county levels for Florida. They find that "projections of Florida population made in the 1970s and 1980s had errors...of approximately 2-3 percent for 5-year horizons, 5-6 percent for 10-year horizons and 8-9 percent for 15-year horizons. County projections had errors averaging approximately 5, 10 and 15 percent for these three lengths of horizon, respectively. Based on comparisons with other studies of state and substate population projections, we believe this is a good record of forecast accuracy...."

Americas↗

[[Development of new relational models for the age pattern of mortality]].

After a discussion of the Brass logit model of age-specific mortality, the author proposes five new relational models of the age pattern of mortality. These models and related mathematical extensions of the conventional logit model are assessed as to "their applicability as model life table systems and projection tools of age patterns of mortality in time series. The results indicate that [the] relational models serve as useful demographic tools for estimation and projection besides [their] original use in analytical studies of aging and mortality processes." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Age Factors↗

The formal demography of families and households: an overview.

"The objective of the present paper is to give a brief overview of the subject matter of the formal demography of the family. Selected references are included, but no attempt is made to be exhaustive. No discussion of socio-economic determinants or consequences is included, because this overview is limited to the formal aspects of the field. "The...paper is divided into five parts. The first deals with the descriptive analysis of family and household size and composition, from both a cross-sectional and a longitudinal perspective. The next two sections discuss, in order, demographic determinants and consequences. This is followed by a brief section on projection methods and the conclusion."

Demography↗

Robin Heart 2003--present state of the Polish telemanipulator project for cardiac surgery assistance.

The Polish telemanipulator (Robin Heart), for use in cardiac surgery, has been realized by the Foundation of Cardiac Surgery Development in Zabrze, Poland, in cooperation with specialists from the Technical University of Lodz and Warsaw University of Technology. The brief history of robotic surgery and fundamental advantages of employing robots in this field--safe, reliable and repeatable operative results with less patient pain, trauma and recovery time--follow the assumptions of the Polish Cardio-Robot project. The cardiac surgery robot, Robin Heart, is an original construction with a segment type structure which allows the various combination of its parts for different types of surgery. The telemanipulator for cardiac surgery will consist of two arms equipped with tools and one arm holding the camera. Several models suitable for surgeon contact systems, using the experience of centers designing the artificial hand and haptic systems have been worked out. The detailed mechanical analysis and original construction of main parts of the robot and development of the surgical planning system are presented in further sections.

Cardiac Surgical Procedures↗

Clinical field follow-up of high density polyethylene (HDPE)-Jaipur prosthetic technology for trans-femoral amputees.

The purpose of this study was to examine the outcome of the application of the high density polyethylene (HDPE)-Jaipur prosthetic construction in fitting trans-femoral amputees in a number of projects throughout the developing world. Projects in Honduras, Uganda and India were included. One hundred and fifty eight (158) patients had been provided with the HDPE-Jaipur prosthesis and of these 72 were seen for a clinical and technical follow-up after a median of 32 months. More than half the amputees seen had amputation due to trauma and the remainder due to disease. Fabrication and fitting in the three projects was carried out by individuals who had undertaken a three week training course provided by Bhagwan Mahaveer Viklang Sahayata Samiti limb centre in Jaipur. The individuals involved had limited background training in prosthetics. Craftsmanship and fit were assessed as being poor in 86% of cases. Failure requiring replacement of components was observed in 50% of cases. There was low patient satisfaction (58%) and patient compliance (65%). The outcome was considered unsatisfactory both technically and clinically. This was a reflection of the inadequacies of the prosthetic construction, particularly the knee joint, and the inadequate training of those involved in fitting and fabrication of the devices.

Adolescent↗

The future population and the future labour force.

"The combination of two recent publications by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides a useful insight into feasible future trends in the population, the labour force and dependency ratios. In addition, earlier ABS census data and its regular publications from the Labour Force Surveys clarify the historical trends in the relative number of dependants and nondependants. These various sources of data are brought together in this paper.... Official population projections...highlight the fact that the combination of annual zero net migration and 10 per cent below replacement fertility would not produce an immediate decline in Australia's population.... The conventional labour-force dependency ratio suggests that the dependency situation in Australia in 2041 will be no worse than it was in the early 1980s."

Australia↗

Paperless medical records: measuring success.

North Shore Magnetic Imaging Center (NSMIC) underwent a major transformation of the patient process through an 18-month "Reinvention Project." The project began in October 2002, with an assessment of systems in place. A complete review of each stage of the patient process--scheduling, registration, insurance verification, screening, scanning, transcription, and billing--resulted in the discovery that the paperwork for a single patient examination could go though as many as 20 sets of hands. The project was supported by the formation of an internal team comprised of staff members from all departments (support, patient accounts, and technical), radiologists, and members of the center's senior management team. The team had 2 goals: increase the level of patient care, and create a paperless environment. External teams were formed to address specific areas targeted to support the process. The transformation for all involved--patients, staff, radiologists, and referring physicians--has proved to be very positive. The work, however, was not finished. Upon the project's completion, NSMIC recognized the importance of identifying successes and areas for improvement. These included ongoing reviews of the project's impact on all stakeholders and looking for new technologies and programs to enhance the new systems in place. There are plans for a project "sequel." Strategies are being developed for "Reinvention, Phase II." Elements of these strategies include enhancement of the scheduling programs to create more checks and balances for the staff and investigating an online scheduling option for the center's referring physicians. The purchase and implementation of a voice recognition system--tabled during Phase I--is scheduled for the first quarter of 2005.

Decision Making, Organizational↗

New reproductive technologies, ethics and legislation in Brazil: a delayed debate.

This paper focuses on the debate about the utilization of new reproductive technologies in Brazil, and the paths taken in the Brazilian National Congress in an attempt to draw up legislation to regulate the clinical practice of human assisted reproduction. British documents, such as the Warnock Report and Human Fertilization and Embriology [sic] Authority (HFEA) are used for thorough reference. The analysis of the Law Projects in the National Congress, the Resolution by the Federal Medicine Council, Resolution 196/96 and documents by the the Ministerio Publico (Public Prosecution Office), supplied the bases for the discussion. The principal question involved is the observation of different technical and moral prientations [sic] that influence the conduct of the issue in the legislative process. It is possible to observe that the main focus of the projects relates to the rights and interests of the children, to those possibly benefited by the technique and to embryo reduction. Very little attention has been directed to the issues of sexual and reproductive rights and to the health of the women submitted to the new reproductive techologies [sic].

Bioethics↗