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Rethinking the probative value of evidence: base rates, intuitive profiling, and the "postdiction" of behavior.

It is argued that American courts may be routinely admitting evidence with little to no probative value and great potential for prejudicial impact. This may be particularly likely with regard to what is essentially "intuitive profiling" or "stereotype" related evidence, defined herein as evidence suggesting that the defendant (or other party), or his (her) behavior, fits intuitive "profiles" (or stereotypes) of the type of person likely to commit the crime or behavior in question. In other words, "intuitive profiling" evidence is admitted to "postdict" behavior Formal empirically based "profiling" evidence (testimony regarding the fit of a defendants characteristics or behaviors to formal or scientific profiles of the typical perpetrator of the crime in question) for use to prove guilt is inadmissible in American courts. However, we suggest that everyday use of informal intuitive profiles underlies both judicial determinations of probative value (diagnosticity), and thus admissibility, of evidence, and jurors' use of the evidence in determining guilt. Demonstrations of the use of base rate information to evaluate the probative value of such intuitive profiling evidence both as evidence of guilt and as evidence of innocence are provided. Demonstrations of both how to evaluate the actual probative value of evidence (when all necessary values are known), and the theoretical limit of its probative value (in circumstances where some values are not known) are provided. It is argued that such evaluations may provide the basis for (1) support of motions to either admit or to exclude evidence, (2) testimony to the jury to help them weigh or interpret evidence, (3) exculpatory profiling (profiling evidence of innocence), (4) pretrial research to establish probative versus prejudicial value of evidence, and (5) sufficiency analyses to determine maximum likelihood of guilt, given multiple items of evidence. Among these, the first two are considered most important, as it can be demonstrated that many "profiling" characteristics currently admitted in trial (such as evidence of battery to support a murder charge) are not probative of guilt.

Decision Support Techniques↗

[The Hinckley case and some sequelae for psychiatry].

After John Warnock Hinckley jr. had fired shots at President Reagan and had severely injured three others, he was considered not guilty by reason of insanity and brought to a psychiatric hospital. The case caused an unprecedented public interest because the psychiatric testimonies were contradictory (schizophrenia vs. personality disorder). According to the known facts it is very unlikely that a German psychiatrist would have diagnosed Hinckley as schizophrenic. One of the sequels of the sentence was a lowering of the reputation of psychiatrists for their inability to arrive at clear diagnosis. Another sequel was to increase the funds for research in biological psychiatry. Still another sequel was an insanity defense reform bill. The scientific debate and public discussions continue.

Commitment of Persons with Psychiatric Disorders↗

[Legal family assessment in the case of alcoholic parents].

Legal testimony in families with alcohol abusing parents requires extensive psychological assessment concerning developmental risks and coping resources of the children, specific characteristics of abuse, abuse related behaviour and comorbidity of the alcohol abusing parent als well as morbidity of the non-alcoholic parent. Children of alcoholics and their parents themselves need long-term help beyond the process of divorce and legal activities which demands close cooperation between social institutions involved.

Adolescent↗

[A testimony procedure of forensic psychiatry used for criminal cases].

A testimony procedure of forensic psychiatry containing of the following steps as: "to set-up the medical diagnosis-to clarify the criminal motive-to determine the property of criminal legal ability damage-to evaluate the criminal responsibility" is recommended, and upon them "to clarify the criminal motive" is of importance. The property of criminal legal ability damage can be determined through the criminal motive and then the degree of criminal responsibility can be evaluated objectively through the criminal motive and criminal legal ability effected by the disease.

Crime↗

Testimony to the Pepper Commission: the United States Bipartisan Commission on Comprehensive Health Care.

Finally, let me emphasize that the National Medical Association stands ready to assist the Congress in structuring and implementing any new programs that may result from this gathering. We do have a concern regarding the lack of basic race-specific data, including the extent of long-term care problems in the black communities. It is widely believed that an improved data base to assess the needs and to deal with the issues confronting the black and other minority or economically disadvantaged patient would greatly help to improve existing modes of treatment and outcome.

Black or African American↗

Psychiatric testimony in "cult" litigation.

Changes in political or religious beliefs among POWs and hostages have often been attributed to "brainwashing" or "coercive persuasion." The cases reported have usually involved people held involuntarily. Since the publication of DSM-III, the authors have noted frequent usage of the term "atypical dissociative disorder" in civil lawsuits by plaintiffs seeking damages from groups or cults they joined voluntarily. The effects of "psychological captivity" are claimed to be comparable to the effects of involuntary participation in instances of kidnapping or being taken prisoner. The authors suggest that voluntary and involuntary activities are fundamentally dissimilar and that the use of DSM-III is problematic in these cases.

Expert Testimony↗

Law & psychiatry: insanity, guilty minds, and psychiatric testimony.

This column describes a recent Supreme Court case, Clark v. Arizona, in which an adolescent who had schizophrenia was convicted of first-degree murder of a police officer who he believed was a hostile space alien. The Arizona courts had rejected his insanity defense as well as a second defense that he lacked the required intent to commit the crime (mens rea) because his delusions interfered with his knowing that the victim was a police officer. The Court ultimately declined to overturn Arizona's rules regarding the insanity defense and mens rea. However, the column highlights the points in Justice Souter's decision that may have implications for any case involving mental health issues.

Adolescent↗

The role of the medical laboratory technologist in drinking and driving cases. Part 2: The use of hospital alcohol results as evidence and providing testimony in court.

Medical laboratory technologists routinely conduct alcohol analyses for medical purposes, however, in certain circumstances the results are used legally to determine a driver's Blood Alcohol Concentration. The technologist who performed the analysis may subsequently be required to provide evidence in court. The primary areas of interest to the court in these cases are: the type of swab utilized, the continuity of the blood sample, the method of analysis, the margin of error of the results, and the conversion of a serum alcohol concentration to a blood alcohol concentration in units as per the Criminal Code. Pre-trial preparation, courtroom procedures, and suggestions to enhance the technologist's credibility as a professional witness are outlined.

Alcohol Drinking↗

Daubert, cognitive malingering, and test accuracy.

Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals (1993) held that trial judges should permit expert scientific testimony only when "the reasoning or methodology underlying the testimony is scientifically valid, and ... properly can be applied to the facts in issue." Vallabhajosula and van Gorp ("V & vG," 2001) have suggested that when the Daubert standard is applied to tests for malingered cognitive deficits, courts should deem admissible only results that meet this mathematical standard: assuming a pretest probability of .3, a "positive" score on the malingering test should yield a posttest probability of at least .8. This paper shows that V & vG's criterion may lead to misunderstandings about the kind of information maligering measures provide. After reviewing cases that have discussed both the Daubert decision and malingered cognitive deficits, this paper uses data from the Test of Memory Malingering (T.N. Tombaugh, 1996) to provide a general characterization of the mathematical properties of malingering measures. The paper then describes how pretest knowledge about malingering is combined with knowledge about a test's performance to generate a posttest probability of malingering. The results can help mental health experts respond to Daubert-inspired challenges to conclusions based on malingering measures.

Bayes Theorem↗

Testimony and interrogation of minors: assumptions about maturity and morality.

This article examines the legal histories and social contexts of testimony and interrogation involving minors, developmental research on suggestibility and judgment, interactions between development and legal/sociological contexts, and the reasoning behind how minors are treated in different legal contexts. The authors argue (a) that young witnesses, victims, and suspects alike possess youthful characteristics that influence their ability to validly inform legal processes, some of which were recently recognized by the Supreme Court as they apply to the juvenile death penalty, and (b) that consideration should be given to reforming current practices in the context of juvenile interrogation. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

Child↗

[The witness in German criminal case (a contribution from the legal, psychological and psychiatrical view) (author's transl)].

The judgement of adult witnesses in particular cases, as sufficiently made clear by the described special case, is at least as necessary as a specialist's opinion of child testimony. Furthermore, it should be noted that the present modus of criminal proceedings does not allow for adequate objectivation possibilities of testimony of witnesses. Thirdly, it should be pointed out that at least for the so-called key witnesses a specialist's examination, i.e. by a psychiater and a psychologist is of great importance; it seems at least necessary that in problematic cases the specialist or the court should have the possibility to interrogate the witness to the exclusion of the public. It also seems of utmost importance to extend the judge's knowledge in the field relevant to the subject during his university education and also during his further professional instruction in order to enable him to identify problematical cases in time and decide on calling upon an adequate specialist.

Expert Testimony↗

A practical method for the evaluation of symptom exaggeration in minor head trauma among civil litigants.

Forensic psychiatrists and psychologists are often called on to provide opinions and render testimony in which minor head trauma accompanied by persistent somatic, cognitive, and/or emotional symptoms is alleged. The frequency of persistent symptoms following such minor head injury is generally low. The forensic clinician therefore must differentiate between subtle brain dysfunction, symptom amplification, psychogenic-based causes for the presence of cognitive and other deficits, or frank malingering. The purpose of this article is twofold: first, to review critical issues related to the assessment of malingering and symptom exaggeration in mild head injury cases; and second, to offer a practical model for the assessment of amplified neuropsychological and psychiatric deficits in civil litigants in cases of minor head trauma.

Craniocerebral Trauma↗

The quality of forensic psychological assessments, reports, and testimony: acknowledging the gap between promise and practice.

During the past decade, the field of forensic psychological assessment entered a period of standard setting, reflected in the publication of specialty guidelines for practice and in the proliferation of educational opportunities, training programs, and credentialing and certification procedures for forensic examiners. Representing significant efforts to advance the quality of psychological assessments in legal contexts, these developments foreshadow the promise of forensic assessment. During this same time period, new evidence emerged regarding the quality of forensic practice. This article reviews this evidence and evaluates current practice against the promise of forensic assessment. Forensic reports appear to be of higher quality than those described by commentators in the 1970s and early 1980s; nevertheless, the level of practice falls far short of professional aspirations for the field. The review identifies significant areas of weakness that demand the attention of professional organizations, accrediting agencies, educators, lawmakers, practitioners, and consumers.

Child↗

The impact of Daubert: implications for testimony and research in forensic anthropology (and the use of frontal sinuses in personal identification).

This paper emphasizes the need for objectivity and standardized methodologies in the forensic sciences, particularly physical anthropology. To this end, a review of important events in scientific evidence admissibility law, particularly the standards set in the case of Daubert v. Merrell-Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 1993, is presented. The method of confirming a putative identification by visual comparison of antemortem and postmortem frontal sinus radiographs is examined in light of current admissibility standards. The technique is revealed to have a number of shortcomings, including a lack of empirical testing, no estimates of potential error rates, no standards controlling the technique's operation, and no objective determination standards. These shortcomings may, in some instances, prevent resulting conclusions from being admissible evidence. It is suggested that some methods (including frontal sinus comparison) may require more rigorous testing in order to meet these new and stricter standards.

Anthropometry↗

Legal standard of care: a shift from the traditional Bolam test.

An essential component of an action in negligence against a doctor is proof that the doctor failed to provide the required standard of care under the circumstances. Traditionally the standard of care in law has been determined according to the Bolam test. This is based on the principle that a doctor does not breach the legal standard of care, and is therefore not negligent, if the practice is supported by a responsible body of similar professionals. The Bolam principle, however, has been perceived as being excessively reliant upon medical testimony supporting the defendant. The judgment given by the House of Lords in the recent case of Bolitho imposes a requirement that the standard proclaimed must be justified on a logical basis and must have considered the risks and benefits of competing options. The effect of Bolitho is that the court will take a more enquiring stance to test the medical evidence offered by both parties in litigation, in order to reach its own conclusions. Recent case law shows how the court has applied the Bolitho approach in determining the standard of care in cases of clinical negligence. An understanding of this approach and of the shift from the traditional Bolam test is relevant to all medical practitioners, particularly in a climate that is increasingly litigious.

Benchmarking↗

Use of multidimensional assessment to provide testimony on behalf of residents in a life-care home.

City administrators challenged a life-care home's tax-exempt status. A successful, empirically-based case was made based on data collected by gerontological nurses using the Iowa Self-Assessment Inventory (ISAI) and related instruments (Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE], Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale [IADLS], and Physical Self-Maintenance Scale [PSMS]) to describe the life-care population. Testimony by gerontological nurses included comparisons between these life-care residents and statewide data on elderly individuals currently residing in nursing homes and in the community. The data they presented showed not only that this life-care home provided a high quality of life, but also saved society substantial amounts of money in government-funded services that would otherwise be provided to residents of this home. The judge ruled in favor of continuing tax-exempt status for this life-care home because credible evidence clearly demonstrated that taxpayer savings from the services provided to life-care home residents and the life-care commitment dramatically outweighed the taxpayer costs associated with lost tax revenues.

Aged↗

[Children as witnesses of violence: consequences for determining reliability].

For many years testimony by children was considered to be of little value. The authors of the present article do not share the view that the credibility of children should generally be questioned. Different investigations show that even young children are able to make forensically relevant depositions. The roles of developmental stage, memory and suggestibility of children are discussed in detail. A case report of a child who witnessed the murder of both parents demonstrates the importance of age-related aspects of emotional experience, development of memory and the ability of children to recall memories. Even at the first hearings it is important to establish a nonthreatening atmosphere in which the child can feel safe and protected. An experienced child and adolescent psychiatrist should be consulted early on.

Child↗

The psychiatrist's guide to right and wrong: Part III: Postpartum depression and the "appreciation" of wrongfulness.

Whether or not the psychiatrist testifies on the ultimate issue in insanity defense cases, it is critically important that he familiarize himself with the applicable legal standards and interpretations in order properly to relate his clinical findings to the relevant criteria for insanity and thereby enhance the probative value of his testimony. This is the third in a series of articles which attempts to explicate judicial and statutory standards of insanity and correlate them with the psychiatrist's findings of psychopathology. This article analyzes the Model Penal Code formulation of insanity, with special emphasis on the all important distinction between "know" and "appreciate." This formulation permits the defendant possessed of mere surface knowledge or cognition to be exculpated, requiring that he have a deeper affective appreciation of the legal and moral import of the conduct involved if he is to be held criminally responsible. The Model Penal Code approach more readily lends itself to application as a standard of responsibility in cases involving affective disorders. An important disorder within this group, postpartum depression, is discussed in the context of raising the insanity defense in a case of infanticide.

Adult↗