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Relative risk, risk difference and rate difference models for sparse stratified data: a pseudo likelihood approach.

We consider a relative risk and a risk difference model for binomial data, and a rate difference model for Poisson (person year) data. It is assumed that the data are stratified in a large number of small strata. If each stratum has its own parameter in the model, then, due to the large number of parameters, straightforward maximum likelihood leads to inconsistent estimates of the relevant parameters. By contrast to the logistic model, conditioning on the number of events per stratum does not help in eliminating the stratum nuisance parameters. We propose a pseudo likelihood method to overcome these consistency problems. The resulting pseudo maximum likelihood estimates can easily be computed with standard statistical software. Our approach gives a more general framework for the Mantel-Haenszel type estimators proposed in the literature. In the special case of a series of 2 x 2 tables, for the risk and rate difference models, our approach yields exactly these ad hoc Mantel-Haenszel estimators, while for the relative risk model it gives a close approximation of the Mantel-Haenszel relative risk estimator. For the regression models corresponding to the association measures relative risk, risk difference and rate difference, our method provides analogues of conditional logistic regression, which were not previously available.

Analysis of Variance↗

The effect of deprivation, age and sex on NHS Direct call rates.

BACKGROUND: The use of primary care services in the UK is traditionally high in deprived areas. There has been little research into the effect of deprivation on the uptake of NHS Direct, a national nurse-led health helpline. AIM: To explore the impact of deprivation, age and sex on call rates to two NHS Direct sites. DESIGN OF STUDY: Ecological study. SETTING: West Yorkshire and West Midlands NHS Direct sites. METHOD: Details of NHS Direct calls between July 2001 and January 2002 were linked to electoral wards and the Indices of Multiple Deprivation for 2000. Age-standardised call rates were calculated for five deprivation levels. Using a negative binomial regression model, West Yorkshire call rates were analysed by age group, sex, deprivation level and geographical location. Rates were mapped by ward for West Yorkshire NHS Direct. RESULTS: Six-monthly call rates were highest for children under 5 years of age (130 per 1000 population). The ratio of female to male calls (all ages) was 1.30 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.27 to 1.33), this ratio being highest for the 15-44 year age group (P < 0.001). For both West Yorkshire and West Midlands NHS Direct, call rates (all ages combined) were highest in areas within the middle of the range of deprivation. West Yorkshire call rates about those under 5 years of age were lower in the most deprived areas than in the least deprived areas (< 1 year, P = 0.06; 1-4 years, P = 0.03). For adults aged 15-64 years, call rates were significantly higher in the most deprived areas (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: This work supports previous research and shows that overall demand for NHS Direct is highest in areas where deprivation is at or just above the national average. Additionally, this study suggests that the effect of extreme deprivation appears to raise adult call rates but reduce rates of calls about children.

Adolescent↗

National Health Insurance and the antenatal care use: a case in Taiwan.

Many studies have found evidence for the importance of antenatal care on pregnancy outcomes. This paper focuses on the determinants of antenatal care use in Taiwan and provides a comparison of access to care before and after National Health Insurance (NHI) was implemented in 1995. A negative binomial model is applied to data from the 1989 and 1996 Taiwan Maternal and Infant Health Surveys to analyze antenatal care use. The results show that women in some situations had more antenatal care visits than average regardless of NHI implementation. These situations include: having a highly educated husband; gaining more weight than average during pregnancy; experiencing a first pregnancy; carrying twins or triplets; having care provided by a doctor rather than other caregivers; and switching to another health care facility during pregnancy. Regarding societal change, the trend toward delaying pregnancy is causing a change in care use. Additionally, three changes in care patterns after NHI are noteworthy. First, antenatal care visits at maternity clinics increased more than visits at hospitals. Second, before NHI's implementation, women who did blue-collar work or farm work sought care more frequently than housewives, but after NHI began government employees and businesswomen sought care more frequently. Third, antenatal care visits of mothers living in Taiwan's central area increased more than visits of those in the northern area. The expansion of medical care in aboriginal areas and outlying islands may prove to be one of NHI's best achievements.

Adult↗

The mixed effects of precipitation on traffic crashes.

PURPOSE: This paper investigates the relationship between precipitation and traffic crashes in the US during the period 1975-2000. Traffic crashes represent the leading cause of death and injury for young adults in the US, and the ninth leading cause of death for the overall population. Prior studies have found that precipitation raises the risk of traffic crashes significantly. METHODS: A negative binomial regression approach is employed. Two different units of analysis are examined: state-months and state-days. The sample includes all 48 contiguous states. RESULTS: A surprising negative and significant relationship between monthly precipitation and monthly fatal crashes is found. However, in the daily level analysis, a strong positive relationship is estimated, as in prior studies. The source of the contrasting results appears to be a substantial negative lagged effect of precipitation across days within a state-month. In other words, if it rained a lot yesterday, then on average, today there are fewer crashes. Additional analysis shows that the risk imposed by precipitation increases dramatically as the time since last precipitation increases. For example, 1cm of precipitation increases the fatal crash rate for a state-day by about 3% if exactly 2 days have passed since the last precipitation and by about 9% if more than 20 days have passed. This basic pattern holds for non-fatal crashes as well. CONCLUSIONS: The lagged effects of precipitation across days may be explained by the clearing of oil that accumulates on roads during dry periods or by the conditioning of people to drive more safely in wet conditions. Either way, policy interventions that prepare drivers more adequately for the risks of precipitation following dry periods are likely to be beneficial.

Accidents, Traffic↗

Attendance for general practitioner asthma care by children with moderate to severe asthma in Auckland, New Zealand.

Attendance for general practitioner (GP) care of childhood asthma varies widely in New Zealand (NZ). There is little current research to account for the variations, although groups such as Māori and Pacific peoples have traditionally faced barriers to accessing GP care. This paper aims to describe and account for attendance levels for GP asthma care among 6-9 year-olds with moderate to severe asthma in Auckland, NZ. During 2002, randomly selected schools identified all 6-9 year-olds with possible breathing problems. Completion of a questionnaire by each parent/guardian indicated which children had moderate to severe asthma, and what characteristics influenced their access to GP asthma care. A multilevel, negative binomial regression model (NBRM) was fitted to account for the number of reported GP visits for asthma, with adjustment for clustering within schools. Twenty-six schools (89.7 percent) identified 931 children with possible breathing problems. Useable questionnaires were returned to schools by 455 children (48.9 percent). Results indicated 209 children with moderate to severe asthma, almost one in every three reportedly making 5 or more GP visits for asthma in the previous year. Māori, Pacific and Asian children were disproportionately represented among these 'high attendees'. Low attendees (0-2 visits) were mainly NZ Europeans. The NBRM (n=155) showed that expected visits were increased by perceived need, ill-health, asthma severity and, in particular, Māori and Pacific child ethnicity. It may be that Māori and Pacific children no longer face significant barriers to accessing GP asthma care. However, more likely is that barriers apply only to accessing routine, preventative care, leading to poor asthma control, exacerbations requiring acute care, and paradoxically an increase in GP visits. That barriers may increase total numbers of visits challenges the assumption, for all health systems, that access can be defined in terms of barriers that must be overcome to obtain health care.

Asthma↗

Voluntary HIV counseling and testing acceptance, sexual risk behavior and HIV incidence in Rakai, Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the acceptance of voluntary HIV counseling and testing (VCT) and the effects of VCT on sexual risk behavior and HIV acquisition in Rakai, Uganda. METHODS: In a rural cohort, 10 694 consenting adults were interviewed, provided blood for HIV testing and were offered free VCT by community resident counselors. The proportions receiving VCT and the adjusted risk ratio (adj. RR) of VCT acceptance were estimated by log binomial regression. Risk behaviors and HIV incidence per 100 person-years (PY) in HIV-negative acceptors and non-acceptors of VCT were assessed prospectively. RESULTS: Although 93% initially requested HIV results, 62.2% subsequently accepted VCT. VCT acceptance was lower among persons with no prior VCT [Adj. RR = 0.88; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.85-0.90], individuals with primary education (adj. RR = 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90-0.99) or higher (adj. RR = 0.91; 95% CI, 0.87-0.97), individuals who were HIV-positive (adj. RR = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.68-0.76), and persons reporting condom use in the past 6 months (inconsistent users, adj. RR = 0.95; 95% CI, 0.90-0.99; consistent users, adj. RR = 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82-0.95). VCT acceptance was higher among the currently married (adj. RR = 1.14; 95% CI, 1.08-1.20) and previously married (adj. RR = 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04-1.18). Receipt of results was not significantly associated with age, gender, and self-perception of HIV risk. There were no significant differences in sexual risk behaviors, or in HIV incidence between acceptors (1.6/100 PY) and non-acceptors (1.4/100 PY) of VCT. CONCLUSION: In this rural cohort where VCT services are free and accessible, there is self-selection of individuals accepting VCT, and no impact of VCT on subsequent risk behaviors or HIV incidence.

Adolescent↗

Calculating the probability of rare events: why settle for an approximation?

OBJECTIVE: Health services researchers often need to compute the probability of observing a certain number of events when only a few such events are expected. Our objective is to show that the standard approaches (Poisson, binomial, and normal approximations) are inappropriate in such instances, and to suggest an alternative. DATA SOURCES: Patients undergoing cholecystectomy (34,234) in 465 California hospitals in 1983 are used to demonstrate the biases arising from various methods of calculating the probability of observing a given number of deaths in each hospital. Similar data from other procedures and diagnoses with lower and higher mortality rates are also used for illustration. STUDY DESIGN: The computational methods to derive probabilities using the Poisson, normal, simulation, and exact probabilities are discussed. Using a previously developed risk factor model, the probability of observing the actual number of deaths (or more) is calculated given the expectation of death for each patient in each hospital. Results for the four methods are compared, showing the types of random and systematic errors in the Poisson, normal, and simulation approaches. DATA COLLECTION: Routinely collected hospital discharge abstract data were provided by the California Office of Statewide Planning and Development. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Poisson and normal approximations are often biased substantially in calculating upper-tail p-values, especially when the expected number of adverse outcomes is less than five. Simulations allow unbiased calculations, and the degree of random error can be made arbitrarily small given enough trials. Exact calculations using a simple recursive algorithm can be done very efficiently on either a mainframe or personal computer. For example, the whole set of cholecystectomy patients can be assessed in less than 90 seconds on a Macintosh. CONCLUSIONS: Calculating the probability of observing a small number of events using standard approaches may result in substantial errors. The availability of a simple and inexpensive method of calculating these probabilities exactly can avoid these errors.

Bias↗

Genetic mapping and DNA sequence-based analysis of deleted regions on chromosome 16 involved in progression of bladder cancer from occult preneoplastic conditions to invasive disease.

Histologic and genetic mapping with 30 hypervariable markers mapped to chromosome 16 were performed on 234 DNA samples of five cystectomy specimens from patients with invasive bladder cancer. Allelic losses of individual markers were related to microscopically identified precursor conditions in the entire bladder mucosa and invasive cancer. Their significance for the development and progression of neoplasia from in situ preneoplastic conditions to invasive disease was analysed by the nearest neighbor algorithm and binomial maximum likelihood analysis. Using this approach we identified five distinct regions of allelic losses defined by their flanking markers and predicted size as follows. p13.3(D16S418-D16S406, 1.2 cM), p13.1(D16S748-D16S287, 12.9 cM), q12 1(D16S409-D16S514, 24.0 cM), q22.1 (D16S496-D16S515, 5.4 cM), and q24 (D16S507-D16S511, 5.9 cM and D16S402-D16S413, 17.4 cM). The regions mapping to p13.1 and q24 were involved in early intraurothelial phases of bladder neoplasia such as mild to moderate dysplasia. On the other hand the deleted region mapping to p13.3 was involved in progression of severe dysplasia/carcinoma in situ to invasive bladder cancer. Testing of markers that exhibited statistically significant LOH in relation to progression of neoplasia from precursor conditions to invasive cancer on 28 tumors and voided urine samples from 25 patients with bladder cancer revealed that q12.1 showed LOH in 46.4% of tumor and 32.0% of voided urine samples. The LOH of a single marker D16S541 could be detected in approximately 28% of tumors and 20% of voided urine samples of patients with bladder cancer. These data imply that the deleted region centered around marker D16S541 spanning approximately 10 cM and flanked by D16S409 and D16S415 contains a novel putative tumor suppressor gene or genes playing an important role in the development of human bladder cancer. To facilitate more precise positional mapping and identification of pathogenetically relevant genes, we analysed of human genome contig and sequence databases spanning the deleted regions. Multiple known candidate genes and several smaller gene-rich areas mapping to the target regions of chromosome 16 were identified.

Aged↗

Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory.

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states-perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of "excess" zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to "excess" zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed-and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros.

Accidents, Traffic↗