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[Forecast intervals of population size].

"This article describes a method for assessing a statistical confidence interval of future population size. The method is based on an autoregressive model of forecast errors of the population growth rate. An English-language version of this article is available upon request (address: Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, Department of Population Statistics, P.O. Box 959, 2270 AZ Voorburg)." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Demography↗

Migration, urbanization, resources and development.

The author adopts "Coale's scenario-building approach to focus on some of the demoeconomic consequences of rapid urbanization....[He describes] the construction and evolution of four alternative population scenarios and then [examines] the implications that these alternative trends in migration and fertility would have for Coale's three important population characteristics: the dependency burden, the growth rate of labor force 'eligibles,' and the density of the population."

Demography↗

Forecast of labour force in Poland to the year 2020: methodology and results.

"In 1995 the Labour Statistics Division of the Central Statistical Office (CSO) started methodological work on the preparation of a forecast of the labour force in Poland to the year 2020.... Variant ¿intermediate' assumes a slow reconstruction of the economic activity of population from the level of the period 1978-88 (census 1978 and census 1988). The main part of this ¿reconstruction' will take place in the years 1995-2010. The greatest anticipated changes concern youths (18-24 years), persons of immobility age (males 45-64 years and females 45-59 years) and the first groups of the retirement age. Variant ¿maximum' assumes that the anticipated ¿reconstruction' labour force participation rate will be faster (compared with variant ¿intermediate')."

Age Factors↗

Population scenarios for the European Economic Area: components of population growth.

"This article examines the individual contribution of the constituent components of population growth (fertility, mortality and net external migration) for the European Economic Area (EEA) and its countries. Section 2 describes the general outline of the scenarios for the countries of the EEA. Section 3 gives the main results for the EEA, whereas section 4 elaborates on the countries of the EEA."

Demography↗