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Response of microbial community composition and function to soil climate change.

Soil microbial communities mediate critical ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles. How microbial communities will respond to changes in vegetation and climate, however, are not well understood. We reciprocally transplanted soil cores from under oak canopies and adjacent open grasslands in a California oak-grassland ecosystem to determine how microbial communities respond to changes in the soil environment and the potential consequences for the cycling of carbon. Every 3 months for up to 2 years, we monitored microbial community composition using phospholipid fatty acid analysis (PLFA), microbial biomass, respiration rates, microbial enzyme activities, and the activity of microbial groups by quantifying (13)C uptake from a universal substrate (pyruvate) into PLFA biomarkers. Soil in the open grassland experienced higher maximum temperatures and lower soil water content than soil under the oak canopies. Soil microbial communities in soil under oak canopies were more sensitive to environmental change than those in adjacent soil from the open grassland. Oak canopy soil communities changed rapidly when cores were transplanted into the open grassland soil environment, but grassland soil communities did not change when transplanted into the oak canopy environment. Similarly, microbial biomass, enzyme activities, and microbial respiration decreased when microbial communities were transplanted from the oak canopy soils to the grassland environment, but not when the grassland communities were transplanted to the oak canopy environment. These data support the hypothesis that microbial community composition and function is altered when microbes are exposed to new extremes in environmental conditions; that is, environmental conditions outside of their "life history" envelopes.

Bacteria↗

Deriving grassland management factors for a carbon accounting method developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Grassland management affects soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and can be used to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. However, for a country to assess emission reductions due to grassland management, there must be an inventory method for estimating the change in SOC storage. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed a simple carbon accounting approach for this purpose, and here we derive new grassland management factors that represent the effect of changing management on carbon storage for this method. Our literature search identified 49 studies dealing with effects of management practices that either degraded or improved conditions relative to nominally managed grasslands. On average, degradation reduced SOC storage to 95% +/- 0.06 and 97% +/- 0.05 of carbon stored under nominal conditions in temperate and tropical regions, respectively. In contrast, improving grasslands with a single management activity enhanced SOC storage by 14% +/- 0.06 and 17% +/- 0.05 in temperate and tropical regions, respectively, and with an additional improvement(s), storage increased by another 11% +/- 0.04. We applied the newly derived factor coefficients to analyze C sequestration potential for managed grasslands in the U.S., and found that over a 20-year period changing management could sequester from 5 to 142 Tg C yr(-1) or 0.1 to 0.9 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1), depending on the level of change. This analysis provides revised factor coefficients for the IPCC method that can be used to estimate impacts of management; it also provides a methodological framework for countries to derive factor coefficients specific to conditions in their region.

Carbon↗

The carbon charging of pines at the climatic treeline: a global comparison.

The carbon charging of pines across the treeline ecotone of three different climatic zones (Mexico 19 degrees N Pinus hartwegii, Swiss Alps 46 degrees N P. cembra and northern Sweden 68 degrees N P. sylvestris) was analyzed, to test whether a low-temperature-driven carbon shortage can explain high-elevation tree limits, and whether the length of the growing season affects the trees' carbon balance. We quantified the concentrations of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) and lipids (acylglycerols) in all tree organs at three dates during the growing seasons across elevational transects from the upper end of the closed, tall forest (timberline) to the uppermost location where groups of trees > or =3 m in height occur (treeline). Mean ground temperatures during the growing season at the treelines were similar (6.1+/-0.7 degrees C) irrespective of latitude. Across the individual transects, the concentrations of NSC and lipids increased with elevation in all organs. By the end of the growing season, all three species had very similar total mobile carbon (TMC) concentrations at the treeline (ca. 6% TMC in the aboveground dry biomass), suggesting no influence of the length of the growing season on tree carbon charging. At a temperate lowland reference site P. sylvestris reached only ca. 4% TMC in the aboveground dry biomass, with the 2% difference largely explained by higher lipid concentrations of treeline pines. We conclude that carbon availability is unlikely to be the cause of the altitudinal tree limit. It seems rather that low temperatures directly affect sink activity at the treeline, with surplus carbon stored in osmotically inactive compounds.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

Demographic dynamics of the afro-tropical pig-nosed frog, Hemisus marmoratus: effects of climate and predation on survival and recruitment.

We studied the population ecology of the West African pig-nosed frog, Hemisus marmoratus, to understand the relative contributions of adult survival and recruitment to population growth rate in savannah frogs using mark-recapture modelling. We marked a total of 821 adult frogs over 6 years and recaptured 74 at least once between years. Between-year adult survival was sex-specific and varied between 0.06 and 0.53 for males and 0.07-0.41 for females. Adult survival was significantly associated with annual rainfall and is cause for concern if rainfall declines further in the study region as predicted by changes in the global climate. There was a significant interaction between rainfall and sex with dry weather having a stronger negative effect on males than females. Pig-nosed frogs experienced boom and bust years with a single decline more dramatic than increases. Recruitment (in situ and immigration; 0.67-0.88) was substantially more important than adult survival (0.12-0.33) in determining realised population growth. In situ recruitment was highly variable between years with 1-36% of eggs and tadpoles released by females into the pond surviving to metamorphosis. Years of low tadpole survival were associated with high numbers of predatory tortoises. Thus, like other pond-breeding anurans, pig-nosed frogs showed highly variable juvenile recruitment, low adult survival and density-independent effects on population growth by predators and weather.

Animals↗

Temporal variability in (13)C of respired CO(2) in a pine and a hardwood forest subject to similar climatic conditions.

Temporal variability in the (13)C of foliage (delta(13)C(F)), soil (delta(13)C(S)) and ecosystem (delta(13)C(R)) respired CO(2) was contrasted between a 17.2-m tall evenly aged loblolly pine forest and a 35-m tall unevenly aged mature second growth mixed broadleaf deciduous forest in North Carolina, USA, over a 2-year period. The two forests are located at the Duke Forest within a kilometer of each other and are subject to identical climate and have similar soil types. The delta(13)C(F), collected just prior to dawn, was primarily controlled by the time-lagged vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in both stands; it was used for calculating the ratio of intercellular to ambient CO(2) ( Ci/ Ca). A remarkable similarity was observed in the relationship between Ci/ Ca and time-lagged VPD in these two forests despite large differences in hydraulic characteristics. This similarity emerged as a result of physiological adjustments that compensated for differences in plant hydraulic characteristics, as predicted by a recently proposed equilibrium hypothesis, and has implications to ecophysiological models. We found that in the broadleaf forest, the delta(13)C of forest floor CO(2) efflux dominated the delta(13)C(R), while in the younger pine forest, the delta(13)C of foliage respired CO(2) dominated delta(13)C(R). This dependence resulted in a more variable delta(13)C(R) in the pine forest when compared to the broadleaf forest due to the larger photosynthetic contribution. Given the sensitivity of the atmospheric inversion models to delta(13)C(R), the results demonstrate that these models could be improved by accounting for stand characteristics, in addition to previously recognized effects of moisture availability, when estimating delta(13)C(R).

Carbon Dioxide↗

The influence of climate on the timing and rate of spring bird migration.

Ecological processes are changing in response to climatic warming. Birds, in particular, have been documented to arrive and breed earlier in spring and this has been attributed to elevated spring temperatures. It is not clear, however, how long-distance migratory birds that overwinter thousands of kilometers to the south in the tropics cue into changes in temperature or plant phenology on northern breeding areas. We explored the relationships between the timing and rate of spring migration of long-distance migratory birds, and variables such as temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and plant phenology, using mist net capture data from three ringing stations in North America over a 40-year period. Mean April/May temperatures in eastern North America varied over a 5 degrees C range, but with no significant trend during this period. Similarly, we found few significant trends toward earlier median capture dates of birds. Median capture dates were not related to the NAO, but were inversely correlated to spring temperatures for almost all species. For every 1 degrees C increase in spring temperature, median capture dates of migratory birds averaged, across species, one day earlier. Lilac (Syringa vulgaris) budburst, however, averaged 3 days earlier for every 1 degrees C increase in spring temperature, suggesting that the impact of temperature on plant phenology is three times greater than on bird phenology. To address whether migratory birds adjust their rate of northward migration to changes in temperature, we compared median capture dates for 15 species between a ringing station on the Gulf Coast of Louisiana in the southern USA with two stations approximately 2,500 km to the north. The interval between median capture dates in Louisiana and at the other two ringing stations was inversely correlated with temperature, with an average interval of 22 days, that decreased by 0.8 days per 1 degrees C increase in temperature. Our results suggest that, although the onset of migration may be determined endogenously, the timing of migration is flexible and can be adjusted in response to variation in weather and/or phenology along migration routes.

Animal Migration↗

Climatic influences on net ecosystem CO2 exchange during the transition from wintertime carbon source to springtime carbon sink in a high-elevation, subalpine forest.

The transition between wintertime net carbon loss and springtime net carbon assimilation has an important role in controlling the annual rate of carbon uptake in coniferous forest ecosystems. We studied the contributions of springtime carbon assimilation to the total annual rate of carbon uptake and the processes involved in the winter-to-spring transition across a range of scales from ecosystem CO2 fluxes to chloroplast photochemistry in a coniferous, subalpine forest. We observed numerous initiations and reversals in the recovery of photosynthetic CO2 uptake during the initial phase of springtime recovery in response to the passage of alternating warm- and cold-weather systems. Full recovery of ecosystem carbon uptake, whereby the 24-h cumulative sum of NEE (NEEdaily) was consistently negative, did not occur until 3-4 weeks after the first signs of photosynthetic recovery. A key event that preceded full recovery was the occurrence of isothermality in the vertical profile of snow temperature across the snow pack; thus, providing consistent daytime percolation of melted snow water through the snow pack. Interannual variation in the cumulative annual NEE (NEEannual) was mostly explained by variation in NEE during the snow-melt period (NEEsnow-melt), not variation in NEE during the snow-free part of the growing season (NEEsnow-free). NEEsnow-melt was highest in those years when the snow melt occurred later in the spring, leading us to conclude that in this ecosystem, years with earlier springs are characterized by lower rates of NEEannual, a conclusion that contrasts with those from past studies in deciduous forest ecosystems. Using studies on isolated branches we showed that the recovery of photosynthesis occurred through a series of coordinated physiological and biochemical events. Increasing air temperatures initiated recovery through the upregulation of PSII electron transport caused in part by disengagement of thermal energy dissipation by the carotenoid, zeaxanthin. The availability of liquid water permitted a slightly slower recovery phase involving increased stomatal conductance. The most rate-limiting step in the recovery process was an increase in the capacity for the needles to use intercellular CO2, presumably due to slow recovery of Rubisco activity. Interspecific differences were observed in the timing of photosynthetic recovery for the dominant tree species. The results of our study provide (1) a context for springtime CO2 uptake within the broader perspective of the annual carbon budget in this subalpine forest, and (2) a mechanistic explanation across a range of scales for the coupling between springtime climate and the carbon cycle of high-elevation coniferous forest ecosystems.

Carbon↗

Density, climate and varying return points: an analysis of long-term population fluctuations in the threatened European tree frog.

Experimental research has identified many putative agents of amphibian decline, yet the population-level consequences of these agents remain unknown, owing to lack of information on compensatory density dependence in natural populations. Here, we investigate the relative importance of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (climatic) factors impacting the dynamics of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) population over 22 years. A combination of log-linear density dependence and rainfall (with a 2-year time lag corresponding to development time) explain 75% of the variance in the rate of increase. Such fluctuations around a variable return point might be responsible for the seemingly erratic demography and disequilibrium dynamics of many amphibian populations.

Animals↗

Climate change and condition of herring (Clupea harengus) explain long-term trends in extent of skipped reproduction.

It is commonly assumed that iteroparous fish, once mature, normally reproduce in all consecutive seasons. Recent work has suggested, however, that in Norwegian spring-spawning herring-a population that undertakes extensive spawning migrations-almost one in two adults may skip their second spawning migration. Why should herring not return to spawn the year after first spawning, but instead wait an extra year? For herring, participation in distant, energetically costly, and risky spawning migrations will only pay off in terms of fitness if individuals are sufficiently large, and in sufficient condition, to both successfully migrate and spawn. Changes in the environment and individual condition should therefore affect the likelihood of skipped spawning. This paper describes long-term changes in the extent to which the second reproductive season is skipped in this herring population. These are shown to be linked to the size and condition of herring as first-time spawners, and to climatic factors possibly related to food availability. The findings corroborate the hypothesis that skipped reproduction results from trade-offs between current and future reproduction, growth and survival.

Animals↗

Climate factors influencing bacterial count in background air samples.

Total (as opposed to culturable) bacterial number counts are reported for four sites in the United Kingdom measured during campaigns over four separate seasons. These are interpreted in relation to simple climatic factors, i.e. temperature, wind speed and wind direction. Temperature has a marked effect at all four sites with data for a rural coastal site conforming best to a simple exponential model. Data for the other rural and urban locations show a baseline similar to that determined at the coastal rural location, but with some very significant positive excursions. The temperature dependence of bacterial number is found to conform to that typical of bacterial growth rates. At the coastal rural location, bacterial numbers normalised for temperature show no dependence on wind speed whilst at the inland sites there is a decrease with increasing wind speed of the form expected for a large area source. Only one site appeared to show a systematic relationship of bacterial concentrations to wind direction that being a site in the suburbs of Birmingham with highest number concentrations observed on a wind sector approaching from the city centre. PCR techniques have been used to identify predominant types of bacteria and results are presented which show that Bacillus was the dominant genus observed at the three inland sites during the winter and summer seasons. Pseudomonas appeared with comparable frequency at certain sites and seasons. There was in general a greater diversity of bacteria at the coastal site than at the inland sites.

Air Microbiology↗

The use of discriminant analysis and neural networks to forecast the severity of the Poaceae pollen season in a region with a typical Mediterranean climate.

Biological particles in the air such as pollen grains can cause environmental problems in the allergic population. Medical studies report that a prior knowledge of pollen season severity can be useful in the management of pollen-related diseases. The aim of this work was to forecast the severity of the Poaceae pollen season by using weather parameters prior to the pollen season. To carry out the study a historical database of 21 years of pollen and meteorological data was used. First, the years were grouped into classes by using cluster analysis. As a result of the grouping, the 21 years were divided into 3 classes according to their potential allergenic load. Pre-season meteorological variables were used, as well as a series of characteristics related to the pollen season. When considering pre-season meteorological variables, winter variables were separated from early spring variables due to the nature of the Mediterranean climate. Second, a neural network model as well as a discriminant linear analysis were built to forecast Poaceae pollen season severity, according to the three classes previously defined. The neural network yielded better results than linear models. In conclusion, neural network models could have a high applicability in the area of prevention, as the allergenic potential of a year can be determined with a high degree of reliability, based on a series of meteorological values accumulated prior to the pollen season.

Climate↗

Influence of weather and climate on subjective symptom intensity in atopic eczema.

The frequent clinical observation that the course of atopic eczema, a skin disease involving a disturbed cutaneous barrier function, is influenced by climate and weather motivated us to analyse these relationships biometrically. In the Swiss high-mountain area of Davos the intensity of itching experienced by patients with atopic eczema was evaluated and compared to 15 single meteorological variables recorded daily during an entire 7-year observation period. By means of univariate analyses and multiple regressions, itch intensity was found to be correlated with some meteorological variables. A clear-cut inverse correlation exists with air temperature (coefficient of correlation: -0.235, P < 0.001), but the effects of water vapour pressure, air pressure and hours of sunshine are less pronounced. The results show that itching in atopic eczema is significantly dependent on meteorological conditions. The data suggest that, in patients with atopic eczema, a certain range of thermo-hygric atmospheric conditions with a balance of heat and water loss on the skin surface is essential for the skin to feel comfortable.

Adolescent↗

Climatic controls of the cool human thermal sensation in a summertime onshore wind.

Afternoon observations in summer comparing shoreline with inland atmospheric conditions were made during onshore winds at Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. The onshore wind came from a cool water surface. Mean monthly water temperatures near to shore were between 11 and 11.5 degrees C. The onshore wind brought lower air, ground surface radiant and sky radiant temperatures; lower humidity and greater wind speed. All of these combine to produce a cooler human environment at the shoreline than inland. The relative importance of climatic elements in producing the cooler environment was assessed using sensitivity analyses with eight different human thermal exchange models/indices. Air temperature and wind speed had the greatest effect, followed by ground surface radiant temperature, sky radiant temperature and humidity. Wind speed is the most practical element to consider when trying to maximize human comfort along the shoreline.

British Columbia↗

Association of influenza epidemics with global climate variability.

The reasons for the seasonality and annual changes in the impact of influenza epidemics remain poorly understood. We investigated the covariations between a major component of climate, namely the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and indicators of the impact of influenza, as measured by morbidity, excess mortality and viral subtypes collected in France during the period 1971-2002. We show that both the circulating subtype and the magnitude of ENSO are associated with the impact of influenza epidemics. Recognition of this association could lead to better understanding of the mechanisms of emergence of influenza epidemics.

Analysis of Variance↗

Temperature measurement and stratification in facultative waste stabilisation ponds in the UK climate.

Temperature measurements were taken at three pilot-scale facultative ponds located at Esholt wastewater treatment works in West Yorkshire, UK over two one-year periods. The measurements were taken at different depths using a technology called Thermochron iButton. The iButton readings were compared with temperature measurements taken by a YSI sonde probe and maximum/minimum thermometers: they were found to be within 1 .C. In the temperature range 3.18 .C the mean weekly and monthly air temperatures were found to be good predictors for the mean weekly and monthly pond water-column temperatures. The level of stratification in the ponds under UK climatic conditions was assessed; the data revealed that the ponds remained thermally stratified for significant periods during the year despite their shallow depth.

Climate↗

Use of two types of estradiol-releasing skin patches for menopausal patients in a tropical climate.

As part of a program to evaluate nonoral routes for delivery of estrogen replacement therapy at the National University Hospital, Singapore, we assessed two different 50 micrograms estradiol patches. The first study (patch A) was terminated because of a high rate of skin reactions. Tests of the components of this patch identified the alcohol carrier as the cause of these reactions when combined with an occlusive membrane in the tropical Singapore climate. A subsequent clinical trial with 21 female subjects was undertaken with a different 50 micrograms estradiol patch (patch B). Twenty patients completed the 6-month study. Patch B was as effective as patch A, caused fewer skin reactions, and adhered better.

Administration, Cutaneous↗

CO2 condensation and the climate of early Mars.

A one-dimensional, radiative-convective climate model was used to reexamine the question of whether early Mars could have been kept warm by the greenhouse effect of a dense, CO2 atmosphere. The new model differs from previous models by considering the influence of CO2 clouds on the convective lapse rate and on the the planetary radiation budget. Condensation of CO2 decreases the lapse rate and, hence, reduces the magnitude of the greenhouse effect. This phenomenon becomes increasingly important at low solar luminosities and may preclude warm (0 degree C), globally averaged surface temperatures prior to approximately 2 billion years ago unless other greenhouse gases were present in addition to CO2 and H2O. Alternative mechanisms for warming early Mars and explaining channel formation are discussed.

Atmosphere↗

Climate and admissions for mania in the tropics.

Seasonality of admissions for mania has been commonly reported. Most reports are from temperature zones. We analyzed admissions for mania covering a 9 year period and looked for any seasonal trends using existing methods. No seasonal variation was found. The hospital lies in the tropical zone with a relatively constant climate. This may influence the seasonal pattern of relapses in affective disorder.

Adult↗