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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
PubMed1999

Contribution of trends in survival and coronary-event rates to changes in coronary heart disease mortality: 10-year results from 37 WHO MONICA project populations. Monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: The WHO MONICA (monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease) Project monitored, from the early 1980s, trends over 10 years in coronary heart disease (CHD) across 37 populations in 21 countries. We aimed to validate trends in mortality, partitioning responsibility between changing coronary-event rates and changing survival. METHODS: Registers identified non-fatal definite myocardial infarction and definite, possible, or unclassifiable coronary deaths in men and women aged 35-64 years, followed up for 28 days in or out of hospital. We calculated rates from population denominators to estimate trends in age-standardised rates and case fatality (percentage of 28-day fatalities=[100-survival percentage]). FINDINGS: During 371 population-years, 166,000 events were registered. Official CHD mortality rates, based on death certification, fell (annual changes: men -4.0% [range -10.8 to 3.2]; women -4.0% [-12.7 to 3.0]). By MONICA criteria, CHD mortality rates were higher, but fell less (-2.7% [-8.0 to 4.2] and -2.1% [-8.5 to 4.1]). Changes in non-fatal rates were smaller (-2.1%, [-6.9 to 2.8] and -0.8% [-9.8 to 6.8]). MONICA coronary-event rates (fatal and non-fatal combined) fell more (-2.1% [-6.5 to 2.8] and -1.4% [-6.7 to 2.8]) than case fatality (-0.6% [-4.2 to 3.1] and -0.8% [-4.8 to 2.9]). Contribution to changing CHD mortality varied, but in populations in which mortality decreased, coronary-event rates contributed two thirds and case fatality one third. INTERPRETATION: Over the decade studied, the 37 populations in the WHO MONICA Project showed substantial contributions from changes in survival, but the major determinant of decline in CHD mortality is whatever drives changing coronary-event rates.

Adult↗
PubMed1992

The ABS population projections: overview and evaluation.

"This paper provides a brief history of the ABS [Australian Bureau of Statistics] projection [service] in the context of its role as the central statistical agency in Australia. It also presents an overview of the methodology used for generating the projections and details the procedures used for compiling the various components of change incorporated in the projections. The accuracy of the ABS past projections is assessed by comparing their results, both at the national and state/territory levels, with corresponding estimated resident population figures. The paper also describes the range of projection services currently provided by the ABS, lists present unmet needs and indicates some of the developments likely to occur in the future in satisfying unmet demand, consolidation of existing services and dissemination of output." The evaluation concerns the period from 1978 to the present.

Australia↗
PubMed1999

Diencephalic neuronal populations projecting axons into the basal plate in a lizard (Gallotia galloti).

Lizard diencephalic populations sending axons into the basal plate were studied by the in vitro HRP technique in the lizard Gallotia. Retrograde labeled cells were concentrated in distinct neuronal groups within alar plates of prosomeres p1 and p3, whereas the alar plate of p2 was poorly labeled. Efferent fibers from alar p1 and p3 populations entered the basal plate of the diencephalon along topologically dorsoventral courses, bifurcating thereafter into longitudinal ascending (rostral) and descending (caudal) trajectories. Thus, diencephalic segments p1 and p3 have alar cell populations contributing to the longitudinal premotor connectivity of the neural axis , whereas the alar p2 segment projects via the fasciculus retroflexus, the efferent tract of the epithalamus. However, the axons from the habenular complex bifurcate within or adjacent to the floor plate and not within the basal plate.

Animals↗
PubMed1992

The Victorian population projection framework.

"The Victorian Department of the Treasury has responsibility for preparation of demographic forecasts for use by state government departments and agencies. This paper provides a detailed description of the projection system and models developed by Treasury to produce population and household forecasts for the state, statistical divisions and Statistical Local Areas of Victoria [Australia]. Particular emphasis is given to use of a 'tops down' approach to integrate projections at different geographic levels, methods of reconciling forecasts of household growth with land supply and techniques used to project the inter-SLA migration flows in a multi-regional cohort-component framework."

Agriculture↗
PubMed1989

Active life among the elderly in the United States: multistate life-table estimates and population projections.

Calculations of multistate life expectancy not only measure how long a population may live beyond a certain age, but also what fractions of this continuing lifetime will be spent in an independent or dependent status. Many Americans aged 70 and over are leading long, active lives; large numbers of individuals who become dependent, moreover, do so temporarily and return to independent status. Men and women have disparate total and active life expectancies, however, reflecting differential survival patterns and varying rates of transition among statuses. Policy makers must consider the increased size of the future elderly population, and changes in its age composition and functional status, when planning relevant health services.

Activities of Daily Living↗
PubMed2000

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations.

BACKGROUND: From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates across the populations. METHODS: In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. FINDINGS: Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, bodymass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. INTERPRETATION: Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Adult↗