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Missing covariates in longitudinal data with informative dropouts: bias analysis and inference.

We consider estimation in generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) for longitudinal data with informative dropouts. At the time a unit drops out, time-varying covariates are often unobserved in addition to the missing outcome. However, existing informative dropout models typically require covariates to be completely observed. This assumption is not realistic in the presence of time-varying covariates. In this article, we first study the asymptotic bias that would result from applying existing methods, where missing time-varying covariates are handled using naive approaches, which include: (1) using only baseline values; (2) carrying forward the last observation; and (3) assuming the missing data are ignorable. Our asymptotic bias analysis shows that these naive approaches yield inconsistent estimators of model parameters. We next propose a selection/transition model that allows covariates to be missing in addition to the outcome variable at the time of dropout. The EM algorithm is used for inference in the proposed model. Data from a longitudinal study of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women are used to illustrate the methodology.

Algorithms↗

Follow-up adjustment of outpatient dropouts.

This study assesses the post-therapy adjustment of outpatient dropouts by investigating the relationship between termination status, number of visits attended, and pretreatment and follow-up symptom levels. Dropouts who attended only one or two sessions had extremely poor adjustment at follow-up; later dropouts were improved at follow-up, though their absolute level of adjustment was inferior to that of the appropriate terminators.

Adult↗

Follow-up of postsecondary-age rural learning disabled graduates and dropouts.

This article reports the dropout rates, basic skills competency levels, and employment status of a group of semi-rural learning disabled postsecondary-age youth and a control group of nonlearning disabled same-age peers. Findings indicated significantly higher dropout rates and significantly lower basic skills competency levels among learning disabled youth. Learning disabled graduates and dropouts were not different in how they fared in the employment market for the group, nor were they different compared to peers. Educational implications of these findings and future suggestions for follow-up research are discussed.

Achievement↗

The identification of high-school dropouts identified as learning disabled: evaluating the utility of a discriminant analysis function.

This study examined the utility of a linear discriminant function to distinguish between students identified as learning disabled (LD) who had either been released from high school under codes suggestive of school dropout (n = 213) or graduation (n = 92). The discriminant function was comprised of six variables--student ethnicity, reading ability, family intactness, family socioeconomic status, school transfers, and school-initiated interruptions. The analysis determined that differences between the LD dropout sample and LD graduate sample were sufficient to allow for a discrimination between the groups. On the basis of group differences the discriminant function that was constructed correctly classified 83% of the school dropouts and 46% of the school graduates, for an overall 73% accuracy rate. Those factors contributing most to the function were the number of district-initiated interruptions, school transfers, and family intactness. Based on the findings, implications for school districts and future research are noted.

Achievement↗

Suicidality, school dropout, and reading problems among adolescents.

The purpose of this study was to examine the risk of suicidal ideation and suicide attempts and school dropout among youth with poor reading in comparison to youth with typical reading (n = 188) recruited from public schools at the age of 15. In a prospective naturalistic study, youth and parents participated in repeated research assessments to obtain information about suicide ideation and attempts, psychiatric and sociodemographic variables, and school dropout. Youth with poor reading ability were more likely to experience suicidal ideation or attempts and more likely to drop out of school than youth with typical reading, even after controlling for sociodemographic and psychiatric variables. Suicidality and school dropout were strongly associated with each other. Prevention efforts should focus on better understanding the relationship between these outcomes, as well as on the developmental paths leading up to these behaviors among youth with reading difficulties.

Adolescent↗

The influence of high school dropout on substance use among African American youth.

The role of high school dropout in the onset and rapid escalation of substance use was investigated with 1,762 African American youth participating in the 1990 and 1992 follow-ups of the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88). In 1990, all youth were students; most were in the 10th grade and approximately 16 years old. Path analysis models were used to examine dropout's unique contribution to substance use and its mediational effect on the association of prior problem behavior with later substance use. Compared with students, dropout youth were 1.6 times more likely to smoke cigarettes and 1.3 times more likely to smoke marijuana. Partial mediational effects emerged for problem behavior and use of cigarettes and marijuana.

Adolescent↗

Clinical trial response and dropout rates with olanzapine versus risperidone.

BACKGROUND: In schizophrenia, comparing treatment dropouts between olanzapine and risperidone can be useful to better understand their relative effectiveness. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the differences in the rates of dropout from clinical trials and response between these 2 antipsychotics. METHODS: Literature search was based on MEDLINE (1966-May 2002). Analysis 1 included 4 randomized studies (838 patients), analysis 2 included 2 randomized studies (n = 716), and analysis 3 assessed 5 clinical studies for olanzapine (n = 928) and 3 for risperidone (n = 290). Odds ratios were estimated by the fixed-effect model. RESULTS: The risk of treatment discontinuation (analysis 1) was significantly greater for risperidone than for olanzapine (42% vs. 33%, respectively). The response rates were identical for the 2 drugs (analysis 2). A slightly better pattern of maintenance of response was found for olanzapine (analysis 3). CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of dropout and maintenance of remission seems to be better controlled for olanzapine than for risperidone.

Antipsychotic Agents↗

Pregnancy-related dropouts and gender inequality in education: a life-table approach and application to Cameroon.

In this study, I used a life-table approach to estimate how much hypothetical reductions in pregnancy-related dropouts would help close the gender gap in educational attainment. Using the schooling histories of 6,686 pupils, I partitioned Cameroon's gender gap in education into "pregnancy-related" and "non-pregnancy-related" components and simulated the impact of reductions in pregnancy-related dropouts on this gap. The results suggest that such reductions would have substantial payoffs in this setting, but payoffs would be the greatest where societies also address gender inequities before puberty and outside the realm of pregnancy. Reductions in pregnancy-related dropouts complement but do not replace efforts to reduce gender discrimination in schooling. Recent data from Demographic and Health Surveys should make it possible to extend this analysis to other countries.

Adolescent↗

Predictors of outcome for patients with substance-use disorders five years after treatment dropout.

OBJECTIVE: Few studies focus on the outcome of patients after they drop out of substance-use disorder (SUD) treatment, and there appear to be no prior studies of the long-term outcomes of these patients. The aim of this study is to determine how well such patients do after dropping out of treatment and to identify predictors of differential outcomes. METHOD: Patients in 15 residential SUD treatment programs were assessed at treatment entry and at 5-year follow-up on their frequency and severity of substance use, expectancies and beliefs about substance use, and social resources and stressors. Patients who dropped out and stayed out of treatment (n = 193) were compared with those who completed treatment (n = 3,204). Predictors of 5-year SUD problems among dropouts were identified. RESULTS: In general, dropouts and treatment completers did not differ significantly on their levels of SUD problems at 5 years. At baseline, patients who dropped out reported more involvement in 12-step organizations and greater cognitive impairment and more closely identified with the label "drug addict" than "alcoholic." Lower severity of SUD, lower self-efficacy, fewer positive substance- use expectancies, and less stress from social networks predicted fewer SUD problems at 5 years among dropouts. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to focusing on substance use, providers should address the adequacy of patients' social support and counter positive substance-use expectancies at the earliest stages of treatment before patients drop out.

Adult↗

Factors associated with psychiatric treatment dropout in a mental health reference center, Belo Horizonte.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize an outpatient public referral center for mental health and to assess factors associated with treatment dropout. METHODS: A non-concurrent prospective study was undertaken to review 295 patient files. Patients, whose first consultation took place between January and December 1997, were followed-up for at least four months until April 1998. Patients were considered as having abandoned their treatment when, following a recommendation for at least a second visit, they did not return within four months after the first consultation. Social, demographic and clinical variables were compared to verify possible factors associated with dropout of treatment. Statistical analysis was performed using relative hazard (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) estimated by the Cox Regression Model. RESULTS: Cumulative incidence of treatment dropout was 39.2% while multivariate analysis indicated that the following characteristics were statistically associated with treatment interruption: to live outside the referral area (RR = 1.95), no history of previous psychiatric hospitalizations (RR = 1.88), alcohol or drug use at admission (RR = 1.72), spontaneous demand to the service (RR = 2.12), lack of bus-passes (RR = 3.68) and to have less than four clinical appointments (RR = 7.31). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that services should be aware of the high incidence of treatment interruption, especially among those with no history of previous psychiatric hospitalizations and with less institutional bonds. This may indicate that mental health services should develop and implement public policies targeted at this population.

Adult↗

Differences between completers and early dropouts from 2 HIV intervention trials: a health belief approach to understanding prevention program attrition.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to identify factors predicting program attrition among participants in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk reduction trials. METHODS: Participants were gay/bisexual men and severely mentally ill adults recruited to take part in HIV risk reduction small-group interventions. Program completers were compared with participants who were assessed at baseline but then failed to attend any sessions. The health belief model provided a framework for selection of possible predictors of program attrition. RESULTS: Younger age was associated with early dropout in both samples. Other predictors among gay/bisexual men included involvement in an exclusive sexual relationship, minority ethnicity, injection drug use, and higher perceived severity of AIDS. Severely mentally ill dropouts were less knowledgeable about safer sex methods and more likely to hold positive outcome expectancies for condom use. CONCLUSIONS: Evaluation of intervention effectiveness among vulnerable population segments is threatened if there is selective attrition. Better methods are needed to attract and maintain participation in HIV prevention programs. Alternatively, wider application of "intention to treat" analysis of intervention outcomes is recommended to minimize selection bias due to program dropout.

Adult↗

School dropout and injecting drug use in a national sample of white non-Hispanic American adults.

In this study we sought to extend our previous finding of an association between school dropout and injecting drug use (IDU) among African Americans by testing the association in a sample of White non-Hispanic Americans. A nationally representative sample of White non-Hispanic Americans age eighteen years and older was drawn from public use data files of the 1995-1996 National Household Surveys on Drug Abuse (NHSDA). Adults with a self-report history of IDU were identified, and were matched to non-IDU adults in the same neighborhoods of residence. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the association between dropping out of high school and the occurrence of IDU. White non-Hispanic American high school dropouts were more likely than high school graduates to have injected a drug at least once. The findings of this research on non-Hispanic Whites are generally consistent with our earlier evidence on the association between educational status and a history of IDU among African-American adults. School dropout prevention programs may merit attention in an overall strategy of preventing injecting drug use and HIV/AIDS.

Adult↗

Influence of alcohol and drug use on AIDS risk behavior among youth in dropout prevention.

Youth enrolled in dropout prevention and alternative school programs engage in a number of high risk behaviors in greater numbers than those in traditional school settings [1, 2]. However, data on alcohol and drug use influences and risky sexual behavior are often not collected or reported among these youth due to small enrollments and rapid turnover. In this study alcohol and drug use and sexual behaviors were surveyed among 212 youth in dropout prevention. A risk profile score for HIV/AIDS was developed and the contribution of alcohol and drug use to HIV/AIDS risk was determined. Results showed that use of alcohol and drugs and age of sexual initiation were significantly associated with a high risk profile score. Of sexually active youth, 28 percent reported using alcohol or drugs prior to having sexual intercourse and more than half reported not using condoms during their last sexual experience. Males were more likely than females to use alcohol and drugs before having sex, and were more likely to have had sex with two or more partners. Findings from this study suggest that among youth in dropout prevention, the association of alcohol and drug use to HIV/AIDS risk is significant and that prevention programs need to target alcohol and drug use as important influences on risky sexual behavior.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

A follow-up study of dropouts from a methadone maintenance program.

This is a follow-up study of 112 dropouts from one of the largest methadone maintenance programs in New York City. It was found that 47% of the sample were on methadone at other programs at the time of the follow-up interviews, 26% were drug-free, 16% were using drugs, and 11% were in institutions. However, because of certain sample biases, inferences to the total population of dropouts were made through weighted estimates. A more accurate, although approximated, percentage distribution of the outcomes is that 20% of all dropouts were on methadone at other programs, 43% were drug-free, 23% were using heroin again, and 14% were in institutions. Some of the implications of these findings are discussed.

Adult↗

Frontalis EMG of dropouts from inpatient treatment for alcoholism.

Nineteen of 61 male alcoholic inpatients who had agreed to participate in a research study requiring them to undergo 20 electromyographic (EMG) biofeedback sessions left the treatment center before completion of the treatment program. Dropouts and remainers did not differ in initial EMG levels but early dropouts had significantly higher levels than late dropouts. There was a statistically significant difference in intellectual and educational level in favor of the remainers. Implications for treatment planning are discussed.

Adult↗

Can personality tests predict treatment dropouts?

Patients who completed a detoxification/rehabilitation drug abuse program were compared with program dropouts on a new personality instrument, the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory. No differences were found between groups on any of the 20 comparison variables, replicating previous results with the MMPI. Data are presented showing that discriminant function predictors lose their potency within 3 years and maybe sooner. It is concluded that clinical judgments must form the basis of predicting dropouts until it can be demonstrated that personality tests can make reliable predictions on treatment dropouts.

Adult↗

The use of a structured assessment interview as an intervention to reduce dropout rates in outpatient relapse prevention groups for "problem" drinkers.

The problem of dropout rates in outpatient relapse prevention groups for "problem" drinkers is addressed. To test the hypothesis that the dropout rates were due to anxiety and lack of clarity among the participants about the purpose and expectations of the group, a structured induction was developed. The results obtained show that the induction made a significant difference in reducing the dropout rate. These findings can also be applied to other outpatient groups.

Adult↗

Demystifying the patient dropout: a study of 122 brief-stay day-treatment center admissions.

Past studies examining the dropout from treatment phenomenon have failed to identify comparable populations or a standardized definition of the term "patient dropout." Although the phenomenon is widespread, few investigators have studied the problem within day-treatment programs serving subacutely disturbed clients in need of socialization or prevocational services. The primary purpose of the present study was to determine the reasons for brief Day Treatment Center (DTC) stays of 10 sessions or fewer and to ascertain implications of these findings for admission screening processes. Analysis of demographic information revealed that the average brief-stay patient was in his mid-thirties, was single (65%), was schizophrenic (39%) or suffering a mood disorder (27%), and had attended up to 4 days (63%) before leaving treatment. A retrospective review of 122 brief stay records revealed six categories of reasons for leaving the DTC: (1) a desire to return to work, (2) exacerbation of psychiatric symptoms, (3) resistance to treatment recommendations, (4) negative reaction to the treatment milieu, (5) a desire for less intense treatment, and (6) a belief that problems were resolved during the brief stay. The authors concluded that admission screening interviewers would benefit from complete past school and work records. Strategies for reducing dropout rates should include (1) longer transition periods for newly referred patients, (2) obligatory meetings with the patient and his family and therapist before inpatient discharge, and (3) improved orientation to the DTC program.

Day Care, Medical↗