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Can laboratory animal carcinogenicity studies predict cancer in exposed children?

A key to the prevention of childhood cancer is the control of carcinogens to which children are exposed. The first step in this process is to identify those chemicals that are likely to cause cancer in children. The best way to identify carcinogens, today, is the use of the rodent lifetime cancer test--the bioassay. The test has vocal critics, but is adequately reliable if properly used. Perhaps the major criticism concerns the use of the maximum tolerated dose as the highest dose tested. Critics claim that this dose causes cellular killing. The resultant cellular proliferation "fixes" preexisting mutations that can lead to cancer. This occurs but in a small fraction of the tests, and the high dose is necessary to achieve statistical sensitivity. All human carcinogens have been shown, when properly studied, to be carcinogenic in rodents. Many human carcinogens were first shown to cause cancer in rodent tests. Regulators rarely ban chemicals that have been demonstrated to be carcinogenic. Further, most chemicals in use today have not been properly tested. The potential errors in the rodent cancer test seem small when compared to the errors in the economic projections of the effects of restricting chemicals. Although not perfect, the rodent cancer test, when used properly, can help protect our children, and us, from cancer.

Animals↗

The value of MG7 antigen in predicting cancerous change in dysplastic gastric mucosa.

The aim of this study was to ascertain whether MG7Ag is a useful predictor of evolution of gastric dysplasia to carcinoma. A total of 1090 patients with confirmed dysplasia were stained immunohistochemically with MG7 monoclonal antibody by the ABC method. A prospective follow-up study was undertaken on 19 patients with MG7Ag positive staining and 16 with MG7 negative staining over a period of 10-78 months. The expression of MG7Ag was also compared in another two groups by conducting retrospective studies. One group showed an evolution into gastric cancer over 2-4 years, the other did not. Quantitative analysis of MG7Ag expression was carried out on the last two groups. The receiver operating characteristic curve and Youden index were used to assess the best critical value for MG7Ag. MG7Ag was found positive in 456/1090 cases (41.8%) with dysplasia. Prospective follow-up of 35 patients showed that 6/19 patients with MG7Ag positive staining developed gastric cancer, but there were no carcinomatous changes in 16 patients with MG7 negative staining. The results of MG7Ag expression in 72 cases with retrospective follow-up showed there were 24 with positive immunostaining among 34 cancerous cases (70.6%), and only 7 in 38 non-cancerous cases (18.4%) (p<0.01). Image analysis showed that an average MG7Ag density index ++0.19 could be regarded as the critical value for high risk of gastric mucosa with dysplasia evolving to cancer. Positive MG7Ag expression in gastric mucosa of patients with dysplasia, especially in cases with a density index ++0.19, was an indicator of high risk of malignant change.

Adult↗

[Predicting cancerization of condyloma acuminatum by testing expression of p16].

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: About 3%-10% of condyloma acuminatum (CA) may develop into cancer. Some studies indicated that homologous deletion of p16 gene is a major factor that causes cancerization of CA. This study was to detect expression of P16 protein in CA tissues and its cancerization tissues, and to investigate relationship of abnormal expression of P16 and cancerization of CA. METHODS: A total of 75 skin biopsy specimens were collected, including 30 normal skin samples (control group), 35 CA samples, and 10 cancerized CA samples. Expression of P16 was tested by LSAB immunohistochemistry, and relationship of P16 and cancerization of CA was statistically analyzed. RESULTS: CA and normal skin tissues showed weakly positive expression of P16, no significant difference exist (P< 0.05). Cancerized CA tissues showed positive or strongly positive expression of P16, significantly stronger than CA and normal skin tissues (P< 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Positive and strongly positive expression of P16 in CA tissue implied risk of cancerization of CA. P16 may be a useful predictor for cancerization of CA.

Adult↗

Cancer prediction.

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17-Hydroxycorticosteroids↗

Kernel mixture survival models for identifying cancer subtypes, predicting patient's cancer types and survival probabilities.

One important application of microarray gene expression data is to study the relationship between the clinical phenotype of cancer patients and gene expression profiles on the whole-genome scale. The clinical phenotype includes several different types of cancers, survival times, relapse times, drug responses and so on. Under the situation that the subtypes of cancer have not been previously identified or known to exist, we develop a new kernel mixture modeling method that performs simultaneously identification of the subtype of cancer, prediction of the probabilities of both cancer type and patient's survival, and detection of a set of marker genes on which to base a diagnosis. The proposed method is successfully performed on real data analysis and simulation studies.

Artificial Intelligence↗

Thousands of samples are needed to generate a robust gene list for predicting outcome in cancer.

Predicting at the time of discovery the prognosis and metastatic potential of cancer is a major challenge in current clinical research. Numerous recent studies searched for gene expression signatures that outperform traditionally used clinical parameters in outcome prediction. Finding such a signature will free many patients of the suffering and toxicity associated with adjuvant chemotherapy given to them under current protocols, even though they do not need such treatment. A reliable set of predictive genes also will contribute to a better understanding of the biological mechanism of metastasis. Several groups have published lists of predictive genes and reported good predictive performance based on them. However, the gene lists obtained for the same clinical types of patients by different groups differed widely and had only very few genes in common. This lack of agreement raised doubts about the reliability and robustness of the reported predictive gene lists, and the main source of the problem was shown to be the small number of samples that were used to generate the gene lists. Here, we introduce a previously undescribed mathematical method, probably approximately correct (PAC) sorting, for evaluating the robustness of such lists. We calculate for several published data sets the number of samples that are needed to achieve any desired level of reproducibility. For example, to achieve a typical overlap of 50% between two predictive lists of genes, breast cancer studies would need the expression profiles of several thousand early discovery patients.

Breast Neoplasms↗

Chromosomal aberrations in lymphocytes predict human cancer: a report from the European Study Group on Cytogenetic Biomarkers and Health (ESCH).

Chromosomal aberrations (CAs), sister chromatid exchanges (SCEs), and micronuclei (MN) in peripheral blood lymphocytes have for decades been used as cytogenetic biomarkers to survey genotoxic risks in the work environment. The conceptual basis for this application has been the idea that increased cytogenetic damage reflects an enhanced cancer risk. Nordic and Italian cohorts have been established to evaluate this hypothesis, and analyses presented previously have shown a positive trend between CA frequency and increased cancer risk. We now report on a pooled analysis of updated data for 3541 subjects examined for CAs, 2703 for SCEs, and 1496 for MN. To standardize for interlaboratory variation, the results for the various cytogenetic end points were trichotomized on the basis of the absolute value distribution within each laboratory as "low" (1-33 percentile), "medium" (34-66 percentile), or "high" (67-100 percentile). In the Nordic cohort, there was an elevated standardized incidence ratio (SMR) for all cancer among subjects with high CA frequency [1.53; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.13-2.05] but not for those with medium or low CA frequency. In the Italian cohort, a SMR in cancer of 2.01 (95% CI, 1.35-2.89) was obtained for those with a high CA frequency level, whereas the SMRs for those with medium or low did not noticeably differ from unity. Cox's proportional hazards models gave no evidence that the effect of CAs on total cancer incidence/mortality was modified by gender, age at test, or time since test. No association was seen between the SCEs or the MN frequencies and subsequent cancer incidence/mortality. The present study further supports our previous observation on the cancer predictivity of the CA biomarker, which seems to be independent of age at test, gender, and time since test. The risk patterns were similar within each national cohort. This result suggests that the frequency of CAs in peripheral blood lymphocytes is a relevant biomarker for cancer risk in humans, reflecting either early biological effects of genotoxic carcinogens or individual cancer susceptibility.

Chromosome Aberrations↗