Search PubMed⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search PubMed

Results for “Bayesian dating”

Search indexed PubMed citations on genomics, clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health. Explore titles, authors and supplied subject terms, then open the PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
PubMed2005

Integrating reptilian herpesviruses into the family herpesviridae.

The phylogeny of reptilian herpesviruses (HVs) relative to mammalian and avian HVs was investigated by using available gene sequences and by alignment of encoded amino acid sequences and derivation of trees by maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods. Phylogenetic loci were obtained for green turtle HV (GTHV) primarily on the basis of DNA polymerase (POL) and DNA binding protein sequences, and for lung-eye-trachea disease-associated HV (LETV) primarily from its glycoprotein B sequence; both have nodes on the branch leading to recognized species in the Alphaherpesvirinae subfamily and should be regarded as new members of that subfamily. A similar but less well defined locus was obtained for an iguanid HV based on a partial POL sequence. On the basis of short POL sequences (around 60 amino acid residues), it appeared likely that GTHV and LETV belong to a private clade and that three HVs of gerrhosaurs (plated lizards) are associated with the iguanid HV. Based on phylogenetic branching patterns for mammalian HV lineages that mirror those of host lineages, we estimated a date for the HV tree's root of around 400 million years ago. Estimated dates for branching events in the development of reptilian, avian, and mammalian Alphaherpesvirinae lineages could plausibly be accounted for in part but not completely by ancient coevolution of these virus lines with reptilian lineages and with the development of birds and mammals from reptilian progenitors.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Phylogeny of the Procyonidae (Mammalia: Carnivora): molecules, morphology and the Great American Interchange.

The Procyonidae (Mammalia: Carnivora) have played a central role in resolving the controversial systematics of the giant and red pandas, but phylogenetic relationships of species within the family itself have received much less attention. Cladistic analyses of morphological characters conducted during the last two decades have resulted in topologies that group ecologically and morphologically similar taxa together. Specifically, the highly arboreal and frugivorous kinkajou (Potos flavus) and olingos (Bassaricyon) define one clade, whereas the more terrestrial and omnivorous coatis (Nasua), raccoons (Procyon), and ringtails (Bassariscus) define another clade, with the similar-sized Nasua and Procyon joined as sister taxa in this latter group. These relationships, however, have not been tested with molecular sequence data. We examined procyonid phylogenetics based on combined data from nine nuclear and two mitochondrial gene segments totaling 6534bp. We were able to fully resolve relationships within the family with strongly supported and congruent results from maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, minimum evolution, and Bayesian analyses. We identified three distinct lineages within the family: a (Nasua, Bassaricyon) clade, a (Bassariscus, Procyon) clade, and a Potos lineage, the last of which is sister to the other two clades. These findings, which are in strong disagreement with prior fossil and morphology-based assessments of procyonid relationships, reemphasize the morphological and ecological flexibility of these taxa. In particular, morphological similarities between unrelated genera possibly reflect convergence associated with similar lifestyles and diets rather than ancestry. Furthermore, incongruence between the molecular supermatrix and a morphological character matrix comprised mostly of dental characters [Baskin, J.A., 2004. Bassariscus and Probassariscus (Mammalia, Carnivora, Procyonidae) from the early Barstovian (Middle Miocene). J. Vert. Paleo. 24, 709-720] may be due to non-independence among atomized dental characters that does not take into account the high developmental genetic correlation of these characters. Finally, molecular divergence dating analyses using a relaxed molecular clock approach suggest that intergeneric and intrageneric splits in the Procyonidae mostly occurred in the Miocene. The inferred divergence times for intrageneric splits for several genera whose ranges are bisected by the Panamanian Isthmus is significant because they suggest diversification well precedes the Great American Interchange, which has long been considered a primary underlying mechanism for procyonid evolution.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Computational modeling of the Plasmodium falciparum interactome reveals protein function on a genome-wide scale.

Many thousands of proteins encoded by the genome of Plasmodium falciparum, the causal organism of the deadliest form of human malaria, are of unknown function. It is of utmost importance that these proteins be characterized if we are to develop combative strategies against malaria based on the biology of the parasite. In an attempt to infer protein function on a genome-wide scale, we computationally modeled the P. falciparum interactome, elucidating local and global functional relationships between gene products. The resulting interaction network, reconstructed by integrating in silico and experimental functional genomics data within a Bayesian framework, covers approximately 68% of the parasite genome and provides functional inferences for more than 2000 uncharacterized proteins, based on their associations. Network reconstruction involved the use of a novel strategy, where we incorporated continuously updated, uniform reference priors in our Bayesian model. This method for generating interaction maps is thus also well suited for application to other genomes, where pre-existing interactome knowledge is sparse. Additionally, we superimposed this map on genomes of three apicomplexan pathogens--Plasmodium yoelii, Toxoplasma gondii, and Cryptosporidium parvum--describing relationships between these organisms based on retained functional linkages. This comparison provided a glimpse of the highly evolved nature of P. falciparum; for instance, a deficit of nearly 26% in terms of predicted interactions is observed against P. yoelii, because of missing ortholog partners in pairs of functionally linked proteins.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Phylogeny of the cave shrimp Troglocaris: Evidence of a young connection between Balkans and Caucasus.

The remarkably discontinuous distribution of the cave shrimp genus Troglocaris in South France, West Balkans, and West Caucasus has long been considered a biogeographic enigma. To solve it, its phylogeny was reconstructed by analyzing sequences from two mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase I and 16S rRNA) and one nuclear gene (28S rRNA) using maximum likelihood, parsimony and Bayesian inference. The genus was found to be polyphyletic because the French taxon T. inermis had no direct common ancestry with other Troglocaris taxa but was sister to the epigean freshwater atyid Dugastella valentina. All other Troglocaris species constituted a well-supported monophylum, the second cave shrimp genus Spelaeocaris nested within. The monophylum had a well-defined structure: (1) a clade restricted to the Dinaric area of the Western Balkans containing the type species T. anophthalmus along with some unnamed species, and (2) a geographically mixed clade split between the Caucasian T. kutaissiana species complex on one, and T. hercegovinensis, S. pretneri, plus an unnamed taxon on the other side. It was surprising to find the dichotomy between the Caucasian and one of the West-Balkan lineages so low in the phylogenetic hierarchy of the genus. Taking into account molecular rates of other decapods, we tentatively dated this split at 6-11 Myr. This time is in agreement with the brackish and freshwater phase of the Paratethys thus allowing for a freshwater common ancestor of Caucasian and Dinaric cave shrimps. This would weaken the marine relicts hypothesis that has often been invoked to explain the distribution of freshwater cave species with close marine relatives.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Time flies, a new molecular time-scale for brachyceran fly evolution without a clock.

The insect order Diptera, the true flies, contains one of the four largest Mesozoic insect radiations within its suborder Brachycera. Estimates of phylogenetic relationships and divergence dates among the major brachyceran lineages have been problematic or vague because of a lack of consistent evidence and the rarity of well-preserved fossils. Here, we combine new evidence from nucleotide sequence data, morphological reinterpretations, and fossils to improve estimates of brachyceran evolutionary relationships and ages. The 28S ribosomal DNA (rDNA) gene was sequenced for a broad diversity of taxa, and the data were combined with recently published morphological scorings for a parsimony-based phylogenetic analysis. The phylogenetic topology inferred from the combined 28S rDNA and morphology data set supports brachyceran monophyly and the monophyly of the four major brachyceran infraorders and suggests relationships largely consistent with previous classifications. Weak support was found for a basal brachyceran clade comprising the infraorders Stratiomyomorpha (soldier flies and relatives), Xylophagomorpha (xylophagid flies), and Tabanomorpha (horse flies, snipe flies, and relatives). This topology and similar alternative arrangements were used to obtain Bayesian estimates of divergence times, both with and without the assumption of a constant evolutionary rate. The estimated times were relatively robust to the choice of prior distributions. Divergence times based on the 28S rDNA and several fossil constraints indicate that the Brachycera originated in the late Triassic or earliest Mesozoic and that all major lower brachyceran fly lineages had near contemporaneous origins in the mid-Jurassic prior to the origin of flowering plants (angiosperms). This study provides increased resolution of brachyceran phylogeny, and our revised estimates of fly ages should improve the temporal context of evolutionary inferences and genomic comparisons between fly model organisms.

Animals↗
PubMed2007

A Bayesian approach on molecules and behavior: reconsidering phylogenetic and evolutionary patterns of the Salamandridae with emphasis on Triturus newts.

The monophyly of European newts of the genus Triturus within the family Salamandridae has for decades rested on presumably homologous behavioral and morphological characters. Molecular data challenge this hypothesis, but the phylogenetic position of Triturus within the Salamandridae has not yet been convincingly resolved. We addressed this issue and the temporal divergence of Triturus within the Salamandridae with novel Bayesian approaches applied to DNA sequence data from three mitochondrial genes (12S, 16S and cytb). We included 38 salamandrid species comprising all 13 recognized species of Triturus and 16 out of 17 salamandrid genera. A clade comprising all the "Newts" can be separated from the "True Salamanders" and Salamandrina clades. Within the "Newts" well-supported clades are: Tylototriton-Pleurodeles, the "New World Newts" (Notophthalmus-Taricha), and the "Modern Eurasian Newts" (Cynops, Pachytriton, Paramesotriton=together the "Modern Asian Newts", Calotriton, Euproctus, Neurergus and Triturus species). We found that Triturus is a non-monophyletic species assemblage, which includes four groups that are themselves monophyletic: (i) the "Large-Bodied Triturus" (six species), (ii) the "Small-Bodied Triturus" (five species), (iii) T. alpestris and (iv) T. vittatus. We estimated that the last common ancestor of Triturus existed around 64 million years ago (mya) while the root of the Salamandridae dates back to 95 mya. This was estimated using a fossil-based molecular dating approach and an explicit framework to select calibration points that least underestimated their corresponding nodes. Using the molecular phylogeny we mapped the evolution of life history and courtship traits in Triturus and found that several Triturus-specific courtship traits evolved independently.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

A northern glacial refugium for bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus).

There is controversy and uncertainty on how far north there were glacial refugia for temperate species during the Pleistocene glaciations and in the extent of the contribution of such refugia to present-day populations. We examined these issues using phylogeographic analysis of a European woodland mammal, the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus). A Bayesian coalescence analysis indicates that a bank vole population survived the height of the last glaciation (approximately 25,000-10,000 years B.P.) in the vicinity of the Carpathians, a major central European mountain chain well north of the Mediterranean areas typically regarded as glacial refugia for temperate species. Parameter estimates from the fitted isolation with migration model show that the divergence of the Carpathian population started at least 22,000 years ago, and it was likely followed by only negligible immigration from adjacent regions, suggesting the persistence of bank voles in the Carpathians through the height of the last glaciation. On the contrary, there is clear evidence for gene flow out of the Carpathians, demonstrating the contribution of the Carpathian population to the colonization of Europe after the Pleistocene. These findings are consistent with data from animal and plant fossils recovered in the Carpathians and provide the clearest phylogeographic evidence to date of a northern glacial refugium for temperate species in Europe.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

Estimating the time to the most recent common ancestor for the Y chromosome or mitochondrial DNA for a pair of individuals.

Bayesian posterior distributions are obtained for the time to the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) for a nonrecombining segment of DNA (such as the nonpseudoautosomal arm of the Y chromosome or the mitochondrial genome) for two individuals given that they match at k out of n scored markers. We argue that the distribution of the time t to the MRCA is the most natural measure of relatedness for such nonrecombining regions. Both an infinite-alleles (no recurring mutants) and stepwise mutation model are examined, and these agree well when n is moderate to large and k/n is close to one. As expected, the infinite alleles model underestimates t relative to the stepwise model. Using a modest number (20) of microsatellite markers is sufficient to obtain reasonably precise estimates of t for individuals separated by 200 or less generations. Hence, the multilocus haplotypes of two individuals can be used not only to date very deep ancestry but also rather recent ancestry as well. Finally, our results have forensic implications in that a complete match at all markers between a suspect and a sample excludes only a modest subset of the population unless a very large number of markers (>500 microsatellites) are used.

Alleles↗
PubMed2026

Parting ways: Pan-Homo divergence revisited.

The timing of divergence between hominins and the bonobo-chimpanzee clade has been at the core of palaeoanthropological debate for over a century. The earliest molecular studies indicated divergence times ranging from 5 Ma to as recently as 1.3 Ma. This study critically reviews the trends of time estimates published between 1967 and 2023, and analyses how these are supported or rejected by the current molecular and fossil records. We compiled 202 divergence estimates and defined three distinct thresholds based on fossil evidence at 4.4 Ma (Australopithecus anamensis and Ardipithecus ramidus), 6.2 Ma (Orrorin tugenensis and Ardipithecus kadabba), and 7.2 Ma (Sahelanthropus tchadensis). We then used these thresholds to filter out molecular estimates that are too young to fit the fossil record. Overall, the data suggests a divergence event within the late Miocene, with each threshold pushing it further back, 8.63-6.38, 10.33-7.81, and 10.95-8.81 Ma, respectively. We use a quadratic regression to demonstrate that estimates have been slowly shifting from ~ 6 Ma to ~ 8.5 Ma over the past 56 years. A Bayesian meta-analysis of genomic estimates filtered by our most consensual threshold (i.e., assuming Australopithecus belongs to Hominini) indicates that the split must have occurred early in the late Miocene, most likely before 7 Ma (~ 99.5% posterior probability) with a pooled effect of 8.69-7.28 Ma. We conclude that, despite an initial bias towards younger estimates, the molecular timing for the last common ancestor (LCA) of Pan-Homo has been progressively approaching the intervals suggested by the current fossil record.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Clinical pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of tacrolimus in solid organ transplantation.

The aim of this review is to analyse critically the recent literature on the clinical pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of tacrolimus in solid organ transplant recipients. Dosage and target concentration recommendations for tacrolimus vary from centre to centre, and large pharmacokinetic variability makes it difficult to predict what concentration will be achieved with a particular dose or dosage change. Therapeutic ranges have not been based on statistical approaches. The majority of pharmacokinetic studies have involved intense blood sampling in small homogeneous groups in the immediate post-transplant period. Most have used nonspecific immunoassays and provide little information on pharmacokinetic variability. Demographic investigations seeking correlations between pharmacokinetic parameters and patient factors have generally looked at one covariate at a time and have involved small patient numbers. Factors reported to influence the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus include the patient group studied, hepatic dysfunction, hepatitis C status, time after transplantation, patient age, donor liver characteristics, recipient race, haematocrit and albumin concentrations, diurnal rhythm, food administration, corticosteroid dosage, diarrhoea and cytochrome P450 (CYP) isoenzyme and P-glycoprotein expression. Population analyses are adding to our understanding of the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus, but such investigations are still in their infancy. A significant proportion of model variability remains unexplained. Population modelling and Bayesian forecasting may be improved if CYP isoenzymes and/or P-glycoprotein expression could be considered as covariates. Reports have been conflicting as to whether low tacrolimus trough concentrations are related to rejection. Several studies have demonstrated a correlation between high trough concentrations and toxicity, particularly nephrotoxicity. The best predictor of pharmacological effect may be drug concentrations in the transplanted organ itself. Researchers have started to question current reliance on trough measurement during therapeutic drug monitoring, with instances of toxicity and rejection occurring when trough concentrations are within 'acceptable' ranges. The correlation between blood concentration and drug exposure can be improved by use of non-trough timepoints. However, controversy exists as to whether this will provide any great benefit, given the added complexity in monitoring. Investigators are now attempting to quantify the pharmacological effects of tacrolimus on immune cells through assays that measure in vivo calcineurin inhibition and markers of immunosuppression such as cytokine concentration. To date, no studies have correlated pharmacodynamic marker assay results with immunosuppressive efficacy, as determined by allograft outcome, or investigated the relationship between calcineurin inhibition and drug adverse effects. Little is known about the magnitude of the pharmacodynamic variability of tacrolimus.

Drug Interactions↗
PubMed2005

On phylogenetic relationships among major lineages of the Gammaherpesvirinae.

Phylogenetic relationships within the subfamily Gammaherpesvirinae of the family Herpesviridae were investigated for three species in the genus Lymphocryptovirus (or gamma1 group) and nine in the genus Rhadinovirus (or gamma2 group). Alignments of amino acid sequences from up to 28 genes were used to derive trees by maximum-likelihood and Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov chain methods. Two problem areas were identified involving an unresolvable multifurcation for a clade within the gamma2 group, and a high divergence for Murid herpesvirus 4 (MHV4). A robust final tree was obtained, which was valid for genes from across the virus genomes and was rooted by reference to previous analyses of the whole family Herpesviridae. This tree comprised four major lineages: the gamma1 group of primate viruses; a clade of artiodactyl gamma2 viruses; a clade of perissodactyl gamma2 viruses; and a clade of gamma2 viruses with a multifurcation at its base and containing Old World and New World primate viruses, Bovine herpesvirus 4 and MHV4. Developing previous work it was proposed, on the basis of similarities between the gammaherpesvirus tree and the tree of corresponding mammalian hosts, that the first three of these major viral lineages arose in a coevolutionary manner with host lineages, while the fourth had its origin in an ancient interspecies transfer. Transfer of dates from mammalian palaeontology then allowed estimation of dates for nodes in the gammaherpesvirus tree.

Animals↗
PubMed1989

Population pharmacokinetics of mitoxantrone performed by a NONMEM method.

To date, the pharmacokinetics of mitoxantrone (1,4-dihydroxy-5,8-bis[[2-[(2- hydroxyethyl)amino]ethyl]amino]anthraquinone) has been described either by an open two- or three-compartment model, showing high interindividual variability. In order to evaluate this variability, residual intraindividual variability, and measurement error, we carried out a population study. A sensitive HPLC method allowed analysis of blood samples drawn from 21 patients with breast cancer or acute nonlymphocytic leukemia. Individual data treatment (22 kinetics) using weighted nonlinear least squares regression confirmed the huge interindividual variability whatever the administration protocol of mitoxantrone: bi- or tri-exponential models fitted the data. The NONMEM population method used herein describes all concentration-time curves by a single three-compartment model, considering biphasic kinetics as fragmentary data. Residual intraindividual variability was 21.4%. Population mean values (+/- interindividual SD) of clearance, terminal half-life, and total volume of distribution were, respectively, 23.40 (+/- 10.76) L/h, 46.87 (+/- 12.18) h, and 385.49 (+/- 196.60) L. These results are of particular interest in clinical routines to calculate dosage regimens by Bayesian estimation methods.

Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid↗
PubMed2003

The sperm outer dense fiber protein is the 10th member of the superfamily of mammalian small stress proteins.

Nine proteins have been assigned to date to the superfamily of mammalian small heat shock proteins (sHsps): Hsp27 (HspB1, Hsp25), myotonic dystrophy protein kinase-binding protein (MKBP) (HspB2), HspB3, alphaA-crystallin (HspB4), alphaB-crystallin (HspB5), Hsp20 (p20, HspB6), cardiovascular heat shock protein (cvHsp [HspB7]), Hsp22 (HspB8), and HspB9. The most pronounced structural feature of sHsps is the alpha-crystallin domain, a conserved stretch of approximately 80 amino acid residues in the C-terminal half of the molecule. Using the alpha-crystallin domain of human Hsp27 as query in a BLAST search, we found sequence similarity with another mammalian protein, the sperm outer dense fiber protein (ODFP). ODFP occurs exclusively in the axoneme of sperm cells. Multiple alignment of human ODFP with the other human sHsps reveals that the primary structure of ODFP fits into the sequence pattern that is typical for this protein superfamily: alpha-crystallin domain (conserved), N-terminal domain (less conserved), central region (variable), and C-terminal tails (variable). In a phylogenetic analysis of 167 proteins of the sHsp superfamily, using Bayesian inference, mammalian ODFPs form a clade and are nested within previously identified sHsps, some of which have been implicated in cytoskeletal functions. Both the multiple alignment and the phylogeny suggest that ODFP is the 10th member of the superfamily of mammalian sHsps, and we propose to name it HspB10 in analogy with the other sHsps. The C-terminal tail of HspB10 has a remarkable low-complexity structure consisting of 10 repeats of the motif C-X-P. A BLAST search using the C-terminal tail as query revealed similarity with sequence elements in a number of Drosophila male sperm proteins, and mammalian type I keratins and cornifin-alpha. Taken together, the following findings suggest a specialized role of HspB10 in cytoskeleton: (1) the exclusive location in sperm cell tails, (2) the phylogenetic relationship with sHsps implicated in cytoskeletal functions, and (3) the partial similarity with cytoskeletal proteins.

Amino Acid Sequence↗
PubMed2003

Molecular systematics and adaptive radiation of Hawaii's endemic Damselfly genus Megalagrion (Odonata: Coenagrionidae).

Damselflies of the endemic Hawaiian genus Megalagrion have radiated into a wide variety of habitats and are an excellent model group for the study of adaptive radiation. Past phylogenetic analysis based on morphological characters has been problematic. Here, we examine relationships among 56 individuals from 20 of the 23 described species using maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial (1287 bp) and nuclear (1039 bp) DNA sequence data. Models of evolution were chosen using the Akaike information criterion. Problems with distant outgroups were accommodated by constraining the best ML ingroup topology but allowing the outgroups to attach to any ingroup branch in a bootstrap analysis. No strong contradictions were obtained between either data partition and the combined data set. Areas of disagreement are mainly confined to clades that are strongly supported by the mitochondrial DNA and weakly supported by the elongation factor 1alpha data because of lack of changes. However, the combined analysis resulted in a unique tree. Correlation between Bayesian posterior probabilities and bootstrap percentages decreased in concert with decreasing information in the data partitions. In cases where nodes were supported by single characters bootstrap proportions were dramatically reduced compared with posterior probabilities. Two speciation patterns were evident from the phylogenetic analysis. First, most speciation is interisland and occurred as members of established ecological guilds colonized new volcanoes after they emerged from the sea. Second, there are several instances of rapid radiation into a variety of specialized habitats, in one case entirely within the island of Kauai. Application of a local clock procedure to the mitochondrial DNA topology suggests that two of these radiations correspond to the development of habitat on the islands of Kauai and Oahu. About 4.0 million years ago, species simultaneously moved into fast streams and plant leaf axils on Kauai, and about 1.5 million years later another group moved simultaneously to seeps and terrestrial habitats on Oahu. Results from the local clock analysis also strongly suggest that Megalagrion arrived in Hawaii about 10 million years ago, well before the emergence of Kauai. Date estimates were more sensitive to the particular node that was fixed in time than to the model of local branch evolution used. We propose a general model for the development of endemic damselfly species on Hawaiian Islands and document five potential cases of hybridization (M. xanthomelas x M. pacificum, M. eudytum x M. vagabundum, M. orobates x M. oresitrophum, M. nesiotes x M. oahuense, and M. mauka x M. paludicola).

Adaptation, Biological↗
PubMed2000

Population-based pharmacokinetic approach for methadone monitoring of opiate addicts: potential clinical utility.

AIMS: There is evidence that plasma methadone measurements may be of benefit in dosage adjustment during methadone maintenance treatment for opiate dependence. However, to date the kinetics of oral rac-methadone have been poorly characterized. We describe plasma methadone concentration-time data collected from 35 opiate addicts. SUBJECTS: Oral doses of rac-methadone were given to 24 male and 11 female addicts attending a community-based drug treatment centre. MEASUREMENTS: Plasma methadone concentrations were measured by liquid chromatography (HPLC). PROCEDURES: Plasma concentration-time data were collected from patients prescribed oral rac-methadone in order to describe the complex kinetics of the drug incorporating its long elimination half-life. FINDINGS: Auto-induction of methadone metabolism was demonstrated and it was observed that clearance of methadone was significantly lower (p < 0.05) in opiate addicts at the start of treatment (median elimination half-life, 128-hours) than in those who had reached steady-state (median elimination half-life, 48 hours). Our data has provided the basis for a population-based pharmacokinetic (POP-PK) model which is intended for use as a clinical tool in association with plasma measurements in methadone maintenance patients. CONCLUSIONS: Using plasma monitoring in combination with the application of Bayesian forecasting it should be possible to predict trough levels of methadone during daily dosing. The model is able to utilize sparse sampling, and two blood samples are expected to be sufficient to define patient compliance. Random samples during treatment could be used to assess methadone dosing by comparing predicted with observed measurements for each individual. The clinical tool could therefore help to detect incomplete (failure to consume the whole daily dose as prescribed) and poor (due to ingestion of extra illicit methadone) compliance as well as therapeutic failure due to drug-drug interactions. Targeting resources in this way could be a cost-effective tool for supervision of methadone dosing.

Administration, Oral↗
PubMed2000

Perspective: gene divergence, population divergence, and the variance in coalescence time in phylogeographic studies.

Molecular methods as applied to the biogeography of single species (phylogeography) or multiple codistributed species (comparative phylogeography) have been productively and extensively used to elucidate common historical features in the diversification of the Earth's biota. However, only recently have methods for estimating population divergence times or their confidence limits while taking into account the critical effects of genetic polymorphism in ancestral species become available, and earlier methods for doing so are underutilized. We review models that address the crucial distinction between the gene divergence, the parameter that is typically recovered in molecular phylogeographic studies, and the population divergence, which is in most cases the parameter of interest and will almost always postdate the gene divergence. Assuming that population sizes of ancestral species are distributed similarly to those of extant species, we show that phylogeographic studies in vertebrates suggest that divergence of alleles in ancestral species can comprise from less than 10% to over 50% of the total divergence between sister species, suggesting that the problem of ancestral polymorphism in dating population divergence can be substantial. The variance in the number of substitutions (among loci for a given species or among species for a given gene) resulting from the stochastic nature of DNA change is generally smaller than the variance due to substitutions along allelic lines whose coalescence times vary due to genetic drift in the ancestral population. Whereas the former variance can be reduced by further DNA sequencing at a single locus, the latter cannot. Contrary to phylogeographic intuition, dating population divergence times when allelic lines have achieved reciprocal monophyly is in some ways more challenging than when allelic lines have not achieved monophyly, because in the former case critical data on ancestral population size provided by residual ancestral polymorphism is lost. In the former case differences in coalescence time between species pairs can in principle be explained entirely by differences in ancestral population size without resorting to explanations involving differences in divergence time. Furthermore, the confidence limits on population divergence times are severely underestimated when those for number of substitutions per site in the DNA sequences examined are used as a proxy. This uncertainty highlights the importance of multilocus data in estimating population divergence times; multilocus data can in principle distinguish differences in coalescence time (T) resulting from differences in population divergence time and differences in T due to differences in ancestral population sizes and will reduce the confidence limits on the estimates. We analyze the contribution of ancestral population size (theta) to T and the effect of uncertainty in theta on estimates of population divergence (tau) for single loci under reciprocal monophyly using a simple Bayesian extension of Takahata and Satta's and Yang's recent coalescent methods. The confidence limits on tau decrease when the range over which ancestral population size theta is assumed to be distributed decreases and when tau increases; they generally exclude zero when tau/(4Ne) > 1. We also apply a maximum-likelihood method to several single and multilocus data sets. With multilocus data, the criterion for excluding tau = 0 is roughly that l tau/(4Ne) > 1, where l is the number of loci. Our analyses corroborate recent suggestions that increasing the number of loci is critical to decreasing the uncertainty in estimates of population divergence time.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

The estimated prevalence of Johne's disease infected sheep flocks in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the likely geographical distribution and flock-prevalence of ovine Johne's disease (OJD) in Australia. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study design was used. PROCEDURE: The results of abattoir surveillance for OJD carried out during 2000 were analysed to estimate the prevalence of infected flocks in three regions of New South Wales and in other States. A Bayesian approach was used to adjust apparent prevalence estimates for the assumed flock-sensitivity and flock-specificity of abattoir surveillance, and to allow for uncertainty about the true values of these measures. RESULTS: The 95% probability limits for flock-prevalence at 31 December 2000 were 0.04%-1.5%, 8%-15% and 29%-39% for low, moderate and high prevalence regions of New South Wales respectively. The other States generally had an upper 97.5% probability limit of about 1% or less. Based on these estimates about 6 to 10% of flocks in New South Wales and 2.4 to 4.4% of flocks Australia-wide are likely to be infected. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that OJD has a highly clustered distribution in Australia, and provides estimates of the prevalence of infected flocks by State or region. Based on this analysis there were probably between 2000 and 3700 infected flocks in Australia at 31 December 2000, with more than 80% of these in a relatively small geographic area of central and southern New South Wales. Some States, such as Queensland and Western Australia, may have a prevalence equal or close to 0%, however the technique used was unable to demonstrate the absence of infection in these States with the intensity of surveillance undertaken to date.

Abattoirs↗
PubMed2026

Emergence of two novel HIV-1 Circulating Recombinant Forms (CRF190_0708 and CRF191_0708): molecular characterization and clinical insights from a five-year study in Yunnan, China.

BACKGROUND: To characterize HIV-1 molecular epidemiology and identify novel circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) among antiretroviral therapy (ART)-na&#xef;ve heterosexuals in Yunnan, China, and evaluate their clinical impact. METHODS: This study examined 636 HIV-1 pol sequences to analyze genetic diversity, pretreatment drug resistance (PDR), and transmission networks. Near full-length genomes were obtained to identify and characterize novel recombinants, with their evolutionary history inferred by Bayesian analysis. Co-receptor tropism was predicted, and the five-year clinical outcomes (including immune reconstitution and virologic response) of patients infected with the novel CRFs were compared. RESULTS: The most prevalent type identified was CRF08_BC, accounting for 50.16% of cases. The prevalence of drug resistance was 5.97% (38/636), with the K103N mutation being the most common. An analysis of transmission networks revealed that 52.2% (272/521) of clusters were associated with CRF07_BC and CRF08_BC. Two novel second-generation CRFs were identified: CRF190_0708, with an estimated time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of 1998.9, and CRF191_0708, with a more recent tMRCA ranging from 2009.5 to 2011.6. During the five-year follow-up period, viral rebound was observed in 7 patients in the CRF190_0708 group and in 1 patient in the CRF191_0708 group. Drug-resistance mutations (M184V and K103N) were detected in a subset of rebound cases in the CRF190_0708 group. CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies two novel HIV-1 recombinants, CRF190_0708 and CRF191_0708, highlighting ongoing viral evolution in Yunnan. Preliminary findings suggest possible clinical differences, warranting further investigation. Continued molecular surveillance is needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The clinical study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under the identifier NCT03852849. The date of registration was March 22, 2019.

Adult↗