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Neural network and multiple regression models for PM10 prediction in Athens: a comparative assessment.

Particulate atmospheric pollution in urban areas is considered to have significant impact on human health. Therefore, the ability to make accurate predictions of particulate ambient concentrations is important to improve public awareness and air quality management. This study examines the possibility of using neural network methods as tools for daily average particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <10 microm (PM10) concentration forecasting, providing an alternative to statistical models widely used up to this day. Based on a data inventory, in a fixed central site in Athens, Greece, ranging over a two-year period, and using mainly meteorological variables as inputs, neural network models and multiple linear regression models were developed and evaluated. Comparison statistics used indicate that the neural network approach has an edge over regression models, expressed both in terms of prediction error (root mean square error values lower by 8.2-9.4%) and of episodic prediction ability (false alarm rate values lower by 7-13%). The results demonstrate that artificial neural networks (ANNs), if properly trained and formed, can provide adequate solutions to particulate pollution prognostic demands.

Air Pollutants↗

Disinfection by-products and volatile organic compounds in the water supply system in Athens, Greece.

On a monthly basis, on a one year period, disinfection by-products (DBPs) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were measured in raw water and in treated water of four water treatment plants (WTP) as well as from eight representative points of the distribution network of Athens. Liquid-liquid extraction (LLE) method followed by gas chromatography (GC) with electron capture detection (ECD) and mass spectrometry (MS) was used for the determination of the DBPs, while the purge-and-trap (PAT) technique followed by GC-MS was used for the determination of the VOCs. The DBPs that have been studied included trihalomethanes (THMs), haloacetonitriles (HANs), haloketones (HKs), chlorate hydrate (CH) and chloropicrin (CP), while forty-one VOCs were also studied including THMs. Chloroform (CM), dichlorobromomethane (DCBM), chlorodibromomethane (CDBM) were the major organic compounds found in all treated water samples. HANs, HKs, CH and CP were detected in treated samples but at lower concentrations.

Disinfectants↗

Prevalence and patterns of resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae strains isolated from carriers attending day care centers in the area of Athens.

The prevalence and patterns of Streptococcus pneumoniae resistance to antibiotics was examined in 146 nasopharyngeal carrier strains obtained during April and May, 1997, from 382 healthy children attending eight day care centers (DCCs) in the area of Athens. Reduced susceptibility to at least one antibiotic was found in 32.6% as follows: penicillin 11.4% (intermediate), cefotaxime 0.8% (intermediate), trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole 22.7%, erythromycin 13.6%, tetracycline 11.4%, chloramphenicol 8.3%. Most of the nonsusceptible to penicillin isolates belonged to serogroups 23, 9, and 19. Multidrug resistance was detected in 11.4% of S. pneumoniae isolates including five penicillin nonsusceptible serogroup 23 strains. More than half of the multidrug resistant strains were susceptible to penicillin and belonged to serogroups 6 (4), 23 (1), 19 (1), and 1(1). Strains that belonged to the same serogroup/serotype and had identical resistance patterns appeared to cluster in some DCCs. Antibiotic use in the previous month was associated with reduced susceptibility to penicillin (p = 0.007) and multidrug resistance (p = 0.012). In conclusion, a moderate prevalence of reduced susceptibility to penicillin in pneumococcal carrier strains was found in our community. Multidrug resistance was common and was often associated with susceptibility to penicillin. Several distinct patterns of resistance were observed, suggesting the spread of resistant clones to our country.

Anti-Bacterial Agents↗

A case-control study of coronary heart disease in Athens, Greece.

A case-control study of coronary heart disease (CHD) was conducted in Athens, Greece. The case series consisted of 329 patients with electrocardiographically confirmed coronary infarct or a diagnostic coronary arteriogram, or both, who were admitted during a 16-month period to a major teaching hospital. Controls were 570 patients admitted to the same hospital just before or after the CHD cases for minor surgery; eye, ear, nose or minor urological problems; or chest problems definitely shown to be unrelated to CHD. All cases and controls were interviewed in the hospital wards and selected laboratory data were abstracted. The main analysis was done by modelling through multiple logistic regression, controlling for demographic variables as well as for the mutual confounding effects of the investigated risk factors. Obesity, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, elevated blood cholesterol and excessive coffee intake were significant (P < 0.02) independent risk factors with relative risk estimates in the 2- to 3-fold range. Non-significant positive associations were found with respect to tobacco smoking and modest coffee consumption, whereas non-significant negative associations were noted with respect to alcohol intake and regular exercise. A negative association with duration of afternoon siesta was of borderline statistical significance.

Adult↗

Dissemination of vancomycin-resistant enterococci among haemodialysis patients in Athens, Greece.

OBJECTIVES: Vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) may colonize haemodialysis patients, but their epidemiology in this population is not well defined. Within the few last years, VRE strains have emerged and are increasingly isolated in the nosocomial environment in Greece, but colonization of dialysis patients has never been evaluated before. This study sought to determine the epidemiology of VRE colonization within this high-risk population and define the risk factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: During a 4 month period, rectal swabs or faecal specimens were collected from 334 consecutive outpatients, who were treated at four independent dialysis units located in the same area of Athens and referring patients to the same local hospital. The relatedness of isolates was defined by molecular typing, and demographic and clinical patient data were recorded. RESULTS: Thirteen multiresistant Enterococcus faecium vanA strains were isolated corresponding to a colonization frequency of 3.9%. They were separated into seven clusters: type A (two strains), type B (six strains) and types C to G (one strain each). Type B strains originated from three units, while a single unit demonstrated four type B and two type A strains. Univariate statistical analysis revealed that prior hospitalization (P=0.001), prior administration of antimicrobials (P=0.026) and male gender (P=0.019) were associated with VRE colonization. CONCLUSIONS: In Greece, haemodialysis patients are colonized with VRE at a low frequency. The predominance of one clone and its isolation from several units strongly indicate interfacility transmission of strains, most probably within a health care environment shared by all patients.

Aged↗

Seminal volume and total sperm number trends in men attending subfertility clinics in the greater Athens area during the period 1977-1993.

The trends for such important parameters of male fertility as seminal volume and total sperm number were assessed in men living permanently in the Greater Athens area over a prolonged period of time. To this end, the records of three andrological laboratories employing the same method for semen evaluation were analysed retrospectively. Out of 23,850 men examined from 1977 to 1993 (17 years) for couple subfertility, a total of 2385 (10%) were selected for evaluation by a randomization procedure. Analysis of the data included (i) estimation of mean seminal volume and total sperm number per year, (ii) assessment of percentage frequency distribution of each seminal parameter and (iii) evaluation of seminal volume and total sperm number changes in relation to the year of observation and age of the subjects. A significant decrease (P < 0.01) of total sperm number was observed over the years with a mean (+/-SEM) of 154.3 +/- 19.2 x 10(6) at the beginning (1977), dropping to 130.1 +/- 13.3 x 10(6) in the final year (1993). Mean seminal volume was lower in the final year of observation, but its difference from the initial year value was not significant. Frequency distribution analysis showed a marked decline in the 240-400 x 10(6) sub-set of the range of sperm number values from 16.9 +/- 4.5% (1977) to 10.6 +/- 1.6% in the final year (P < 0.01). Multiple regression analysis of seminal volume, total sperm number, age and year of assessment revealed a significant decline of the two seminal parameters along the years of observation (P < 0.05 and P < 0.0001 respectively). Over the same period, a marked deterioration of some air pollution indices was observed in that area. It is concluded that in this racially and ethnically homogeneous sample of men, living under the same environmental conditions, a significant decline in seminal volume and total sperm number occurred over the 17 years of observation.

Adult↗

Incidence of unabsorbed yolk sacs in broilers, broiler breeder roosters, white Leghorn hens, and Athens-Canadian randombred control broilers.

Unabsorbed yolk sacs are being investigated as a possible reservoir for internal Campylobacter and salmonellae contamination of processed poultry carcasses. However, it is unknown at what frequency that unabsorbed yolk sacs persist at the time of processing of broilers and spent breeders. Seven sets of 100 broiler carcasses (at 6 or 8 wk of age) were obtained from commercial processing plants. In addition, 100 52-wk-old broiler breeder males, 100 102-wk-old Leghorn hens, and 300 8-wk-old Athens-Canadian randombred control (ACRBC) broilers were euthanized, and their abdominal cavities were opened for determination of the presence of unabsorbed yolk sacs. Carcasses with obliterated yolk stalks or stalks with no detectable yolk material were categorized as normal. Those with unabsorbed yolk sacs were further separated into 2 groups: 1) attached by the yolk stalk to the small intestine or 2) unattached within the abdominal cavity. Yolk sacs were further classified by size: 1) small was <2 mm in diameter, 2) medium was 2 to 10 mm, and 3) large was >10 mm. From the 300 commercial broiler carcasses that were 6 wk old, 54% were categorized as normal with no detectable yolk sac, 35% had an unabsorbed yolk sac attached to the yolk stalk, and 12% had unattached yolk sacs. From the 400 commercial broiler carcasses that were 8 wk old, 49% of the carcasses were normal, 31% had attached unabsorbed yolk sacs, and 20% had unattached yolk sacs. From the 100 rooster carcasses sampled, 73% were normal, 8% had attached unabsorbed yolk sacs, and 19% had unattached yolk sacs. From the 100 White Leghorn hen carcasses sampled, 88% were normal, 8% had attached unabsorbed yolk sacs, and 4% were unattached yolk sacs. From the 300 ACRBC carcasses sampled, 76% were normal, 4% had attached unabsorbed yolk sacs, and 20% were unattached yolk sacs. The incidence of unabsorbed yolk sacs in present day commercial broilers appears twice as high as for mature roosters, hens, or ACRBC broilers.

Animals↗

Examination frequencies and patient doses from computed tomography examinations in the area of Athens, Greece.

A survey was conducted in the Athens region between the years 1996-1997, in which 33 CT scanner facilities from the 67 operating in this area participated. Examination frequencies from the 33 scanners were 187,875 per year for all types of examinations. Using published estimations for the mean effective dose for each type of examination, it was estimated that the collective dose from the above examinations was about 1,100 person-Sv, which, if projected to the total number of 152 CT scanners operating in Greece at the time of the survey, results in about 0.5 mSv per caput dose each year for the Greek population, which is probably the highest in Europe.

Greece↗

Fraction of prostate cancer incidence attributed to diet in Athens, Greece.

Diet appears to be a major determinant in the incidence of prostate cancer. In a case-control study conducted in Athens, Greece, we found that dairy products, butter and seed oils were positively associated with risk of prostate cancer, whereas cooked and raw tomatoes were inversely associated. We utilized the data from this study to calculate the population attributable fractions under alternative assumptions of feasible dietary changes. For each subject, a dietary score was calculated and categorized into approximately quintiles, representing increasing levels of prostate cancer risk as a function of the intake of the five discriminatory food groups or items. Population attributable fractions in terms of this dietary score were calculated taking into account multivariate adjustment. We observed that, if all individuals were shifted to the baseline category, the incidence of prostate cancer in this study population would be reduced by 41% (95% confidence interval 23-59%). However, if all individuals were shifted to the adjacent lower risk quintile, the expected incidence reduction would be a more modest 19%. The incidence of prostate cancer in Greece could be reduced by about two-fifths if the population increased the consumption of tomatoes and reduced the intake of dairy products, and substituted olive oil for other added lipids.

Butter↗

Nuclear security and radiological preparedness for the olympic games, athens 2004: lessons learned for organizing major public events.

In light of the exceptional circumstances that arose from hosting the Olympic Games in Athens in 2004 and from recent terrorist events internationally, Greece attributes the highest priority to security issues. According to its statutory role, the Greek Atomic Energy Commission is responsible for emergency preparedness and response in case of nuclear and radiological events, and advises the Government on the measures and interventions necessary to protect the public. In this context, the Commission participated in the Nuclear, Radiological, Biological, and Chemical Threat National Emergency Plan, specially developed for the Olympic Games, and coordinated by the Olympic Games Security Division. The objective of this paper is to share the experience gained during the organization of the Olympic Games and to present the nuclear security program implemented prior to, during, and beyond the Games, in order to prevent, detect, assess, and respond to the threat of nuclear terrorism. This program adopted a multi-area coverage of nuclear security, including physical protection of nuclear and radiological facilities, prevention of smuggling of radioactive materials through borders, prevention of dispersion of these materials into the Olympic venues, enhancement of emergency preparedness and response to radiological events, upgrading of the technical infrastructure, establishment of new procedures for assessing the threat and responding to radiological incidents, and training personnel belonging to several organizations involved in the National Emergency Response Plan. Finally, the close cooperation of Greek Authorities with the International Atomic Energy Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy, under the coordination of the Greek Atomic Energy Commission, is also discussed.

Civil Defense↗

Coping with seismic vulnerability: small manufacturing firms in western Athens.

This paper attempts to contribute to international discourse on the responsibility of macro structures (economic and political) and private agencies for the production and distribution of vulnerability. It does so by focusing on an individual economic entity, small manufacturing firms (SMFs), in a specific location, western Athens, Greece. By evaluating the losses that SMFs sustained in the earthquake of 7 September 1999, the paper points to variations in vulnerability levels among such firms and highlights the 'sources' of vulnerability they confront. Furthermore, the SMF recovery cycle is systematically monitored in parallel with relevant public policies and state reactions to private recovery methods. The analysis illustrates processes that externalise recovery costs, alter the relationship between physical and socio-economic vulnerability and shift the vulnerability load from macro structures to individual agencies or vice versa. It is based on two methodological approaches: the division of vulnerability into three constituent components (exposure, resistance and resilience); and the conceptual split between producers and carriers of vulnerability.

Disaster Planning↗

Medical education: views and opinions of teachers and students at the University of Athens.

Athens University teachers' and students' views and opinions on general issues in medical education were recorded by the method of written questionnaires. This was undertaken in an attempt to have basic material necessary for possible reform of the present system. Eleven professors, fifty associate professors, eighty-three lecturers, 107 assistants, sixty final-year students and eighteen teachers, who had just finished a course in educational techniques, responded to the thirty-six items of a Greek-oriented questionnaire especially prepared for this purpose. Results were analysed and presented in topics such as evaluation, students' characteristics, ways of training, and characteristics of the effective university teacher. Commonly accepted issues were: frequent examinations; repeated orientation and guidance of students; examination to evaluate both students and teachers; smaller group tutorial teaching; student participation in curriculum planning; lesser factual details; teaching how to search into the sources of knowledge; inspiration of life learning. It is concluded that there are several key issues shared in common among both senior and junior teachers and students. Reform which is desirable can thus be widely accepted.

Attitude of Health Personnel↗

Effect of glucose and thiamine concentrations on the formation of macroconidia in dermatophytes. Occurrence of dysgonic Microsporum canis strains in Athens, Greece.

Data collected from multiple trials with 110 fresh and preserved clinical isolates of Trichophyton mentagrophytes var. mentagrophytes, T. violaceum, T. rubrum, T. verrucosum, Microsporum canis and Epidermophyton floccosum revealed that production of macroconidia depends on glucose and thiamine concentrations in the medium. Optimal macroconidia production was obtained at the critical concentrations of 5 g l-1 glucose and 0.6 g l-1 thiamine when the two compounds were used in combination. The same conditions also encouraged macroconidia production in aconidial strains of T. verrucosum. Cutaneous inoculation in immunocompetent laboratory rabbits further enhanced the macroconidia producing capacity of the tested strains. Emphasis was placed on the occurrence of dysgonic/atypical strains of M. canis, which readily reverted to their typical phenotypes after growth on medium supplemented with 0.6 g l-1 thiamine, a process greatly augmented after cutaneous animal inoculation. It was verified that selective exogenous factors affect macroconidial production and that the dysgonic group of M. canis constitutes an epidemiologically significant group in the Greater Athens area. This is the first report of the occurrence of such M. canis strains from Greece.

Animals↗

Etiology of tinea capitis in Athens, Greece -- a 6-year (1996-2001) retrospective study.

A total of 577 patients with tinea capitis have been diagnosed at the Mycology laboratory of 'A. Sygros' Hospital of Skin and Venereal Diseases, Athens, Greece between 1996 and 2001. From these patients, 100 were immigrants from Balkan, Near East and African countries. The vast majority of the patients (95%) were children, mainly at preschool and school age and only 5% were adults. Zoophilic dermatophytes accounted for 86.5% followed by anthropophilic (12.4%) and geophilic (1.2%) dermatophytes. The majority of anthropophilic infections (59.5%) were recorded in the sub-population of immigrants. Microsporum canis (84.5%) was the main etiologic agent.

Adolescent↗

Superficial mycoses due to Trichophyton violaceum in Athens, Greece: a 15-year retrospective study.

This is a retrospective study on the superficial mycoses due to Trichophyton violaceum in the greater Athens area for the last 15 years - 1989-2003. During this period 104 patients were found to have an infection due to T. violaceum- an incidence rate of 0.75% of all dermatophytosis. Of the patients 59 were Greeks, 15 Greek Gypsies and 30 immigrants mostly from Albania (50%). Of them 58 were children, 46 adults (mainly women, 34 cases). Trichophyton violaceum infection was presented with a variety of manifestations (127 cases). The prevailing was tinea capitis present in 85 patients - 57 children, 24 women and four men (women : men 6 : 1). Tinea capitis together with other forms of the infection was found in 14 patients. Tinea facie, corporis, manuum, barbae and unguium were seen in nineteen patients. The isolation rate of T. violaceum infection in the Greek population remained at a low level for three decades after the mid-1960s. However, a substantial increase in the isolation rate is observed in the mid-1990s attributed mainly to the influx of economic immigrants from countries where the infection is endemic.

Adolescent↗

Conventional and molecular investigation of meningococcal isolates in relation to two outbreaks in the area of Athens, Greece.

Two local outbreaks caused by serogroup B Neisseria meningitidis occurred in the Athens area of Greece during 2003. In total, 30 N. meningitidis isolates from patients and carriers, as well as sporadic cases, were investigated by conventional techniques (serogroup, serotype and serosubtype), multilocus sequence typing (MLST), analysis of variable number tandem repeats (VNTR) and random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis. Compared with the two other molecular techniques, VNTR analysis was a simple, reliable and highly discriminatory method for fine typing of meningococcal isolates, showing a good correlation with the epidemiological data for the two outbreaks analysed.

Adolescent↗

Characterisation of macrolide-non-susceptible Streptococcus pneumoniae colonising children attending day-care centres in Athens, Greece during 2000 and 2003.

Nasopharyngeal Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates colonising young children are representative of isolates causing clinical disease. This study determined the frequency of macrolide-non-susceptible pneumococci, as well as their phenotypic and genotypic characteristics, among pneumococci collected during two cross-sectional surveillance studies of the nasopharynx of 2847 children attending day-care centres in the Athens metropolitan area during 2000 and 2003. In total, 227 macrolide-non-susceptible pneumococcal isolates were studied. Increases in macrolide non-susceptibility, from 23% to 30.3% (p <0.05), and in macrolide and penicillin co-resistance, from 3.4% to 48.6% (p <0.001), were identified during the study period. The M resistance phenotype, associated with the presence of the mef(A)/(E) gene, predominated in both surveys, and isolates carrying both mef(A)/(E) and erm(AM) were identified, for the first time in Greece, among the isolates from the 2003 survey. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis analysis of the isolates from the 2000 survey indicated the spread of a macrolide- and penicillin-resistant clone among day-care centres. The serogroups identified most commonly in the study were 19F, 6A, 6B, 14 and 23F, suggesting that the theoretical protection of the seven-valent conjugate vaccine against macrolide-non-susceptible isolates was c. 85% during both study periods.

Bacterial Proteins↗

Prevalence of psychological disorders in the Athens area. Prediction of causal factors.

A two-phase cross-sectional study on the prevalence of psychological disorders was carried out in a sample of 1,574 adult male and female residents of two boroughs in the greater Athens area. The analysis focused on the detection of any possible effects (risk factors) that personal data (such as sociodemographic profile, use of psychiatric services, medication and experience of stressful life events) may have on mental health; information about the latter was assessed by Langner's scale. The findings are that all the independent variables investigated affect the respondents' psychological status, although interactive effects between variables predicted different patterns of psychopathological symptom formation.

Adult↗