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PubMed1997

Assessing Risk in Operational Decisions Using Great Lakes Probabilistic Water Level Forecasts

/ A method adapted from the National Weather Service's Extended Streamflow Prediction technique is applied retrospectively to three Great Lakes case studies to show how risk assessment using probabilistic monthly water level forecasts could have contributed to the decision-mak-ing process. The first case study examines the 1985 International Joint Commission (IJC) decision to store water in Lake Superior to reduce high levels on the downstream lakes. Probabilistic forecasts are generated for Lake Superior and Lakes Michigan-Huron and used with riparian inundation value functions to assess the relative impacts of the IJC's decision on riparian interests for both lakes. The second case study evaluates the risk of flooding at Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and the need to implement flood-control projects if Lake Michigan levels were to continue to rise above the October 1986 record. The third case study quantifies the risks of impaired municipal water works operation during the 1964-1965 period of extreme low water levels on Lakes Huron, St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario. Further refinements and other potential applications of the probabilistic forecast technique are discussed.KEY WORDS: Great Lakes; Water levels; Forecasting; Risk; Decision making

Journal Article↗
PubMed2004

The relationship between specialization and local abundance: the case of helminth parasites of birds.

Positive relationships are commonly observed between the abundance of a species in a locality and the frequency of its occurrence among localities on a larger scale. This pattern may not hold for parasitic organisms when the average abundance of a parasite among its hosts is related to the number of host species in which it occurs, because of the additive investment in specific adaptations to counter host immune responses required for each host species in a parasite's repertoire. For a rigorous test of the hypothesis that there is a trade-off between the number of host species that can be successfully exploited and the average abundance of parasites in those hosts, one needs to take into account the phylogenetic (or taxonomic) distances among the host species used by a parasite. Differences in immune responses are likely to increase with increasing phylogenetic distances. The trade-off hypothesis was tested in a comparative analysis of 393 species of trematodes, cestodes and nematodes parasitic in birds surveyed from the same geographical area, using an index of host specificity that measures the average taxonomic distances between a parasite's known host species. After correcting for the influences of parasite phylogeny and other potential confounding variables, mean abundance was negatively correlated with the average taxonomic distance among host species for nematodes, and with the variance in taxonomic distances among hosts for cestodes. In the case of trematodes, these variables covaried positively. The trade-off between average infection success and how taxonomically distant a parasite's host species are from each other was only found in two of the three groups of helminths investigated, possibly because of compensating features in trematodes, such as their ability to multiply asexually in intermediate hosts. These results provide empirical evidence consistent with the hypothesis that specialization allows greater local adaptation and therefore greater local population abundance, supporting key predictions regarding the evolution of ecological specialization.

Analysis of Variance↗
PubMed1996

Photoperiodic response in the soft tick, Ornithodoros turicata.

The effects of photoperiod on the feeding, development and quiescent behavior of the burrow-dwelling soft tick, Ornithodoros turicata (Dugès) were investigated. Ticks were assigned randomly to either continuous darkness (DD), a short-day photoperiod (L:D 10:14), a long-day photoperiod (L:D 14:10) or constant light (LL). Ticks reared under constant light succumbed to much higher mortality than those reared under the other conditions. However, photoperiod did not induce quiescent behavior in O. turicata; the ticks were active and fed regularly throughout the study. Also, ticks reared in continuous darkness developed more slowly than those reared under short-day or long-day conditions. In contrast, pre-oviposition period was significantly longer for ticks reared in long-day conditions. Egg-hatch success was significantly higher for ticks reared in continuous darkness than for those reared under the photoperiods. The stage-specific effects of photoperiod on O. turicata are adaptive; these ticks very likely utilize photoperiod information to predict seasonal conditions.

Animals↗
PubMed1987

Erythrocyte 3H-ouabain binding and digitalis treatment in ethanol addicted patients.

The binding of 3H-ouabain to human erythrocytes was analyzed in a population of hospitalized male ethanol addicted patients under long term digitalis treatment. In the non-alcoholic patient group the long term digitalis treatment induced an increase in Bmax and Kd values; such modification was not observed in the alcoholic patients. Chronic alcohol intake itself induced an increase in 3H-ouabain kinetic parameters. These observations confirm that ouabain binding to human erythrocytes is subject to pharmacological and toxicological regulation and that adaptive changes in peripheral tissues can be useful in predicting possible parallel modifications in other less accessible tissues.

Adult↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Circadian rhythms.

Circadian rhythms are a ubiquitous adaptation of eukaryotic organisms to the most reliable and predictable of environmental changes, the daily cycles of light and temperature. Prominent daily rhythms in behavior, physiology, hormone levels and biochemistry (including gene expression) are not merely responses to these environmental cycles, however, but embody the organism's ability to keep and tell time. At the core of circadian systems is a mysterious mechanism, located in the brain (actually the suprachiasmatic nucleus of the hypothalamus) of mammals, but present even in unicellular organisms, that functions as a clock. This clock drives circadian rhythms. It is independent of, but remains responsive to, environmental cycles (especially light). The interest in temporal regulation--its organization, mechanism and consequences--unites investigators in diverse disciplines studying otherwise disparate systems. This diversity is reflected in the brief reviews that summarize the presentations at a meeting on circadian rhythms held in New York City on October 31, 1992. The meeting was sponsored by the Fondation pour l'Etude du Système Nerveux (FESN) and followed a larger meeting held 18 months earlier in Geneva, whose proceedings have been published (M. Zatz (Ed.), Report of the Ninth FESN Study Group on 'Circadian Rhythms', Discussions in Neuroscience, Vol. VIII, Nos. 2 + 3, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1992). Some speakers described progress made in the interim, while others addressed aspects of the field not previously covered.

Aging↗
PubMed1989

Thermoregulatory patterns of two sympatric rodents: Otomys unisulcatus and Parotomys brantsii.

1. The adaptations to an arid environment in two closely related rodent species were investigated. 2. The rate of oxygen consumption (VO2), body temperature (Tb), evaporative water loss and minimal conductance in Otomys unisulcatus and Parotomys brantsii were determined under controlled conditions at ambient temperatures (Ta), ranging from 11-31 C. 3. Physiological features atypical of desert-adapted rodents include a basal metabolic rate higher than predicted by body mass, the low "lower critical temperature" and symptoms of heat stress at 31 degrees C. 4. The low Tb and wide thermoneutral zone recorded for both species are characteristic of desert rodent species. 5. These species' physiological abilities reflect their mesic phylogeny and we suggest that behaviour must play an important role in their survival in semi-arid areas.

Acclimatization↗
PubMed2006

The influence of risk status on guideline adherence for patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes.

BACKGROUND: Practice guidelines for patients with non-ST-segment elevation (NSTE) acute coronary syndromes (ACS) recommend targeting evidence-based therapies for the highest-risk patients. We characterized guideline adherence for NSTE ACS by risk status. METHODS: We analyzed inhospital treatments and outcomes for 77760 patients with NSTE ACS (ischemic ST-segment changes and/or positive cardiac markers) included in the CRUSADE initiative from January 2001 to September 2003 at 457 US hospitals. Compliance with the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Class guideline recommendations for NSTE ACS was evaluated in subgroups of eligible patients without listed contraindications at increased risk for mortality and among risk categories designated by an adapted version of the PURSUIT risk model designed to predict inhospital mortality. RESULTS: Inhospital mortality was increased in patients with diabetes mellitus (5.8% vs 4.3%), renal insufficiency (10.0% vs 3.9%), signs of congestive heart failure on presentation (10.6% vs 3.1%), and age > or = 75 years (8.6% vs 2.7%), compared with patients without these features. Use of guideline-recommended acute medications, invasive cardiac procedures, and discharge medications and interventions was significantly lower in patients with these high-risk features. Patients designated as high-risk for inhospital mortality were less likely to be treated with guideline-recommended therapies compared with low-risk and moderate-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with NSTE ACS with the highest risk of mortality are less likely to receive guideline-recommended therapies and interventions. These findings highlight the need to clarify guideline recommendations for high-risk patients and to develop novel quality improvement approaches that target undertreated subgroups of patients with NSTE ACS.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed2005

Decision making: the virtue of patience in primates.

Marmoset monkeys devalue rewards requiring travel to acquire, but tamarin monkeys do not, despite the greater patience of marmosets when rewards are delayed in time. Such preference reversals, not predicted by standard economic theory, may reflect behavioral mechanisms adaptively specialized for different spatial and temporal patterns of foraging.

Adaptation, Biological↗
PubMed2006

Variability: the common factor linking low dose-induced genomic instability, adaptation and bystander effects.

The characteristics of low dose radiation-induced genomic instability, adaptive responses, and bystander effects were compared in order to probe possible underlying mechanisms, and develop models for predicting response to in vivo low dose radiation exposures. While there are some features that are common to all three (e.g., absence of a true dose-response, the multiple endpoints affected by each), other characteristics appear to distinguish one from the other (e.g., TP53 involvement, LET response, influence of DNA repair). Each of the responses is also highly variable; not all cell and tissue models show the same response and there is much interindividual variation in response. Most of these studies have employed in vitro cell culture or tissue explant models, and understanding underlying mechanisms and the biological significance of these low dose-responses will require study of tissue-specific in vivo endpoints. The in vitro studies strongly suggest that modeling low dose radiation effects will be a complex process, and will likely require separate study of each of these low dose phenomena. Knowledge of instability responses, for example, may not aid in predicting other low dose effects in the same tissue.

Adaptation, Biological↗
PubMed2004

In situ metrology of 85Kr plumes released by the COGEMA La Hague nuclear reprocessing plant.

The IRSN (Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, France) has started an in situ study of the behaviour of atmospheric releases close-by the COGEMA La Hague nuclear reprocessing plant. The study is designed to improve information on the dispersion of radioactive pollutants very close to the emission point--a 100 m height chimney. In this situation, close to the emission and height of the emission, Gaussian models generally used to predict the behaviour of atmospheric releases are not well adapted. The study is based on the characterisation of the 85Kr emitted during normal operations of the reprocessing process. Temporal and spatial variations of the plume shape were investigated with intensive in situ measurements. Live in situ techniques to measure the electrons and the photons emitted by the 85Kr have been implemented and will be described. Preliminary results showing the interest of the techniques were presented. Variations of the dose rates created by the photon flux of a plume were directly measured and correlated to other quantities.

Belgium↗
PubMed1993

Sequencing treatment for naso-orbito-ethmoid fractures.

This article presents a strategy for treating naso-orbito-ethmoid fractures. Eight steps for the management of such injuries are presented: surgical exposure, identification of the medial canthal tendon/tendon-bearing bone fragment, reduction/reconstruction of medial orbital rim, reconstruction of the medial orbital wall, transnasal canthopexy, reduction of septal fractures, nasal dorsum reconstruction/augmentation, and soft tissue adaptation. Following these steps can make treatment outcomes more predictable.

Cerebrospinal Fluid Rhinorrhea↗
PubMed2003

A tyrosine residue in TM6 of the Vanilloid Receptor TRPV1 involved in desensitization and calcium permeability of capsaicin-activated currents.

The Vanilloid Receptor TRPV1 is a non-selective cation channel with a high relative Ca(2+) permeability. TRPV1 exhibits slow desensitization, a potential mechanism regulating adaptation of peripheral sensory neurons to noxious stimuli. The predicted folding pattern of TRPV1 resembles that of voltage-gated channels. Sequence alignment of segments 6 of TRPV1 and voltage-gated Na(+) channels reveals a conserved aromatic amino acid that in Na(+) channels is involved in fast inactivation and pharmacological block. We found that replacing this tyrosine Y671 by positively charged lysine (K) completely abrogated Ca(2+)-dependent desensitization. Y671K also exhibited significant reduction in Ca(2+) permeability that was not responsible for the lack in desensitization. Substitution of Y671 with negatively charged aspartate or uncharged alanine slightly altered desensitization but left Ca(2+) permeability unchanged. Substitution of Y671 with positively charged arginine produced a phenotype similar to Y671K. We propose that residue Y671 is critical for the high relative Ca(2+) permeability of TRPV1 and participates in the structural rearrangements of the channel protein leading to Ca(2+)-dependent desensitization.

Amino Acid Sequence↗
PubMed2006

Implications of pulsed chemical exposures for aquatic life criteria and wastewater permit limits.

Subacute effects of pulsed copper, zinc, or ammonia exposures were examined, including a range of pulse concentrations, durations, frequencies, and recovery times between pulses, using short-term chronic Pimephales promelas and 21-d Daphnia magna tests. Sublethal effects were rarely observed independent of mortality. Effects were observed only at concentrations near the species continuous exposure 48 h LC50 for each chemical. Daphnia often rebounded from temporary reproduction effects, meeting or exceeding control responses by the end of the test. Effects of 24 h ammonia or copper pulses were diminished soon after the pulse was removed, while 24 h zinc pulses caused continued effects for several days following removal of the pulse, indicating a slower uptake and/or depuration rate for zinc. D. magna exhibited less mortality as copper pulses were spaced further apart, while fish were equally or more affected with longer recovery times between copper pulses, indicative of different adaptation mechanisms between the two species. Responses were not predictable based on either average concentration or a combination of duration and concentration. Chronic water quality criteria and effluent permit limits, expressed as a 4- or 30-d average concentration, respectively, may not be appropriate for protecting against effects of pulsed exposures, depending on the frequency, magnitude, and duration of pulses, as well as the recovery period between events.

Ammonia↗
PubMed2005

On the stability of IrCl6(3-) and other triply charged anions: solvent stabilization versus ionic fragmentation and electron detachment for the IrCl6(3-).(H2O)n n = 0-10 microsolvated clusters.

The intrinsic gas-phase stability of the IrCl(6)(3-) trianion and its microsolvated clusters, IrCl(6)(3-).(H(2)O)(n) n = 1-10, have been investigated using density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Although IrCl(6)(3-) is known to exist as a stable complex ion in bulk solutions, our calculations indicate that the bare trianion is metastable with respect to decay via both electron detachment and ionic fragmentation. To estimate the lifetime of IrCl(6)(3-), we have computed the electron tunneling probability using an adaption of the Wentzel-Kramer-Brillouin theory and predict that the trianion will decay spontaneously via electron tunneling on a time scale of 2.4 x 10(-13) s. The global minimum structure for IrCl(6)(3-).H(2)O was found to contain a bifurcated hydrogen bond, whereas for IrCl(6)(3-).(H(2)O)(2), two low energy minima were identified; one involving two bifurcated water-ion hydrogen bonds and a second combining a bifurcated hydrogen bond with a water-water hydrogen bond. Clusters based on each of these structural motifs were obtained for all of the n = 3-10 systems, and the effect of solvation on the possible decay pathways was explored. The calculations reveal that solvation stabilizes IrCl(6)(3-) with respect to both electron detachment decay and ionic fragmentation, with the magnitude of the repulsive Coulomb barrier for ionic fragmentation increasing smoothly with sequential solvation. This study is the first to compare the propensity for electron detachment versus ionic fragmentation decay for a sequentially solvated triply charged anion.

Journal Article↗
PubMed1991

How neuroticism, long-term difficulties, and life situation change influence psychological distress: a longitudinal model.

The causal relationships between neuroticism (N), long-term difficulties (LTDs), life situation change (LSC), and psychological distress (PD) were examined using self-report and interview data from a 7-year, 3-wave study in a general population sample (N = 296). LTDs were classified as either endogenous (dependent) or exogenous (independent). We found that earlier neuroticism had a strong direct and a moderate indirect effect (through endogenous LTDs) on PD. The direct effect was strikingly stronger than those of LTDs and LSC. In addition, much correlation between endogenous LTDs, LSC, and PD could be attributed to the confounding effects of earlier neuroticism. High neuroticism tended to strengthen the effect of LSC on PD. These findings suggest that temperamental dispositions are more powerful than environmental factors in predicting PD.

Adaptation, Psychological↗
PubMed2005

Sex increases the efficacy of natural selection in experimental yeast populations.

Why sex evolved and persists is a problem for evolutionary biology, because sex disrupts favourable gene combinations and requires an expenditure of time and energy. Further, in organisms with unequal-sized gametes, the female transmits her genes at only half the rate of an asexual equivalent (the twofold cost of sex). Many modern theories that provide an explanation for the advantage of sex incorporate an idea originally proposed by Weismann more than 100 years ago: sex allows natural selection to proceed more effectively because it increases genetic variation. Here we test this hypothesis, which still lacks robust empirical support, with the use of experiments on yeast populations. Capitalizing on recent advances in the molecular biology of recombination in yeast, we produced by genetic manipulation strains that differed only in their capacity for sexual reproduction. We show that, as predicted by the theory, sex increases the rate of adaptation to a new harsh environment but has no measurable effect on fitness in a new benign environment where there is little selection.

Biological Evolution↗
PubMed2003

Assessment of phonology in preschool African American Vernacular English speakers using an alternate response mode.

The purpose of this study was to determine whether an adapted stimulus elicitation format would reduce the amount of final consonant absence in African American Vernacular English (AAVE) speakers and to determine the extent to which the adapted and standard response formats would differ in their predictions of membership in a delayed and a typical group. Findings revealed that the alternate response mode resulted in statistically significant decreases in the use of final consonant absence and that it was less likely than the standard response mode to penalize the AAVE speaker to a degree that was clinically significant.

Black or African American↗
PubMed2003

Colour polymorphism in birds: causes and functions.

We studied polymorphism in all species of birds that are presently known to show intraspecific variation in plumage colour. At least three main mechanisms have been put forward to explain the maintenance of polymorphism: apostatic, disruptive and sexual selection. All of them make partly different predictions. Our aims were to investigate evolutionary causes and adaptive functions of colour polymorphism by taking into account a number of ecological and morphological features of polymorphic species. Overall, we found 334 species showing colour polymorphism, which is 3.5% of all bird species. The occurrence of colour polymorphism was very high in Strigiformes, Ciconiiformes, Cuculiformes and Galliformes. Phylogenetically corrected analysis using independent contrasts revealed that colour polymorphism was maximally expressed in species showing a daily activity rhythm extended to day/night, living in both open and closed habitats. All these findings support the hypothesis that colour polymorphism probably evolved under selective pressures linked to bird detectability as affected by variable light conditions during activity period. Thus, we conclude that selective agents may be prey, predators and competitors, and that colour polymorphism in birds may be maintained by disruptive selection.

Adaptation, Physiological↗