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PubMed1992

The value of transesophageal atrial pacing in predicting the efficacy of antiarrhythmic drugs in patients with paroxysmal narrow QRS complex tachycardia.

Transesophageal atrial pacing (TAP) is used in the diagnosis and treatment of paroxysmal narrow QRS complex tachycardia (NQT). The aim of this study was to assess the value of this technique in predicting the efficacy of antiarrhythmic therapy. The study group consisted of 30 consecutive patients with spontaneous NQT whose clinical tachycardia was inducible by TAP. Baseline TAP was performed off all antiarrhythmic medication and repeated during oral antiarrhythmic drug therapy. The pacing protocol consisted of three stages: a single extrastimulus introduced at progressively shorter coupling intervals during sinus rhythm, pacing at incremental rates to the point of second-degree AV block, and bursts of rapid pacing. On repeat stimulation while on oral antiarrhythmic therapy (37 pacing studies) NQT was still inducible in 12 cases. During the follow-up period ten patients developed a recurrence of NQT:nine cases out of 12 (75%), in whom NQT was inducible while on antiarrhythmic therapy, and one case out of 25 (4%), in whom NQT was not inducible (P less than 0.001). The sensitivity of TAP in predicting the outcome of the patients with NQT was 90%, and the specificity 89%. The negative predictive value of TAP (prediction of no recurrence of NQT) was 96%, and the positive predictive value (prediction of recurrence of NQT) was 75%. We conclude that TAP is a simple and accurate method for predicting the efficacy of antiarrhythmic treatment in patients with NQT.

Adult↗
PubMed1998

Prediction of maintenance of sinus rhythm after cardioversion of atrial fibrillation by analysis of serial signal-averaged P waves.

After cardioversion from atrial fibrillation (AF) many patients develop early recurrence of the arrhythmia. While these patients may be appropriate for immediate prophylaxis against AF recurrence their identification at the time of cardioversion is not possible. Since the signal-averaged P wave (SAPW) is abnormal in individuals with atrial arrhythmia, we assessed its utility for predicting early AF recurrence after cardioversion. Seventy-five cardioversions in 31 patients were evaluated. The mean age was 59 (range 28-79) years; 26 were male. Fifty-eight cardioversions were internal using low energy biphasic DC shocks delivered via electrodes placed in the right atrial appendage and coronary sinus. P wave specific signal averaging was performed at 3 and 24 hours after each cardioversion to estimate filtered P wave duration and energy from 20, 40, and 60 to 150 Hz. Follow-up was by regular clinic visits and transtelephonic ECG monitoring. Early recurrence of AF (prospectively defined as sinus rhythm duration < 1 week) occurred after 30 cardioversions. No differences were found in any P wave variable measured at 3 hours between these cardioversions and those that resulted in a longer duration of sinus rhythm. Paired 3- and 24-hour signal-averaged data were available in 47 cardioversions. There were significant falls in P wave energy from 3 to 24 hours after 31 cardioversions that resulted in sinus rhythm for > 1 week, (P40: 3 hours 11.2 [+/- 1.5] micro V2.s, 24 hours 8.6 [+/- 1.2] micro V2.s, P < 0.001), but not following the 16 after which AF returned within 1 week (P40: 3 hours 9.0 [+/- 1.2] micro V2.s, 24 hours 8.5 [+/- 1.2 micro V2.s, P = NS). A fall in P40 of > 25% had a positive predictive accuracy for maintenance of sinus rhythm of 87%; negative predictive accuracy was only 37%. Similar falls in P wave energy occurred after cardioversions that resulted in longer term (> 4 weeks) sinus rhythm, but not in those that did not. However, the predictive accuracy of a fall in P40 was less (positive predictive accuracy 38%, negative predictive accuracy 62%). Patients with relapsing permanent AF who remain in sinus rhythm for at least 1 week after cardioversion show a fall in P wave energy within the first 24 hours. However, in these patients the technique does not predict recurrent AF within 1 week nor sinus rhythm > 4 weeks. These observations suggest persistent disordered atrial activation as a mechanism for early recurrence of AF after cardioversion.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Is the ACLS score a valid prediction rule for survival after cardiac arrest?

UNLABELLED: The ACLS (advanced cardiac life support) Score was previously developed to predict survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Whether the arrest was witnessed, initial cardiac rhythm, performance of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), and the response time of the paramedic unit were determined to be predictive of survival. However, the ACLS Score has not been validated in other emergency medical services systems. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to externally validate the ACLS Score in one patient population. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study performed at an urban county teaching hospital. The study population consisted of consecutive adult patients treated for out-of-hospital, nontraumatic cardiac arrest, and transported to the authors' institution between November 1, 1994, and September 30, 2001. Patient records for all cardiac arrests during the study period were reviewed. Study variables included witnessed arrest, initial arrest rhythm, bystander CPR, paramedic response time, and survival to hospital discharge. Predicted probability of survival to hospital discharge was calculated for each patient using the ACLS Score. The overall predicted and observed survival rates were compared using Flora's Z score. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the model's goodness-of-fit over a range of survival probabilities. RESULTS: Of 754 cardiac arrest patients enrolled in the study period, 575 (76%) patients had documentation that allowed scoring using the ACLS Score. Twenty-five (4%) patients survived to hospital discharge. The predicted number of survivors based on the ACLS Score was 104 (18%), yielding a Flora's Z statistic of -4.46 (p < 0.0001). After categorizing predicted survival probabilities into four categories, the resulting Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 210 (p << 10(-6)). Both goodness-of-fit statistics demonstrated extremely poor fit of the model. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was created, yielding an area under the ROC curve of 0.33 (95% CI = 0.19 to 0.47), signifying extremely poor discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: The previously published ACLS Score was not valid when applied to an external cohort of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients. An externally valid model is needed to predict survival to hospital discharge following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

Advanced Cardiac Life Support↗
PubMed2002

Predictive factors of GI lesions in 241 women with iron deficiency anemia.

OBJECTIVES: GI blood loss is the most common cause of iron deficiency anemia (IDA) in postmenopausal women and menstrual blood loss in premenopausal women. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic yield of endoscopy in women with IDA and to define predictive factors of a GI lesion. METHOD: Clinical, biological, endoscopic, and histological data from patients with IDA were systematically collected on a computer. Multivariate analysis (logistic regression) was performed to determine whether these data were associated with a GI lesion. RESULTS: Between January, 1989 and June, 1999, 241 consecutive women had endoscopies for IDA (mean age = 52.3 +/- 21.8 yr). A substantial GI lesion was detected in 119 patients (49.4%). Ten patients (4%) had both upper and lower GI lesions. A source of IDA was revealed by upper endoscopy in 86 cases (35.6%) and by colonoscopy in 33 (13.7%). The most common upper lesions were peptic ulceration (42/241 [17.4%]), esophagitis (15/241 [6.2%]), and cancer (9/241 [3.7%]). Colonic cancer (15/241 [6.2%]) and polyps (10/241 [4.1%]) were the most frequent lesions detected by colonoscopy. Predictive factors (odds ratio, 95% CI) of GI lesions diagnosed by endoscopy were abdominal symptoms (8.3, 3.9-17.2), age > 50 yr (4.4, 2.1-9.2), and Hb < 9 g/dl (3, 1.5-6.1). Thirty-one women (13%) had none of these predictive factors; in this group only two lesions were identified (one esophagitis and one duodenal ulcer). The positive predictive value of these three independent predictors was 87%, and the negative predictive value was 93.5%. CONCLUSION: Endoscopy revealed a source of IDA in 49.4% of cases. Three predictive factors of GI lesion were identified. Endoscopic investigation should be avoided in women without these three predictive factors. Conversely, these factors are strongly associated with a GI lesion.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Predicting survival among patients listed for liver transplantation: an assessment of serial MELD measurements.

We examined whether consideration of repeated model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) measurements for patients listed for liver transplantation improves predictive value beyond current MELD alone. Clinical data were extracted for all adult primary liver transplantation candidates from our institution who were listed with the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) between 1990 and 1999. Serum creatinine, bilirubin, and international normalized ratio (INR) were obtained from an institutional laboratory database. Cox models were constructed using current MELD, change in MELD (Delta), and number of MELD scores to predict survival on the waiting list. Eight hundred and sixty-one patients met inclusion criteria, 639 underwent transplantation, and 80 died while waiting. A one-unit increment in current MELD imparted significant hazard ratios ranging from 1.12 to 1.19 in all models. Delta MELD was predictive of mortality univariately, but less predictive when current MELD was included, and not predictive when considered with both current and number of MELD scores. Overall, current MELD is the single most important determinant of mortality risk on the waiting list. Delta MELD is predictive of death only within 4 d of the event; however, part of this correlates with the dying process itself, thus limiting Delta MELD's utility in survival prediction models.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

Predictive value of umbilical cord blood bilirubin for postnatal hyperbilirubinaemia.

AIM: The study investigated the predictive value of umbilical cord serum (UCS) bilirubin for the postnatal course of bilirubinaemia in healthy term and near-term newborns. METHODS: Term appropriate-for-gestational-age (AGA; n=1100), small-for-gestational-age (SGA; n=163) and near-term infants (GA 34-36 wk; n=78) were included and separated according to their UCS bilirubin levels, starting from <20 (group 1), 20-<30 (2), 30-40 (3) and >40 (4) micromol/l. The newborns were followed for at least 5 postnatal days, and UCS bilirubin values were correlated with the development of hyperbilirubinaemia and phototherapy (PT) treatment. RESULTS: A clear relation between UCS bilirubin and the development of hyperbilirubinaemia was found in all three patient populations. None of the 75 AGA patients of group 1 developed postnatal bilirubin values above 300 micromol/l, whereas 0.3, 3.4 and 8.6% of the patients in groups 2-4, respectively, did so. The frequency of PT increased from 0% in group 1 up to 9.6% in group 4. For the prediction of further need of PT using a UCS bilirubin cut-off level of 30 micromol/l, we found a sensitivity of 90% and a negative predictive value of 99.1%, indicating that all patients with UCS bilirubin values below 30 micromol/l (443/1100 or 40.2%) were at a very low risk of developing dangerous hyperbilirubinaemia. Similar results were obtained in SGA children with a sensitivity of 94.1% and a negative predictive value of 98.6%. In comparison to term newborns, we generally found higher bilirubin values in preterms. A total of 6.4% of preterm children developed bilirubin values over 300 micromol/l, compared with 3% of term children, and 47.4% of preterms had to be treated with PT. Predicting the need of PT by using a UCS bilirubin cut-off level of 30 micromol/l revealed a sensitivity of 70.3% and a negative predictive value of 65.6%. CONCLUSION: These data suggest that UCS bilirubin is useful in predicting the postnatal bilirubin values in term and near-term newborns. We presume that the use of UCS bilirubin values may help detect infants at low risk for postnatal hyperbilirubinaemia and minimize an unnecessary prolongation of hospitalization.

Bilirubin↗
PubMed1997

Predictions of carbamazepine concentrations using a Bayesian program (PKS System, Abbott): a retrospective evaluation in an outpatient population.

This work evaluates the performance of a Bayesian program (PKS System, Abbott) for predicting carbamazepine concentrations in an outpatient population. The retrospective study involved 20 epileptic patients (12 adults and 8 children) receiving carbamazepine monotherapy orally. The program was used to predict measured serum levels after feedback of 0, 1 or 2 steady-state concentrations. A significant negative prediction bias was observed when no feedback concentration was used for estimation. However, the prediction bias (mean prediction error; m.e.) decreased as soon as one feedback concentration was used for estimation. Precision (mean absolute prediction error; m.a.e.) was significantly improved with one feedback concentration and was even better with two concentrations. Likewise, r.m.s.e. (root mean squared error; composite of bias and precision) regularly decreased when the number of feedback concentrations used was increased. Eleven percent of the estimates were unacceptable clinically (prediction error > 2 mg L-1) when 1 feedback concentration was used; less than 3% were unacceptable when two concentrations were used. Thus the performance of the Bayesian dosing program is acceptable when two feedback concentrations are known, and seems able to help the clinician adjust carbamazepine dosage in an outpatient population.

Administration, Oral↗
PubMed2005

Benefit of hepatitis C virus core antigen assay in prediction of therapeutic response to interferon and ribavirin combination therapy.

A highly sensitive second-generation hepatitis C virus (HCV) core antigen assay has recently been developed. We compared viral disappearance and first-phase kinetics between commercially available core antigen (Ag) assays, Lumipulse Ortho HCV Ag (Lumipulse-Ag), and a quantitative HCV RNA PCR assay, Cobas Amplicor HCV Monitor test, version 2 (Amplicor M), to estimate the predictive benefit of a sustained viral response (SVR) and non-SVR in 44 genotype 1b patients treated with interferon (IFN) and ribavirin. HCV core Ag negativity could predict SVR on day 1 (sensitivity = 100%, specificity = 85.0%, accuracy = 86.4%), whereas RNA negativity could predict SVR on day 7 (sensitivity = 100%, specificity = 87.2%, accuracy = 88.6%). None of the patients who had detectable serum core Ag or RNA on day 14 achieved SVR (specificity = 100%). The predictive accuracy on day 14 was higher by RNA negativity (93.2%) than that by core Ag negativity (75.0%). The combined predictive criterion of both viral load decline during the first 24 h and basal viral load was also predictive for SVR; the sensitivities of Lumipulse-Ag and Amplicor-M were 45.5 and 47.6%, respectively, and the specificity was 100%. Amplicor-M had better predictive accuracy than Lumipulse-Ag in 2-week disappearance tests because it had better sensitivity. On the other hand, estimates of kinetic parameters were similar regardless of the detection method. Although the correlations between Lumipulse-Ag and Amplicor-M were good both before and 24 h after IFN administration, HCV core Ag seemed to be relatively lower 24 h after IFN administration than before administration. Lumipulse-Ag seems to be useful for detecting the HCV concentration during IFN therapy; however, we still need to understand the characteristics of the assay.

Adult↗
PubMed2000

Endosonographic features predictive of benign and malignant gastrointestinal stromal cell tumours.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Some endoscopic ultrasonographic (EUS) features have been reported to be suggestive of malignancy in gastrointestinal stromal cell tumours (SCTs). The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of these features for malignancy. METHODS: A total of 56 histologically proven cases of SCT studied by EUS between 1989 and 1996 were reviewed. There were 42 gastric tumours, 12 oesophageal tumours, and two rectal tumours. The tumours were divided into two groups: (a) benign SCT, comprising benign leiomyoma (n = 34); (b) malignant or borderline SCT (n = 22), comprising leiomyosarcoma (n = 9), leiomyoblastoma (n = 9), and leiomyoma of uncertain malignant potential (n = 4). The main EUS features recorded were tumour size, ulceration, echo pattern, cystic spaces, extraluminal margins, and lymph nodes with a malignant pattern. The two groups were compared by univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Irregular extraluminal margins, cystic spaces, and lymph nodes with a malignant pattern were most predictive of malignant or borderline SCT. Pairwise combinations of the three features had a specificity and positive predictive value of 100% for malignant or borderline SCT, but a sensitivity of only 23%. The presence of at least one of these three criteria had 91% sensitivity, 88% specificity, and 83% predictive positive value. In multivariate analysis, cystic spaces and irregular margins were the only two features independently predictive of malignant potential. The features most predictive of benign SCTs were regular margins, tumour size < or = 30 mm, and a homogeneous echo pattern. When the three features were combined, histology confirmed a benign SCT in all cases. CONCLUSIONS: The combined presence of two out of three EUS features (irregular extraluminal margins, cystic spaces, and lymph nodes with a malignant pattern) had a positive predictive value of 100% for malignant or borderline gastrointestinal SCT. Tumours less than 30 mm in diameter with regular margins and a homogeneous echo pattern are usually benign.

Adult↗
PubMed2001

Age and alarm symptoms do not predict endoscopic findings among patients with dyspepsia: a multicentre database study.

INTRODUCTION: Symptoms of dyspepsia are common but most patients do not have major upper gastrointestinal pathology. Endoscopy is recommended for dyspeptic patients over the age of 45, or those with certain "alarm" symptoms. We have evaluated the effectiveness of age and "alarm" symptoms for predicting major endoscopic findings in six practising endoscopy centres. METHODS: Clinical variables of consecutive patients with dyspepsia symptoms undergoing upper endoscopy examinations were recorded using a common endoscopy database. Patients who had no previous upper endoscopy or barium radiography were included. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression was used to identify predictors of endoscopic findings. The accuracy of these for predicting endoscopic findings was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic analysis. The sensitivity and specificity of age thresholds from 30 to 70 years were evaluated. RESULTS: Major pathology (tumour, ulcer, or stricture) was found at endoscopy in 787/3815 (21%) patients with dyspepsia. Age, male sex, bleeding, and anaemia were found to be significant but weak independent predictors of endoscopic findings. A multivariate prediction rule based on these factors had poor predictive accuracy (c statistic=0.62). Using a simplified prediction rule of age > or =45 years or the presence of any "alarm" symptom, sensitivity was 87% and specificity was 26%. Increasing or decreasing the age cut off did not significantly improve the predictive accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: Age and the presence of "alarm" symptoms are not effective predictors of endoscopic findings among patients with dyspepsia. Better clinical prediction strategies are needed to identify patients with significant upper gastrointestinal pathology.

Adult↗
PubMed1994

Temporal influences on the prediction of postinfarction mortality by heart rate variability: a comparison with the left ventricular ejection fraction.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the influence of the duration of follow up on the values of heart rate variability (HRV) and the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) for predicting mortality after infarction. BACKGROUND: HRV is an index of autonomic balance that identifies patients at a high risk of arrhythmic events. The index is most depressed during the first few weeks after myocardial infarction whereas left ventricular function tends to deteriorate with time. HYPOTHESIS: The value of depressed HRV measured before discharge from hospital for predicting mortality after infarction should decline with time. METHODS: The HRV and the LVEF were assessed in 433 survivors of a first acute myocardial infarction: HRV < 20 units and LVEF < 40% were taken as cut off points. Kaplan-Meier survival functions for total cardiac mortality and sudden cardiac death were calculated for the whole five year follow up period and for different intervening periods. RESULTS: During follow up of four weeks to five years there were 46 (10.6%) deaths and 15 (3.5%) patients died suddenly. Within the whole follow up period, HRV < 20 units and LVEF < 40% were both strongly associated with total cardiac mortality (p < 0.0001), but HRV was an independent predictor of total cardiac mortality only during the first six months of follow up. There were no deaths predicted by HRV < 20 units after the first year of follow up whereas LVEF < 40% had a sensitivity of 43% and a positive predictive accuracy of 9% for predicting death during this period. HRV < 20 units was better than LVEF < 40% in predicting sudden deaths during the first year of follow up but was an independent predictor only of those sudden deaths occurring within six months of infarction. CONCLUSIONS: The duration of follow up affects the prediction of sudden death and total cardiac mortality from HRV. Reduced HRV as measured before discharge from hospital does not seem to retain independent prognostic value after six months of follow up. These findings have potential implications for the serial evaluation of HRV and for the prevention of sudden death after myocardial infarction.

Death, Sudden, Cardiac↗
PubMed2004

Premorbid cognitive testing predicts the onset of dementia and Alzheimer's disease better than and independently of APOE genotype.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a cognitive test package can predict the onset of dementia up to 11 years later, and the extent to which this prediction is independent of that provided by APOE genotype. METHODS: Prospective cohort study based on 54 general practices in the UK; 657 survivors of the 1088 participants in the MRC treatment trial of hypertension in older adults were followed for up to 11 years; 370 participants (57% of survivors) were traced, screened for dementia, and genotyped for APOE in 1994. Baseline assessments included trail making test A, paired associated learning test, Raven's progressive matrices, and national adult reading test. At follow up, both mini-mental state examination and CAMCOG were used. Outcome measures were DSM-IIIR dementia and NINCDS-ADRDA possible and probable Alzheimer's disease. RESULTS: All the cognitive tests completed in 1983 predicted onset of dementia and Alzheimer's disease up to 11 years later, as did APOE genotype. Cognitive test performance was not associated with APOE genotype. Addition of cognitive tests increased the area under the ROC curve for the prediction of Alzheimer's disease provided by age, family history, and APOE genotype (0.81 v 0.69, p = 0.048); addition of APOE genotype did not increase the area under the ROC curve for the prediction provided by age, family history, and cognitive tests (0.81 v 0.77, p = 0.28). CONCLUSIONS: Simple tests of cognitive ability provide useful predictive information up to a decade before the onset of dementia. The predictive information provided is independent of, but not enhanced by, the addition of APOE genotype.

Aged↗
PubMed2006

Prospective comparison of three predictive rules for assessing severity of community-acquired pneumonia in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a leading infectious cause of death throughout the world, including Hong Kong. AIM: To compare the ability of three validated prediction rules for CAP to predict mortality in Hong Kong: the 20 variable Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), the 6-point CURB65 scale adopted by the British Thoracic Society and the simpler CRB65. METHODS: A prospective observational study of 1016 consecutive inpatients with CAP (583 men, mean (SD) age 72 (17) years) was performed in a university hospital in the New Territories of Hong Kong in 2004. The patients were classified into three risk groups (low, intermediate and high) according to each rule. The ability of the three rules to predict 30 day mortality was compared. RESULTS: The overall mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission rates were 8.6% and 4.0%, respectively. PSI, CURB65 and CRB65 performed similarly, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were 0.736 (95% CI 0.687 to 0.736), 0.733 (95% CI 0.679 to 0.787) and 0.694 (95% CI 0.634 to 0.753), respectively. All three rules had high negative predictive values but relatively low positive predictive values at all cut-off points. Larger proportions of patients were identified as low risk by PSI (47.2%) and CURB65 (43.3%) than by CRB65 (12.6%). CONCLUSION: All three predictive rules have a similar performance in predicting the severity of CAP, but CURB65 is more suitable than the other two for use in the emergency department because of its simplicity of application and ability to identify low-risk patients.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Acute ankle trauma: value of a short dedicated extremity MR imaging examination in prediction of need for treatment.

PURPOSE: To assess predictive value of a short magnetic resonance (MR) imaging examination with or instead of radiography performed in patients with acute ankle trauma to identify those who require additional treatment versus those who do not and can be discharged without further follow-up. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Informed consent was obtained from all participating patients, and the institutional review board approved the randomized controlled trial and use of data to create prediction models. In a prospective controlled trial, 197 patients with recent ankle trauma (92 women, 105 men) were randomized into two groups: those who underwent radiography and those who underwent a combination of radiography and MR imaging. Data about side of injury, trauma mechanism, and results of radiography and MR imaging were collected. Additional treatment was necessary in 109 of 197 patients after their initial hospital visit. With univariable and multivariable regression analysis, four models were created for prediction of treatment. RESULTS: In univariable analysis, age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval: 1.00, 1.04), radiographic results (OR, 7.92; 95% confidence interval: 3.17, 19.8), and positive or uncertain results in patients who underwent MR imaging versus patients who did not (OR, 2.42; 95% confidence interval: 1.25, 4.70) were predictive of treatment. In the multivariable analysis, positive or uncertain MR imaging results (OR, 2.61; 95% confidence interval: 1.28, 5.30) contributed significantly to prediction of subsequent treatment. Negative MR imaging results did not contribute significantly (OR, 0.66; 95% confidence interval: 0.27, 1.61). CONCLUSION: A limited MR imaging examination in initial evaluation of acute ankle injury with radiography has additional predictive value in identification of patients who need treatment but does not add significant information in identification of those who can be discharged without further follow-up. A limited MR imaging examination cannot replace radiography for prediction of need for additional treatment.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

Acute wrist trauma: value of a short dedicated extremity MR imaging examination in prediction of need for treatment.

PURPOSE: To assess predictive value of a short magnetic resonance (MR) imaging examination in addition to or instead of radiography in patients with acute wrist trauma to identify patients who require additional treatment versus those who do not and can be discharged without further follow-up. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Informed consent was obtained from all participating patients; the institutional review board approved the randomized controlled trial and use of data to create prediction models. Of 90 patients (37 female, 53 male; mean age, 40.0 years), 87 with acute wrist trauma were randomized to undergo radiography (n = 43) or radiography and a short MR imaging examination with low-field-strength dedicated extremity MR system (n = 44). Age, sex, trauma mechanism, presence of tenderness of the anatomic snuffbox, radiographic results, MR imaging results, and treatment data were collected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to create four models for prediction of treatment need. RESULTS: Thirty-six patients had one or more fractures; one patient had a marked soft-tissue lesion. In univariable analysis, age (odds ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval: 1.00, 1.05), anatomic snuffbox tenderness (odds ratio, 2.31; 95% confidence interval: 0.90, 5.96), radiographic results (odds ratio, 31.2; 95% confidence interval: 8.90, 109), and positive MR imaging results versus MR imaging not performed (odds ratio, 1.86; 95% confidence interval: 0.57, 6.06) were significantly predictive of treatment need. In multivariable analysis, radiographic results (odds ratio, 24.7; 95% confidence interval: 6.59, 93.1) and positive MR imaging results (odds ratio, 6.28; 95% confidence interval: 1.27, 31.0) were significantly predictive of treatment need. Negative MR imaging results were not significantly predictive (odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval: 0.20, 3.82). CONCLUSION: A short MR imaging examination with a low-field-strength MR imaging system following radiography in initial evaluation of patients with acute wrist trauma has additional value in prediction of treatment need; it does not have value in identification of patients who can be discharged without further follow-up.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Predicting response to methotrexate, vinblastine, doxorubicin, and cisplatin neoadjuvant chemotherapy for bladder cancers through genome-wide gene expression profiling.

PURPOSE: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy for invasive bladder cancer, involving a regimen of methotrexate, vinblastine, doxorubicin, and cisplatin (M-VAC), can improve the resectability of larger neoplasms for some patients and offer a better prognosis. However, some suffer severe adverse drug reactions without any effect, and no method yet exists for predicting the response of an individual patient to chemotherapy. Our purpose in this study is to establish a method for predicting response to the M-VAC therapy. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We analyzed gene expression profiles of biopsy materials from 27 invasive bladder cancers using a cDNA microarray consisting of 27,648 genes, after populations of cancer cells had been purified by laser microbeam microdissection. RESULTS: We identified dozens of genes that were expressed differently between nine "responder" and nine "nonresponder" tumors; from that list we selected the 14 "predictive" genes that showed the most significant differences and devised a numerical prediction scoring system that clearly separated the responder group from the nonresponder group. This system accurately predicted the drug responses of 8 of 9 test cases that were reserved from the original 27 cases. Because real-time reverse transcription-PCR data were highly concordant with the cDNA microarray data for those 14 genes, we developed a quantitative reverse transcription-PCR-based prediction system that could be feasible for routine clinical use. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the sensitivity of an invasive bladder cancer to the M-VAC neoadjuvant chemotherapy can be predicted by expression patterns in this set of genes, a step toward achievement of "personalized therapy" for treatment of this disease.

Aged↗
PubMed2006

Predicting cancer drug response by proteomic profiling.

PURPOSE: Accurate prediction of an individual patient's drug response is an important prerequisite of personalized medicine. Recent pharmacogenomics research in chemosensitivity prediction has studied the gene-drug correlation based on transcriptional profiling. However, proteomic profiling will more directly solve the current functional and pharmacologic problems. We sought to determine whether proteomic signatures of untreated cells were sufficient for the prediction of drug response. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: In this study, a machine learning model system was developed to classify cell line chemosensitivity exclusively based on proteomic profiling. Using reverse-phase protein lysate microarrays, protein expression levels were measured by 52 antibodies in a panel of 60 human cancer cell (NCI-60) lines. The model system combined several well-known algorithms, including random forests, Relief, and the nearest neighbor methods, to construct the protein expression--based chemosensitivity classifiers. The classifiers were designed to be independent of the tissue origin of the cells. RESULTS: A total of 118 classifiers of the complete range of drug responses (sensitive, intermediate, and resistant) were generated for the evaluated anticancer drugs, one for each agent. The accuracy of chemosensitivity prediction of all the evaluated 118 agents was significantly higher (P < 0.02) than that of random prediction. Furthermore, our study found that the proteomic determinants for chemosensitivity of 5-fluorouracil were also potential diagnostic markers of colon cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The results showed that it was feasible to accurately predict chemosensitivity by proteomic approaches. This study provides a basis for the prediction of drug response based on protein markers in the untreated tumors.

Antineoplastic Agents↗
PubMed1991

Predictive value of a negative exercise electrocardiogram.

Conventionally, if an exercise electrocardiogram does not show evidence of ischemia, the patient must have achieved at least 85% of the predicted maximum heart rate for that test to be considered negative. However, no documentation of the validity of this practice exists. Thus, we evaluated the exercise electrocardiograms of 164 patients who had also undergone coronary angiography within 6 months of the exercise test. The predictive value of a negative exercise electrocardiogram was determined for each percentage point between 50 and 90% of the age-predicted maximum heart rate achieved or exceeded. The predictive value was found to increase modestly between 65 and 80% of the predicted maximum heart rate with no major changes above or below this range. Thus, it appears reasonable (in the setting of a hospital-based exercise laboratory) to either consider a negative exercise electrocardiogram as a valid finding if at least 80% of the predicted maximum heart rate is achieved, or preferably to simply report the negative finding with the percent maximum heart rate attained and the proviso that the predictive value of the test is progressively improved as higher heart rates are attained.

Adult↗