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An information value based analysis of physical and climatic factors affecting dengue fever and dengue haemorrhagic fever incidence.

BACKGROUND: Vector-borne diseases are the most dreaded worldwide health problems. Although many campaigns against it have been conducted, Dengue Fever (DF) and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) are still the major health problems of Thailand. The reported number of dengue incidences in 1998 for the Thailand was 129,954, of which Sukhothai province alone reported alarming number of 682. It was the second largest epidemic outbreak of dengue after 1987. Government arranges the remedial facilities as and when dengue is reported. But, the best way to control is to prevent it from happening. This will be possible only when knowledge about the relationship of DF/DHF with climatic and physio-environmental agents is discovered. This paper explores empirical relationship of climatic factors rainfall, temperature and humidity with the DF/DHF incidences using multivariate regression analysis. Also, a GIS based methodology is proposed in this paper to explore the influence of physio-environmental factors on dengue incidences. Remotely sensed data provided important data about physical environment and have been used for many vector borne diseases. Information Values (IV) method was utilised to derive influence of various factors in the quantitative terms. Researchers have not applied this type of analysis for dengue earlier. Sukhothai province was selected for the case study as it had high number of dengue cases in 1998 and also due to its diverse physical setting with variety of land use/land cover types. RESULTS: Preliminary results demonstrated that physical factors derived from remotely sensed data could indicate variation in physical risk factors affecting DF/DHF. A composite analysis of these three factors with dengue incidences was carried out using multivariate regression analysis. Three empirical models ER-1, ER-2 and ER-3 were evaluated. It was found that these three factors have significant relation with DF/DHF incidences and can be related to the forecast expected number of dengue cases. The results have shown significantly high coefficient of determination if applied only for the rainy season using empirical relation-2 (ER-2). These results have shown further improvement once a concept of time lag of one month was applied using the ER-3 empirical relation. ER-3 model is most suitable for the Sukhothai province in predicting possible dengue incidence with 0.81 coefficient of determination. The spatial statistical relationship of various land use/land cover classes with dengue-affected areas was quantified in the form of information value received from GIS analysis. The highest information value was obtained for the Built-up area. This indicated that Built-up area has the maximum influence on the incidence of dengue. The other classes showing negative values indicate lesser influence on dengue epidemics. Agricultural areas have yielded moderate risk areas based on their medium high information values. Water bodies have shown significant information value for DF/DHF only in one district. Interestingly, forest had shown no influence on DF/DHF. CONCLUSION: This paper explores the potential of remotely sensed data and GIS technology to analyze the spatial factors affecting DF/DHF epidemic. Three empirical models were evaluated. It was found that Empirical Relatrion-3 (ER-3) has yielded very high coefficient of determination to forecast the number of DF/DHF incidence. An analysis of physio-environmental factors such as land use/land cover types with dengue incidence was carried out. Influence of these factors was obtained in quantitative terms using Information Value method in the GIS environment. It was found that built-up areas have highest influence and constitute the highest risk zones. Forest areas have no influence on DF/DHF epidemic. Agricultural areas have moderate risk in DF/DHF incidences. Finally the dengue risk map of the Sukhothai province was developed using Information Value method. Dengue risk map can be used by the Public Health Department as a base map for applying preventive measures to control the dengue outbreak. Public Health Department can initiate their effort once the ER-3 predicts a possibility of significant high dengue incidence. This will help in focussing the preventive measures being applied on priority in very high and high-risk zones and help in saving time and money.

Journal Article↗

Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change.

BACKGROUND: Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) compute the terrestrial carbon balance as well as the transient spatial distribution of vegetation. We study two scenarios of moderate and strong climate change (2.9 K and 5.3 K temperature increase over present) to investigate the spatial redistribution of major vegetation types and their carbon balance in the year 2100. RESULTS: The world's land vegetation will be more deciduous than at present, and contain about 125 billion tons of additional carbon. While a recession of the boreal forest is simulated in some areas, along with a general expansion to the north, we do not observe a reported collapse of the central Amazonian rain forest. Rather, a decrease of biomass and a change of vegetation type occurs in its northeastern part. The ability of the terrestrial biosphere to sequester carbon from the atmosphere declines strongly in the second half of the 21st century. CONCLUSION: Climate change will cause widespread shifts in the distribution of major vegetation functional types on all continents by the year 2100.

Journal Article↗

Impacts of large-scale climatic disturbances on the terrestrial carbon cycle.

BACKGROUND: The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere steadily increases as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions but with large interannual variability caused by the terrestrial biosphere. These variations in the CO2 growth rate are caused by large-scale climate anomalies but the relative contributions of vegetation growth and soil decomposition is uncertain. We use a biogeochemical model of the terrestrial biosphere to differentiate the effects of temperature and precipitation on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) during the two largest anomalies in atmospheric CO2 increase during the last 25 years. One of these, the smallest atmospheric year-to-year increase (largest land carbon uptake) in that period, was caused by global cooling in 1992/93 after the Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The other, the largest atmospheric increase on record (largest land carbon release), was caused by the strong El Niño event of 1997/98. RESULTS: We find that the LPJ model correctly simulates the magnitude of terrestrial modulation of atmospheric carbon anomalies for these two extreme disturbances. The response of soil respiration to changes in temperature and precipitation explains most of the modelled anomalous CO2 flux. CONCLUSION: Observed and modelled NEE anomalies are in good agreement, therefore we suggest that the temporal variability of heterotrophic respiration produced by our model is reasonably realistic. We therefore conclude that during the last 25 years the two largest disturbances of the global carbon cycle were strongly controlled by soil processes rather then the response of vegetation to these large-scale climatic events.

Journal Article↗

Climate change and mosquito-borne disease.

Global atmospheric temperatures are presently in a warming phase that began 250--300 years ago. Speculations on the potential impact of continued warming on human health often focus on mosquito-borne diseases. Elementary models suggest that higher global temperatures will enhance their transmission rates and extend their geographic ranges. However, the histories of three such diseases--malaria, yellow fever, and dengue--reveal that climate has rarely been the principal determinant of their prevalence or range; human activities and their impact on local ecology have generally been much more significant. It is therefore inappropriate to use climate-based models to predict future prevalence.

Animals↗

An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large U.S. cities and the possible impacts of a climate change.

A new air mass-based synoptic procedure is used to evaluate climate/mortality relationships as they presently exist and to estimate how a predicted global warming might alter these values. Forty-four large U.S. cities with metropolitan areas exceeding 1 million in population are analyzed. Sharp increases in mortality are noted in summer for most cities in the East and Midwest when two particular air masses are present. A very warm air mass of maritime origin is most important in the eastern United States, which when present can increase daily mortality by as many as 30 deaths in large cities. A hot, dry air mass is important in many cities, and, although rare in the East, can increase daily mortality by up to 50 deaths. Cities in the South and Southwest show lesser weather/mortality relationships in summer. During winter, air mass-induced increases in mortality are considerably less than in summer. Although daily winter mortality is usually higher than summer, the causes of death that are responsible for most winter mortality do not vary much with temperature. Using models that estimate climate change for the years 2020 and 2050, it is estimated that summer mortality will increase dramatically and winter mortality will decrease slightly, even if people acclimatize to the increased warmth. Thus, a sizable net increase in weather-related mortality is estimated if the climate warms as the models predict.

Aged↗

Development of the school organisational health questionnaire: a measure for assessing teacher morale and school organisational climate.

BACKGROUND: A growing body of empirical evidence suggests that organisational factors are more important than classroom specific issues in determining teacher morale. Accordingly, it is necessary to have available measures that accurately assess morale, as well as the organisational factors that are likely to underpin the experience of morale. AIM: Three studies were conducted with the aim of developing a psychometrically sound questionnaire that could be used to assess teacher morale and various dimensions of school organisational climate. SAMPLE: A total of 1,520 teachers from 18 primary and 26 secondary schools in the Australian state of Victoria agreed to participate in three separate studies (N = 615, 342 and 563 in Studies 1, 2 and 3, respectively) that were used to develop the questionnaire. The demographic profile of the teachers was similar to that found in the Department as a whole. METHOD: All teaching staff in the participating schools were asked to complete a self-report questionnaire as part of the evaluation of an organisational development programme. RESULTS: A series of exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were used to establish the questionnaire's factor structure, and correlation analyses were used to examine the questionnaire's convergent and discriminant validity. CONCLUSIONS: The three studies resulted in the 54-item School Organisational Health Questionnaire that measures teacher morale and 11 separate dimensions of school organisational climate: appraisal and recognition, curriculum coordination, effective discipline policy, excessive work demands, goal congruence, participative decision-making, professional growth, professional interaction, role clarity, student orientation, and supportive leadership.

Adolescent↗

Seasonal variation in perceived indoor environment and nonspecific symptoms in a temperate climate.

Few epidemiological studies have examined the effects of season on symptoms typical of sick building syndrome (SBS). The present study aims to clarify seasonal variation in a perceived indoor environment and SBS symptoms in a temperate climate. A total of 116 workers were recruited from office buildings in southern Japan that presented no apparent serious indoor problems. A validated questionnaire was distributed four times, once at the end of each season. Seasonal effects on the perceived indoor environment and SBS symptoms were investigated with a parametric test for repeated measurement of categorical data. Logits were used as the response function, and were compared to overall logits to determine the relevant odds ratios (OR). The effect of season/building interaction was also evaluated. Significant seasonal variation in the perceived indoor environment was found for temperature, dryness, air stuffiness, and static electricity (p for season, <0.05), although the seasonal patterns for temperature and dryness differed according to the building (p for interaction, <0.05). Symptoms in the mucous membrane (eyes, nose, and throat) and skin increased considerably in the winter and spring (p for season, <0.05), whereas general symptoms varied little, but such seasonality of symptoms was not modified by the building factor. The associations between perception of indoor environments and mucous and skin symptoms became stronger during winter and spring. The present results suggest that perceived indoor environments, nonspecific symptoms and their associations are closely associated with the season among office workers in a temperate climate.

Air Pollution, Indoor↗

Goal orientation, motivational climate, and dispositional flow of high school students engaged in extracurricular physical activity.

The purpose of this study was to examine the role of goal orientation, motivational climate, and dispositional flow in physical education lessons on extracurricular involvement in physical activity. Questionnaires were administered to 1,103 (792 athletes; 311 nonathletes) secondary school students (M age = 14.3 yr., SD = 0.7). Analysis showed significant mean differences between groups on goal orientation and dispositional flow in physical education lessons, but none for perception of motivational climate. These findings suggest that dispositional variables are related to extracurricular involvement in physical activity.

Adolescent↗

Perceptions of motivational climate, perceived competence, and motivation of students of varying age and sport experience.

This study examined differences in students' motivation in Greek physical education classes depending on age and amount of experience in sport and the extent to which these differences reflected divergent perceptions of competence and classes' motivational climate. 1,393 students responded to questionnaires measuring motivational climate, perceived competence, preference for challenge, interest in the lesson, and perceived importance of the lesson. Students who were not involved in out-of-school sport activities had lower scores on perceived physical competence, perceived learning orientation of the class, preference for challenge, interest in the lesson, and perceived importance of the lesson than students who were involved in organized sport. These differences in students' motivations decreased when scores on perceived learning goals and perceived physical competence were adjusted. Senior high school students (16 yr. old) were much less motivated than junior students (13 yr. old), but these differences were decreased or eliminated when scores on perceived learning orientation were controlled. These results suggest that to increase all students' motivation in physical education, a strong emphasis on personal progress should be adopted.

Adolescent↗

The physical education climate assessment instrument.

This paper describes the Physical Education Climate Assessment Instrument designed for systematic observation and to quantify variables associated with different types of objective motivational climates created by teachers and coaches in physical education and sports practices. The theoretical framework which guided the development is outlined with recording procedures and methods by which data can be summarized. In addition, estimates of validity, reliability, and feasibility are reported.

Child↗

Motivational climate and perceived competence in anxiety and tennis performance.

This study was done to verify a prediction in achievement goal-orientation theory in a Korean physical education setting. It was hypothesized that the interactions of situationally induced motivational climates (Task and Ego) and perceived competence would differentially influence anxiety and performance in tennis classes. 60 undergraduate men were assigned to a Task-involving and an Ego-involving program in tennis classes for 6 wk. Their perceptions of motivation climates and tennis competence were measured after the first 3 wk., and anxiety responses (cognitive and somatic) and tennis skill performance were evaluated every week over the second 3 wk. of the class. Analysis showed in Task-involving condition students decreased anxiety responses and increased tennis performance, whereas Ego-involving students who had low perception of their tennis competence maintained their anxiety responses and decreased their tennis performance. These results support the hypotheses and the predictions of goal-orientation theory and suggested practical application of the goal-orientation theory in Korea could be explored.

Adult↗

Clinical psychology students' perceptions of an academic climate for caring.

There is a general consensus that caring is an important personal attribute of helping professionals. One way for educational institutions to develop a caring attitude in students is to provide an academic climate for caring. A total of 45 doctoral students in a clinical psychology program were asked to list specific faculty-student and student-student interactions which they believed reflected a caring attitude towards others. Components of this student-perceived climate for caring include mutual respect and support, personal interest, and informal socialization.

Adult↗

Team Climate Inventory with a merged organization.

The present study examines the team climate for innovation in work teams within a newly merged organization. Four teams working at a regional head office of a Social Insurance organization answered the Team Climate Inventory. The results were compared to those of a study by Agrell and Gustafson of more stable teams. The comparison showed that participative safety and support for innovation were rated lower and that vision was rated higher in the newly merged teams. The 38-item original inventory was used and based on the results, a 1999 proposed shortened version of 14 items by Kivimäki and Elovainio was compared with the original one. Analysis indicated that the short version can be a valid alternative to the original version but that further testing of the short version is needed.

Cooperative Behavior↗

Evaluation of the environmental stress index (ESI) for hot/dry and hot/wet climates.

Recently, a novel environmental stress index (ESI) which is composed from commonly used meteorological variables: ambient temperature (T(a)), relative humidity (RH), and solar radiation (SR) was suggested as follows: ESI = 0.63T(a)-0.03RH+0.002SR+0.0054(T(a) x RH)-0.073(0.1+SR)(-1); (degrees C) The purpose of the present study was to evaluate and validate the ESI for hot dry and hot wet climatic conditions. The ESI was applied to large meteorological databases from 2 different locations resembling hot/wet and hot/dry climates. Data analysis revealed high correlation between ESI and the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index for each of the two databases: P < 0.05, R2 = 0.985 and 0.982, for the hot/dry and hot/wet conditions, respectively. Therefore, it is concluded that ESI, which is constructed from fast response and commonly used weather variables (T(a), RH, SR), and also found in a microsensor format is validated for hot/dry and hot/wet zones and as a potential index to serve as an alternative to the WBGT for heat category assessment.

Environmental Exposure↗

Scale development for perceived school climate for girls' physical activity.

OBJECTIVES: To test an original scale assessing perceived school climate for girls' physical activity in middle school girls. METHODS: Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equation modeling (SEM). RESULTS: CFA retained 5 of 14 original items. A model with 2 correlated factors, perceptions about teachers' and boys' behaviors, respectively, fit the data well in both sixth and eighth graders. SEM detected a positive, significant direct association of the teacher factor, but not the boy factor, with girls' self-reported physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: School climate for girls' physical activity is a measurable construct, and preliminary evidence suggests a relationship with physical activity.

Adolescent↗

Frequent introductions and climate suitability drive increasing dengue risk in Florida.

In recent years, detection of local dengue cases in Florida have increased in both frequency and geographical extent. From 2022 to 2024, consecutive outbreaks in Miami-Dade County were mainly caused by a single lineage of dengue virus (DENV) serotype 3, prompting questions about changing epidemiology and a transition towards endemicity. In this study, we used mathematical modeling and genomic epidemiology to reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of local dengue cases in Florida. We found that annual clusters and outbreaks were caused by frequent short-lived DENV introductions, primarily from the Caribbean, and did not find evidence for local trans-seasonal DENV lineage persistence. Further, we show that the climate-driven increases in local suitability for Aedes aegypti transmission and travel-associated cases were the greatest risk factors for outbreaks in Miami-Dade and the geographic expansion of dengue in Florida. Overall, while we do not yet find evidence for endemicity, we demonstrate how climatic trends are enhancing the local public health risk caused by dengue in Florida.

Journal Article↗

[The possible consequences of the probable global warming of the climate for the spread of blood-sucking ectoparasites and the pathogens they transmit].

The paper reviews the causes and possible consequences of the warming-up of global climate. Probable changes in the areas of vectors and blood-suckers, which are most important for Russia, are analyzed. The vectors of malaria and tick-borne pathogens were used as special subjects of prognostic survey. The paper shows it necessary to computer-aided simulate possible consequences of climatic warming-up for changes in the parasitological situation in the Russian Federation.

Animals↗

Measuring cultural climate in a uniformed services medical center.

The purpose of this study was to determine the employee perceptions of the cultural climate at a large uniformed service medical center in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The analyses are based on the responses of 1,751 medical center employees, whose demographic characteristics were representative of the medical center population. Analyses indicate the existence of systematic perceptual differences between: (1) the medical center and Department of Defense personnel, and (2) the following cultural groups: (a) male and female personnel, (b) military and civilian personnel, and (c) majority and minority personnel. Recommendations are provided for future areas of research that need to be conducted with respect to the phenomenon of cultural diversity and the development of positive cultural climates within both the military and civilian medical settings.

Academic Medical Centers↗