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Thomas et al. have carried out a useful analysis of the extinction risk from climate warming. Their overall conclusion, that a large fraction of extant species could be driven to extinction by expected climate trends over the next 50 years, is compelling: it adds to the many other reasons why new energy policies are needed to reduce the pace of warming.
The climate of the last glacial period was extremely variable, characterized by abrupt warming events in the Northern Hemisphere, accompanied by slower temperature changes in Antarctica and variations of global sea level. It is generally accepted that this millennial-scale climate variability was caused by abrupt changes in the ocean thermohaline circulation. Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model to show that freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic Ocean, in addition to a reduction of the thermohaline circulation, has a direct effect on Southern Ocean temperature. The related anomalous oceanic southward heat transport arises from a zonal density gradient in the subtropical North Atlantic caused by a fast wave-adjustment process. We present an extended and quantitative bipolar seesaw concept that explains the timing and amplitude of Greenland and Antarctic temperature changes, the slow changes in Antarctic temperature and its similarity to sea level, as well as a possible time lag of sea level with respect to Antarctic temperature during Marine Isotope Stage 3.
Mariner 9 and Viking spacecraft images revealed that the polar regions of Mars, like those of Earth, record the planet's climate history. However, fundamental uncertainties regarding the materials, features, ages and processes constituting the geologic record remained. Recently acquired Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter data and Mars Orbiter Camera high-resolution images from the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft and moderately high-resolution Thermal Emission Imaging System visible images from the Mars Odyssey spacecraft permit more comprehensive geologic and climatic analyses. Here I map and show the history of geologic materials and features in the north polar region that span the Amazonian period (approximately 3.0 Gyr ago to present). Erosion and redeposition of putative circumpolar mud volcano deposits (formed by eruption of liquefied, fine-grained material) led to the formation of an Early Amazonian polar plateau consisting of dark layered materials. Crater ejecta superposed on pedestals indicate that a thin mantle was present during most of the Amazonian, suggesting generally higher obliquity and insolation conditions at the poles than at present. Brighter polar layered deposits rest unconformably on the dark layers and formed mainly during lower obliquity over the past 4-5 Myr (ref. 20). Finally, the uppermost layers post-date the latest downtrend in obliquity <20,000 years ago.
All currently available climate models predict a near-surface warming trend under the influence of rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In addition to the direct effects on climate--for example, on the frequency of heatwaves--this increase in surface temperatures has important consequences for the hydrological cycle, particularly in regions where water supply is currently dominated by melting snow or ice. In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn when demand is highest. Where storage capacities are not sufficient, much of the winter runoff will immediately be lost to the oceans. With more than one-sixth of the Earth's population relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply, the consequences of these hydrological changes for future water availability--predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions--are likely to be severe.
Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10-40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10-30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.
Phenological responses to climate change differ across trophic levels, which may lead to birds failing to breed at the time of maximal food abundance. Here we investigate the population consequences of such mistiming in the migratory pied flycatcher, Ficedula hypoleuca. In a comparison of nine Dutch populations, we find that populations have declined by about 90% over the past two decades in areas where the food for provisioning nestlings peaks early in the season and the birds are currently mistimed. In areas with a late food peak, early-breeding birds still breed at the right time, and there is, at most, a weak population decline. If food phenology advances further, we also predict population declines in areas with a late food peak, as in these areas adjustment to an advanced food peak is insufficient. Mistiming as a result of climate change is probably a widespread phenomenon, and here we provide evidence that it can lead to population declines.
Large uncertainties in the budget of atmospheric methane, an important greenhouse gas, limit the accuracy of climate change projections. Thaw lakes in North Siberia are known to emit methane, but the magnitude of these emissions remains uncertain because most methane is released through ebullition (bubbling), which is spatially and temporally variable. Here we report a new method of measuring ebullition and use it to quantify methane emissions from two thaw lakes in North Siberia. We show that ebullition accounts for 95 per cent of methane emissions from these lakes, and that methane flux from thaw lakes in our study region may be five times higher than previously estimated. Extrapolation of these fluxes indicates that thaw lakes in North Siberia emit 3.8 teragrams of methane per year, which increases present estimates of methane emissions from northern wetlands (< 6-40 teragrams per year; refs 1, 2, 4-6) by between 10 and 63 per cent. We find that thawing permafrost along lake margins accounts for most of the methane released from the lakes, and estimate that an expansion of thaw lakes between 1974 and 2000, which was concurrent with regional warming, increased methane emissions in our study region by 58 per cent. Furthermore, the Pleistocene age (35,260-42,900 years) of methane emitted from hotspots along thawing lake margins indicates that this positive feedback to climate warming has led to the release of old carbon stocks previously stored in permafrost.
It is suggested that any clinician working on the Miyako islands, Okinawa, Japan, be a mediator or a negotiator between two worlds, namely the shamanistic and the modern psychiatric ones. On these islands, to subscribe to either is possible only by ignoring conflicting clinical realities. The main point is to summarize the complementary practices of these two medical systems on these islands. Psychiatric illness attributed to kamidaari is introduced. The initiatory illness for seeing a shaman is called kamidaari or kamburi. From the viewpoint of medical anthropology, aspects of the treatment of such patients in a shamanistic 'climate' (which is called fudo in Japanese), will be reported. In the shamanistic fudo, it must be recognized that, at a critical moment, shamanistic epistemology and psychiatric epistemology penetrate each other, and they exist together in a clinical 'mesh'. Two epistemologies must join in a coalition to access, and build continuity into, psychiatric and shamanistic medical care. It is demonstrated that these two worlds almost merge in dialogue but do not fuse, and that clinical relations occur on the boundary between these two epistemologies. 'Climatic' specific therapeutic stances are introduced and are clinically illustrated.
INTRODUCTION: During the past 3 decades, the number of patients with serious mental health problems seeking care in general hospital emergency departments has increased exponentially, with special clinical challenges. This study examines the effect of organizational climate--the subjective perceptions of staff regarding the work environment--on ED staff members' attitudes toward patients with mental health problems, as well as the effect on the clinical care of these patients. METHODS: The data for this study came from a written survey of 109 emergency nurses and other clinical staff employed in a general public hospital emergency department in a midwestern city (response rate = 67.9%). RESULTS: The findings indicate that the emergency nurses and other clinical staff who view their working conditions positively report having more frequent contact and providing a greater variety of interventions to patients with psychiatric problems. Staff members who believed that their clinical work roles and expectations are poorly defined were those least likely to interact with this patient population. DISCUSSION: The findings indicate that organizational processes seem to have an impact on the delivery of clinical care, as well as caregivers' attitudes about this patient population. This finding underlines the importance of addressing organizational climate in emergency departments as part of an effort to improve the quality of care for patients with mental health problems.
Variations in solar irradiance are widely believed to explain climatic change on 20,000- to 100,000-year time-scales in accordance with the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, but there is no conclusive evidence that variable irradiance can be the cause of abrupt fluctuations in climate on time-scales as short as 1,000 years. We propose that such abrupt millennial changes, seen in ice and sedimentary core records, were produced in part by well characterized, almost periodic variations in the strength of the global oceanic tide-raising forces caused by resonances in the periodic motions of the earth and moon. A well defined 1,800-year tidal cycle is associated with gradually shifting lunar declination from one episode of maximum tidal forcing on the centennial time-scale to the next. An amplitude modulation of this cycle occurs with an average period of about 5,000 years, associated with gradually shifting separation-intervals between perihelion and syzygy at maxima of the 1,800-year cycle. We propose that strong tidal forcing causes cooling at the sea surface by increasing vertical mixing in the oceans. On the millennial time-scale, this tidal hypothesis is supported by findings, from sedimentary records of ice-rafting debris, that ocean waters cooled close to the times predicted for strong tidal forcing.
There is mounting evidence that global climate change has extended growing seasons, changed distribution patterns, and altered the phenology of flowering, breeding, and migration. For migratory birds, the timing of arrival on breeding territories and over-wintering grounds is a key determinant of reproductive success, survivorship, and fitness. But we know little of the factors controlling earlier passage in long-distance migrants. Over the past 30 years in Oxfordshire, U.K., the average arrival and departure dates of 20 migrant bird species have both advanced by 8 days; consequently, the overall residence time in Oxfordshire has remained unchanged. The timing of arrival has advanced in relation to increasing winter temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa, whereas the timing of departure has advanced after elevated summer temperatures in Oxfordshire. This finding demonstrates that migratory phenology is quite likely to be affected by global climate change and links events in tropical winter quarters with those in temperate breeding areas.
The oxygen isotope record of the last million years, as provided by a deep sea core sediment, is analyzed by a method recently developed in the theory of dynamical systems. The analysis suggests that climatic variability is the manifestation of a chaotic dynamics described by an attractor of fractal dimensionality. A quantitative measure of the limited predictability of the climatic system is provided by the evaluation of the time-correlation function and the largest positive Lyapounov exponent of the system.
Between the mid-1960s and mid-1980s, red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) died at unusual rates on the mountains of New York and western New England. We determined the relationship between standardized tree ring widths and monthly climate data for calibration and verification periods from 1856 to 1981 and found that after about 1960, there was a distinct shift in the temperature variables related to standardized ring widths in vigorous spruce. The beginning of widespread spruce mortality, regionwide growth decreases, and the shift in response to climate in the early 1960s corresponds to the onset of a decade of unusually cold winters and several consecutive years when severe winter damage was noted across the Northeast in this species. We suggest that the episodes of winter damage are an important initiating and synchronizing factor in the red spruce decline.
Studies of carbon isotopes and cadmium in bottom-dwelling foraminifera from ocean sediment cores have advanced our knowledge of ocean chemical distributions during the late Pleistocene. Last Glacial Maximum data are consistent with a persistent high-SigmaCO2 state for eastern Pacific deep water. Both tracers indicate that the mid-depth North and tropical Atlantic Ocean almost always has lower SigmaCO2 levels than those in the Pacific. Upper waters of the Last Glacial Maximum Atlantic are more SigmaCO2-depleted and deep waters are SigmaCO2-enriched compared with the waters of the present. In the northern Indian Ocean, delta13C and Cd data are consistent with upper water SigmaCO2 depletion relative to the present. There is no evident proximate source of this SigmaCO2-depleted water, so I suggest that SigmaCO2-depleted North Atlantic intermediate/deep water turns northward around the southern tip of Africa and moves toward the equator as a western boundary current. At long periods (>15,000 years), Milankovitch cycle variability is evident in paleochemical time series. But rapid millennial-scale variability can be seen in cores from high accumulation rate series. Atlantic deep water chemical properties are seen to change in as little as a few hundred years or less. An extraordinary new 52.7-m-long core from the Bermuda Rise contains a faithful record of climate variability with century-scale resolution. Sediment composition can be linked in detail with the isotope stage 3 interstadials recorded in Greenland ice cores. This new record shows at least 12 major climate fluctuations within marine isotope stage 5 (about 70,000-130,000 years before the present).
A long-standing question in Quaternary paleontology is whether climate-induced, population-level phenotypic change is a result of large-scale migration or evolution in isolation. To directly measure genetic variation through time, ancient DNA and morphologic variation was measured over 2,400 years in a Holocene sequence of pocket gophers (Thomomys talpoides) from Lamar Cave, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming. Ancient specimens and modern samples collected near Lamar Cave share mitochondrial cytochrome b sequences that are absent from adjacent localities, suggesting that the population was isolated for the entire period. In contrast, diastemal length, a morphologic character correlated with body size and nutritional level, changed predictably in response to climatic change. Our results demonstrate that small mammal populations can experience the long-term isolation assumed by many theoretical models of microevolutionary change.
In coming decades, global climate changes are expected to produce large shifts in vegetation distributions at unprecedented rates. These shifts are expected to be most rapid and extreme at ecotones, the boundaries between ecosystems, particularly those in semiarid landscapes. However, current models do not adequately provide for such rapid effects-particularly those caused by mortality-largely because of the lack of data from field studies. Here we report the most rapid landscape-scale shift of a woody ecotone ever documented: in northern New Mexico in the 1950s, the ecotone between semiarid ponderosa pine forest and pinon-juniper woodland shifted extensively (2 km or more) and rapidly (<5 years) through mortality of ponderosa pines in response to a severe drought. This shift has persisted for 40 years. Forest patches within the shift zone became much more fragmented, and soil erosion greatly accelerated. The rapidity and the complex dynamics of the persistent shift point to the need to represent more accurately these dynamics, especially the mortality factor, in assessments of the effects of climate change.
Models suggest that dramatic changes in the ocean circulation are responsible for abrupt climate changes during the last ice age and may possibly alter the relative climate stability of the last 10,000 years.
(1) To evaluate the effect of climate, flock size, age and artificial cover on the use of range area, a study was conducted in 1994 to 1998, involving 5 farms with a total of 37 flocks of layers kept in commercial, free-range, organic systems. Flocks were visited regularly during the production period to record the number and distribution of hens on the range. (2) On average 9% of the flock used the range area, but with large variations both within and between flocks, and this was partly influenced by climatic factors. Range use was affected by temperature, wind, precipitation, season and age, and there was a tendency for reduced numbers of hens on the range with the time of day and increasing flock size. (3) Eight flocks (including houses and range areas) were divided into 8 paired units, and the range area of one unit in each of the flocks was provided with artificial cover. There were more hens on the range when artificial cover was present and the presence of cover attracted more hens away from the area immediately outside the hen house.