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PubMed1998

Spatial structure, environmental heterogeneity, and population dynamics: analysis of the coupled logistic map.

Spatial extent can have two important consequences for population dynamics: It can generate spatial structure, in which individuals interact more intensely with neighbors than with more distant conspecifics, and it allows for environmental heterogeneity, in which habitat quality varies spatially. Studies of these features are difficult to interpret because the models are complex and sometimes idiosyncratic. Here we analyze one of the simplest possible spatial population models, to understand the mathematical basis for the observed patterns: two patches coupled by dispersal, with dynamics in each patch governed by the logistic map. With suitable choices of parameters, this model can represent spatial structure, environmental heterogeneity, or both in combination. We synthesize previous work and new analyses on this model, with two goals: to provide a comprehensive baseline to aid our understanding of more complex spatial models, and to generate predictions about the effects of spatial structure and environmental heterogeneity on population dynamics. Spatial structure alone can generate positive, negative, or zero spatial correlations between patches when dispersal rates are high, medium, or low relative to the complexity of the local dynamics. It can also lead to quasiperiodicity and hyperchaos, which are not present in the nonspatial model. With density-independent dispersal, spatial structure cannot destabilize equilibria or periodic orbits that would be stable in the absence of space. When densities in the two patches are uncorrelated, the probability that the population in a patch reaches extreme low densities is reduced relative to the same patch in isolation; this "rescue effect" would reduce the probability of metapopulation extinction beyond the simple effect of spreading of risk. Pure environmental heterogeneity always produces positive spatial correlations. The dynamics of the entire population is approximated by a nonspatial model with mean patch characteristics. This approximation worsens as the difference between the patches increases and the dispersal rate decreases: Under extreme conditions, destabilization of equilibria and periodic orbits occurs at mean parameter values lower than those predicted by the mean parameters. Apparent within-patch dynamics are distorted: The local population appears to have the wrong growth parameter and a constant number of immigrants (or emigrants) per generation. Adding environmental heterogeneity to spatial structure increases the occurrence of spatially correlated population dynamics, but the resulting temporal dynamics are more complex than would be predicted by the mean parameter values. The three classes of spatial pattern (positive, negative, and zero correlation), while still mathematically distinct, become increasingly similar phenomenologically.

Animals↗
PubMed1995

Population dynamics in Ciskei.

"Population density is one of the most widely-used statistics in human geography. Maps showing areas of high and low density illustrate stark contrasts which result from the interplay of numerous forces. In South Africa political developments during the apartheid era have left a long-lasting impression upon population distribution and density. Conditions in one former homeland, Ciskei, are examined."

Africa↗
PubMed1998

Population dynamics of Norwegian red deer: density-dependence and climatic variation.

We present a model on plant-deer climate interactions developed for improving our understanding of the temporal dynamics of deer abundance and, in particular, how intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (plants, climate) factors influence these dynamics. The model was tested statistically by analysing the dynamics of five Norwegian red deer populations between 1964 and 1993. Direct and delayed density-dependence significantly influenced the development of the populations: delayed density-dependence primarily operated through female density, whereas direct density-dependence acted through both female and male densities. Furthermore, population dynamics of Norwegian red deer were significantly affected by climate (as measured by the global weather phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation: NAO). Warm, snowy winters (high NAO) were associated with decreased deer abundance, whereas the delayed (two-year) effect of warm, snowy winters had a positive effect on deer abundance. Our analyses are argued to have profound implications for the general understanding of climate change and terrestrial ecosystem functioning.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Population dynamics and gene flow of Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on cotton and grain crops in the Murrumbidgee Valley, Australia.

The population dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in the Murrumbidgee Valley, Australia, has been characterized using five highly variable microsatellite loci. In the 2001-2002 growing season, there were very high levels of migration into the Murrumbidgee Valley with no detectable genetic structuring, consistent with previous analyses on a national scale. By contrast, there was significant genetic structuring over the 2002-2003 growing season, with three distinct genetic types detected. The first type corresponded to the first two generations and was derived from local individuals emerging from diapause and their progeny. The second genetic type corresponded to generation 3 and resulted from substantial immigration into the region. There was another genetic shift in generation 4, which accounts for the third genetic type of the season. This genetic shift occurred despite low levels of immigration. During the third generation of the 2002-2003 growing season, different population dynamics was characterized for H. armigera on maize, Zea mays L., and cotton Gossipium hirsutum L. Populations on cotton tended to cycle independently with very little immigration from outside the region or from maize within the region. Maize acted as a major sink for immigrants from cotton and from outside the region. If resistance were to develop on cotton under these circumstances, susceptible individuals from maize or from other regions would not dilute this resistance. In addition, resistance is likely to be transferred to maize and be perpetuated until diapause, from where it may reemerge next season. If low levels of immigration were to occur on transgenic cotton, this may undermine the effectiveness of refugia, especially noncotton refugia.

Animals↗
PubMed1999

Population dynamics under parasitic sex ratio distortion.

We analyse the population dynamic effects of sex ratio distortion by vertically transmitted, feminizing parasites. We show that, for diploid hosts, sex ratio distortion may lead to extinction as males become too rare to maintain the host population through reproduction. Feminizers can magnify Allee effects, broadening the range of conditions leading to extinction of small populations. Depending on male mating constraints and strength of density dependence, feminizers may either increase or decrease the equilibrium host density. Under conditions leading to deterministic host extinction, stochastic elimination of the parasite may allow the host population to recover. Hence, infection by parasitic sex ratio distorters may be transient in finite populations. We consider the implications of this process for parasite prevalence, host population regulation, and sex ratio evolution.

Animals↗
PubMed1990

Population dynamics model for Bulinus globosus, intermediate host for Schistosoma haematobium, in river habitats.

A mathematical model is developed that describes the population dynamics of the freshwater snail Bulinus globosus, an intermediate host of Schistosoma haematobium. The model is developed from field data recording abundance changes, recruitment rates, and mortality rates for adult snails in river habitats in Zimbabwe. Rate of recruitment into the adult population is dependent on temperature, incorporating a time lag to allow for growth to adult size. Mortality rate is also a function of temperature. A temperature-dependent model provides a useful description of changes in abundance during the dry season. Long-term population fluctuations are greatly affected by spates (flooding) associated with heavy rainfall. An estimate is made of the frequency and effects of spates. A simulation model that allows variable annual rainfall predicts fluctuations in snail abundance over two orders of magnitude over timescales of ten or more years. The role of density-dependent factors and the long-term persistence of the population are discussed. B. globosus population dynamics can be described as 'density vague'.

Animals↗
PubMed1991

Dynamic population epidemic models.

Most multipopulation epidemic models are of the contact distribution type, in which the locations of successive contacts are chosen independently from appropriate contact distributions. This paper is concerned with an alternative class of models, termed dynamic population epidemic models, in which infectives move among the populations and can infect only within their current population. Both the stochastic and deterministic versions of such models are considered. Their threshold behavior is analyzed in some depth, as are their final outcomes. Velocities of spread of infection are considered when the populations have a spatial structure. A criterion for finding the equivalent contact distribution epidemic for any given dynamic population epidemic is provided, enabling comparisons to be made for the velocities and final outcomes displayed by the two classes of models. The relationship between deterministic and stochastic epidemic models is also discussed briefly.

Disease Outbreaks↗
PubMed1976

Training public school teachers in population dynamics: An evaluation of the urban life-population education workshops in Baltimore.

Nine population education workshops were held for city school teachers in Baltimore, Maryland during the 1972-73 academic year. The original program schedule was modified two times, at the end of the third workshop and the sixth. Each change resulted in fewer formal presentations, more teacher discussions and greater teacher involvement in the workshop program. From the ideas generated by the workshops, curriculum units suitable for elementary and secondary school students were produced. An evaluation of the program showed that teachers' knowledge of selected demographic concepts and facts increased between the pre-workshop period and the post-workshop period. The changes were greater in the later workshops. The changes in knowledge were statistically significant. While there was some regression to pre-test levels, the teachers retained a substantiol portion of the knowledge they received when measured a second time after the workshop. High school teachers showed greater effective changes in knowledge than lower grade teachers. However, interest in population education appears to be wide-spread among all teachers including lower grade teachers. It is suggested that in the future, programs in population education consider conducting separate workshops for teachers of the same or similar grade level.

Curriculum↗
PubMed2001

Rhizobium population dynamics in the pea rhizosphere of rhizobial inoculant strain applied in different formulations.

The effect of inoculant formulation on the population dynamics of rhizobia in the pea rhizosphere was investigated using a streptomycin-resistant mutant of Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. viceae NITRAGIN128C56G (128C56G strR). The isolate was formulated into liquid, peat powder, and granular peat carriers, and was tested on pea at field sites near Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, and Beaverlodge, Alberta, in 1996 and 1997. The liquid and peat powder formulations were applied to seed while the granular inoculant was applied to soil. In three out of four site years, population dynamics were similar among formulations: an initial decline or lag period lasting 2-5 days followed by an increase to approximately 10(5) colony-forming units (CFU)/seedling by 14-28 days after planting (DAP) and, where sampled, a continuing increase from 10(7) to 10(8) CFU/plant at 63 DAP. In these same site years, nodule number (not determined at Beaverlodge in 1997) and nodule occupancy at 60 days were not significantly different among formulations. In contrast, soil populations of 128C56G strR from the liquid formulation declined to near zero by 28 DAP at Beaverlodge in 1996, when soil moisture was excessive in spring because of high rainfall. Populations increased in this treatment after this time, but remained significantly lower than the populations of the other two formulations throughout the sampling period. Pea seed yields were not significantly different among treatments in either year at Beaverlodge, but were significantly higher with granular inoculant than the noninoculated control in Saskatoon. Within inoculated treatments at Saskatoon, there were no significant differences in grain yield.

Colony Count, Microbial↗
PubMed2006

Understanding diabetes population dynamics through simulation modeling and experimentation.

Health planners in the Division of Diabetes Translation and others from the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention used system dynamics simulation modeling to gain a better understanding of diabetes population dynamics and to explore implications for public health strategy. A model was developed to explain the growth of diabetes since 1980 and portray possible futures through 2050. The model simulations suggest characteristic dynamics of the diabetes population, including unintended increases in diabetes prevalence due to diabetes control, the inability of diabetes control efforts alone to reduce diabetes-related deaths in the long term, and significant delays between primary prevention efforts and downstream improvements in diabetes outcomes.

Diabetes Complications↗
PubMed2006

Effects of predation and dispersal on Mastomys natalensis population dynamics in Tanzanian maize fields.

1. We investigate the effects of different levels of predation pressure and rodent dispersal on the population dynamics of the African pest rodent Mastomys natalensis in maize fields in Tanzania. 2. Three levels of predation risk were used in an experimental set-up: natural level (control), excluding predators by nets and attracting avian predators by nest boxes and perch poles. Because dispersal of the rodents could mask the predation pressure treatment effects, control and predator exclusion treatments were repeated with enclosed rodent populations. 3. Population growth during the annual population rise period was faster in the absence of predators and peak population size was higher, but otherwise dynamics patterns were similar for populations where predators had access or were attracted, indicating that compensatory mechanisms operate when rodents are exposed to high levels of predation risk. Reducing dispersal of rodents removed the effect of predation on population growth and peak size, suggesting that local predators may play a role in driving rodent dispersal, but have otherwise little direct effect on population dynamics.

Animals↗
PubMed1998

Sexual reproduction and population dynamics: the role of polygyny and demographic sex differences.

Most models of population dynamics do not take sexual reproduction into account (i.e., they do not consider the role of males). However, assumptions behind this practice--that no demographic sex differences exist and males are always abundant enough to fertilize all the females--are usually not justified in natural populations. On the contrary, demographic sex differences are common, especially in polygynous species. Previous models that consider sexual reproduction report a stabilizing effect through mixing of different genotypes, thus suggesting a decrease in the propensity for complex of dynamics in sexually reproducing populations. Here we show that considering the direct role of males in reproduction and density dependence leads to the conclusion that a two-sex model is not necessarily more stable compared with the corresponding one-sex model. Although solutions exist where sexual reproduction has a stabilizing effect even when no genotypic variability is included (primarily when associated with monogamy), factors like polygyny, sex differences in survival or density dependence, and possible alterations of the primary sex ratio (the Trivers-Willard mechanism), may enlarge the parametric region of complex dynamics. Sexual reproduction therefore does not necessarily increase the stability of population dynamics and can have destabilizing effects, at least in species with complicated mating systems and sexual dimorphism.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

Effects of virus infection and light environment on population dynamics of Eupatorium makinoi (Asteraceae).

We studied the effects of virus infection on dynamics of three Eupatorium makinoi populations in contrasting light environments, Gora-dani (a shaded population) and Minou 1 and Minou 2 (open-site populations). Censuses of the plants were taken for 8 yr in Gora-dani and 4 yr in Minou 1 and Minou 2. After the epidemics of virus infection, most plants were virus infected at both sites. The number of plants and the proportion of flowering individuals decreased rapidly and simultaneously in the shaded population in Gora-dani. By contrast, in the open-site populations of Minou, the proportion of flowering plants decreased first, and then the number of plants decreased gradually. Growth analysis of the plants in the Gora-dani population revealed that stem growth was significantly suppressed by infection and that flowering and survivorship of the infected plants decreased with reducing plant height. Since light availability affected plant growth and thereby flowering and survivorship, the differences in population dynamics between the two field sites could be caused by the differences in light environments. Although populations in open sites may persist for considerable periods after virus epidemics, the individual local populations of E. makinoi would eventually become extinct irrespective of light environments.

Journal Article↗
PubMed1994

The population dynamics of maternal-effect selfish genes.

We use population genetic methods to describe the expected population dynamics of the selfish-gene chromosomal factor, Medea (maternal-effect dominant embryonic arrest), recently discovered in flour beetles, genus Tribolium. In the absence of deleterious effects on gross fecundity, Medea factors spread to fixation for all degrees of maternal-effect lethality greater than zero and the rate of spread is proportional to the strength of the maternal-effect. The rate of spread when rare is very slow, on the order of the frequency squared p2, but this can be accelerated to order p when there is density regulation at the level of families as is known to occur for some genetic strains of flour beetles. When there are general deleterious effects of Medea on fecundity, affecting all offspring genotypes in addition to the genotype-specific maternal effect, then a stable interior polymorphism is possible. The location of the interior equilibrium and the probability of loss or fixation are sensitive to the degree of dominance of these fecundity effects.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

The population dynamics of Ostertagia gruehneri in reindeer: a model for the seasonal and intensity dependent variation in nematode fecundity.

The gastrointestinal nematode Ostertagia gruehneri is a parasite of reindeer that can have a significant impact on host population dynamics. To gain a better understanding of the population dynamics of O. gruehneri, we parameterise a model for its fecundity that describes the observed seasonal and intensity dependent pattern of faecal egg counts well. The faecal egg count model is combined with a model for the seasonal faecal production rate of Svalbard reindeer to obtain quantitative estimates of the fecundity of O. gruehneri. The model is used to evaluate the relative contribution to pasture contamination of variation in the abundance of O. gruehneri and variation in reindeer densities. It is concluded that due to the intensity dependence in nematode fecundity, variation in reindeer population densities is likely to be the most important of these factors for pasture contamination.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

A dynamic population model of disease progression in COPD.

To contribute to evidence-based policy making, a dynamic Dutch population model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) progression was developed. The model projects incidence, prevalence, mortality, progression and costs of diagnosed COPD by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease-severity stage for 2000-2025, taking into account population dynamics and changes in smoking prevalence over time. It was estimated that of all diagnosed COPD patients in 2000, 27% had mild, 55% moderate, 15% severe and 3% very severe COPD. The severity distribution of COPD incidence was computed to be 40% mild, 55% moderate, 4% severe and 0.1% very severe COPD. Disease progression was modelled as decline in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) % predicted depending on sex, age, smoking and FEV1 % pred. The relative mortality risk of a 10-unit decrease in FEV1 % pred was estimated at 1.2. Projections of current practice were compared with projections assuming that each year 25% of all COPD patients receive either minimal smoking cessation counselling or intensive counselling plus bupropion. In the projections of current practice, prevalence rates between 2000-2025 changed from 5.1 to 11 per 1,000 inhabitants for mild, 11 to 14 per 1,000 for moderate, 3.0 to 3.9 per 1,000 for severe and from 0.5 to 1.3 per 1,000 for very severe COPD. Costs per inhabitant increased from 1.40 Euro to 3.10 for mild, 6.50 Euro to 9.00 for moderate, 6.20 Euro to 8.50 for severe and from 3.40 Euro to 9.40 for very severe COPD (price level 2000). Both smoking cessation scenarios were cost-effective with minimal counselling generating net savings. In conclusion, the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease progression model is a useful instrument to give detailed information about the future burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and to assess the long-term impact of interventions on this burden.

Aged↗
PubMed2005

Plant population dynamics, pollinator foraging, and the selection of self-fertilization.

Many flowering plants rely on pollinators, self-fertilization, or both for reproduction. We model the consequences of these features for plant population dynamics and mating system evolution. Our mating systems-based population dynamics model includes an Allee effect. This often leads to an extinction threshold, defined as a density below which population densities decrease. Reliance on generalist pollinators who primarily visit higher density plant species increases the extinction threshold, whereas autonomous modes of selfing decrease and can eliminate the threshold. Generalist pollinators visiting higher density plant species coupled with autonomous selfing may introduce an effect where populations decreasing in density below the extinction threshold may nonetheless persist through selfing. The extinction threshold and selfing at low density result in populations where individuals adopting a single reproductive strategy exhibit mating systems that depend on population density. The ecological and evolutionary analyses provide a mechanism where prior selfing evolves even though inbreeding depression is greater than one-half. Simultaneous consideration of ecological and evolutionary dynamics confirms unusual features (e.g., evolution into extinction or abrupt increases in population density) implicit in our separate consideration of ecological and evolutionary scenarios. Our analysis has consequences for understanding pollen limitation, reproductive assurance, and the evolution of mating systems.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Population dynamics of Bemisia argentifolii (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae) on spring collard and relationship to yield in the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas.

Seasonal population dynamics of the silverleaf whitefly, Bemisia argentifolii Bellows & Perring [formerly known as the sweetpotato whitefly, B. tabaci (Gennadius) Biotype "B"], was investigated on collard (Brassica oleracea L. variety acephala) during spring 1998 and 1999 in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Yield loss caused by whitefly was determined by using insecticides to suppress whitefly populations to a low level. Although B. argentifolii populations of adults and immatures fluctuated greatly from April to June during the two seasons, the relative values were similar. Adult whiteflies first appeared on the plants in early April, increased rapidly within the month, peaked in May, and declined at the end of the season in early or mid-June. Whitefly eggs appeared on plants soon after adults were found, but high numbers of eggs were observed on foliage until late May 1998 and mid- and late May 1999. Nymphs and pupae increased slowly before June 1998 and increased early in May 1999. Whitefly population levels appeared to be positively associated with the availability and the growth of host plants until plant maturation, afterward being negatively related with plant quality in the late season. Temperature, rainfall, and natural enemies were not key factors in regulating population dynamics during the two seasons. Collard plants with heavy infestations of whiteflies were unmarketable because of the damage caused by honeydew and sooty mold on the foliage. Application of a combination of fenpropathrin (Danitol) and acephate (Orthene) not only significantly reduced the whitefly infestation levels but also reduced plant foliar damage, resulting in marketable foliage with six to seven times greater yield and higher quality compared with the untreated plants.

Animals↗