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At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources

Population dynamics with a refuge: fractal basins and the suppression of chaos.

We consider the effect of coupling an otherwise chaotic population to a refuge. A rich set of dynamical phenomena is uncovered. We consider two forms of density dependence in the active population: logistic and exponential. In the former case, the basin of attraction for stable population growth becomes fractal, and the bifurcation diagrams for the active and refuge populations are chaotic over a wide range of parameter space. In the case of exponential density dependence, the dynamics are unconditionally stable (in that the population size is always positive and finite), and chaotic behavior is completely eradicated for modest amounts of dispersal. We argue that the use of exponential density dependence is more appropriate, theoretically as well as empirically, in a model of refuge dynamics.

Ecology↗

[What do age-specific growth rates reveal?].

"This paper summarizes a generalization of the stable population theory pioneered by S. H. Preston and A. J. Coale, and elaborates on a particular case of this generalization suggested by Horiuchi and Preston. Based on the properties of age-specific growth rates to reflect in an indirect manner past population dynamics, an attempt is made to shed light on some aspects of the population history of Bulgaria, which until now have been 'hidden' due to the lack, or the unreliability of the statistical data." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

Bulgaria↗

Derivations of complex roots of a stable model for a special distribution of net maternity rates: an alternative method.

"Several mathematical models representing the age distribution of net maternity rate p(x) have...tried in the past [to] generate estimates of the parameters of a stable population model.... In an earlier paper, Mitra and Levin (1990) experimented with a generalized model.... Among other things, that model generated a pair of nonlinear equations from which the intrinsic roots, real as well as complex, had to be solved. The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative method of solving the same pair of equations which reveals another set of interesting features characteristic of this different approach."

Age Factors↗

Some innovative methods in demographic analysis.

"This paper suggests the use of the Matusita affinity and distance measures for the relative ranking of human populations and for developing an age distribution free index of demographic phenomena. A plea for modifying the conventional parity progression rates through semi-Markov analysis is made. The input-output model, the notion of entropy, etc., are suggested as new tools for looking at demographic events." Some illustrations based on Canadian and U.S. data concerning family planning attitudes, mortality, migration, and stable populations are included.

Age Distribution↗

The transition to agricultural sustainability.

The transition to sustainable growth in agricultural production during the 21st century will take place within the context of a transition to a stable population and a possible transition to a stable level of material consumption. If the world fails to successfully navigate a transition to sustainable growth in agricultural production, the failure will be due more to a failure in the area of institutional innovation than to resource and environmental constraints.

Agriculture↗

The dynamics of mass migration.

We specify a set of equations defining a dynamic model of international migration and estimate its parameters by using data specially collected in Mexico. We then used it to project the a hypothetical Mexican community population forward in time. Beginning with a stable population of 10,000 people, we project ahead 50 years under three different assumptions: no international migration; constant probabilities of in- and out-migration, and dynamic schedules of out- and in-migration that change as migratory experience accumulates. This exercise represents an attempt to model the self-feeding character of international migration noted by prior observers and theorists. Our model quantifies the mechanisms of cumulative causation predicted by social capital theory and illustrates the shortcomings of standard projection methodologies. The failure to model dynamically changing migration schedules yields a 5% overstatement of the projected size of the Mexican population after 50 years, an 11% understatement of the total number of U.S. migrants, a 15% understatement of the prevalence of U.S. migratory experience in the Mexican population, and an 85% understatement of the size of the Mexican population living in the United States.

Demography↗

Outbreeding selects for spiteful cytoplasmic elements.

In addition to their nuclear genome, the vast majority of eukaryotes harbour cytoplasmic genomes, e.g. in mitochondria or chloroplasts. In the majority of cases, these cytoplasmic genomes are transmitted maternally only, leading to selective pressures divergent from those that act on nuclear genes. In particular, cytoplasmic genes, which reduce the fitness of males that carry them, but have no fitness effect in females, are believed to be selectively neutral. Here, we go a step further and argue that in outbreeding populations (i.e. populations with inbreeding avoidance), 'spiteful' cytoplasmic elements that reduce the number of offspring produced by males are in fact selected for. We study this process by means of a stochastic model, analysing both the probability of spread and the impact that such a spiteful cytotype can have on population dynamics. Our results demonstrate that the probability of spread of the spiteful cytotype can be several times higher in outbreeding than in panmictic populations. Spread and fixation of the spiteful cytotype can lead to different qualitative effects on the population dynamics, including extinction, decreased or increased stable population size. We discuss our results in respect to cytoplasmically induced male infertility and cytoplasmic incompatibility.

Animals↗

Human population and environmental stresses in the twenty-first century.

Human populations have put pressure on their natural surroundings throughout history. Yet the world is now facing truly global environmental challenges and rapid population growth in the final half of the twentieth century is a critical component to understanding these phenomena. In his article, Ambassador Richard Benedick examines a host of population dynamics and their complex interlinkages with three representative environmental issue areas: forest, freshwater resources, and climate change. These connections raise the importance of meeting the commitments made at the 1994 Cairo International Conference on Population and Development. Benedick maintains that investments in measures to slow the rate of population growth--and thereby to reach a stable population earlier, and at lower levels, than under current trends--WO WOMENuld significantly reinforce efforts to address the environmental challenges of the century ahead, and considerably lower the cost of such efforts.

Climate↗

Asymptotic properties of the inhomogeneous Lotka-Von Foerster system.

"In this paper, we investigate an extension of the multistate stable population model, which makes allowances for migration. The model is formulated as an inhomogeneous system of first order partial differential equations with integral boundary conditions. First, we construct its classical solution. Next, we reformulate the system as an abstract inhomogeneous Cauchy problem on a Banach space, and give its mild solution by using the population semigroup. Our main purpose is to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the mild solution." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Demography↗

The association between primary biliary cirrhosis and coeliac disease: a study of relative prevalences.

BACKGROUND: Coexistent primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and coeliac disease has been recorded but the association has not been systematically studied. AIMS: To determine relative prevalences of PBC and coeliac disease in a defined population over a 12 year period. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All patients with PBC or coeliac disease in a stable population of 250,000 in South Wales were identified from a clinical register and laboratory records. RESULTS: Sixty seven patients with PBC and 143 patients with coeliac disease have been diagnosed and followed over a median of 86 (4-135) months; point prevalences in 1996 were 20 per 100,000 for PBC and 54 per 100,000 for coeliac disease. PBC in patients with coeliac disease was sought by investigating abnormal liver function tests. Ten (7%) had persistent abnormalities and three had PBC. Coeliac disease in patients with PBC was sought by investigating malabsorption, haematinic deficiency, positive antigliadin antibody, or coeliac disease family history. Eleven patients underwent duodenal biopsy revealing one further coeliac disease case. Four patients (three women have both conditions giving a point prevalence for patients with both conditions of 1.6 per 100,000 (95% confidence limits 0.44 to 4.1 per 100,000). Prevalence of PBC in patients with coeliac disease was 3% and of coeliac disease in patients with PBC was 6%. CONCLUSION: A 12 year study of a stable 250,000 population revealed a relative prevalence of PBC in 3% of 143 patients with coeliac disease and of coeliac disease in 6% of 67 patients with PBC. PBC and coeliac disease are therefore associated. Screening for PBC in patients with coeliac disease using antimitochondrial antibody testing and screening for coeliac disease in patients with PBC with antigliadin antibody testing or duodenal biopsy are recommended.

Adult↗

[Stability of the population as an expression of human rationality (author's transl)].

A prominent feature of a stable population is the stability of the age structure. The present investigation demonstrates that in the Federal Republic of Germany age distribution of youth, working population and old age pensioners remained stable during the last hundred years despite fluctations in the birth rate, death rate, and life expectancy. It can be concluded that an increasing life expectancy must lead to overpopulation which will in turn reduce the birth rate and slow down human reproduction.

Age Factors↗

Life-history tactics: a review of the ideas.

This review organizes ideas on the evolution of life histories. The key life-history traits are brood size, size of young, the age distribution of reproductive effort, the interaction of reproductive effort with adult mortality, and the variation in these traits among an individual's progeny. The general theoretical problem is to predict which combinations of traits will evolve in organisms living in specified circumstances. First consider single traits. Theorists have made the following predictions: (1) Where adult exceeds juvenile mortality, the organism should reproduce only once in its lifetime. Where juvenile exceeds adult mortality, the organism should reproduce several times. (2) Brood size should macimize the number of young surviving to maturity, summed over the lifetime of the parent. But when optimum brood-size unpredictably in time, smaller broods should be favored because they decrease the chances of total failure on a given attempt. (3) In expanding populations, selection should minimize age at maturity. In stable populations, when reproductive success depends on size, age, or social status, or when adult exceeds juvenile mortality, then maturation should be delayed, as it should be in declining populations. (4) Young should increase in size at birth with increased predation risk, and decrease in size with increased resource availability. Theorists have also predicted that only particular combinations of traits should occur in specified circumstances. (5) In growing populations, age at maturity should be minimized, reproductive effort concentrated early in life, and brood size increased. (6) One view holds that in stable environments, late maturity, broods, a few, large young, parental care, and small reproductive efforts should be favored (K-selection). In fluctuating environments, early maturity, many small young, reduced parental care, and large reproductive efforts should be favored (r-selection). (7) But another view holds that when juvenile mortality fluctuates more than adult mortality, the traits associated with stable and fluctuating environments should be reversed. We need experiments that test the assumptions and predictions reviewed here, more comprehensive theory that makes more readily falsifiable predictions, and examination of different definitions of fitness.

Age Factors↗

Demographic characteristics and population dynamical patterns of solitary birds.

In birds and many other animals, there are large interspecific differences in the magnitude of annual variation in population size. Using time-series data on populations of solitary bird species, we found that fluctuations in population size of solitary birds were affected by the deterministic characteristics of the population dynamics as well as the stochastic factors. In species with highly variable populations, annual variation in recruitment was positively related to the return rate of adults between successive breeding seasons. In stable populations, more recruits were found in years with low return rates of breeding adults. This identifies a gradient, associated with the position of the species along a "slow-fast" continuum of life history variation, from highly variable populations with a recruitment-driven demography to stable, strongly density-regulated populations with a survival-restricted demography. These results suggest that patterns in avian population fluctuations can be predicted from a knowledge of life-history characteristics and/or temporal variation in certain demographic traits.

Animals↗

The dynamics of ageing in Singapore's population.

This paper beings by explaining with the aid of the stable population theory that the ageing of a population is chiefly, if not entirely, the result of a decline in mortality. It shows that the decline in fertility is the major determinant of an ageing population. In Singapore the ageing of our population has commenced and will gather momentum in the future: there is little that can be done to arrest this trend caused by the past rapid decline in fertility and the maintenance of fertility below replacement level since 1975. Some of the more significant consequences in the areas of level of living, consumption pattern, savings, labour shortage, and ageing work force are discussed briefly.

Adolescent↗

The association of donor center characteristics with attrition from the national marrow donor registry.

BACKGROUND: The National Marrow Donor Program (NMDP) has approximately 5 million registered potential donors and continues to add more than 30,000 new recruits to the registry monthly. However, more than 30% of potential donors are not available or decline to donate at key decision points in the donation process. Although previous researchers have examined the association of individual donor characteristics with attrition from the registry, no published studies have investigated the role of donor center characteristics or features of the donor centers' environment on attrition rates. METHODS: Donor center coordinators from 72 NMDP centers completed questionnaires that included items regarding donor center location and organization, recruitment strategies, and registry management. Center-specific registry composition data and attrition rates were gathered from the NMDP database. RESULTS: Analyses indicated that higher attrition was found at larger centers that needed more center staff and volunteers to deal with larger workloads and more DR-typing requests. Attrition was also higher among centers located in highly populated, urban environments, with larger minority and less stable populations. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that the NMDP may need to tailor donor center retention expectations to account for certain unchangeable characteristics (e.g., center size and population stability) and to develop internal strategies to address the unique characteristics of each donor center (e.g., current performance level or improvement needs).

Databases, Factual↗

Regional population structure of a widely introduced estuarine invertebrate: Nematostella vectensis Stephenson in New England.

Nematostella vectensis is an infaunal anemone occurring in salt marshes, lagoons and other estuarine habitats in North America and the United Kingdom. Although it is considered rare and receives protection in England, it is widely distributed and abundant in the United States, particularly along the Atlantic coast. Recent studies suggest that both anthropogenic dispersal and reproductive plasticity may significantly influence the genetic structure of N. vectensis populations. Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) fingerprinting of individuals from nine populations in the northeastern United States indicates that stable populations are maintained by both asexual and sexual reproduction; in some cases asexually reproducing lineages exist within sexually reproducing populations. F statistics reveal extraordinarily high degrees of genetic differentiation between populations, even those separated by very short distances (less than 100 m). Genetic distances show little to no correlation with geographical distances, consistent with a role for sporadic, geographically discontinuous dispersal coupled with limited gene flow. No single genotype was found at more than one site, despite apparent homogeneity of habitat. In contrast with reported genotypic distributions for Nematostella in the United Kingdom, where a single clonal genotype dominates at multiple sites through southern England, our data thus fail to support the hypothesis of a general-purpose genotype in the northeastern United States. However, they are consistent with important roles for reproductive plasticity, sporadic introductions and complex local population dynamics in determining the global and regional distribution of this species.

Analysis of Variance↗

A longitudinal study of schistosome vector snail populations in Liberia.

Seasonal changes in populations of Biomphalaria pfeifferi and Bulinus globosus were observed at 62 locations in Liberia, West Africa. All varieties of water in both urban and rural locations were sampled. A wet season decrease and dry season increase of B. globosus populations in both urban and rural locations, similar to that reported elsewhere in West Africa, was observed. Similar fluctuations of B. pfeifferi populations were noted. The prevalence of schistosome infected vector snails varied markedly between rural and urban locations. At rural sites parasite prevalence followed the appropriate vector snail prevalence. At urban sites a portion of the vector snail population appeared relatively unaffected by seasonal changes. This stable population harbors a reservoir of infected snails that sustain year round transmission. Human infection was sampled in school children in the study area and prevalence of approximately 50% was found for both Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium. Added to the malacologic information this suggests less than hyperendemic transmission. The data suggest that urban environments should receive priorities for control programs.

Animals↗

Cage trials using an endogenous meiotic drive gene in the mosquito Aedes aegypti to promote population replacement.

Control of arthropod-borne diseases based on population replacement with genetically modified non-competent vectors has been proposed as a promising alternative to conventional control strategies. Due to likely fitness costs associated with vectors manipulated to carry anti-pathogen effector genes, the effector genes will need to be coupled with a strong drive system to rapidly sweep them into natural populations. Endogenous meiotic drive systems have strong and stable population replacement potential, and have previously been reported in two mosquito species: Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens. To investigate the influence of an endogenous meiotic drive gene on Ae. aegypti population dynamics, we established three experimental population types that were initiated with 100%, 10%, and 1% male mosquitoes carrying a strong meiotic driver (T37 strain) and 100% sensitive females (RED strain), respectively. Among the 100% and 10% populations, early generations were highly male biased, which reflected the effects of the meiotic driver, and remained more than 60% male by the F(15). A genetic marker tightly linked with the meiotic driver on chromosome 1 showed strong selection for the T37 strain-specific allele. Similar but reduced effects of the meiotic driver were also observed in the 1% populations. These results suggest that release of Ae. aegypti males carrying a strong meiotic driver into drive sensitive populations can be an effective tool for population replacement, and provide a foundation for additional studies including both experimental populations and simulations by mathematical modeling.

Aedes↗