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Ecological risk assessment framework for low-altitude aircraft overflights: I. Planning the analysis and estimating exposure.

An ecological risk assessment framework for low-altitude aircraft overflights was developed, with special emphasis on military applications. The problem formulation and exposure analysis phases are presented in this article; an analysis of effects and risk characterization is presented in a companion article. The intent of this article is threefold: (1) to illustrate the development of a generic framework for the ecological risk assessment of an activity, (2) to show how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's ecological risk assessment paradigm can be applied to an activity other than the release of a chemical, and (3) to provide guidance for the assessment of ecological risks from low-altitude aircraft overflights. The key stressor for low-altitude aircraft overflights is usually sound, although visual and physical (collision) stressors may also be significant. Susceptible and regulated wildlife populations are the major assessment endpoint entities, although plant communities may be impacted by takeoffs and landings. The exposure analysis utilizes measurements of wildlife locations, measurements of sound levels at the wildlife locations, measurements of slant distances from aircraft to wildlife, models that extrapolate sound from the source aircraft to the ground, and bird-strike probability models. Some of the challenges to conducting a risk assessment for aircraft overflights include prioritizing potential stressors and endpoints, choosing exposure metrics that relate to wildlife responses, obtaining good estimates of sound or distance, and estimating wildlife locations.

Aircraft↗

Ecological risk assessment framework for low-altitude aircraft overflights: II. Estimating effects on wildlife.

An ecological risk assessment framework for aircraft overflights has been developed, with special emphasis on military applications. This article presents the analysis of effects and risk characterization phases; the problem formulation and exposure analysis phases are presented in a companion article. The framework addresses the effects of sound, visual stressors, and collision on the abundance and production of wildlife populations. Profiles of effects, including thresholds, are highlighted for two groups of endpoint species: ungulates (hoofed mammals) and pinnipeds (seals, sea lions, walruses). Several factors complicate the analysis of effects for aircraft overflights. Studies of the effects of aircraft overflights previously have not been associated with a quantitative assessment framework; therefore no consistent relations between exposure and population-level response have been developed. Information on behavioral effects of overflights by military aircraft (or component stressors) on most wildlife species is sparse. Moreover, models that relate behavioral changes to abundance or reproduction, and those that relate behavioral or hearing effects thresholds from one population to another are generally not available. The aggregation of sound frequencies, durations, and the view of the aircraft into the single exposure metric of slant distance is not always the best predictor of effects, but effects associated with more specific exposure metrics (e.g., narrow sound spectra) may not be easily determined or added. The weight of evidence and uncertainty analyses of the risk characterization for overflights are also discussed in this article.

Aircraft↗

Risk and systems theory.

The last few decades have seen increasingly widespread use of risk assessment and management techniques as aids in making complex decisions. However, despite the progress that has been made in risk science, there still remain numerous examples of risk-based decisions and conclusions that have caused great controversy. In particular, there is a great deal of debate surrounding risk assessment: the role of values and ethics and other extra-scientific factors, the efficacy of quantitative versus qualitative analysis, and the role of uncertainty and incomplete information. Many of the epistemological and methodological issues confronting risk assessment have been explored in general systems theory, where techniques exist to manage such issues. However, the use of systems theory and systems analysis tools is still not widespread in risk management. This article builds on the Alachlor risk assessment case study of Brunk, Haworth, and Lee to present a systems-based view of the risk assessment process. The details of the case study are reviewed and the authors' original conclusions regarding the effects of extra-scientific factors on risk assessment are discussed. Concepts from systems theory are introduced to provide a mechanism with which to illustrate these extra-scientific effects The role of a systems study within a risk assessment is explained, resulting in an improved view of the problem formulation process The consequences regarding the definition of risk and its role in decision making are then explored.

Acetamides↗

Applying the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM) to portfolio selection.

The analysis of risk-return tradeoffs and their practical applications to portfolio analysis paved the way for Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which won Harry Markowitz a 1992 Nobel Prize in Economics. A typical approach in measuring a portfolio's expected return is based on the historical returns of the assets included in a portfolio. On the other hand, portfolio risk is usually measured using volatility, which is derived from the historical variance-covariance relationships among the portfolio assets. This article focuses on assessing portfolio risk, with emphasis on extreme risks. To date, volatility is a major measure of risk owing to its simplicity and validity for relatively small asset price fluctuations. Volatility is a justified measure for stable market performance, but it is weak in addressing portfolio risk under aberrant market fluctuations. Extreme market crashes such as that on October 19, 1987 ("Black Monday") and catastrophic events such as the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 that led to a four-day suspension of trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) are a few examples where measuring risk via volatility can lead to inaccurate predictions. Thus, there is a need for a more robust metric of risk. By invoking the principles of the extreme-risk-analysis method through the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM), this article contributes to the modeling of extreme risks in portfolio performance. A measure of an extreme portfolio risk, denoted by f(4), is defined as the conditional expectation for a lower-tail region of the distribution of the possible portfolio returns. This article presents a multiobjective problem formulation consisting of optimizing expected return and f(4), whose solution is determined using Evolver-a software that implements a genetic algorithm. Under business-as-usual market scenarios, the results of the proposed PMRM portfolio selection model are found to be compatible with those of the volatility-based model. However, under extremely unfavorable market conditions, results indicate that f(4) can be a more valid measure of risk than volatility.

Journal Article↗

Stressors in five client populations: Neuman systems model-based literature review.

AIM: This paper reports a literature review identifying and categorizing client system stressors in Neuman systems model-based studies. BACKGROUND: To date, literature reviews related to the Neuman systems model have focused broadly on all concepts of the model. The concept of stressors has been selected by the Neuman Systems Model Research Institute as the focus for an initial collaborative research project. METHOD: Cooper's five-stage integrative review method was used: problem formulation, data collection, data evaluation, analysis and interpretation, and dissemination. The Neuman systems model research literature from 1983 to February 2005 was searched using Fawcett's Neuman systems model bibliography and a follow-up review of the CINAHL database using the keywords 'Neuman systems model' and 'stressors'. A total of 87 studies published as journal articles or book chapters between 1983 and 2005 were reviewed; 13 of the 87 studies met the definition of 'stressor studies'. FINDINGS: Stressors were identified in five client populations: caregivers, cancer survivors, ICU patients in intensive care units, care receivers, and parents whose children were undergoing day surgery. The most common data collection method was the interview, and investigator-developed interview guides were most often used. Evidence of categorization of intra-, inter- and extra-personal stressors was present. The following overall stressors were identified: burden of responsibility (caregivers); awareness of vulnerability (cancer survivors); being overwhelmed (patients in intensive care units); loss of control (parents); and frustration with role changes (care receivers). CONCLUSIONS: These data could form the basis for nursing practice as well as future research within a collaborative environment. Given the existing body of knowledge concerning Neuman system model-derived middle range theory concepts in the caregiver population, the middle-range theory of caregiver role strain could be tested empirically.

Caregivers↗

Homecare at the end of life. A study of fifteen patients.

The study is a part of a research project on death in a sector of a large city, involved cooperation with the Franciscan Aid "home care team". The purpose was to study death in the home setting. Fifteen deaths were registered. Participant observation in the care of 14 patients were made--a total of 83 visits to homes, 2-15 visits per patient. In one case the author had contact with the relatives, after the death had occurred. Most of the patients had cancer. Their age varied from 28 to 80 years. The observations were recorded immediately after each visit. After the death of a patient a structured interview with the closest relatives and the nurse responsible were made. Their statements were used as a basis for formulating problems for the further study and the clarification of quantitative data. Results showed that the patients who chose to leave the hospital and remain at home often had negative experiences in hospital. All the patients in this study received good palliative treatment at home. All patients were also informed about their condition. One-third of the patients were readmitted to hospital during the final days.

Adult↗

Efficacy of an encapsulated probiotic Bifidobacterium infantis 35624 in women with irritable bowel syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Probiotic bacteria exhibit a variety of properties, including immunomodulatory activity, which are unique to a particular strain. Thus, not all species will necessarily have the same therapeutic potential in a particular condition. We have preliminary evidence that Bifidobacterium infantis 35624 may have utility in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to confirm the efficacy of the probiotic bacteria B. infantis 35624 in a large-scale, multicenter, clinical trial of women with IBS. A second objective of the study was to determine the optimal dosage of probiotic for administration in an encapsulated formulation. METHODS: After a 2-wk baseline, 362 primary care IBS patients, with any bowel habit subtype, were randomized to either placebo or freeze-dried, encapsulated B. infantis at a dose of 1 x 10(6), 1 x 10(8), or 1 x 10(10), cfu/mL for 4 wk. IBS symptoms were monitored daily and scored on to a 6-point Likert scale with the primary outcome variable being abdominal pain or discomfort. A composite symptom score, the subject's global assessment of IBS symptom relief, and measures of quality of life (using the IBS-QOL instrument) were also recorded. RESULTS: B. infantis 35624 at a dose of 1 x 10(8) cfu was significantly superior to placebo and all other bifidobacterium doses for the primary efficacy variable of abdominal pain as well as the composite score and scores for bloating, bowel dysfunction, incomplete evacuation, straining, and the passage of gas at the end of the 4-wk study. The improvement in global symptom assessment exceeded placebo by more than 20% (p < 0.02). Two other doses of probiotic (1 x 10(6) and 1 x 10(10)) were not significantly different from placebo; of these, the 1 x 10(10) dose was associated with significant formulation problems. No significant adverse events were recorded. CONCLUSIONS: B. infantis 35624 is a probiotic that specifically relieves many of the symptoms of IBS. At a dosage level of 1 x 10(8) cfu, it can be delivered by a capsule making it stable, convenient to administer, and amenable to widespread use. The lack of benefits observed with the other dosage levels of the probiotic highlight the need for clinical data in the final dosage form and dose of probiotic before these products should be used in practice.

Adolescent↗

Prediction of muscle recruitment and its effect on joint reaction forces during knee exercises.

This study examined the hypothesis that muscle recruitment of the tibiofemoral joint and joint reaction forces during isometric and isokinetic exercises depends on the existing degrees of freedom of the knee and the direction and type of external load applied during exercise. When three-dimensional knee joint rotation was considered (three degrees of freedom), antagonistic muscle activities were predicted using an inverse dynamic problem formulation and muscle modeling optimization procedures. The results showed that the antagonistic activities of flexors during knee flexion/extension exercise increased the joint compressive forces and decreased the anterior tibial shear forces. Comparison of different knee joint modeling assumptions indicated that modeling a single degree of freedom in flexion/extension for the knee will underestimate the antagonistic muscle function.

Biomechanical Phenomena↗

Theoretical prediction of muscle forces on the mandible during bite.

We present a mathematical model to determine the contribution of each muscle acting on the mandible in the development of a given bite force. We give special attention to the representation of the widely radiated temporalis and account for the attachment of the external pterygoid to the capsular ligament. An optimization technique based on minimizing the maximum stress occurring in the muscles is used to resolve the statically indeterminant nature of the problem formulated. The theoretically predicted values of the muscle forces are compared to experimental results taken from the literature.

Bite Force↗

Multiple minima in inverse hyperthermia temperature estimation problems.

Using one-, two-, and three-dimensional numerical simulation models it is shown that multiple minima solutions exist for some inverse hyperthermia temperature estimation problems. This is a new observation that has important implications for all potential applications of these inverse techniques. The general conditions under which these multiple minima occur are shown to be solely due to the existence of symmetries in the bio-heat transfer model used to solve the inverse problem. General rules for determining the number of these global minimum points in the unknown parameter (perfusion) space are obtained for several geometrically symmetric (with respect to the sensor placement and the inverse case blood perfusion model) one-, two-, and three-dimensional problem formulations with multiple perfusion regions when no model mismatch is present. As the amount of this symmetry is successively reduced, all but one of these global minima caused by symmetry become local minima. A general approach for (a) detecting when the inverse algorithm has converged to a local minimum, and (b) for using that knowledge to direct the search algorithm toward the global minimum is presented. A three-dimensional, random perfusion distribution example is given which illustrates the effects of the multiple minima on the performance of a state and parameter estimation algorithm. This algorithm attempts to reconstruct the entire temperature field during simulated hyperthermia treatments based on knowledge of measured temperatures from a limited number of locations.

Algorithms↗

A hybrid gene team model and its application to genome analysis.

It is well-known that functionally related genes occur in a physically clustered form, especially operons in bacteria. By leveraging on this fact, there has recently been an interesting problem formulation known as gene team model, which searches for a set of genes that co-occur in a pair of closely related genomes. However, many gene teams, even experimentally verified operons, frequently scatter within other genomes. Thus, the gene team model should be refined to reflect this observation. In this paper, we generalized the gene team model, that looks for gene clusters in a physically clustered form, to multiple genome cases with relaxed constraints. We propose a novel hybrid pattern model that combines the set and the sequential pattern models. Our model searches for gene clusters with and/or without physical proximity constraint. This model is implemented and tested with 97 genomes (120 replicons). The result was analyzed to show the usefulness of our model. We also compared the result from our hybrid model to those from the traditional gene team model. We also show that predicted gene teams can be used for various genome analysis: operon prediction, phylogenetic analysis of organisms, contextual sequence analysis and genome annotation. Our program is fast enough to provide a service on the web at http://platcom.informatics.indiana.edu/platcom/. Users can select any combination of 97 genomes to predict gene teams.

Algorithms↗

The use of decision analysis for organizational design: reorganizing a community hospital.

Organizational design is presented as a decision process, with specific structures seen as providing alternative choices. To illustrate this, the authors present the case of a major metropolitan hospital that used the process to coordinate service delivery (nursing care versus patient care) and service focus (product oriented versus function oriented). Through interviews with more than 40 hospital administrators and staff, the authors created a list of 20 attributes, and used simple multi-attribute utility analysis to generate six design alternatives. The decision makers unanimously chose one alternative, even though potential for significant conflict existed because of differing values and objectives. The authors find decision analytic techniques useful for both the problem formulation and for generating and evaluating structural alternatives, and conclude that in this case consensus was facilitated by the decision process used.

Data Collection↗

Consultation letters as a method for assessing in-training performance in a department of medicine.

This study examined the feasibility of using outpatient consultation letters as a means of assessing the clinical performance of clerks and house staff in a large teaching hospital. A total of 222 assessments were obtained based on samples of consultation problems from two clinical services. The method involved a two-stage rating scale based on the performance areas of Data Base, Problem Formulation, Diagnostic Tests, Management and Overall Assessment. The technique was investigated in terms of the objectivity, reliability, validity and efficiency of the performance ratings. Product-moment coefficients were used to assess inter- and intrarater agreement in scoring the consultation letters. These analyses identified a consistent difficulty in assessing the category of Data Base. For the remaining performance categories, interrater coefficients in the range .19-.76 and intrarater coefficients in the range .23-.96 were obtained. Other preliminary findings indicated good potential for a reliable and valid assessment. The method is technically feasible, and is based on a novel and reasonably unobtrusive approach to assessing trainee performance in a clinical setting.

Canada↗

Unsaturated consolidation theory for the prediction of long-term municipal solid waste landfill settlement.

The understanding of long-term landfill settlement is important for landfill design and rehabilitation. However, suitable models that can consider both the mechanical and biodecomposition mechanisms in predicting the long-term landfill settlement are generally not available. In this paper, a model based on unsaturated consolidation theory and considering the biodegradation process is introduced to simulate the landfill settlement behaviour. The details of problem formulations and the derivation of the solution for the formulated differential equation of gas pressure are presented. A step-by-step analytical procedure employing this approach for estimating settlement is proposed. The proposed model can generally model the typical features of short-term and long-term behaviour. The proposed model also yields results that are comparable with the field measurements.

Air Movements↗

Gas chromatography/mass spectrometry identification and quantification of isazophos in a famphur pour-on and in bovine tissues after a toxic exposure.

A sample identified as "Warbex pour-on," expected to contain 13.2% famphur, and bovine tissue samples from 2 heifers that died after exhibiting signs of organophosphate intoxication were analyzed by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). A product formulation problem was suspected because brain cholinesterase activities were depressed in both animals. Electron impact (EI) GC/MS of the pour-on revealed 9.7% famphur and an unidentified peak with approximately 76% of the peak area of the famphur. The unidentified peak showed a molecular ion at m/z 313, with a single Cl isotope cluster. Methane chemical ionization (MeCI) MS confirmed the molecular weight at 313 (1 Cl). A search on the molecular formula C9H17N3O3PSCl yielded a single match, isazophos. EI and MeCI GC/MS of reference isazophos confirmed the identity of the suspect peak. The concentration of isazophos in the pour-on was determined to be 6.0%. Famphur and isazophos were identified by their EI spectra and GC retention times in extracts of liver and brain from the 2 deceased animals. A GC/MS procedure utilizing selected ion monitoring (SIM) was developed for quantification of isazophos in liver, kidney, muscle, and fat of additional affected animals sacrificed at various times after exposure. Isazophos remained in animal tissues for as long as 94 days after topical exposure. Isazophos was present in fetal liver 70 days after exposure of the dam. High levels (6-3,500 ppm) of isazophos and famphur remained on the skin at 39 days postexposure.

Animals↗

An overview of the integrative research review.

The integrative literature review has many benefits to the scholarly reviewer, including evaluating the strength of the scientific evidence, identifying gaps in current research, identifying the need for future research, bridging between related areas of work, identifying central issues in an area, generating a research question, identifying a theoretical or conceptual framework, and exploring which research methods have been used successfully. The 5-stage integrative review process includes (1) problem formulation, (2) data collection or literature search, (3) evaluation of data, (4) data analysis, and (5) interpretation and presentation of results. Maintaining scientific integrity while conducting an integrative research review involves careful consideration to threats to validity. Strategies to overcome these threats are reviewed. The integrative review methodology must involve detailed and thoughtful work, the outcome of which can be a significant contribution to a particular body of knowledge and, consequently, to practice and research.

Research Design↗

Nuclear waste transportation: case studies of identifying stakeholder risk information needs.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for the cleanup of our nation's nuclear legacy, involving complex decisions about how and where to dispose of nuclear waste and how to transport it to its ultimate disposal site. It is widely recognized that a broad range of stakeholders and tribes should be involved in this kind of decision. All too frequently, however, stakeholders and tribes are only invited to participate by commenting on processes and activities that are near completion; they are not included in the problem formulation stages. Moreover, it is often assumed that high levels of complexity and uncertainty prevent meaningful participation by these groups. Considering the types of information that stakeholders and tribes need to be able to participate in the full life cycle of decision making is critical for improving participation and transparency of decision making. Toward this objective, the Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation (CRESP) participated in three public processes relating to nuclear waste transportation and disposal in 1997-1998. First, CRESP organized focus groups to identify concerns about nuclear waste transportation. Second, CRESP conducted exit surveys at regional public workshops held by DOE to get input from stakeholders on intersite waste transfer issues. Third, CRESP developed visual tools to synthesize technical information and allow stakeholders and tribes with varying levels of knowledge about nuclear waste to participate in meaningful discussion. In this article we share the results of the CRESP findings, discuss common themes arising from these interactions, and comment on special considerations needed to facilitate stakeholder and tribal participation in similar decision-making processes.

Communication↗

Incorporating children's toxicokinetics into a risk framework.

Children's responses to environmental toxicants will be affected by the way in which their systems absorb, distribute, metabolize, and excrete chemicals. These toxicokinetic factors vary during development, from in utero where maternal and placental processes play a large role, to the neonate in which emerging metabolism and clearance pathways are key determinants. Toxicokinetic differences between neonates and adults lead to the potential for internal dosimetry differences and increased or decreased risk, depending on the mechanisms for toxicity and clearance of a given chemical. This article raises a number of questions that need to be addressed when conducting a toxicokinetic analysis of in utero or childhood exposures. These questions are organized into a proposed framework for conducting the assessment that involves problem formulation (identification of early life stage toxicokinetic factors and chemical-specific factors that may raise questions/concerns for children); data analysis (development of analytic approach, construction of child/adult or child/animal dosimetry comparisons); and risk characterization (evaluation of how children's toxicokinetic analysis can be used to decrease uncertainties in the risk assessment). The proposed approach provides a range of analytical options, from qualitative to quantitative, for assessing children's dosimetry. Further, it provides background information on a variety of toxicokinetic factors that can vary as a function of developmental stage. For example, the ontology of metabolizing systems is described via reference to pediatric studies involving therapeutic drugs and evidence from in vitro enzyme studies. This type of resource information is intended to help the assessor begin to address the issues raised in this paper.

Adult↗