Age and follicular phase estradiol are better predictors of pregnancy outcome than luteinizing hormone in menotropin ovulation induction for anovulatory polycystic ovarian syndrome.
OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship of baseline and preovulatory serum E2, P, and LH levels and age with pregnancy outcome in polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) patients undergoing hMG ovulation induction. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of all available data over 2 years. SETTING: Tertiary referral ovulation induction clinic. SUBJECTS: Forty-four anovulatory PCOS patients with 25 ovulatory nonconception and 50 conception cycles after hMG ovulation induction. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Ovulation (midluteal serum P > 25 nmol/L [7.86 ng/mL]); pregnancy (serum beta-hCG > 30 mIU/mL 16 days after ovulating injection); pregnancy outcome: pregnancy termination < 20 weeks' or > or = 20 weeks' amenorrhea. RESULTS: Of the endocrine parameters considered, none was significantly different in nonconceptive and conceptive ovulatory cycles. Miscarriage was associated with low basal serum E2: median value for pregnancies ending < 20 weeks, 105 pmol/L (28.6 pg/mL) and for > or = 20 weeks 150 pmol/L (40.9 pg/mL). It was also significantly associated with age. For patients > 29.5 years of age, (29.5 years, population mean age) a baseline E2 < or = 140 pmol/L (38.2 pg/mL) had sensitivity 92%, specificity 54%, positive predictive value 65%, and negative predictive value 87% for the prediction of miscarriage. The nature of the previous cycle, the day of the cycle on which therapy commenced, and a past history of miscarriage were not related either to pregnancy outcome or to basal serum E2.