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Prognostic factors in gliomas. A multivariate analysis of clinical, pathologic, flow cytometric, cytogenetic, and molecular markers.

BACKGROUND: The ability to divide subsets of patients with glial neoplasms into prognostic groups currently is limited because only a few clinical and pathologic variables are available. The goal of this investigation was to identify biologic factors of potential prognostic value in patients with cerebral gliomas. METHODS: This prospective investigation used clinical, pathologic, flow cytometric, cytogenetic, and molecular genetic variables as potential prognostic factors in 207 patients with newly diagnosed gliomas (153 astrocytic tumors of the fibrillary type, 31 oligodendrogliomas, and 23 pilocytic astrocytomas). Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was performed as part of the multivariate statistical analysis. RESULTS: The age of the patient and the grade of the tumor were confirmed as strong prognostic factors. Cytogenetic or molecular genetic abnormalities of chromosomes 7 and 10 were associated with poor survival in univariate analysis (P < 0.0001). CART multivariate analysis identified several subsets of patients with different prognoses. In the subset of patients younger than 66.5 years with Grade 4 tumors, the survival time was longer for those with aneuploid tumors than for those with nonaneuploid tumors. In the subset of patients with Grades 1-3 tumors, the survival time was longer for those whose tumors had a %G2M of less than 6.9 than for those whose tumors had a %G2M of 6.9 or greater. CONCLUSION: This investigation provides further evidence that flow cytometry, cytogenetic, and molecular genetic factors that may have prognostic value in patients with gliomas can be identified.

Adult↗

MUC1 expression and anti-MUC1 serum immune response in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC): a multivariate analysis.

BACKGROUND: HNSCC progression to adjacent tissue and nodes may be mediated by altered glycoproteins and glycolipids such as MUC1 mucin. This report constitutes a detailed statistical study about MUC1 expression and anti-MUC1 immune responses in relation to different clinical and pathological parameters which may be useful to develop new anti HNSCC therapeutic strategies. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fifty three pre treatment HNSCC patients were included: 26 (49.1%) bearing oral cavity tumors, 17 (32.1%) localized in the larynx and 10 (18.8%) in the pharynx. Three patients (5.7%) were at stage I, 5 (9.4%) stage II, 15 (28.3%) stage III and 30 (56.6%) at stage IV. MUC1 tumor expression was studied by immunohistochemistry employing two anti-MUC1 antibodies: CT33, anti cytoplasmic tail MUC1 polyclonal antibody (Ab) and C595 anti-peptidic core MUC1 monoclonal antibody. Serum levels of MUC1 and free anti-MUC1 antibodies were detected by ELISA and circulating immune complexes (CIC) by precipitation in polyethylene glycol (PEG) 3.5%; MUC1 isolation from circulating immune complexes was performed by protein A-sepharose CL-4B affinity chromatography followed by SDS-PAGE and Western blot. Statistical analysis consisted in Multivariate Principal Component Analysis (PCA); ANOVA test (Tukey's test) was employed to find differences among groups; nonparametrical correlations (Kendall's Tau) were applied when necessary. Statistical significance was set to p < 0.05 in all cases. RESULTS: MUC1 cytoplasmic tail was detected in 40/50 (80%) and MUC1 protein core in 9/50 (18%) samples while serum MUC1 levels were elevated in 8/53 (15%) patients. A significant statistical correlation was found between MUC1 serum levels and anti-MUC1 IgG free antibodies, while a negative correlation between MUC1 serum levels and anti-MUC1 IgM free antibodies was found. Circulating immune complexes were elevated in 16/53 (30%) samples and were also statistically associated with advanced tumor stage. MUC1 was identified as an antigenic component of IgG circulating immune complexes. Moreover, poorly differentiated tumors were inversely correlated with tumor and serum MUC1 detection and positively correlated with node involvement and tumor mass. CONCLUSION: Possibly, tumor cells produce MUC1 mucin which is liberated to the circulation and captured by IgG antibodies forming MUC1-IgG-CIC. Another interesting conclusion is that poorly differentiated tumors are inversely correlated with tumor and serum MUC1 detection.

Adult↗

Living-related versus deceased donor pediatric liver transplantation: a multivariate analysis of technical and immunological complications in 235 recipients.

Timely access to a living donor (LD) reduced pretransplant mortality in pediatric liver transplantation (LT). We hypothesized that this strategy may provide better posttransplant outcome. Between July 1993 and April 2002, 235 children received a primary LT from a LD (n = 100) or a deceased donor (DD) (n = 135). Demographic, surgical and immunological variables were compared, and respective impact on posttransplant complications was studied using a multivariate analysis. Five-year patient survival rates were 92% and 85% for groups LD and DD, respectively (p = 0.181), the corresponding graft survival rates being 89% and 77% (p = 0.033). At multivariate analysis: (1) type of donor (DD) was correlated with higher rate of artery thrombosis (p < 0.012); (2) biliary complication rate at 5 years was 29% and 23% for groups LD and DD, respectively (p = 0.451); (3) lower acute rejection incidence could be correlated with type of donor (DD) (p = 0.001), and immunosuppressive therapy (tacrolimus) (p < 0.001). We conclude that (1) according to the multivariate analysis, LT with LD provided similar patient and graft outcome, when compared to DD; (2) a higher rate of artery thrombosis and a lower rate of rejection were observed in group DD; (3) this study confirms the efficacy of tacrolimus for immunoprophylaxis, whatever the type of organ donor is.

Adolescent↗

Risk factors for mortality and morbidity after elective sigmoid resection for diverticulitis: prospective multicenter multivariate analysis of 582 patients.

The prevalence of diverticular disease of the colon is increasing in occidental countries. It would be useful to further decrease the mortality and morbidity after elective sigmoid resection (ESR) for diverticulitis. The aim of this study was to identify modifiable preoperative and intraoperative risk factors for mortality and morbidity after ESR for diverticulitis. A database of 2615 patients who underwent a colon or rectal resection with primary anastomosis between 1985 to 1998 has been constructed from prospective randomized studies published by a French surgical group. Of those patients, 582 had undergone ESR for diverticulitis, and they constitute the population of the present study. A total of 46 potential preoperative and intraoperative risk factors for mortality and morbidity have been studied by univariate and multivariate analysis. The operative mortality for our series was 1.2%, and the overall morbidity was 24.9%. The multivariate analysis revealed two statistically significant independent risk factors of mortality: age >75 (odds-ratio=7.9; 95% confidence interval [CI 1.7-36.6]; p=0.01) and obesity (odds-ratio=5.2; 95% CI [1.1-27.9]; p=0.04). The abdominal morbidity (AM) was 6.5% (38/582). The absence of antimicrobial prophylaxis administration with ceftriaxone was the only significant risk factor for AM in multivariate analysis (p=0.003; odds-ratio=2; 95% CI [1.1-4]). The extraabdominal morbidity (EAM) was 18.4% (107/582). Both chronic pulmonary disease (p=0.008; odds-ratio=2.9; 95% CI [1.4-6]; p=0.008) and cirrhosis (odds-ratio=12; 95% CI [1.2-120]) proved to be significant risk factors for EAM. Weight control prior to surgery, routine administration of prophylactic preoperative antibiotics, and preoperative optimization of the respiratory status of patients with chronic pulmonary disease could decrease the postoperative mortality and morbidity associated with ESR for diverticulitis.

Aged↗

Multivariate analysis of bcl-2, apoptosis, P53 and HER-2/neu in breast cancer: a short-term follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Several molecular genetic alterations in breast cancer, including aneuploidy, altered apoptosis, aberrant expression of p53, HER-2/neu and Bcl-2, have been associated with poor prognosis in breast cancer patients. To determine the importance of molecular-genetic factors relative to more traditional surgical-pathological prognostic factors, multivariate analysis was performed. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Ninety-four fresh tissue samples of primary breast carcinoma were studied with flow cytometry for DNA ploidy. On the same specimens, steroid hormone receptors (ER and PR) were measured in the cytosol fraction using Abbott ELISA assays. HER-2/neu was determined in the membrane fraction and mutant p53 protein in the nuclear fraction, both, by Oncogene Science ELIZA procedures. Bcl-2 and apoptosis (cell death) were measured in cell lysates by Oncogene Science & Boehringer Mannheim ELISA assays. In addition, information regarding surgical-pathological features of the tumor was obtained. Multivariate analysis using an unconditional logistic regression model was done to identify variables predictive of poor prognosis. RESULTS: Using univariate analysis, histological grade, tumor stage, lymph node status, HER-2/neu and mutant p53 were predictive of poor short-term prognosis. By multivariate analysis, tumor stage, lymph node status and HER-2/neu were independent factors. Grade subgroup analysis versus time of relapse, illustrated a predictive value of Bcl-2 in only low-grade tumors while apoptosis was significant in high-grade type. CONCLUSION: Among a panel of molecular-genetic factors investigated, HER-2/neu was the most strongly predictive of poor short-term prognosis in breast cancer. Patients with HER-2/neu-positive tumors can benefit from Herceptin therapy.

Adult↗

[Risk factors for secondary cataract: a case-control study with multivariate analysis].

AIM: A retrospective case-control study was initiated to determine the risk factors for the development of posterior capsule opacification. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: 100 cases of patients with secondary cataract treated by YAG laser capsulotomy were compared with 100 controls (patients who had cataract surgery not complicated with a secondary cataract). The posterior capsule was examined by the biomicroscope. A 1-to-1 matched case-control study was designed by stratifying inclusions on the basis of age, sex, and delay. We studied the risk factors related to the patient, the primary cataract, the surgical technique, the surgeon's skill, and intraoperative and postoperative complications. All the lenses were biconvex and all-PMMA with the same design. Statistical analysis was done in 3 steps: a univariate analysis, then a bivariate analysis using chi-square and the Student tests and finally, we performed a multivariate analysis with a logistic regression. The significance level for type I error rate was fixed at 5%. RESULTS: The average age was 61.6 years. The mean delay was 32.7 months for cases and 34.5 months for controls. The bivariate analysis identified nine risk factors: corneal opacities (p=0.031), absence of a posterior chamber lens p=10(- 4)), the can opener anterior capsulotomy (p=0.003), ciliary sulcus fixation of the lens p=0.030), a large optic diameter of 7mm p=10(- 5)) and (t=0.002), poor intraoperative pupillary dilatation (p=0.003), a less experienced surgeon (p=3.10(- 4)), postoperative inflammation (p=0.021), and persistence of residual cortical material (p=0.002). The multivariate analysis selected five principal factors: absence of a posterior chamber lens, an optic diameter of 7mm, poor intraoperative pupillary dilatation, a less skilled surgeon, and persistence of cortical material. CONCLUSION: This case-control study reveals some of the risk factors previously identified and may contribute to the determination of methods for prevention of secondary cataract. The new intraocular lenses and pharmacological agents would lead to better results.

Analysis of Variance↗

Multivariate analysis of DNA ploidy, p53, c-erbB-2 proteins, EGFR, and steroid hormone receptors for short-term prognosis in breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Several molecular-genetic alterations in breast cancer, including aneuploidy, aberrant expression of p53, c-erbB-2, and EGFR have been associated with poor prognosis in breast cancer particularly in lymph node negative patients. To determine the importance of molecular-genetic factors relative to more traditional surgical-pathologic prognostic factors, a multivariate analysis was performed particularly in lymph node positive breast cancer cases. METHODS: One hundred fresh samples of primary breast carcinoma have been studied with flow cytometry for DNA ploidy. On the same specimens steroid hormone receptors (ER and PR) were measured in cytosol fraction using Abbott ELIZA assays, c-erbB-2 and EGFR were determined in the tissue homogenate and mutant p53 protein in the nuclear fraction by Oncogene Science ELISA procedures. In addition, information regarding surgical-pathologic features of the tumor was obtained. Multivariate analysis using Cox's proportional hazards model was done to identify variables predictive of poor prognosis. RESULTS: With univariate analysis, tumor size, lymphnode number, p53, c-erbB-2 were predictive of poor short term prognosis. In the multivariate analysis, only c-erbB-2 (P = 0.001) and p53 (P = 0.05) were significant. Subgroup analysis by nodal status yielded significant association of c-erbB-2 (P = 0.001) and p53 (P = 0.04) with lymph node positive breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Among molecular-genetic prognostic factors, c-erbB-2 was the most strongly predictive of poor short term prognosis followed by p53 in lymph node positive breast cancer.

Adult↗

A multivariate analysis of Pleistocene hominids: testing hypothesis of European origins.

Multivariate analysis of intra- and inter-group variability in Middle and Upper Pleistocene human remains, based on facial traits, show close affinities between Upper Palaeolithic and Mesolithic samples, which are clearly distinct from Lower Palaeolithic and Neanderthal samples. The between-group differences observed were significant, although no sexual differentiation was considered. This allowed the classification of the fossil remains by discriminant analysis. A modern metrical pattern can be recognized for the Upper Palaeolithic sample, falling within the variability of anatomically modern humans. The samples from Skhul and Qafzeh, although exhibiting some plesiomorphous traits, also show modern-like metrical traits. The analysis strongly support a monophyletic origin for modern humans.

Animals↗

Multivariate analysis of DNA ploidy, p53, c-erbB-2 proteins, EGFR, and steroid hormone receptors for prediction of poor short term prognosis in breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Several molecular-genetic alterations in breast cancer, including aneuploidy, aberrant expression of p53, c-erbB-2 and EGFR, have been associated with poor prognosis in breast cancer patients particularly those who are lymph node negative. To determine the importance of molecular-genetic factors relative to more traditional surgical-pathologic prognostic factors, multivariate analysis was performed on lymph node positive breast cancer cases. METHODS: One hundred fresh samples of primary breast carcinoma were studied with flow cytometry for DNA ploidy. On the same specimens steroid hormone receptors (ER and PR) were measured in the cytosol fraction using Abbott ELIZA assays, c-erbB-2 and EGFR were determined in the membrane fraction and mutant p53 protein in the nuclear fraction by Oncogene Science ELISA procedures. In addition, information regarding surgical-pathologic features of the tumor was obtained. Multivariate analysis using Cox's proportional hazards model was done to identify variables predictive of poor prognosis. RESULTS: Using univariate analysis, tumor size, lymph node number, p53, c-erbB-2 were predictive of poor short term prognosis. By multivariate analysis, only c-erbB-2 (P = 0.001) and p53 (P = 0.05) were significant. Subsgroup analysis by nodal status yields a significant association of c-erbB-2 (P = 0.001) and p53 (P = 0.04) with lymph node positive breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Among molecular-genetic prognostic factors, c-erbB-2 was the most strongly predictive of poor short term prognosis followed by p53 in lymph node positive breast cancer.

Adult↗

Epithelial cells in bone marrow of oesophageal cancer patients: a significant prognostic factor in multivariate analysis.

The detection of epithelial cells in bone marrow, blood or lymph nodes indicates a disseminatory potential of solid tumours. 225 patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus were prospectively studied. Prior to any therapy, cytokeratin-positive (CK) cells in bone marrow were immunocytochemically detected in 75 patients with the monoclonal anti-epithelial-cell antibody A45-B/B3 and correlated with established histopathologic and patient-specific prognosis factors. The prognosis factors were assessed by multivariate analysis. Twenty-nine of 75 (38.7%) patients with oesophageal cancer showed CK-positive cells in bone marrow. The analyses of the mean and median overall survival time showed a significant difference between patients with and without epithelial cells in bone marrow (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis in the total patient population and in patients with curative resection of the primary tumour confirmed the curative resection rate and the bone marrow status as the strongest independent prognostic factors, besides the T-category. The detection of epithelial cells in bone marrow of oesophageal cancer patients is a substantial prognostic factor proved by multivariate analysis and is helpful for exact preoperative staging, as well as monitoring of neoadjuvant therapy.

Adult↗

[Multivariate analysis for the prediction of recurrence in colorectal cancer].

We developed a predictive scale for cancer recurrence by conducting a multivariate analysis (Hayashi's discriminant analysis of qualitative data) on clinicopathologic indicators in 207 patients with Dukes' B or C colorectal cancer who underwent curative resection at our institution. Seven indicators were found to have prognostic value. Nodal status, which was divided into five categories according to the level and number of positive nodes, had the highest coefficient as a predictor of recurrence. The correlation ratio between the group showing recurrence and that showing non-recurrence was 0.49, with 74% discrimination success rate. Liver or lung metastases were more accurately discriminated than local or peritoneal failure. We assessed the accuracy of this predictive scale in 110 patients with Dukes' B or C colorectal cancer who had been surgically treated at another institution (National Cancer Center, Tokyo), and determined it to be 68%. We think that this scale using multivariate analysis for the prediction of cancer recurrence has significant clinical application in the selection of more effective postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy. It is concluded that the present predictive scale is clinically useful, but that the inclusion of other indicators such as immunohistological ones is required to increase its predictive precision.

Colorectal Neoplasms↗

[A histopathological study on postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma--an evaluation based on multivariate analysis].

On postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a multivariate analysis of Cox's regression model was conducted to determine the prognostic factors using histopathological findings of HCC and disease-free survival period. There were 105 males and 14 females (mean age +/- standard deviation: 56.1 +/- 8.2 yr) who had curative resection of HCC from 1979 to 1989. The histopathological findings were 11 factors as follows; (1) diameter (2) number (3) histology (4) Edmondson classification (5) fc (6) fc-inf (7) sf (8) sf-inf (9) v (10) daughter nodule and (11) necrotic ration. From this analysis, among 11 histopathological parameters, only diameter of HCC (p = 0.0029) was identified as a favorable independent prognostic predictor. Regarding to the tumor size with the hazard ratio, the tumor size of 4cm or less is seen to be the satisfactory means for assessing long-term disease-free survival of HCC.

Adult↗

Multivariate analysis of multichannel surface myoelectric signals to determine muscular fatigue.

Multivariate analysis would be effective in finding the functional change from several variables obtained from multivariate biological signals. We applied this idea to the discrimination of sustained fatiguing contraction from negative ramp contraction. The time-series of eigenvalues were obtained from multidimensional biological variables by the Karhunen-Loève expansion. The results showed that, the first and second eigenvalues came close to each other during fatiguing contraction, whereas only the first eigenvalue was dominant during negative ramp contraction. Moreover, the factor loadings showed considerable difference between fatiguing contraction and negative ramp contraction. As a result, the muscular-fatigue-related functional change could be represented clearly by the time-series of proportions and factor loadings.

Electromyography↗

Prognostic factors in inflammatory breast cancer. Univariate and multivariate analysis.

Between 1958 and 1985, 107 patients with nonmetastatic inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) received radiotherapy as all or part of initial treatment at the Mallinckrodt Institute of Radiology. For this review, the diagnosis of IBC was made on the basis of either clinical or histopathologic criteria. Fifteen factors of potential prognostic significance were evaluated, by both univariate and multivariate analysis. For relapse-free survival, univariate analysis suggested prognostic value for initial tumor size, discrete versus diffuse tumor mass, adjuvant chemotherapy, and mastectomy. In the multivariate analysis, the independent prognostic factors, in order of significance, were mastectomy, diffuse versus discrete tumor mass, and race (marginal). For survival, univariate analysis suggested prognostic value for initial tumor size, diffuse versus discrete tumor mass, nodal stage, year of treatment, adjuvant chemotherapy, and mastectomy. In the multivariate analysis, the prognostic factors in order of significance were mastectomy and chemotherapy (marginal). The diagnostic selection group showed no prognostic value, suggesting that either clinical or histopathologic criteria justify the diagnosis of IBC. Our results appear to support a role for surgery as part of the combined modality approach to this disease.

Adult↗

Recurrent and/or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma: a clinical, univariate and multivariate analysis of response and survival with cisplatin-based chemotherapy.

One hundred two patients with recurrent and/or metastatic head and neck squamous cell cancer were entered into four consecutive phase II trials, all cisplatinum (C-DDP, 100 mg/m2/cycle)-based. The two combinations tried were C-DDP, bleomycin, and fluorouracil (CFB) on 54 patients, and cisplatinum and vindesin in 36 patients (CV). The CFB combination was given with C-DDP by continuous infusion over 96 hours (23 patients) or on day 1 (31 patients). The CV regimen was also given in two different schedules, with VDS at 3 mg/m2/g weekly (12 patients) or by a 96-hour continuous infusion (0.6 to 1.0 mg/m2/d) in 24 patients. The following variables: sex, age, performance status, previous therapy, local recurrence, length of disease-free interval (DFI), distant metastases, weight loss, primary site, histological differentiation, type of chemotherapy, previous chemotherapy, evaluable/measurable disease, erythrosedimentation rate, and their relation with response to chemotherapy (WHO) and survival were submitted to both univariate and multivariate analysis (Cox). Overall response rate (RR:CR + PR) was 25 (28%) of 90. In the CFB protocols, RR was 12 (22%) of 54 vs. 13 (38%) of 36 (P = 0.15, NS) in the CV combination group. For the four different combinations the RR was CFB C-DDPci 7 (30%) of 23, CFB C-DDP 1 hour 5 (16%) of 31, CV VDS weekly 2 (17%) of 12, CV VDSci 11 (45%) of 24. The patient populations were very different, with the latest combination consisting of metastatic patients exclusively. Univariate analysis of multiple variables showed age less than 60 years, PS:0 or 1, no previous therapy, absence of local relapse, metastatic disease, long DFI, and that measurable disease was significant for the probability of response. Median survival was 7 months for the 90 evaluated patients, 5 months for nonresponders, and 9 months for responders (P = 0.01). In the univariate analysis, significant factors for survival were PS:0 or 1, a weight loss below 10%, long DFI, response to chemotherapy, erythrosedimentation rate (ESR) of less than 30 mm/1st hr, presence of bone metastasis, and the number of metastases. Multivariate analysis shows PS, the absence of local relapse, and disease-free interval as significant prognostic factors for response. Multivariate analysis factors of significance for survival were PS, weight loss, and response to chemotherapy. The analysis of the clinical pattern showed an evolution in RR from 3 (8%) of 36 on previously irradiated local recurrent disease to 8 (73%) of 11 in previously untreated patients with metastatic disease at presentation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Adult↗

Prognostic evaluation of early indicators in fulminant hepatic failure by multivariate analysis.

Viral hepatitis is the commonest cause of fulminant hepatic failure (FHF) in developing countries. We evaluated the early indicators of prognosis in these patients by multivariate analysis. The records of 204 consecutive patients with acute liver failure admitted with hepatic encephalopathy over five years were studied. The etiology of these patients included virus related in 186 (91.1%), drug induced in 15 (7.4%), Wilson's disease in one (0.5%), acute Budd-Chiari syndrome in one (0.5%), and malignant infiltration in one (0.5%). Patients with FHF complicating viral hepatitis were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analysis. These patients were further subclassified depending upon the interval between the onset of jaundice and the onset of encephalopathy into hyperacute (HALF; interval 0-7 days), acute (ALF; interval 8-28 days) and subacute liver failure (SALF; interval 4-12 weeks). Sixty (32.3%) patients with viral hepatitis survived. Univariate analysis showed that the interval between onset of encephalopathy and onset of jaundice, grade of encephalopathy, raised intracranial pressure, prothrombin time, and serum bilirubin levels on admission were related to outcome in these patients. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the presence of raised intracranial pressure at the time of admission, prothrombin time >100 sec on admission, age (>50 yr), and onset of encephalopathy seven days after onset of jaundice were associated with poor prognosis. Forty seven (37.0%) of 129 patients with HALF survived compared with 9 (22.5%) of 40 with ALF and 4 (21.1%) of 19 with SALF (P = NS). Raised intracranial pressure was more frequent in patients with HALF (48.8%) than in patients with ALF (32.5%) and SALF (15.8%; P = 0.01), while clinically detectable ascites was more frequent in patients with SALF (78.9%) compared with HALF (19.7%) and ALF (37.5%; P < 0.0001). The factors adversely affecting the outcome in our patients with FHF complicating viral hepatitis include presence of overt clinical features of raised ICP at the time of hospitalization, prothrombin time (>100 sec) on admission, age (>50 yr), and onset of encephalopathy seven days after onset of jaundice.

Adolescent↗

Prognosis in acute renal failure of septic origin: a multivariate analysis.

The goal of the present study was to identify variables associated with the outcome of patients with acute renal failure (ARF) of septic origin, using multivariate analysis. The records of 168 patients were reviewed retrospectively and a crude mortality of 74% was found. Both univariate as well as multivariate analysis demonstrated an association between mortality and variables which depended on patient related factors. These included age over 60 years and several underlying diseases such as pneumonia, peritonitis, and organ dysfunction. Only one variable (late oliguria) related to the ARF itself. Thus, outcome seems related to underlying disease more than to severity of ARF.

Acute Kidney Injury↗

Locoregional recurrence of breast cancer following mastectomy: always a fatal event? Results of univariate and multivariate analysis.

PURPOSE: The outcome of patients with local-regional breast cancer recurrence after mastectomy often is described as fatal. However, certain subgroups with favorable prognoses are thought to exist. To determine these favorable subgroups, we analyzed prognostic factors for their influence on postrecurrence survival by univariate and multivariate analysis. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Between 1979 and 1992, 145 patients with their first isolated locoregional recurrence of breast cancer following modified radical mastectomy without evidence of distant metastases were treated at the Department of Radiation Oncology of the University of Wurzburg. Thirty-nine percent of patients (n = 67) had had postmastectomy radiotherapy, representing 7% of patients who had received routine postmastectomy irradiation at our institution. Systemic adjuvant hormonal therapy had been applied in 24% and systemic chemotherapy in 19% of patients. Several combinations were used. Treatment of recurrences consisted of surgical tumor excision in 74%, megavoltage irradiation in 83%, additional hormonal therapy in 41%, and chemotherapy in 12% of patients, employing different combinations. Local control in the recurrent site was achieved in 86%. Median follow-up for patients alive at the time of analysis was 8.9 years after recurrence. We tested different prognostic factors, including prior treatment and treatment of recurrence, for their influence on postrecurrence survival, using univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Eighty-two of the 145 patients (57%) developed distant metastases within the follow-up period. Metastases-free rate was 42% at 2 years and 36% at 10 years following recurrence. With development of distant metastases, the survival rate deteriorated. Recurrences appeared within the first 2 years from primary surgery in 56% of patients, and in 89% within 5 years. Overall, 2-year and 5-year survival rates following local-regional recurrence were 67% and 42%, respectively. Univariate analysis revealed statistically significant worsening of survival rates for pT3 + 4 primary tumors, primary axillary lymph node involvement, tumor grading 3 + 4, lymphatic vessel invasion, blood vessel invasion, tumor necrosis, negative estrogen (ER) and progesterone (PR) hormonal receptor status, postmastectomy chemotherapy and hormonal therapy, short time to recurrence (< 1 year), combined recurrences and supraclavicular site of recurrence, non-scar recurrence, size of the largest recurrent nodule > 5 cm, multiple recurrent nodules, no surgical excision of recurrence, small target volume of irradiation, chemotherapy for recurrence, and no local control within the recurrence site. The 2-year and 5-year survival rates ranged from 68% to 94%, and from 33% to 65%, respectively, in the favorable subgroups compared to 2-year and 5-year survival rates ranging from 20% to 59% and 0% to 35%, respectively, in the unfavorable subgroups. Multivariate analysis showed that site of recurrence and number of recurrent nodules have the strongest influence on postrecurrence survival, but time to recurrence, age at time of recurrence, local control in recurrent site as well as primary pT and axillary status, and the presence of tumor necrosis in the primary tumor specimen showed additional independent influences on survival. Thus, we identified a highly favorable subgroup of patients with a single chest wall or axillary recurrent nodule (in a patient aged > 50 years), a disease-free interval of > or = 1 year, pT1-2N0 primary tumor, and without tumor necrosis, and whose recurrence is locally controlled. This group (12 patients) had 5- and 10-year survival rates of 100% and 69%, respectively. CONCLUSION: We conclude that locoregional recurrence of breast cancer following mastectomy is not always a sign of systemic disease. Our data support previous findings, that subgroups with favorable prognosis exist and they still have a chance for cure, demanding comprehensive local treatment. (ABSTR

Analysis of Variance↗