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PubMed1988

Regional differences in decline of mortality from selected conditions: The Netherlands, 1969-1984.

In The Netherlands, as in many other industrialized countries, recent mortality developments have been characterized by rapid declines for a number of important causes of death. The results of an analysis of regional variation in mortality decline within The Netherlands are reported, covering the period 1969-1984. The causes of death included in this analysis are Perinatal mortality, Cerebrovascular disease, a more global 'Amenable' selection (formed by aggregating a number of causes of death considered to be amenable to medical intervention), Cancer of the stomach, Ischaemic heart disease and Traffic accidents. For Perinatal mortality, Cerebrovascular disease, the 'Amenable' selection, and Ischaemic heart disease, as well as for Total mortality, declines have not been geographically homogeneous. Perinatal mortality had a tendency to decline faster in regions where starting levels were higher, suggesting a certain convergence. For Cerebrovascular disease and the 'Amenable' selection, but especially for Ischaemic heart disease, the reverse was true. A simple correlation analysis shows that for Perinatal mortality, as well as for the 'Amenable' selection, mortality declined faster in less urbanized, more peripherally located, lower income areas. There is no association with the presence of a university hospital. This pattern suggests that faster mortality decline for these conditions is due to factors other than faster diffusion of new medical technologies. For Ischaemic heart disease, mortality declined faster in more urbanized, more centrally located, higher income areas. Although this pattern is what one would expect as a result of regional differences in the diffusion of new medical technologies, it may also be due to differences in the diffusion of new lifestyles.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Cause of Death↗
PubMed1988

Post-1950 mortality trends and medical care: gains in life expectancy due to declines in mortality from conditions amenable to medical intervention in The Netherlands.

In order to assess the impact of medical care innovations on post-1950 mortality in The Netherlands, we analysed trends in mortality from a selection of conditions suggested by Rutstein et al.'s lists of "unnecessary untimely mortality". This selection covers 11 types of innovation, and includes 35 conditions which have become amenable to medical care. Loglinear regression analysis shows that for most of these conditions mortality declined during each of two subperiods (1950-1968; 1969-1984). Mortality decline accelerated in the second subperiod for many conditions. Reductions in mortality from these conditions between 1950/54 and 1980/84 added 2.96 and 3.95 years to life expectancy at birth of Dutch males and Dutch females respectively. A priori evidence indicates that these mortality reductions are due to some extent to 'spontaneous' incidence declines. Although the exact contribution of medical care innovations to these changes in mortality thus cannot be determined, the impact of medical care on post-1950 mortality in The Netherlands could well have been substantial.

Cause of Death↗
PubMed2004

Declining AIDS mortality in Amsterdam: contributions of declining HIV incidence and effective therapy.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to evaluate the impact of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on AIDS mortality, taking into account earlier HIV incidence patterns. METHODS: Using AIDS Surveillance data (1982-2000), we calculated the observed course of the AIDS epidemic among homosexual men in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. We used the HIV incidence patterns (1980-2000) among homosexual men participating in the hepatitis B vaccine trial and the Amsterdam Cohort Study and those attending the Amsterdam sexual transmitted infections clinic, together with the time from seroconversion to AIDS and death in the pre-HAART era, to estimate the natural course of the AIDS epidemic if HAART had not been introduced. RESULTS: The estimated course of the AIDS epidemic without the benefits of HAART showed a decline in AIDS mortality, but this estimated decline was not as strong as the observed decline. Taking into account the HIV incidence over calendar time, we estimated that 331 deaths among homosexual men were prevented by HAART between 1996 and 2000 in Amsterdam. CONCLUSION: The decline in AIDS mortality was the result of both HAART and a decline in the HIV incidence in the early 1980s. When evaluating the effect of HAART on mortality, changes in HIV incidence must also be considered.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed2003

Improvements in treatment of coronary heart disease and cessation of stroke mortality rate decline.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Many countries observed rapidly declining stroke mortality rates during 1970-1990, followed by a slowing or a cessation of this decline. This slowing was seen for both sexes and all ages. Here we test the hypothesis that improvements in coronary heart disease (CHD) survival can explain this slowing through an increase in the number of CHD survivors at an increased risk for stroke. METHODS: We created multistate life-table models based on the survival experience of 46 years of follow-up of the Framingham Heart Study cohort. Improvements in survival after CHD were modeled by decreasing mortality rates for those with CHD. We analyzed whether improved CHD survival could result in a >3% increase in annual stroke mortality rates, which would be enough to eliminate the previously observed decline. RESULTS: CHD survival improvements led to an increase in the number of stroke deaths but also a concomitant increase in the total population size. Under no circumstances was there an annual increase in stroke mortality rates approaching 3% for both sexes and for younger and older age groups. CONCLUSIONS: The hypothesis that increases in the numbers of people with CHD, as a consequence of improvements in CHD survival, explain the observed slowing of the stroke mortality rate decline must be rejected. The true explanation is also likely to be a factor that changed markedly around 1990, but with more direct effects on stroke mortality.

Adult↗
PubMed1994

Declining hospital mortality in acute myocardial infarction.

Beta-blockers, nitrates, aspirin and thrombolytic drugs have each separately been shown to reduce mortality in acute myocardial infarction, but the effect of these treatments combined during routine coronary care has not been assessed. The coronary care unit at Ostra Hospital services a stable community of 250,000 inhabitants. Since 1984 all patients have been entered into a computerized database. In addition, information on age, sex, discharge diagnosis and hospital outcome is also available for patients admitted between 1979 and 1983. In 1984, routine treatment with intravenous beta-blockers was introduced, to be followed in 1986 by intravenous nitroglycerin and in 1988 by aspirin in all patients without contraindications. Since 1988, intravenous thrombolytic treatment has been also given routinely to all patients with ST-elevation and chest pain < 6 h. Despite a similar number of patients and an increasing median age, the in-hospital mortality has declined from 18.5% in 1979 to 11.8% in 1990 (P < 0.01). It is concluded that mortality from acute myocardial infarction has declined by almost 40% since 1979. This reduction cannot be explained by a single major therapeutic intervention but may be attributed to the combined use of multi-lead monitoring, early use of beta-blockers, nitroglycerin, aspirin and thrombolytic agents.

Adrenergic beta-Antagonists↗
PubMed1985

Declining fertility in England and Wales as a major cause of the twentieth century decline in mortality. The role of changing family size and age structure in infectious disease mortality in infancy.

The decline in infectious disease mortality in England and Wales beginning about 1880 has been attributed to improved nutrition, hygiene, and sanitation. Such an explanation does not adequately explain the lack of improvement in infant and diarrheal disease mortality before 1900 nor the abrupt subsequent decline. A hypothesis was proposed that the decline in fertility rate was a major cause of the decline in infant mortality by raising the median age at infection. The hypothesis could only be tested indirectly. A review of morbidity data demonstrates the importance of family characteristics on the median age at infection for measles, pertussis, and common respiratory illness. The association of parity with infectious disease mortality supports the hypothesis. A method was developed for estimating the change in birth order distribution resulting from declining fertility. Using 1949-1950 data, it was shown that declining fertility could account for at least a 24% decline in postneonatal mortality due to bronchitis and pneumonia. Age-specific measles mortality rates are consistent, with an increase in age at infection. Declining fertility appears to have played a major role in the decline in infectious disease mortality in England and Wales by increasing the median age at infection.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1989

Geographic variation in the onset of decline of male ischemic heart disease mortality in The Netherlands.

We studied variation in the year of onset of ischemic heart disease mortality decline among regions (n = 39) in the Netherlands. Using loglinear regression methods, a quadratic regression model was fitted to the observed numbers of male deaths in each region in the period 1950-84, controlling for changes in age-structure of populations. The quadratic regression model proved inadequate to describe the mortality experience of females. For the country as a whole, the estimated year of onset of male ischemic heart disease mortality decline is 1973.9. The difference between the earliest and the latest region is almost nine years (1970.0 and 1978.9, respectively). An early onset of decline (less than or equal to 1972) is only found in the urbanized, western part of the country. A later (greater than or equal to 1975) onset of decline is characteristically found in more peripheral regions in the South-West and South-East, as well as in the North. Exploratory correlation and regression analyses show that both average income and percent of population living in larger cities have independent, negative associations with the year of onset of male ischemic heart disease mortality decline. We argue that regional variation in the timing of lifestyle changes is a more plausible explanation of these observations than regional variation in the timing of medical care improvements.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1983

[Trends of phase-specific life expectancy in postwar Taiwan].

The decline in mortality in Taiwan since World War II is analyzed using life tables. "Special features of the research include (1) a phase-of-life-specific, rather than an age-specific, analysis of mortality, and (2) the use of measures based upon person-years of life in phase intervals, rather than survival rates or expectation of life at given ages. The empirical results suggest that the mortality decline can be described as a two-stage process: an initial stage of substantial improvement in life expectancy between 1950 and 1965, and a final stage of slow gain in life expectancy since 1965." Age and sex variations in mortality and differing rates of mortality decline are noted. Implications of increased longevity for economic and social programs are also considered. (summary in ENG)

Age Factors↗
PubMed2004

Racial differences in leading causes of infant death in the United States.

We used linked birth/infant death records of over 23 million singletons belonging to six birth cohorts (1989-91 and 1995-97) and examined changes in race differentials in the overall and cause-specific infant mortality risks across time in the United States. Results show that infant mortality declined for all races during the time period, with disproportionately greater declines among non-Hispanic American Indians (AIs). Among the leading causes of infant death, declines in mortality from sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS), respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) and congenital anomalies contributed the most to the overall decline in infant mortality in the 1995-97 cohorts, compared with the 1989-91 cohorts. Disproportionately greater reductions in mortality resulting from SIDS and congenital anomalies led to more rapid mortality declines among non-Hispanic AIs than for other races. There are disturbing findings that infants of almost every race experienced increases in mortality from newborn affected by maternal complications of pregnancy (maternal complications) and that none of the race groups experienced a significant decline in mortality from disorders resulting from short gestation/low birthweight.

Cause of Death↗
PubMed1990

Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis of stroke mortality in the U.S., 1951-1986: declining stroke mortality is the natural consequence of competitive deterministic mortality dynamics.

Age-adjusted mortality rates for stroke in the United States from 1951 to 1986 were subjected to longitudinal Gompertzian analysis. Age-adjusted stroke mortality rate distributions were determined by a variable environmental factor and a constant Gompertz slope. Compared to 1951 values, the environmental factor in 1986 had declined (improved) 49.8% for men and 59.1% for women. This was associated with a 51.9% and 31.4% decrease in the annual crude mortality rate from stroke for men and women respectively. However, the Gompertz slope remained remarkably constant from 1951 to 1986; 0.050152 for men and 0.048341 for women. The constant Gompertz slope for age-adjusted mortality rate distributions for stroke is in sharp contrast to the increasing Gompertz slope which occurs with an improving environment in 'degenerative' diseases and aging in general. These findings suggest that the recent dramatic decline in overall stroke mortality is the natural consequence of competitive deterministic mortality dynamics. As the overall environment becomes more conducive to human survival, Gompertzian diseases with converging mortality rate distributions must increase as causes of human mortality at the expense of diseases with constant Gompertz slopes.

Adult↗
PubMed1989

The contribution of medical care to inequalities in health: differences between socio-economic groups in decline of mortality from conditions amenable to medical intervention.

In order to investigate the contribution of medical care to the widening of mortality differences between socio-economic groups, we studied differences in the decline of mortality from conditions which have become amenable to medical intervention. For England and Wales, data on occupational mortality from the Decennial Supplements of the years around 1931, 1961 and 1981 were used. For the Netherlands, a more indirect approach had to be followed, using data on geographical variation in mortality for the years around 1952, 1962, 1972 and 1982. In England and Wales during the period 1931-1961 mortality from conditions which became amenable to medical intervention generally declined more in relative terms among the higher occupational classes, both for men and for married women. During the period 1961-1981 the picture was less consistent, although for about half of the conditions mortality declines were again larger in the higher occupational classes. The findings for the Netherlands suggest a similar pattern of differential mortality decline for a small number of conditions only. Possible explanations for these findings are discussed. We conclude that: the widening of the mortality differences between socio-economic groups in England and Wales was partly due to differences in decline of mortality from conditions amenable to medical intervention; the same may be true to some extent for the Netherlands, but the evidence is not striking; differences in decline of mortality from 'amenable' conditions were probably due, at least in part and at least up to 1960, to differences between socio-economic groups in accessibility, utilization or quality of medical care.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Delivery of Health Care↗
PubMed2005

Explaining US racial/ethnic disparities in health declines and mortality in late middle age: the roles of socioeconomic status, health behaviors, and health insurance.

Pervasive health disparities continue to exist among racial/ethnic minority groups, but the factors related to these disparities have not been fully elucidated. We undertook this prospective cohort study to determine the independent contributions of socioeconomic status (SES), health behaviors, and health insurance in explaining racial/ethnic disparities in mortality and health declines. Our study period was 1992-1998, and our study population consists of a US nationally representative sample of 6286 non-Hispanic whites (W), 1391 non-Hispanic blacks (B), 405 Hispanics interviewed in English (H/E), and 318 Hispanics interviewed in Spanish (H/S), ages 51-61 in 1992 in the Health and Retirement Study. The main outcome measures were death; major decline in self-reported overall health (SROH); and combined outcome of death or major decline in SROH. Crude mortality rates over the 6-year study period for W, B, H/E and H/S were 5.8%, 10.6%, 5.8%, and 4.4%, respectively. Rates of major decline in SROH were 14.6%, 23.2%, 22.1% and 39.4%, for W, B, H/E and H/S, respectively. Higher mortality rates for B versus W were mostly explained by worse baseline health. For major decline in SROH, education, income, and net worth independently explained more of the disparities for all three minority groups as compared to health behaviors and insurance, reducing the effect for B and H/E to non-significance, while leaving a significant elevated odds ratio for H/S. Without addressing the as-yet undetermined and pernicious effects of lower SES, public health initiatives that promote changing individual health behaviors and increasing rates of insurance coverage among blacks and Hispanics will not eliminate racial/ethnic health disparities.

Black or African American↗
PubMed1986

Does treatment of hypertension explain the decline in mortality from stroke?

Mortality from stroke has been declining in New Zealand since 1950 and at an accelerating rate since the early 1970s. Hypertension is the single most important risk factor for stroke. The temporal association between the recent decline in mortality and an increase in the proportion of patients with hypertension detected and treated led to the assumption of a cause and effect relation. Data from studies of the prevalence of blood pressure carried out in the community and from therapeutic trials of the treatment of hypertension were used to estimate the proportion of the decline in mortality from stroke that could be accounted for by increased treatment of hypertension during 1973-82 in New Zealand. Treatment of hypertension was estimated to account for roughly 10% of the observed reduction in deaths from stroke. Greater understanding of the reasons for the decline in mortality from stroke is required.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

Commentary: economic growth is the basis of mortality rate decline in the 20th century--experience of the United States 1901-2000.

BACKGROUND: The hypothesis that economic growth has been the principal source of mortality decline during the 20th century in the United States is investigated. This hypothesis is consistent with the large epidemiological literature showing socioeconomic status to be inversely related to health status and unemployment associated with elevated morbidity and mortality rates. Despite evidence over many years showing economic growth, over at least a decade, to be fundamental to mortality rate declines and unemployment rates showing lagged, cumulative effects on mortality rate increases, a recent paper argues that the impact of economic growth is to increase the mortality rate. METHODS: This study utilizes age-adjusted mortality rates over 1901-2000 in the United States as the outcome measure, while independent variables include real GDP per capita in purchasing power parity, the unemployment rate, and the employment to population ratio. A basic interaction model is constructed whereby (i) real GDP per capita, (ii) the unemployment rate, and (iii) the multiplicative interaction between real GDP per capita and the unemployment rate are analysed in relation to age-adjusted mortality rates. The Shiller procedure is used to estimate the distributed lag relations over at least a decade for variables (i), (ii), and (iii). The error correction method is used to examine these relations for both levels and annual changes in independent and dependent variables. RESULTS: While GDP per capita, over the medium- to long-term, is strongly inversely related to mortality rates during 1901-2000, in the very short term-i.e. within the first few months-rapid economic growth is occasionally associated with increased mortality rates estimated in annual changes. With respect to the unemployment rate, the first year (without lag) will frequently be associated with a decrease in mortality, but thereafter, and at least for the following decade, the effect is to increase the mortality rate. Thus, the net effect of increased unemployment is a substantial increase in mortality. This is also reflected in the entirely negative relation between the cumulative effects of the employment to population ratio and mortality rates over a decade. CONCLUSIONS: Economic growth, cumulatively over at least a decade, has been the central factor in mortality rate decline in the US over the 20th century. The volatility of rapid economic growth as it departs from its major trend, has a very short-term effect (within a year) to increase mortality-partly owing to adaptation to new technology and the adjustment of the formerly unemployed to new jobs, social status, and organizational structures.

Economics↗
PubMed1991

The decline of mortality due to stroke: a competitive and deterministic perspective.

Although stroke mortality has been declining since the first part of this century, the rate of decline increased sharply during the early 1970s. The basis for the fall in stroke mortality is often attributed to effective management of risk factors, particularly hypertension. However, some investigators have questioned whether risk factor reduction alone can adequately account for the magnitude of the recent decline in stroke mortality. When viewed from the perspective of competitive and deterministic mortality dynamics, the major force decreasing stroke mortality is the decreasing deterministic competitiveness of stroke and the increasing deterministic competitiveness of various malignant neoplasms and degenerative diseases as causes of mortality. These reciprocal trends are a natural consequence of the competitive deterministic mortality dynamics which describe these diseases in an environment that is becoming more conducive to human survival. The competitive nature of human mortality makes drawing etiopathogenic conclusions based upon single disease mortality data hazardous.

Aged↗
PubMed1990

Changes in risk factors and the decline in mortality from cardiovascular disease. The Framingham Heart Study.

A decline in mortality from cardiovascular disease over the past 30 years has been well documented, but the reasons for the decline remain unclear. We analyzed the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and death from cardiovascular disease in three groups of men who were 50 to 59 years old at base line in 1950, 1960, and 1970 (the 1950, 1960, and 1970 cohorts) in order to determine the contribution of secular trends in the incidence of cardiovascular disease, risk factors, and medical care to the decline in mortality. The 10-year cumulative mortality from cardiovascular disease in the 1970 cohort was 43 percent less than that in the 1950 cohort and 37 percent less than that in the 1960 cohort (P = 0.04 by log-rank test). Among the men who were free of cardiovascular disease at base line, the 10-year cumulative incidence of cardiovascular disease declined approximately 19 percent, from 190 per 1000 in the 1950 cohort to 154 per 1000 in the 1970 cohort (0.10 less than P less than 0.20 by chi-square test), whereas the 10-year rate of death from cardiovascular disease declined 60 percent (relative risk for the 1950 cohort as compared with the 1970 cohort, 2.53; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.22 to 5.97). Significant improvements were found in risk factors for cardiovascular disease among the men initially free of cardiovascular disease in the 1970 cohort as compared with those in the 1950 cohort, including a lower serum cholesterol level (mean +/- SD, 5.72 +/- 0.98 mmol per liter [221 +/- 38 mg per deciliter], as compared with 5.90 +/- 1.03 mmol per liter [228 +/- 40 mg per deciliter]) and a lower systolic blood pressure (mean +/- SD, 135 +/- 19 mm Hg, as compared with 139 +/- 25 mm Hg), better management of hypertension (22 percent vs. 0 percent were receiving antihypertensive medication), and reduced cigarette smoking (34 percent vs. 56 percent). We propose that these improvements may have had more pronounced effects on mortality from cardiovascular disease than on the incidence of cardiovascular disease in this population. Our data suggest that the improvement in cardiovascular risk factors in the 1970 cohort may have been an important contributor to the 60 percent decline in mortality in that group as compared with the 1950 cohort, although a decline in the incidence of cardiovascular disease and improved medical interventions may also have contributed to the decline in mortality.

Blood Pressure↗
PubMed1997

The unique decline of mortality in revolutionary France.

This article seeks to draw historians' attention to a neglected reconstruction of the French population and its mortality rates developed by the Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques in the 1970s. The reconstruction shows a sharp decline in French mortality rates, beginning in the 1790s and continuing through the 1820s. This conflicts with recent historiography stressing the negative effects of the Revolution. This article contends that the reconstruction is plausible and that the French mortality decline was unique in Europe in this period. In turn, this suggests that the Revolution had a much more favorable impact than many historians would have us believe.

France↗