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Although individual traits related to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) have been investigated through large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWASs), the shared genetic susceptibility across these traits remains unclear. We therefore conducted a multivariate GWAS of key MASLD-related traits to elucidate their common genetic architecture. We applied genomic structural equation modeling to model a latent genetic factor (MASLD-F) underlying genetically correlated MASLD-related traits, leveraging their GWAS-derived genetic correlations. We then performed functional annotations, including fine-mapping, transcriptome-wide association study, and cell- and tissue-type-specific enrichment analyses, and conducted Mendelian randomization analyses to identify modifiable risk factors. Our multivariate MASLD-F GWAS identified 50 independent variants across 48 genomic loci. Transcriptomic imputation identified several MASLD-F-associated genes, including ARNTL, NPC1, BTBD10, VDAC2, TSKU, SFMBT1, and ABHD17C. We observed significant enrichment of MASLD-F-related genetic signals predominantly in brain tissues, pancreatic islets, and the adrenal gland. Additionally, six modifiable risk factors and four modifiable protective factors for MASLD-F were identified. These findings reveal a complex shared genetic architecture underlying MASLD components, thereby expanding our understanding of disease pathogenesis and providing novel insights for precision medicine and public health interventions.
While perfusion culture for Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells offers advantages such as continuous operation and flexibility, it suffers from product loss through cell bleeding and difficulties in reaching high productivity due to sustained rapid cell growth. Growth inhibitory strategies are widely used to enhance productivity in fed‑batch processes; however, their practical implementation and comparative effectiveness in perfusion processes remain insufficiently explored. Meanwhile, process development often relies on costly trial‑and‑error approaches. Here, we systematically compared three growth inhibitory strategies in perfusion culture-low cell‑specific perfusion rate (CSPR), sodium butyrate, and mild hypothermia-with respect to cell growth, metabolism, productivity, and product quality. Genome‑scale metabolic flux sampling analysis revealed that low‑CSPR and sodium butyrate induce a convergent up‑regulation of energy metabolism, correlating with greater gains in specific productivity (qp). Building on this insight, we developed a growth‑kinetic model for the combined low‑CSPR + butyrate strategy, incorporating parameter uncertainty. This model‑guided framework enabled the rational design of two distinct high‑productivity perfusion processes: a sustained mode that achieved robust long‑term stability alongside substantial productivity gains, and a high‑intensity mode that pushed qp and daily volumetric titer to their maxima, with increases of up to 108.94% and 190.36%, respectively, in a model CHO cell line with a moderate baseline productivity. Our study provides a proof‑of‑concept framework for perfusion intensification, from strategy selection to rational process design.
OBJECTIVE: To systematically review and evaluate published risk prediction models for perioperative blood transfusion in patients undergoing total hip or knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA). METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, and Embase from inception to May 31, 2025. Two researchers independently screened the literature, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias and applicability using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values were pooled via a meta-analysis using Stata 18.0. RESULTS: d Fourteen studies containing 36 prediction models were included. The incidence of blood transfusion among THA/TKA patients ranged from 3.2% to 30.8%. Preoperative hemoglobin (Hb) level, tranexamic acid (TXA) use, operative duration, intraoperative blood loss, and age were the most frequently incorporated predictors. Model sensitivity ranged from 58% to 94.5%, and specificity ranged from 71.3% to 94%. Meta-analysis showed that the pooled AUC value of the 13 validated models was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.85-0.90), suggesting good discriminatory performance. All models were rated as having a high risk of bias. The applicability of four studies was rated as unclear. CONCLUSION: Although the included studies demonstrated promising discriminative ability of prediction models for blood transfusion in THA/TKA, all were assessed as having a high risk of bias using the PROBAST tool. Therefore, future research should prioritize the development of models with larger sample sizes, rigorous study designs, and multicenter external validation.
Reliable intracellular quantification is essential for characterizing the target-site disposition and exposure-response relationships of bioactive natural products. In this study, an ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) method was developed and validated for the simultaneous determination of periplocin and four related cardiac glycoside metabolites in H9c2 cell lysates. Acceptable linearity, precision, recovery, and stability were achieved for intracellular quantification. Cells were treated with each compound at 50 μM, and intracellular concentrations and cell viability were monitored over 48 h. In hypoxia/reoxygenation (H/R) -injured cells, the time to maximum intracellular concentration was shortened for all five compounds, indicating altered cellular disposition under injury conditions. Cell viability was improved by all compounds during the observation period. Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) integration was performed using a sigmoid Emax model, and acceptable model fits were obtained, with Akaike information criterion (AIC) values ranging from 79.22 to 130.46. Low apparent EC50 values were estimated under this single-dose design, whereas the estimated Ke0 values suggested delayed equilibration with the effect compartment. These findings indicate that sustained cytoprotective responses can be produced by periplocin and related metabolic markers in injured cardiomyocytes. This intracellular bioanalytical strategy provides a quantitative approach for linking cellular exposure to pharmacodynamic response and may support further evaluation of periplocin-related cardiac glycosides.
INTRODUCTION: Lactational mastitis is common in lactating women, with Staphylococcus aureus as the most commonly isolated agent associated with infectious lactational mastitis. Currently, there are no evidence-based guidelines for antimicrobial treatment due to barriers in obtaining pharmacokinetic data from lactating women. To overcome this barrier, a suitable large animal model is needed. Goats are an ideal translational model for human mastitis due to their anatomical and physiological similarity to humans. The objective of this pilot study was to assess if goats would develop clinical mastitis following intramammary inoculation with a clinical human isolate of S. aureus with the goal of establishing an alternative in vivo model for future research. The hypothesis was that the infected mammary gland half would show similar clinical signs to women with mastitis and demonstrate a similar local immune response when compared to the control mammary gland half. METHODS: One half of the mammary gland of two healthy lactating does was inoculated with a clinical human isolate of S. aureus. The other half of the mammary gland was sham inoculated with sterile buffered saline. Physical examinations, mammary gland assessments, and sterile milk samples were collected every 12 hours post inoculation. At 96 hours post inoculation, the goats were euthanized, and the mammary glands were examined for pathological changes. RESULTS: Goats did not develop systemic signs of disease following inoculation. Focal infected mammary gland changes included warmth, swelling, redness, discoloration, and reduced milk production; the other mammary gland half remained normal throughout the study period. S. aureus was enumerated from only the infected mammary gland half. The microscopic findings of the infected half showed neutrophilic inflammation and cell necrosis consistent with acute mastitis. DISCUSSION: This pilot study demonstrated lactating does can develop clinical signs like those observed in women. Goats have the potential to be a promising animal model to study infectious lactational mastitis.
BACKGROUND: Accurately distinguishing malignant pleural effusion (MPE) from non-malignant pleural effusion is clinically important, but the generalisability and methodological quality of machine-learning (ML) models remain uncertain. METHODS: We searched eight databases to 23 April 2026. Diagnostic performance was pooled using random-effects and Reitsma bivariate models, and study quality was assessed using PROBAST+AI. RESULTS: Forty-two studies were included; 17 contributed to the AUC meta-analysis and 14 to the bivariate analysis. The pooled AUC was 0.90 (95 % CI 0.85-0.94; 95 % prediction interval 0.62-0.98), with sensitivity of 0.80 (95 % CI 0.77-0.83) and specificity of 0.87 (95 % CI 0.79-0.92). Only nine studies reported external, temporal or independent validation. Externally validated studies had a lower pooled AUC than studies without external validation (0.83 vs 0.92), with lower specificity observed in the two externally validated studies contributing sensitivity and specificity data. All 42 development assessments had high overall quality concerns, and all 42 model evaluations were judged at high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: ML models showed good apparent accuracy for distinguishing MPE from non-MPE, but the evidence was limited by substantial heterogeneity, high risk of bias and scarce external validation. The pooled estimates reflect the average performance of different selected models rather than the expected accuracy of a single clinical test. ML models should be regarded as adjuncts to existing diagnostic pathways until they are confirmed by rigorous multicentre prospective external validation and clinical-impact studies.
BACKGROUND: Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a multifactorial neurodevelopmental condition in which pharmacological and microbiota-targeted interventions are emerging as promising therapeutic avenues. Animal models are the main tool to investigate etiology, molecular mechanisms and screening for pharmacological therapies. Methodological differences, outcome measure variability, incomplete reporting, biological confounders, and overgeneralization of the results made evaluating innovative pharmacological agents challenging. These limitations in the field highlight a need for systematic and standardized research to reliably assess and translate pharmacological interventions from ASD animal models to human clinical relevance. SUBJECTS: This systematic review synthesized efficacy evidence for pharmacological and microbiota-based therapies across established ASD animal models. RESULTS: We identified 52 recent (2010-2025) studies that reported key ASD behavioral outcomes after pharmacological or microbiota-focused treatments. Interventions were grouped into therapeutic classes - including oxytocinergic agents, E/I balance therapeutic targets, metabolic drugs, cannabinoids, purine-based interventions and emerging targets - alongside microbiota-directed strategies such as probiotics, prebiotics, and fecal microbiota transplantation. By integrating effect directions and robustness across models, we identified most potential drug candidates, evaluated the efficacy of novel strategies, and recognized critical translational gaps. The reviewed studies demonstrate that ASD-like behavioral deficits in preclinical models can be modulated through interventions targeting diverse biological systems, including neurotransmission, neuroinflammation, metabolism, and the gut-brain axis. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the multifactorial nature of ASD pathophysiology which arises from a network of interacting systemic processes rather than a single molecular defect. It could explain the limited success of traditionally narrowly targeted interventions and suggest a paradigm shift into a more systemic approach.
Atropine is an emerging therapy for myopia, yet the optimal concentration for prescription remains uncertain. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials, and ClinicalTrials.gov registry platforms. We included the randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that compared any dose of atropine against a placebo in myopic children. Among 3566 studies assessed, we identified 33 eligible RCTs involving 6301 children aged 4-18 years, with 10 different concentrations and a mean follow-up time of 19.5 ± 12.3 months. A nonlinear relationship was observed between atropine dosage and treatment efficacy (P < 0.001). Compared to placebo groups, the mean differences in reducing annual spherical equivalent refraction progression for atropine concentrations of 0.01%, 0.02%, 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.05% were 0.21 diopters (D) (95% CI, 0.13-0.28), 0.35 D (95% CI, 0.23-0.46), 0.42 D (95% CI, 0.28-0.56), 0.45 D (95% CI, 0.30-0.60), and 0.46 D (95% CI, 0.32-0.61) respectively For higher concentrations, the estimates were 0.49 D (95% CI, 0.34-0.63) for 0.1% and 0.99 D (95% CI, 0.66-1.31) for 1%, although these were based on fewer and smaller trials. Higher doses of atropine were associated with decreased amplitude of accommodation (P = 0.02), increased pupil diameters (P = 0.01) and a higher frequency of photophobia (P = 0.02). Our findings suggest that the increase in treatment efficacy with higher concentrations may plateau beyond a certain range, and that the current practice of increasing atropine concentrations for children who show inadequate responses to lower doses should be confined to a specific concentration range. This analysis is limited by the number, design heterogeneity, and sample sizes of available trials for higher concentrations, and by the frequent lack of pre-intervention refractive history in included studies. Therefore, estimates-particularly for doses exceeding 0.1%-should be interpreted with caution.
BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common inflammatory neurodegenerative disease in which axonal injury, neuronal death, and demyelination occur. Treatment for MS relapses remains limited, which alleviates acute loss of function but has no impact on long-term disability. This study aimed to perform a systematic review of the effects of nimodipine on experimental demyelination models, including experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) and Cuprizone models in rodents. METHODS: This study was conducted following the PRISMA statement. A systematic search was performed in PubMed, Scopus, the Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar. The primary outcome was EAE clinical disease severity (peak clinical score and/or cumulative disease burden). Secondary outcomes included relapse activity (when reported), histological myelin outcomes, oligodendrocyte lineage markers, neuroaxonal injury markers, and inflammatory readouts. Risk of bias was assessed using the SYRCLE tool. RESULTS: Out of 4660 results, 5 studies were included in the systematic review (four EAE studies and one cuprizone model). Nimodipine was administered using heterogeneous regimens (oral, intravenous, intraperitoneal, subcutaneous, or osmotic pump delivery; 1-30 mg/kg/day). The included studies reported the variable effects of nimodipine on relapse-related outcomes, myelination, inflammatory processes, and neuroprotection in the EAE model of MS. Across EAE studies, nimodipine generally reduced clinical disease severity or cumulative burden, although relapse-related outcomes were inconsistent. CONCLUSIONS: Preclinical evidence suggests that nimodipine may attenuate disease severity and demyelination and may promote repair-related processes in rodent models relevant to MS. However, to evaluate the clinical applicability of nimodipine in MS patients, well-powered, transparently reported preclinical replication and early-phase clinical studies are required before clinical translation.
Listeria monocytogenes is a major foodborne pathogen; its ruminant isolates display zoonotic characteristics, causing similar clinical signs in humans, including abortion and encephalitis. However, data on whole genome sequencing and pathogenicity of ruminant L. monocytogenes isolates remain sparse. This study aimed to analyze the genotypic characteristics of L. monocytogenes isolates from ruminants with listeriosis. Furthermore, we assessed the in vivo pathogenicity of four ruminant L. monocytogenes isolates, characterized via whole-genome sequencing-based genetic clustering, in orogastrically inoculated mice. The isolate LM18 (serotype 1/2b, ST224, SL6178) had the lowest lethal dose compared to the other three isolates including previous hypervirulence type (serotype 4b, ST1, SL1) and caused secondary bacteremia in lungs, with sustained bacterial loads in the spleen and liver. Genomic (listeria pathogenicity island -1 and -3) and virulence gene (actA and llsX) mutation analyses associated with virulence suggested from well-recognized studies could not elucidate the virulence of the isolates. SSI-1, which only exists in the isolate LM18 (serotype 1/2b, ST224, SL6178), may help L. monocytogenes survive in the gastrointestinal environment, thereby affecting its virulence. Further research should investigate the role of SSI-1 in the pathogenicity of L. monocytogenes. Moreover, additional studies utilizing larger datasets of ruminant isolates are required to validate our genotypic characterization and to obtain a comprehensive picture of further genotypic differences crucial for L. monocytogenes pathogenicity.
AIM: To provide evidence for selecting and developing reliable clinical assessment tools for hypoglycemia in diabetic kidney disease patients during haemodialysis. DESIGN: Review. METHODS: Systematic searches were performed in 9 Chinese and English databases to collect literature regarding the development of hypoglycemia risk prediction models in haemodialysis patients with diabetic kidney disease. Two reviewers independently performed literature screening, data extraction, risk-of-bias assessment, and applicability evaluation. The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool was used to assess the risk of bias and applicability of the included studies. Meta-analysis was conducted using R software. DATA SOURCES: CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, CBM, PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMbase, Web of Science, and CINAHL. The search period covered from the establishment date of each database to December 2025. RESULTS: Six studies, comprising six prediction models, were included. Two studies performed internal validation, and three conducted external validation. All models reported the area under the curve, ranging from 0.813 to 0.866, and calibration measures. Four studies were rated as having a high risk of bias, while all six demonstrated good overall applicability. The meta-analysis showed that the pooled AUC value of the six studies was 0.846 (95% CI: 0.823-0.867). CONCLUSION: Research on hypoglycemia risk prediction models in haemodialysis patients with diabetic kidney disease remains in the developmental stage. Although the included prediction models exhibited satisfactory apparent discriminatory ability and clinical applicability, most of the original studies suffered from a high risk of bias and lacked adequate validation. The true predictive performance and clinical application value of these models remain to be further verified. Accordingly, routine and unconditional clinical application is not recommended at this stage. Future studies should include more high-quality, multicenter external validation and develop models with high generalizability, favourable clinical applicability, and robust predictive performance to facilitate early identification of hypoglycemia risk in this population. IMPACT: This study systematically evaluated the hypoglycemia risk prediction models for diabetic kidney disease patients during haemodialysis, and the research on hypoglycemia risk prediction models for maintenance haemodialysis patients during dialysis is still in the development stage. This study provides a reference for clinical medical staff to select or develop hypoglycemia risk prediction and assessment tools for diabetic kidney disease patients during haemodialysis. REPORTING METHOD: This study was conducted in accordance with the relevant guidelines of the EQUATOR Network and followed the TRIPOD-SRMA Checklist. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: No patient or public contribution. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO: CRD420251243352.
IMPORTANCE: Cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6 (CDK4/6) inhibitors are standard therapy for hormone receptor-positive (HR+), HER2-negative breast cancer. By blocking the G1/S cell-cycle transition, these agents may impair renewal of the corneal epithelium. No controlled study has systematically evaluated corneal epithelial changes in patients receiving CDK4/6 inhibitors. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether CDK4/6 inhibitor-based therapy is associated with cornealepithelial alterations independent of aromatase inhibitor exposure and tear film dysfunction. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective comparative cross-sectional study at a tertiary ophthalmology center. A total of 132 women were enrolled: 45 receiving a CDK4/6 inhibitor plus an aromatase inhibitor (CDKAI group), 44 receiving aromatase inhibitor monotherapy (AI group), and 43 age-matched postmenopausal controls without systemic oncologic therapy. EXPOSURES: CDK4/6 inhibitor (ribociclib, palbociclib, or abemaciclib) combined with an aromatase inhibitor; aromatase inhibitor alone; or no systemic oncologic therapy. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Prevalence and severity of punctate epitheliopathy and vortex keratopathy, assessed by a masked ophthalmologist. Secondary outcomes included Schirmer I test, tear film break-up time, and Ocular Surface Disease Index (OSDI). RESULTS: PE was present in 44.4% of eyes in the CDKAI group vs 4.7% in the AI group and 2.3% in controls (χ² = 34.31; P < .001). All moderate (13.3%) and severe/complicated (8.9%) PE cases occurred exclusively in the CDKAI group. Vortex keratopathy was observed in 13.3% of CDKAI patients and in none of the other groups (P = .025). Schirmer values, tear film break-up time, and OSDI scores did not differ among groups (all P > .05). Within the CDKAI group, PE was not associated with treatment duration (P = .963) or tear film parameters. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this comparative study, CDK4/6 inhibitor-based therapy was associated with significantly higher prevalence and severity of PE and vortex keratopathy, independent of aromatase inhibitor exposure and in the absence of measurable tear film dysfunction. These findings suggest a direct cytostatic effect on the corneal epithelium. Symptom scores were low, although OSDI interpretation was limited by incomplete responses. Proactive corneal surface evaluation with fluorescein staining may be warranted during CDK4/6 inhibitor treatment.
Fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) holds therapeutic promise beyond recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection, but clinical outcomes remain unpredictable and donor-selection strategies remain limited, in part because the role of donor‒recipient metabolic interactions in shaping the post-FMT community remains poorly understood. Here, we leverage metagenome-scale metabolic modeling to quantify metabolic niche complementarity between donor and recipient microbiomes and predict post-FMT community composition. Using MICOM-derived metabolic models, we show that donor genomes whose metabolic flux profiles are more dissimilar from the recipient community colonize at significantly higher rates in a murine FMT model. In a human IBS trial, the same metric predicted post-FMT community composition via leave-one-out cross-validation and captured known disease-associated alterations in short-chain fatty acid, sulfur, and gas metabolism. We then performed 2,548 in silico FMT simulations between IBS-D/M patients and donors from the OpenBiome biobank to evaluate personalized donor screening, identifying super-donors characterized by high taxonomic diversity, broad metabolic niche coverage, and community interaction networks dominated by cross-feeding rather than competition. Together, these results support metabolic niche complementarity as a potential determinant of post-FMT community composition and provide a mechanistic basis for evaluating donor-recipient metabolic compatibility. This framework offers a scalable approach for generating testable hypotheses for personalized donor selection.
BACKGROUND: Oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) has been reported to cause vaccine-derived poliovirus and vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis, and the limited global supply of conventional IPV has led many countries to rely on fractional-dose IPV regimens alongside OPV. The current study aims to assess the sIPV safety and immunogenicity when given concurrently with or in a staggered manner with routine immunization. METHODS: A multi-country, multi-center, open-label, randomized controlled, extended phase III non-inferiority clinical trial was conducted with 1442 healthy infants aged 6-8 weeks from Bangladesh and Pakistan enrolled and randomized into four groups, i.e., co-administration group 1 (group C1), co-administration group 2 (group C2), staggered administration group 1 (group S1) and staggered administration group 2 (group S2). Antibody levels were determined using the collected sera for immunogenicity evaluation. The difference in seroconversion rates between the coadministration group and the staggered administration group is compared using the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel χ2 (CMH-χ2) test, stratified by study site. Non-inferiority is concluded if the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval (CI) for the rate difference (coadministration group minus staggered administration group) is greater than -10%. The trial was registered prior to patient enrollment at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05850364), and the protocol and statistical analysis plan are available at https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05850364. The trial is closed to new participants. FINDINGS: The post-vaccination seroconversion rates for PV I were 90.3% (306/339) in group C1 and 87.0% (261/300) in group S1, for PV II, 91.7% (311/339) in group C1 and 91.3% (274/300) in group S1 and for PV III, 86.4% (293/339) in group C1 and 92.3% (277/300) in group S1. Among adverse reactions (ARs) reported within 7 days of vaccination, the incidence was similarly high in both the co-administration and staggered vaccination groups (92.8% vs. 95.5%). INTERPRETATION: Our results demonstrated favorable safety and immunogenicity of co-administration of sIPV with other routine infant vaccines according to a 3-dose primary immunization schedule.
Soil pollution poses significant risks to ecosystems and human health, necessitating accurate source identification and apportionment to guide mitigation strategies. This systematic review evaluates the application of Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) and other receptor models in soil pollution studies, focusing on analytical procedures, tracer indicators, and environmental applications. This review aims to provide a comprehensive framework for conducting soil source apportionment studies, aiding policymakers in designing effective, region-specific environmental management strategies by compiling global trends and methodological insights. The study addresses sampling protocols, emphasizing representativeness and quality control. Data from 500 peer-reviewed publications highlight the dominance of research in China, Eastern Europe, and South Asia, with agricultural soils being the most frequently studied. Key findings reveal that traffic emissions (20.8 %) and industrial activities (19.4 %) are the primary global contributors to soil contamination, with regional variations such as coal combustion in cold climates and agricultural inputs in developing regions. Policy recommendations include stricter industrial regulations, sustainable agricultural practices, and targeted remediation efforts based on source-specific risks.
INTRODUCTION: Risk prediction models for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) offer potential for early identification and targeted prevention. External validation is crucial to assess model performance across diverse populations. Despite the availability of numerous GDM prediction models, limited evidence exists on their external validation frequency, methodological quality, and clinical applicability. This systematic review evaluated externally validated GDM prediction models, focusing on methodological rigor, reporting standards, and clinical relevance to inform future research and implementation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Databases including Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Emcare, and CINAHL were searched up to May 1, 2025. Studies reporting external validation of GDM risk prediction models were included. Two reviewers independently screened studies. Data were extracted using the CHARMS framework, and risk of bias and applicability were assessed using PROBAST+AI. The study protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO; CRD420251125758). RESULTS: Twenty-six studies validated 33 models, with validation sample sizes ranging from 50 to 75 161. Over half used the IADPSG criteria to define GDM. Discrimination metrics were commonly reported, but calibration, overall performance, and clinical utility were often lacking. Meta-analysis was feasible for only four models: Teede et al., Nanda et al., Naylor et al., and Van Leeuwen et al., each showing fair discrimination. The Teede et al. model was the most widely validated, with 11 external validations across six continents and a pooled AUC of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67-0.76). Despite fewer validations, the Nanda et al. model achieved the highest pooled discrimination (5 validations; pooled AUC 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74-0.80). The Naylor et al. and van Leeuwen et al. models also underwent meta-analysis, as sufficient external validation studies were available to support comparative performance assessment. Notably, 69.23% of studies had a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: While many models showed acceptable predictive performance, most validations were methodologically weak. Future studies should follow best-practice guidelines and promote scalable validation strategies, such as algorithm sharing, to enhance clinical utility.
PURPOSE: To identify risk factors associated with the development of high myopia following congenital cataract surgery and to establish a robust predictive model. DESIGN: Retrospective clinical cohort study. SUBJECTS: This retrospective study included 106 pediatric patients who underwent congenital cataract surgery with primary IOL implantation (mean follow-up 8.19 years). The model was externally validated in an independent cohort of 72 patients with a mean follow-up of 7.83 years. METHODS: Preoperative and postoperative ocular biometric parameters were collected. Risk factors for postoperative high myopia were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression, which served as the basis for model construction. The predictive performance of the model was rigorously evaluated for discrimination and calibration. Discriminative ability was quantified using Harrell's C-index and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Model calibration was assessed via calibration plots by comparing predicted probabilities with actual observed outcomes. Internal validation was performed using a bootstrapping method (500 iterations) to ensure model stability and adjust for potential overfitting. RESULTS: An initial postoperative refraction of <+0.75D, and a higher IOL Power to Axial length Ratio (IOL/AL ratio) were identified as significant risk factors for the development of postoperative high myopia. Shorter preoperative axial length was associated with a greater magnitude of postoperative myopic shift. The predictive model demonstrated robust performance, achieving a C-index of 0.711 (internal validation C-index: 0.713). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values for predicting high myopia at 5 and 10 years were 0.858 and 0.745, respectively. Furthermore, calibration curves demonstrated excellent agreement between the predicted and observed outcomes throughout the follow-up period. In external validation, the model achieved a C-index of 0.825, 5-year AUC of 0.833, and 10-year AUC of 0.713. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis established that initial postoperative refraction <+0.75D, and an elevated IOL/AL ratio are key determinants of high myopia risk following surgery. Shorter preoperative axial length was associated with a greater magnitude of postoperative myopic shift. This predictive framework provides clinicians with a practical tool to optimize preoperative IOL selection and identify high-risk infants who require vigilant myopia prevention and balanced amblyopia management.