Dealers fear drastic action now unavoidable to brake inflation.
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This study documents the increases in real inputs (e.g., labor and equipment) employed in Ontario's hospital sector between 1968 and 1981--a period of universal government-financed hospital insurance and a government regulatory strategy involving global budgeting. Total expenditures in Ontario increased by only 16 per cent in terms of real inputs, as compared with an increase of 101 per cent in the United States. Real inputs per patient-day increased at a mean annual rate of 0.68 per cent in Ontario versus 5.19 per cent in the United States (P less than 0.001). Real inputs per admission decreased at a mean annual rate of 1.12 per cent in Ontario, as compared with an increase of 4.15 per cent in the United States (P less than 0.0001). We conclude that regulation can contain the growth of real inputs employed in the hospital sector even in the face of an incentive structure that does not promote cost consciousness on the part of patients or physicians. Although the effect of this strategy on the quality of care is unknown, so far it appears to have been politically acceptable in Ontario.
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Drug cost projections for 1999 and factors that are likely to influence drug costs are discussed. The producer price index indicates that the prices of drugs and pharmaceuticals increased sharply, by an average of 10.2%, during the first 10 months of 1998, compared with just 2.1% for all of 1997; the price of pharmaceutical prescription preparations increased by an average of 17.4% in the first 10 months of 1998-an increase of more than six times the average increase for 1997. In the first quarter of 1998, many generic drugs had major price increases. All these increases may be a sign of considerably higher drug costs in 1999. Group purchasing organizations predict price increases in 1999 of 3% for contracted drugs, 5% for noncontracted drugs, and 8% for current and newly marketed drug products. FDA has been able to decrease the time necessary to approve new drugs under the Prescription Drug User Fee Act of 1992 and will be expected to decrease the time even further under the FDA Modernization Act of 1997. Increases of 10-12% or more in managed health care coverage rates are being predicted for 1999, with even larger increases expected for fee-for-service plans. Managed care organizations point to the cost of prescription drugs as the major reason for their rate increases. Last year's prediction that we may be entering a period of smaller increases in drug costs was not fulfilled in 1998; all signs point to even higher drug costs in 1999.
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The cost of health care services, including dental services, continues to rise at a rate higher than the prices of all goods and services included in the CPI for urban consumers. Increases for physician services, medical care and hospital room rates exceed those for dental care. Dentists generally do not raise their fees across-the-board, but vary increases from procedure to procedure. Increases for certain common dental procedures and services were close to the CPI for consumer goods and services. Fees for such basic preventive and diagnostic procedures--including oral exams, prophylaxes and X-rays--increased at rates well below the overall CPI for dental services.
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The input prices indexes used in part to set payment rates for Medicare inpatient hospital services in both prospective payment system (PPS) and PPS-excluded hospitals were rebased from 1982 to 1987 beginning with payments for fiscal year 1991. In this article, the issues and evidence used to determine the composition of the revised hospital input price indexes are discussed. One issue is the need for a separate market basket for PPS-excluded hospitals. Also, the payment implications of using hospital-industry versus economywide measures of wage rates as price proxies for the growth in hospital wage rates are addressed.
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