[Retirement and the obligations of the future].
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"After a brief review of various projections of population decline for Quebec, the author analyses some previous examples of depopulation, and emphasizes that public opinion will have to change much if immigration is to be used as a tool for avoiding population decline. He then investigates four implications of the projected decline: the size of the working population, its age and sex structure, the labor force participation ratio, and the economic dependency ratio." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA)
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The author considers the impact of demographic aging in Japan on the social security system and on economic growth. It is argued that "First of all, as the cost of social security (including social services) increases remarkably at the earlier stage of ageing, the disposable (after tax) income and private consumption of the present labour force generation tend to increase at a lower growth rate than that of the GNP....Secondly if pension systems are based on terminal funding schemes, the ageing of the population increases savings (net increase of the amount of the pension funds) at the earlier stage of the ageing of the population. Thirdly, there is a time lag between the increase of social security benefits and the decrease in the personal savings ratio. The high ratio of savings and the shortage of aggregate demand as well as the high pressure for export in...recent Japan can partly be attributed to the above factors." Possible future economic scenarios as demographic ageing in Japan proceeds are described, and policies to avert anticipated problems are outlined. (SUMMARY IN JPN)
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"China's efforts to accelerate the pace of modernization emphasize the promotion of economic development and the reduction of its population growth through the adoption of a one-child per family policy. However, that policy has implications for the eventual aging of the country's population. This article reviews the changes in the status of the elderly, explores the changes in size of the elderly population, and various related social and policy implications." Topics considered include socioeconomic changes, underlying population dynamics, the current situation of the elderly, some international comparisons, implications of aging, planning for support of the elderly, health care, living arrangements and family support, retirement, and the status of the widowed, divorced, and unmarried in the elderly population.
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