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Economics↗

Ten common estate planning mistakes to avoid.

While most Americans are aware of the importance of estate planning, many fail to make the proper arrangements for their heirs. Problems can arise from a number of mistake, such as underestimating assets, relying solely on a will, or not planning for estate tax payments.

Death↗

Long-term morbidity and mortality risk in Japanese insurance applicants with chronic hepatitis C virus infection.

BACKGROUND: Japan has the highest rate of liver cancer of any industrialized country in the world, and research indicates that hepatitis C virus (HCV) is responsible for 50-76% of these cases. The natural history of chronic HCV infection is difficult to determine because the initial bout of acute infection is usually not recognized and serious complications generally do not develop for at least 3 decades. This article discusses use of a Markov model to estimate long-term morbidity and mortality risk associated with chronic HCV infection in otherwise healthy Japanese insurance applicants. A range of risk estimates is derived based on different assumptions of disease progression. RESULTS: Data for this analysis were based on prospective and combined retrospective-prospective studies of populations infected at different ages and followed for durations of up to 25 years. Estimated mortality ratios varied with assumptions regarding rate of progression from active HCV infection to cirrhosis. For males, peak mortality ratios decreased with advancing age at underwriting, from a high of 253% (age 20) to a low of 144% (age 60). A similar age-related pattern was seen for females, from a peak mortality ratio of 222% (age 20) to a low of 156% (age 60). In contrast to the pattern of decreasing relative mortality at older ages, morbidity increased with age at underwriting. Sensitivity analysis indicated that calculations in the model were sensitive to different transition rates from active HCV infection to cirrhosis and from cirrhosis to HCC, but were not sensitive to treatment frequency and success or the percentage of people treated prior to application. A review of the literature also suggested that a favorable prognosis was likely in applicants with persistently normal ALT levels, but prognosis was less certain for those with intermittent or persistent elevation of liver enzymes. CONCLUSION: Morbidity and mortality are within the insurable range for the majority of HCV-infected persons. Risk varies with gender, age at infection, and other variables discussed in the article.

Actuarial Analysis↗

Mortality outcome of surgically treated atrial septal defects.

Comparative mortality in this abstract shows that surgical repair of an atrial septal defect (ASD) confers a survival advantage beyond that expected for the study population. Determinates of expected mortality and mean q' include the table selected, zero-time age and annual age, and sex distribution of the cohort. Each has an independent effect on mortality ratios and excess death rates. Confounding variables such as participant selection within the study cohort affect the outcome. Despite the multiple, methodologic variables in this abstract, individuals having surgical repair of an ASD appear to have low mortality.

Aged↗

C-reactive protein--a screening test for coronary disease?

C-reactive protein (CRP) is one of a number of substances termed "acute phase reactants," biologic substances that appear in the circulation when an active inflammatory process occurs. Although traditionally used to monitor or detect major infectious or inflammatory conditions, elevations of CRP levels within the conventional range of "normals" has been intensively studied as a marker for coronary disease and risk of future coronary events. Sensitive assays that can be performed on a high-volume, commercial basis are now available. CRP appears to be a valuable marker for the prediction of future events in individuals who have known coronary artery disease. CRP has been proposed as a coronary disease-screening test for healthy individuals; however, available data suggest that use of CRP in this context may be premature. This paper reviews published research concerning CRP and the prediction of cardiovascular and total mortality risk, then outlines the current "state of the art" for the application of CRP to the risk assessment process.

Aged↗