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PubMedDate not supplied

Children's probability intuitions: understanding the expected value of complex gambles.

Two experiments used Information Integration Theory to study how children judge expected value of complex gambles in which alternative outcomes have different prizes. Six-year-olds, 9-year-olds and adults (N = 73 in Study 1, N = 28 in Study 2) saw chance games that involved shaking a marble in a bicolored tube. One prize was won if the marble stopped on blue, another if it stopped on yellow. Children judged how happy a puppet playing the game would be, with the prizes and probability of the blue and yellow outcomes varied factorially. Three main results appeared in both studies: First, participants in all age groups used the normatively prescribed multiplication rule for integrating probability and value of each individual outcome--a striking finding because multiplicative reasoning does not usually appear before 8 years of age in other domains. Second, all age groups based judgment of overall expected value meaningfully on both alternative outcomes, but there were individual differences--many participants deviated from the normative addition rule, showing risk seeking and risk averse patterns of judgment similar to the risk attitudes often found with adults. Third, even the youngest children took probability to be an abstract rather than physical property of the game. Overall, in contrast to the traditional view, the present results demonstrate functional understanding of probability and expected value in children as young as 5 or 6. These results contribute to the growing evidence on children's intuitive reasoning competence. This intuition can, on the one hand, support surprisingly precocious performance in young children, but it may also contribute to the biases evident in adults' judgment and decision.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2000

The robust statistical bases of the coevolution theory of genetic code origin.

A paper (Amirnovin R, J Mol Evol 44:473-476, 1997) seems to undermine the validity of the coevolution theory of genetic code origin by shedding doubt on the connection between the biosynthetic relationships between amino acids and the organization of the genetic code, at a time when the literature on the topic takes this for granted. However, as a few papers cite this paper as evidence against the coevolution theory, and to cast aside all doubt on the subject, we have decided to reanalyze the statistical bases on which this theory is founded. We come to the following conclusions: (1) the methods used in the above referred paper contain certain mistakes, and (2) the statistical foundations on which the coevolution theory is based are extremely robust. We have done this by critically appraising Amirnovin's paper and suggesting an alternative method based on the generation of random codes which, along with the method reported in the literature, allows us to evaluate the significance, in the genetic code, of different sets of amino acid pairs in biosynthetic relationships. In particular, by using this method and after building up a certain set of amino acid pairs reflecting the expectations of the coevolution theory, we show that the presence of this set in the genetic code would be obtained, purely by chance, with a probability of 6x10(-5). This observation seems to provide particularly strong support to the coevolution theory.

Amino Acids↗
PubMed2001

When are people persuaded by DNA match statistics?

The way in which statistical DNA evidence is presented to legal decision makers can have a profound impact on the persuasiveness of that evidence. Evidence that is presented one way may convince most people that the suspect is almost certainly the source of DNA evidence recovered from a crime scene. However, when the evidence is presented another way, a sizable minority of people equally convinced that the suspect is almost certainly not the source of the evidence. Three experiments are presented within the context of a theory ("exemplar cueing theory") for when people will find statistical match evidence to be more and less persuasive. The theory holds that the perceived probative value of statistical match evidence depends on the cognitive availability of coincidental match exemplars. When legal decision makers find it hard to imagine others who might match by chance, the evidence will seem compelling. When match exemplars are readily available, the evidence will seem less compelling. Experiments 1 and 2 show that DNA match statistics that target the individual suspect and that are framed as probabilities (i.e., "The probability that the suspect would match the blood drops if he were not their source is 0.1%") are more persuasive than mathematically equivalent presentations that target a broader reference group and that are framed as frequencies ("One in 1,000 people in Houston would also match the blood drops"). Experiment 3 shows that the observed effects are less likely to occur at extremely small incidence rates. Implications for the strategic use of presentation effects at trial are considered.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Separation of time scales, fixation probabilities and convergence to evolutionarily stable states under isolation by distance.

To a first order of approximation, selection is frequency independent in a wide range of family structured models and in populations following an island model of dispersal, provided the number of families or demes is large and the population is haploid or diploid but allelic effects on phenotype are semidominant. This result underlies the way the evolutionary stability of traits is computed in games with continuous strategy sets. In this paper similar results are derived under isolation by distance. The first-order effect on expected change in allele frequency is given in terms of a measure of local genetic diversity, and of measures of genetic structure which are almost independent of allele frequency in the total population when the number of demes is large. Hence, when the number of demes increases the response to selection becomes of constant sign. This result holds because the relevant neutral measures of population structure converge to equilibrium at a rate faster than the rate of allele frequency changes in the total population. In the same conditions and in the absence of demographic fluctuations, the results also provide a simple way to compute the fixation probability of mutants affecting various ecological traits, such as sex ratio, dispersal, life-history, or cooperation, under isolation by distance. This result is illustrated and tested against simulations for mutants affecting the dispersal probability under a stepping-stone model.

Ecology↗
PubMed2006

Separation of time scales, fixation probabilities and convergence to evolutionary stable states under isolation by distance.

To a first order of approximation, selection is frequency independent in a wide range of family structured models and in populations following an island model of dispersal, provided the number of families or demes is large and the population is haploid or diploid but allelic effects on phenotype are semidominant. This result underlies the way the evolutionary stability of traits is computed in games with continuous strategy sets. In this paper similar results are derived under isolation by distance. The first-order effect on expected change in allele frequency is given in terms of a measure of local genetic diversity, and of measures of genetic structure which are almost independent of allele frequency in the total population when the number of demes is large. Hence, when the number of demes increases the response to selection becomes of constant sign. This result holds because the relevant neutral measures of population structure converge to equilibrium at a rate faster than the rate of allele frequency changes in the total population. In the same conditions and in the absence of demographic fluctuations, the results also provide a simple way to compute the fixation probability of mutants affecting various ecological traits, such as sex ratio, dispersal, life-history, or cooperation, under isolation by distance. This result is illustrated and tested against simulations for mutants affecting the dispersal probability under a stepping-stone model.

Ecology↗
PubMed2003

Modeling the aggregation of partially covered particles: theory and simulation.

A theoretical model for describing the initial stages of the aggregation of partially covered colloidal particles is presented. It is based on the assumption of short-range interactions that may be modeled by a sticking probability on contact. Three types of sticking probabilities are distinguished depending on the collision type, i.e., for bare-bare, bare-covered, and covered-covered collisions. Hence, the model allows an analytical expression for the dimer-formation rate constant k(11), to be deduced as a function of the degree of surface coverage and the three sticking probabilities. The theoretical predictions are contrasted with simulated data. The observed agreement between theory and simulations shows the usefulness of the model for predicting the initial stages of this kind of aggregation processes.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2003

Theoretical interpretation of electronic absorption and emission transitions in 9-acridinones.

Stationary absorption, fluorescence excitation and fluorescence spectra for 9(10H)-acridinone, 9(10-methyl)-acridinone, 2-methyl-9(10-methyl)-acridinone, 2-nitro-9(10-methyl)-acridinone, 9(10-ethyl)-acridinone and 9(10-phenyl)-acridinone dissolved in 1,4-dioxane, methyl alcohol or acetonitrile, as well as the available spectral characteristics reported by others were compared with those predicted theoretically at the semi-empirical PM3/CI (including the solvent effect within the COSMO model) or PM3/S levels of theory, in order to interpret spectral features of the compounds, i.e. the energies and probabilities of S0-->Sn, S0-->T1, T1-->T2, S1-->S0, T1-->S0 and S1-->T1 transitions. Calculations at the PM3 and PM3/CI levels of theory enabled the structural changes accompanying S0-->S1, S1-->T1 and T1-->S0 transitions to be investigated; they yielded, moreover, basic physicochemical characteristics of the molecules in the ground and excited electronic states. Theoretically predicted dipole moments and charge distributions in the S0, S1 and T1 states provided further insight into the nature of electronic transitions in 9-acridinones. The predicted characteristics correlate quite well with the available experimental ones, thus providing confirmation of the utility of theory in predicting the features of electronically excited molecules and interpreting the electronic transitions occurring in them.

Acridines↗
PubMed2004

A theory of polymer solutions without the mean-field approximation in Flory-Huggins theory.

The concept of the volume fraction at chain end is proposed, which is the conditional probability for a site having been occupied, knowing that an adjacent site is occupied by polymer end. The overall entropy of polymer/solvent system is separated into two fundamentally different parts, i.e., the translational entropy and the conformational entropy. Based on these a theory of polymer solutions is established. When a mean-field approximation is introduced, Flory-Huggins (FH) theory is recovered. The FH interaction parameters and spinodal curves of the polystyrene/cyclohexane system are calculated and compared with the experimental data. The good prediction of them two is achieved.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2003

Attention, theory of mind, and causal attributions in people with persecutory delusions: A preliminary investigation.

INTRODUCTION: Abnormal attributions and deficits in theory of mind (ToM) skills have been implicated in paranoid delusions. Bentall and Kinderman (1998) have proposed that ToM deficits tend to prevent individuals from making situational attributions and therefore increase the probability of external-personal attributions, which in turn lead to paranoid beliefs. They further suggested that more fundamental information-processing deficits, by affecting theory of mind skills, increase the probability of paranoid attributions. METHODS: Relationships between attention, ToM and attributions were assessed in acute and remitted paranoid patients and normal controls. Participants performed the digit span with distraction task, false belief and deception tasks, and a measure of attributional style. RESULTS: Compared to the controls, acute patients were distractible, performed poorly on ToM, and made more attributions that were judged external-personal by independent raters (but not as judged by self-ratings). ToM scores predicted the number of external-personal attributions as expected, but the effect of distraction on ToM was equivocal. CONCLUSIONS: Preliminary support was found for the hypotheses, but further studies are required using a range of executive, attentional, ToM, and attribution measures.

Journal Article↗
PubMed1980

Relaxation and subjective estimates of muscle tension: implications for a central efferent theory of muscle control.

The relationship of "awareness of muscle tension" to depth of relaxation was explored. In one experiment, accuracy of forearm flexor control was assessed using the psychophysical method of magnitude production, and depth of flexor relaxation was measured using the integrated EMG before and after EMG biofeedback training. No consistent relationship between motor-control accuracy and depth of relaxation was found. A second, similar experiment with frontalis showed increased accuracy of frontalis control with deeper relaxation. Accuracy of passive, verbal judgments of spontaneous frontalis tension fluctuation exhibited no clear relationship with depth of relaxation. It was concluded that forearm flexor and frontalis may be under the control of distinct mechanisms, and that afferent information probably contributes to the control of neither muscle. Three structural theories of the control mechanisms were considered, and one depending on the central monitoring of efferent outflow (rather than afferent inflow) seemed most compatible with the frontalis data. Both flexor and frontalis data could be accounted for by a two-phase scheme combining central outflow monitoring with the monitoring of mental contents for arousal value at very low muscle tension levels.

Adult↗
PubMed1978

Anticipatory HR deceleration as a function of perceived control and probability of aversive loud noise: a deployment of attention account.

Five groups of 10 undergraduate subjects each participated in an experiment to examine the effects of perceived control over, and the probability of occurrence of, noxious (white-noise) stimulation on anticipatory heart rate (HR) deceleration. All groups performed an arithmetic task, the numbers for which were changed on each of the 20 trials, but three groups were defined as active groups since they were instructed that the occurrence of noxious stimulation was contingent upon their performance on the task. The actual probability of occurrence of noxious stimulation (i.e., either 0.9, 0.5 or 0.1) was manipulated between these three groups. A fourth (passive) group (0.5 probability of occurrence) was instructed as to the non-contingent relationship between performance and the aversive white noise. The last group was a control group which only performed the task, and thus both provided an estimate of the rate of return to baseline following the expected HR acceleration to the task and eliminated the need for a within-subject control period to assess HR deceleration. The results indicated that all active and passive groups produced significant HR decelerations, relative to the control group, prior to the noxious stimulus. However, all active groups (regardless of probability levels) displayed significantly greater, and required more trials to maximally develop, anticipatory deceleration than the passive group. In addition, the results for the active groups revealed a direct relationship between the probability of occurrence of noxious stimulation and the magnitude of anticipatory deceleration. It is argued that the results cannot be adequately accommodated by the preparatory-adaptive-response theory. A deployment-of-attention account is suggested since it appears both to account for the obtained pattern of results completely and to generate additional testable predictions for the future.

Adaptation, Psychological↗
PubMed2002

Cluster persistence in one-dimensional diffusion-limited cluster-cluster aggregation.

The persistence probability, P(C)(t), of a cluster to remain unaggregated is studied in cluster-cluster aggregation, when the diffusion coefficient of a cluster depends on its size s as D(s) approximately s(gamma). In the mean field the problem maps to the survival of three annihilating random walkers with time-dependent noise correlations. For gamma> or =0 the motion of persistent clusters becomes asymptotically irrelevant and the mean-field theory provides a correct description. For gamma<0 the spatial fluctuations remain relevant and the persistence probability is overestimated by the random walk theory. The decay of persistence determines the small size tail of the cluster size distribution. For 0<gamma<2 the distribution is flat and, surprisingly, independent of gamma.

Journal Article↗
PubMed1989

A prospective evaluation of optimal sampling theory in the determination of the steady-state pharmacokinetics of piperacillin in febrile neutropenic cancer patients.

We examined the use of optimal sampling theory in the determination of the pharmacokinetics of piperacillin in febrile, neutropenic cancer patients. Patients were studied prospectively as part of a randomized, double-blind clinical trial of piperacillin and amikacin versus imipenem and placebo. The results from the analysis of 5 optimal samples were compared with those derived from 15 concentration determinations (10 samples, with the 5 optimal samples assayed in duplicate). The use of a standard least-squares estimator as opposed to a bayesian estimator, with normal prior distributions placed on beta and serum clearance, was also examined. Finally, the use of duplicate determinations in improving the precision of parameter estimation was studied. Plasma concentrations obtained at time points determined by optimal sampling theory, when analyzed with a bayesian estimator, produced estimates of pharmacokinetic parameter values that were in good agreement with those derived from the 15-determination set. Duplicate assay did not improve the precision of parameter estimation. Estimation of plasma clearance was quite robust, irrespective of the estimator used, probably because this evaluation was performed at steady state. Optimal sampling theory is a promising technique that can be employed to determine patient-specific estimates of pharmacokinetic parameter values in target populations.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2000

Heterozygosity probabilities for normal relatives of isolated cases affected by incompletely penetrant conditions and the calculation of recurrence risks for their offspring. I. Autosomal dominant genes.

Heterozygosity probabilities P(het) for relatives of isolated cases produced by incompletely penetrant autosomal dominant genes and recurrence risks for their offspring, R = P(het).K/2, where K is the penetrance value, have been calculated in the literature for some simple particular situations. Bayes theorem and elements from the theory of finite difference equations enabled us to derive the heterozygosity probability for any individual belonging to a pedigree containing an isolated case affected with an incompletely penetrant autosomal dominant disorder. The generalized formula here derived is valid for most particular cases thus far studied in the literature.

Family Health↗
PubMed1978

Compartment model approach to the estimation of tumor incidence and growth: investigation of a model of cancer latency.

Consideration is made of the problems involved in determining the effects of a chronic disease process, such as stomach cancer, on the observed mortality of the U.S. population. Specifically, since the time of initiation of tumor growth is unknown and the tumor becomes clinically manifest only after reaching considerable size, the early rate and pattern of tumor growth is unobserved. As a possible solution to the analysis of such problems, it is proposed to use stochastic compartment modelling techniques which deal with the problems of estimating the transition probabilities of a partially observed stochastic process. Implementation of the stochastic compartment techniques in this case depends on the selection of certain mathematical expressions from theories of carcinogenesis, epidemiologic studies and animal studies which allow the calculation of transition probabilities to unobserved states by making them explicit functions of time or age. Though the selection of the specific functions might be subject to debate, the general strategy of explicitly selecting such functions, and thereby exposing them for review in terms of biologic reasonableness and consistency with the data, seems to be a valid and useful methodology. Furthermore, various ways of viewing the model results (say from its internal behavior, e.g., from implied distributions of waiting times in various disease states) yield different insights into the various factors in carcinogenesis. The model, with parameters representing tumor incidence, time to tumor death given onset, genetic susceptibility to tumor growth and the effects of competing forces of mortality, is fitted to data on deaths due to stomach cancer for male U.S. residents age 25 and over in 1969. Two basic forms of the model, one with a waiting time distribution for occupants of the latent state and another with a single latency time, achieved excellent fits to the data. Examination of parameter estimates and compartment waiting time distributions are consistent with theoretical expectations and intuition. It is concluded that such strategies, involving the integration of clinical, experimental and vital statistics data into a comprehensive model of population carcinogenesis, are potentially powerful tools for investigation of the temporal dimensions of disease development in a human population.

Adult↗
PubMed1991

Perspectives on Golgi apparatus form and function.

In 1898, Camillio Golgi reported a new cellular constituent with the form of an extensive intracellular network (the apparato reticolare interno), which now bears his name. However, the history of Golgi's apparatus is replete with controversy regarding its reality, what components of the cell should be included under its aegis, and what terminology should be used when referring to it. Electron microscopy has resolved many of these controversies and it is appropriate that this volume emphasize that aspect of Golgi apparatus discovery. The principal structural component of the Golgi apparatus is the stack of cisternae, or dictyosome. As determined both biochemically and at the level of electron microscopy, the dictyosome is a highly ordered and polarized structure. The maintenance of order within the stack is thought to result from either intercisternal bonding constituents, or filamentous structures (or both) that bridge the space between adjacent cisternae. Mechanisms proposed for movement of membrane and product into and out of the dictyosome (i.e., the Golgi apparatus stack) include a serial mode which functions exclusively by the formation, displacement, and loss of cisternae from the stack, and a parallel mode which functions exclusively by the movement of membrane, product, or precursor molecules directly into the peripheral edges of the cisternae. In the parallel mode, all cisternae can be accessed either singly or simultaneously, at least in theory, at any position within the stack. It is probable that both the serial and the parallel modes function concomitantly and need not be mutually exclusive. Finally, the peripheral tubules of the cisternae represent a major membranous constituent of the cell with potentially unique functions. These tubules interconnect cisternae of adjacent stacks and may represent the major site of receptors for the shuttle (i.e., parallel) type of transfer among cisternae. Peripheral tubules as extensions of the cisternal lumina into the cytoplasm presumably have other functions, but these, like the tubules themselves, have only rarely been accommodated into functional models of Golgi apparatus dynamics in secretion or membrane flow.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

Predation in the presence of decoys: an inhibitory factor on pathogen control by bacteriophages or bdellovibrios in dense and diverse ecosystems.

Several attempts have been made at the removal of specific pathogens from the intestinal microflora using either bacteriophages or "predatory" bacteria such as Bdellovibrio spp. To date these attempts have had mixed success. A mechanism explaining these findings based on competitive hindrance by non-prey, or decoy species is put forward. It is shown that this hindrance tends to damp out predator-prey oscillations, and therefore reduces the probability of prey extinction. Possible experiments to verify this theory are discussed. The decoy effect may play a role in any system with high densities of bacteria or other particulate matter, such as activated sludge or biofilms.

Bacteria↗
PubMed1984

Transmembrane electron transport and the neutral theory of evolution.

Based on the concept of "pairs of basic functional states" the evolution of the first chemiosmotic mechanism of energy conversion is discussed in terms of point mutations, gene duplications and of the neutral theory of evolution. A model for estimating the overall probability of the evolutionary step in question is presented, both for the "selectionist" and "neutralist" position. It is concluded that, concerning the present stage of knowledge, the evolution of transmembrane electron transport is an unsolved problem in evolutionary biology.

Adenosine Triphosphatases↗