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PubMed1989

On statistical methods for analysing the geographical distribution of cancer cases near nuclear installations.

There is great public concern, often based on anecdotal reports, about risks from ionising radiation. Recent interest has been directed at an excess of leukaemia cases in the locality of civil nuclear installations at Sellafield and Sizewell, and epidemiologists have a duty to pursue such information vigorously. This paper sets out to show that the epidemiological methods most commonly used can be improved upon. When analysing geographical data it is necessary to consider location. The most obvious quantification of location is ranked distance, though other measures which may be more meaningful in relation to aetiology may be substituted. A test based on distance ranks, the "Poisson maximum test", depends on the maximum of observed relative risk in regions of increasing size, but with significance level adjusted for selection. Applying this test to data from Sellafield and Sizewell shows that the excess of leukaemia incidence observed at Seascale, near Sellafield, is not an artefact due to data selection by region, and that the excess probably results from a genuine, if as yet unidentified cause (there being little evidence of any other locational association once the Seascale cases have been removed). So far as Sizewell is concerned, geographical proximity to the nuclear power station does not seem particularly important.

Cluster Analysis↗
PubMed1995

A system to project injury and illness incidence during military operations.

Modeling of medical resource requirements during military operations requires projections of disease and non-battle injury (DNBI) and wounded-in-action (WIA) rates. Historical data were extracted from unit diaries of infantry and support troops deployed during four previous combat engagements. A planning tool (FORECAS) was developed that uses the statistical distributions of DNBI and WIA incidence from previous operations to simulate injury and illness arrival rates under future scenarios. Output of the simulated data reflects the nuances of the empirical data.

Decision Support Systems, Management↗
PubMed2003

Dynamical robustness of Lévy search strategies.

We study the role of dynamical constraints in the general problem of finding the best statistical strategy for random searching when the targets can be detected only in the limited vicinity of the searcher. We find that the optimal search strategy depends strongly on the delay time tau during which a previously visited site becomes unavailable. We also find that the optimal search strategy is always described for large step lengths l by a power-law distribution P(l) approximately l(-mu), with 1<mu(tau)</=2. Our findings appear to remain valid even if arbitrary energy costs of locomotion are considered.

Feeding Behavior↗
PubMed1997

Making quantal analysis easier and more accurate.

Problems inherent in applying quantal analysis to synapses are discussed. These include the dispersion in time of the evoked quantal releases and the skew to the right in the distribution of the sizes of the spontaneous miniature potentials. To circumvent some of the problems, quantal analysis was performed at the neuromuscular junction by dividing each individual endplate current (EPC) by the mean miniature endplate current (MEPC) or each individual time integral of the endplate current (integral of EPC) by the mean integral of MEPC. The results were evaluated by comparing the resulting distributions to the predictions of Poisson's law, based on the number of stimuli not followed by a response. The quantal distributions obtained from the integral of MEPCs by this 'point-by-point' were in excellent agreement with these predictions. This method may make quantal analysis easier and more reliable.

Animals↗
PubMed1994

Time series models based on generalized linear models: some further results.

This paper considers the problem of extending the classical moving average models to time series with conditional distributions given by generalized linear models. These models have the advantage of easy construction and estimation. Statistical modelling techniques are also proposed. Some simulation results and an illustrative example are reported to illustrate the methodology. The models will have potential applications in longitudinal data analysis.

Biometry↗
PubMed1997

Coverage processes in physical mapping by anchoring random clones.

The aim of this paper is to provide general results for predicting progress in a physical mapping project by anchoring random clones, when clones and anchors are not homogeneously distributed along the genome. A complete physical map of the DNA of an organism consists of overlapping clones spanning the entire genome. Several schemes can be used to construct such a map, depending on the way that clones overlap. We focus here on the approach consisting of assembling clones sharing a common random short sequence called an anchor. Some mathematical analyses providing statistical properties of anchored clones have been developed in the stationary case. Modeling the clone and anchor processes as nonhomogeneous Poisson processes provides such an analysis in a general nonstationary framework. We apply our results to two natural nonhomogeneous models to illustrate the effect of inhomogeneity. This study reveals that using homogeneous processes for clones and anchors provides an overly optimistic assessment of the progress of the mapping project.

Cloning, Molecular↗
PubMed2006

A note on generation times in epidemic models.

The time between the infection of a primary case and one of its secondary cases is called a generation time. The distribution (and mean) of the generation times is derived for a rather general class of epidemic models. The relation to assumptions on distributions of latency times and infectious times or more generally on random time varying infectiousness, is investigated. Serial times, defined as the times between occurrence of observable events in the progress of an infectious disease (e.g., the onset of clinical symptoms), are also considered.

Algorithms↗
PubMed1997

Density and distribution of cattle lice (Phthiraptera:Haematopinidae, Linognathidae, Trichodectidae) on six steers.

The density and distribution of four species of cattle louse, Bovicola bovis (L.). Haematopinus eurysternus (Nitzsch), Linognathus vituli (L.), and Solenopotes capillatus (Enderlein), were elucidated from the hides of six slaughtered steers. Adult and nymphal lice were first removed from one hide by hand and the location of each specimen mapped. The remaining lice were removed by a detergent wash, and KOH dissolution of hide and hair. Lice from the remaining five hides were removed using KOH dissolution of cattle hair and subsequent filtration of the effluent. Bovicola bovis was most abundant, followed by H. eurysternus, L. vituli and S. capillatus. Significant variation was observed in B. bovis, H. eurysternus and L. vituli population densities. Solenopotes capillatus population densities did not differ significantly. All species were contagiously distributed, i.e. 'clumped', suggesting species dependent predilection sites. Predilection sites were ranked according to louse density to facilitate the development of field sampling strategies. Additional biological data were gathered on sex and life stage ratios for each species.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Bayesian predictive inference for time series count data.

Correlated count data arise often in practice, especially in repeated measures situations or instances in which observations are collected over time. In this paper, we consider a parametric model for a time series of counts by constructing a likelihood-based version of a model similar to that of Zeger (1988, Biometrika 75, 621-629). The model has the advantage of incorporating both overdispersion and autocorrelation. We consider a Bayesian approach and propose a class of informative prior distributions for the model parameters that are useful for prediction. The prior specification is motivated from the notion of the existence of data from similar previous studies, called historical data, which is then quantified into a prior distribution for the current study. We derive the Bayesian predictive distribution and use a Bayesian criterion, called the predictive L measure, for assessing the predictions for a given time series model. The distribution of the predictive L measure is also derived, which will enable us to compare the predictive ability for each model under consideration. Our methodology is motivated by a real data set involving yearly pollen counts, which is examined in some detail.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed2001

Diffusion and prediction of Leishmaniasis in a large metropolitan area in Brazil with a Bayesian space-time model.

We present results from an analysis of human visceral Leishmaniasis cases based on public health records of Belo Horizonte, Brazil, from 1994 to 1997. The main emphasis in this study is on the development of a spatial statistical model to map and project the rates of visceral Leishmaniasis in Belo Horizonte. The model allows for space-time interaction and it is based on a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We assume that the underlying rates evolve in time according to a polynomial trend specific to each small area in the region. The parameters of these polynomials receive a spatial distribution in the form of an autonormal distribution. While the raw rates are extremely noisy and inadequate to support decisions, the resulting smoothed rates estimates are considerably less affected by small area issues and provide very clear directions to implement public health actions.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed2003

The transfer of occlusal forces through the maxillary molars: a finite element study.

The morphology of the skeleton is known to reflect functional demand. A change in the intramaxillary position of molars can be expected to influence the transfer of occlusal forces to the facial skeleton. A finite element analysis allows us to simulate the displacement of a molar in relation to the well-defined morphology of the maxilla. Three 3-dimensional unilateral models of a maxilla from a skull with skeletal Class I and neutral molar relationships were produced based on CT-scan data. The maxillary first molar was localized so that the contour of the mesial root continued into the infrazygomatic crest. When the molar was loaded with occlusal forces, the stresses were transferred predominantly through the infrazygomatic crest. This changed when mesial and distal displacements of the molars were simulated. In the model with mesial molar displacement, a larger part of the bite forces were transferred through the anterior part of the maxilla, resulting in the buccal bone being loaded in compression. In the model with distal molar displacement, the posterior part of the maxilla was deformed through compression; this resulted in higher compensatory tensile stresses in the anterior part of the maxilla and at the zygomatic arch. This distribution of the occlusal forces might contribute to the posterior rotation often described as the orthopedic effect of extraoral traction.

Alveolar Process↗
PubMed2004

Fluorescence resonance energy transfer-a spectroscopic probe for organized surfactant media.

Dyes commonly used as biological labels have been used to probe resonance energy transfer in organized media. In neat water, energy transfer between the dye pairs fluorescein (donor):Nile red (acceptor) and acridine orange (donor):Nile red (acceptor) has a very low probability of occurrence. This study shows that the rate constant of energy transfer increases by more than an order of magnitude in organized surfactant media, viz., micelles and reverse micelles of the surfactant Triton X-100. The reverse micelles provide a better medium for energy transfer than the micelles. The energy transfer studies also provide an idea about the location and proximity of donor and acceptor dyes within the various organized media. Assuming Poissonian statistics for dye distribution, the donor-acceptor distances within micelles and reverse micelles are determined from energy transfer parameters. Acridine orange has been found to function better as a donor than fluorescein. This may be due to steric and electrostatic factors.

Acridine Orange↗
PubMed1989

Finite element analysis of three- and four-unit bridges.

A two-dimensional finite element model of a mandibular quadrant was used to examine differences in magnitude of the principal stresses from the placement of three- and four-unit bridges. The area of interest spanned the first premolar to the second molar. Loading conditions were (i) vertical and distributed and (ii) 30 degrees to the vertical and concentrated. The principal stresses were calculated and compared for: (i) the first molar removed with the remaining bone either cancellous or cancellous surrounded by a cortical shell; (ii) as in (i) but with the second premolar and first molar removed; (iii) a three-unit bridge spanning the second premolar to the second molar; and (iv) a four-unit bridge spanning the first premolar to the second molar. Each tooth was supported by periodontal ligaments, cortical and cancellous bone with each assigned the appropriate physical constants. Removal of the first molar resulted in considerable variation of the stresses especially when the cortical shell was replaced by cancellous bone. Because of the lower modulus of cancellous bone and its lower load-bearing capabilities the stresses were three to ten times lower and more uniform within the cancellous bone. Generally, the addition of a bridge resulted in lower and better distributed sigma min stresses. The bridge also resulted in higher tensile stresses distal to the abutment teeth which theoretically could result in bone deposition. No significant differences in magnitude were observed between the three- and four-unit bridge. From a stress standpoint the bridges resulted in more uniform stress distribution around the abutments and an increase in the tensile stress distal to the abutments. Such findings support the placement of a fixed bridge to maintain bone in an edentulous area.

Alveolar Process↗
PubMed2001

Three-dimensional finite element analysis of the cartilaginous structures in the human temporomandibular joint.

While the movability of the human temporomandibular joint is great, the strains and stresses in the cartilaginous structures might largely depend on the position of the mandible with respect to the skull. This hypothesis was investigated by means of static three-dimensional finite element simulations involving different habitual condylar positions. Furthermore, the influence of several model parameters was examined by sensitivity analyses. The results indicated that the disc moved together with the condyle in the anterior direction without the presence of ligaments and the lateral pterygoid muscle. By adapting its shape to the changing geometry of the articular surfaces, the disc prevented small contact areas and thus local peak loading. In a jaw-closed configuration, the influence of 30 degrees variations of the loading direction was negligible. The load distribution capability of the disc appeared to be proportional to its elasticity and was enhanced by the fibrocartilage layers on the articular surfaces.

Aged↗
PubMed2001

A model of eye movements and visual working memory during problem solving in geometry.

The Oculomotor Geometry Reasoning Engine (OGRE) was proposed to model eye movements and visual working memory during problem solving in geometry. OGRE postulates that geometrical elements from diagrams are added to visual working memory when they are scanned. Newly-added elements overwrite elements already in memory. The model was applied to eye-movement patterns of three subjects: two geometry experts and one non-expert. Their eye movements and verbal protocols were recorded as they solved geometry problems posed with diagrams. Subjects used highly redundant eye-movement patterns with multiple rescans of the same geometrical elements. OGRE's model of visual memory provided a good fit for the distribution of times between rescans. The model was used to estimate the size of visual working memory used in geometry. The estimates varied as a function of both problems and subjects, with means and standard deviations for each subject being: 5.3+/-1.4, 4.0+/-0.9 and 4.7+/-1.6.

Eye Movements↗
PubMed2006

Incidence and predictors of all and preventable adverse drug reactions in frail elderly persons after hospital stay.

BACKGROUND: Adverse drug reactions (ADR) negatively impact life quality and are sometimes fatal. This study examines the incidence and predictors of all and preventable ADRs in frail elderly persons after hospital discharge, a highly vulnerable but rarely studied population. METHODS: The design was a prospective cohort study involving 808 frail elderly persons who were discharged from 11 Veteran Affairs hospitals to outpatient care. The main outcome measure was number of ADRs per patient as determined by blinded geriatrician and geropharmacist pairs using Naranjo's ADR algorithm. For all ADRs (possible, probable, or definite), preventability was assessed. Discordances were resolved by consensus conferences. RESULTS: Overall, 33% of patients had one or more ADRs for a rate of 1.92 per 1000 person-days of follow-up. The rate for preventable ADRs was 0.71 per 1000 person-days of follow-up. Independent risk factors for all ADRs were number of medications (adjusted [Adj.] hazard ratio [HR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.10 per medication), use of warfarin (Adj. HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.22-1.87), and (marginally) the use of benzodiazepines (Adj. HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.95-1.58). Counterintuitively, use of sedatives and/or hypnotics was inversely related to ADR risk (Adj. HR, 0.14; 95% CI, 0.04-0.57). Similar trends were seen for number of medications and warfarin use as predictors of preventable ADRs. CONCLUSIONS: ADRs are very common in frail elderly persons after hospital stay, and polypharmacy and warfarin use consistently increase the risk of ADRs.

Adverse Drug Reaction Reporting Systems↗
PubMed2005

Nearly smooth granular gases.

Hydrodynamic equations for nearly smooth granular gases are derived from the pertinent Boltzmann equation. The angular velocity distribution field needs to be included in the set of hydrodynamic fields. The angular velocity distribution is strongly non-Maxwellian for the homogeneous cooling state and any homogeneous steady state. In the case of steady wall-bounded shear flows the average spin (created at the boundaries) has a finite penetration length into the bulk.

Biomechanical Phenomena↗
PubMed1991

Random models for margins of a 2 x 2 contingency table and application to pharmacovigilance.

The identification of new adverse drug reactions is often tricky. For a given case, the relationship between drug exposure and symptom occurrence is usually questionable. It could be investigated statistically from a series of drug-event association cases with an independence test between the two variables. Analysing the related 2 x 2 contingency table obviously requires knowledge of its margins. However this information is often not available. We develop a calculation of the P-value by choosing some random models for the unknown margins. Under the hypothesis of independence, a negative binomial distribution for the frequency of the drug-event association cell is obtained, exactly or approximately. This method allows investigation of the causal relationship when some parameters, as incidence of the symptom in the population, are uncertain. An example is presented.

Anticoagulants↗