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Deforestation and plant diversity of Madagascar's littoral forests.

Few studies have attempted to quantify the reduction or document the floristic composition of forests in Madagascar. Thus, we focused specifically on deforestation and plant diversity in Madagascar's eastern littoral community. We used a data set of approximately 13,500 specimen records compiled from both historical and contemporary collections resulting from recent intensive inventory efforts to enumerate total plant species richness and to analyze the degree of endemism within littoral forests. Change in littoral forest cover from original to current extent was estimated using geographical information systems tools, remote sensing data (satellite imagery and low-elevation digital photography), and environmental data layers. Of the original littoral forest only 10.3% remains in the form of small forest parcels, and only 1.5% of these remaining fragments are included within the existing protected-areas network. Additionally, approximately 13% of Madagascar's total native flora has been recorded from these forests that originally occupied <1% of its total land surface, and over 25% of the 1535 plant species known from littoral forests are endemic to this community. Given the ongoing pressure from human settlement along Madagascar's eastern coast, protection of the remaining forest fragments is critical for their survival. Fifteen of the largest intact littoral forest fragments we identified, collectively representing 41.5% of remaining littoral forest, are among priority sites recommended to the government of Madagascar for plant conservation and incorporation into the protected-areas network.

Biodiversity↗

Structured additive regression for categorical space-time data: a mixed model approach.

Motivated by a space-time study on forest health with damage state of trees as the response, we propose a general class of structured additive regression models for categorical responses, allowing for a flexible semiparametric predictor. Nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, time trends, and interactions between continuous covariates are modeled by penalized splines. Spatial effects can be estimated based on Markov random fields, Gaussian random fields, or two-dimensional penalized splines. We present our approach from a Bayesian perspective, with inference based on a categorical linear mixed model representation. The resulting empirical Bayes method is closely related to penalized likelihood estimation in a frequentist setting. Variance components, corresponding to inverse smoothing parameters, are estimated using (approximate) restricted maximum likelihood. In simulation studies we investigate the performance of different choices for the spatial effect, compare the empirical Bayes approach to competing methodology, and study the bias of mixed model estimates. As an application we analyze data from the forest health survey.

Bayes Theorem↗

Identification and analysis of differentially expressed cDNAs during nonself-competitive interaction between Phlebiopsis gigantea and Heterobasidion parviporum.

The molecular factors regulating interspecific interaction between the saprotrophic biocontrol fungus Phlebiopsis gigantea and the conifer pathogen Heterobasidion parviporum were investigated. We constructed cDNA libraries and used expressed sequence tag analysis for the identification and characterization of genes expressed during the self and nonself-hyphal interaction. cDNA clones from either the pathogen or biocontrol agent were arrayed on nylon membrane filters and differentially screened with cDNA probes made from mycelia forming the barrage zone during nonself-interactions, mycelia growing outside the barrage zones or monocultures. BlastX analysis of the differentially expressed clones led to the identification of genes with diverse functions, including those with potential as virulence factors, such as hydrophobins. Because of the high sequence conservation (r2 = 0.81) between P. gigantea and H. parviporum, a selected number of genes from either fungus were used to monitor the expression profile under varying interaction conditions by virtual northern blot. The results are discussed with respect to the potential role of the induced genes during the nonself-competitive interaction for space and nutrients between P. gigantea and H. parviporum.

Basidiomycota↗

Compaction of forest soil by logging machinery favours occurrence of prokaryotes.

Soil compaction caused by passage of logging machinery reduces the soil air capacity. Changed abiotic factors might induce a change in the soil microbial community and favour organisms capable of tolerating anoxic conditions. The goals of this study were to resolve differences between soil microbial communities obtained from wheel-tracks (i.e. compacted) and their adjacent undisturbed sites, and to evaluate differences in potential anaerobic microbial activities of these contrasting soils. Soil samples obtained from compacted soil had a greater bulk density and a higher pH than uncompacted soil. Analyses of phospholipid fatty acids demonstrated that the eukaryotic/prokaryotic ratio in compacted soils was lower than that of uncompacted soils, suggesting that fungi were not favoured by the in situ conditions produced by compaction. Indeed, most-probable-number (MPN) estimates of nitrous oxide-producing denitrifiers, acetate- and lactate-utilizing iron and sulfate reducers, and methanogens were higher in compacted than in uncompacted soils obtained from one site that had large differences in bulk density. Compacted soils from this site yielded higher iron-reducing, sulfate-reducing and methanogenic potentials than did uncompacted soils. MPN estimates of H2-utilizing acetogens in compacted and uncompacted soils were similar. These results indicate that compaction of forest soil alters the structure and function of the soil microbial community and favours occurrence of prokaryotes.

Fatty Acids↗

Consistent land- and atmosphere-based U.S. carbon sink estimates.

For the period 1980-89, we estimate a carbon sink in the coterminous United States between 0.30 and 0.58 petagrams of carbon per year (petagrams of carbon = 10(15) grams of carbon). The net carbon flux from the atmosphere to the land was higher, 0.37 to 0.71 petagrams of carbon per year, because a net flux of 0.07 to 0.13 petagrams of carbon per year was exported by rivers and commerce and returned to the atmosphere elsewhere. These land-based estimates are larger than those from previous studies (0.08 to 0.35 petagrams of carbon per year) because of the inclusion of additional processes and revised estimates of some component fluxes. Although component estimates are uncertain, about one-half of the total is outside the forest sector. We also estimated the sink using atmospheric models and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (the tracer-transport inversion method). The range of results from the atmosphere-based inversions contains the land-based estimates. Atmosphere- and land-based estimates are thus consistent, within the large ranges of uncertainty for both methods. Atmosphere-based results for 1980-89 are similar to those for 1985-89 and 1990-94, indicating a relatively stable U.S. sink throughout the period.

Agriculture↗

Changes in forest biomass carbon storage in China between 1949 and 1998.

The location and mechanisms responsible for the carbon sink in northern mid-latitude lands are uncertain. Here, we used an improved estimation method of forest biomass and a 50-year national forest resource inventory in China to estimate changes in the storage of living biomass between 1949 and 1998. Our results suggest that Chinese forests released about 0.68 petagram of carbon between 1949 and 1980, for an annual emission rate of 0.022 petagram of carbon. Carbon storage increased significantly after the late 1970s from 4.38 to 4.75 petagram of carbon by 1998, for a mean accumulation rate of 0.021 petagram of carbon per year, mainly due to forest expansion and regrowth. Since the mid-1970s, planted forests (afforestation and reforestation) have sequestered 0.45 petagram of carbon, and their average carbon density increased from 15.3 to 31.1 megagrams per hectare, while natural forests have lost an additional 0.14 petagram of carbon, suggesting that carbon sequestration through forest management practices addressed in the Kyoto Protocol could help offset industrial carbon dioxide emissions.

Biomass↗

Human appropriation of photosynthesis products.

Previous global estimates of the human impact on terrestrial photosynthesis products depended heavily on extrapolation from plot-scale measurements. Here, we estimated this impact with the use of recent data, many of which were collected at global and continental scales. Monte Carlo techniques that incorporate known and estimated error in our parameters provided estimates of uncertainty. We estimate that humans appropriate 10 to 55% of terrestrial photosynthesis products. This broad range reflects uncertainty in key parameters and makes it difficult to ascertain whether we are approaching crisis levels in our use of the planet's resources. Improved estimates will require high-resolution global measures within agricultural lands and tropical forests.

Agriculture↗

Economic reasons for conserving wild nature.

On the eve of the World Summit on Sustainable Development, it is timely to assess progress over the 10 years since its predecessor in Rio de Janeiro. Loss and degradation of remaining natural habitats has continued largely unabated. However, evidence has been accumulating that such systems generate marked economic benefits, which the available data suggest exceed those obtained from continued habitat conversion. We estimate that the overall benefit:cost ratio of an effective global program for the conservation of remaining wild nature is at least 100:1.

Agriculture↗

Metapopulation persistence with age-dependent disturbance or succession.

Simple metapopulation models with random disturbances are used in species conservation or management, relying on the condition for persistence that the per-patch colonization rate be greater than the per-patch extinction rate. For a general model incorporating the role of succession or patch age-dependent extinction, I show that persistence requires the per-patch colonization rate to be greater than the inverse of mean patch age, where age is the time since the patch became available for colonization. Because mean patch age can be arbitrarily large relative to the extinction rate, currently persisting metapopulations may be persisting despite small colonization rates, and management approaches that do not consider the role of mean patch age may unnecessarily doom populations to extinction.

Animals↗