Counting heads, taking stock.
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Earth's land, water and cropland are disappearing so rapidly that the world population must be slashed to 2 billion or less by 2100 to provide prosperity for all in that year, says a study released yesterday. The alternative, if current trends continue, is a population of 12 billion to 15 billion people and an apocalyptic worldwide scene of "absolute misery, poverty, disease and starvation," said the study's author, David Pimentel, an ecologist at Cornell University. In the US, the population would climb to 500 million and the standard of living would decline to slightly better than in present-day China. Mr. Pimentel said at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Even now, the world population of 6 billion is at least 3 times what the Earth's battered natural resources and depleted energy reserves would be able to comfortably support in 2100, Mr. Pimentel said. Mr. Pimentel defines "comfortably support" as providing something close to the current American standard of living, but with wiser use of energy and natural resources. Although a decline to 1 billion or 2 billion people over the next century sounds nearly impossible, it could be done by limiting families around the world to an average of 1.5 children, Mr. Pimentel said. Currently, US women have an average of 2.1 children, while the average in Rwanda is 8.5.
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Even though the ESCAP region has been successful in slowing population growth, Asia will account for half of the global population increase every year, or about 1 billion persons in the next quarter century, according to a new report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). That report, entitled "Population Policy Paper," states that Asia will be the global center of population aging largely because of big increases in the number of persons over the age of 65 in China, Japan and the region's newly industrializing economies. "By the year 2000, 86% of the world's aged will be in the Asia-Pacific region and by the year 2025 there are projected to be 687 million persons over the age of 65 in the region, placing unprecedented strains on economic and social systems far beyond what traditional extended family networks can absorb," the paper says. But the report also considers other aspects of overall population increase. "The prospect of an additional billion or so people in Asia over the next 25 years is daunting, since the implications for poverty, economic growth, unemployment and environmental quality are immense," it adds. The region's economies will have to scramble to generate jobs and livelihoods for tens of millions of young people for the next several decades. Rural-to-urban migration trends threaten the collapse of urban infrastructure, with the social tensions and political instability that such troubles bring, the report states.
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