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Specificity and sensitivity of claims-based algorithms for identifying members of Medicare+Choice health plans that have chronic medical conditions.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of varying diagnostic and pharmaceutical criteria on the performance of claims-based algorithms for identifying beneficiaries with hypertension, heart failure, chronic lung disease, arthritis, glaucoma, and diabetes. STUDY SETTING: Secondary 1999-2000 data from two Medicare+Choice health plans. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of algorithm specificity and sensitivity. DATA COLLECTION: Physician, facility, and pharmacy claims data were extracted from electronic records for a sample of 3,633 continuously enrolled beneficiaries who responded to an independent survey that included questions about chronic diseases. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Compared to an algorithm that required a single medical claim in a one-year period that listed the diagnosis, either requiring that the diagnosis be listed on two separate claims or that the diagnosis to be listed on one claim for a face-to-face encounter with a health care provider significantly increased specificity for the conditions studied by 0.03 to 0.11. Specificity of algorithms was significantly improved by 0.03 to 0.17 when both a medical claim with a diagnosis and a pharmacy claim for a medication commonly used to treat the condition were required. Sensitivity improved significantly by 0.01 to 0.20 when the algorithm relied on a medical claim with a diagnosis or a pharmacy claim, and by 0.05 to 0.17 when two years rather than one year of claims data were analyzed. Algorithms that had specificity more than 0.95 were found for all six conditions. Sensitivity above 0.90 was not achieved all conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Varying claims criteria improved the performance of case-finding algorithms for six chronic conditions. Highly specific, and sometimes sensitive, algorithms for identifying members of health plans with several chronic conditions can be developed using claims data.

Algorithms↗

Will choice-based reform work for Medicare? Evidence from the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program.

OBJECTIVE: . To examine the effect of premiums and benefits on the health plan choices of older enrollees who choose Federal Employees Health Benefits Program (FEHBP) health plans as their primary payer. DATA SOURCES: Administrative enrollment data from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) and plan premiums and benefits data taken from the Checkbook Guide to health plans. STUDY DESIGN: We estimate individual plan choice models where the choice of health plan is a function of out-of-pocket premium, actuarial value, plan attributes, and individual characteristics. Plan attributes include plan structure (fee-for-service/preferred provider organization, point-of-service, or health maintenance organization), drug benefit structure, and whether or not the plan covers other types of spending such as dental services and diabetic supplies. The models are estimated by conditional logit. Our study focuses on three populations that currently choose FEHBP as their primary health care coverage and are similar to the Medicare population: current employees and retirees who are approaching the age of Medicare eligibility (ages 60-64) and current federal employees age 65+. Current employees age 65+ are eligible for Medicare, but their FEHBP plan is their primary payer. Retirees and employees 60-64 are not yet eligible for Medicare but are similar in many respects to recently age-eligible Medicare beneficiaries. We also estimate our model for current employees age 55 and younger as a comparison group. DATA COLLECTION METHODS: We select a random sample of retirees and employees age 60-64, as well as all current employees age 65+, from the OPM administrative database for the calendar year 2001. The plan choices available to each person are determined by the plans participating in their metropolitan statistical area. We match plan premium and attribute information from the Checkbook Guide to each plan in the enrollee's list of choices. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We find that current workers 65+, 60-64, and non-Medicare eligible retirees are sensitive to variation in plan premiums. The premium elasticities for these groups are similar in magnitude to those of the age 55 and under employee group. Older workers and retirees not yet eligible for Medicare are willing to pay a substantial amount for plans with open provider networks. The willingness to pay for open networks is significantly greater for these groups than for younger employees. Willingness to pay for open network plans varies significantly by income, but varies little by age within group. CONCLUSIONS: Our finding that older workers and non-Medicare eligible retirees are sensitive to plan premiums suggests that choice-based reform of Medicare would lead to cost-conscious choices by Medicare beneficiaries. However, our finding that these groups are willing to pay more for open network plans than younger employees suggest that higher risk individuals may migrate toward higher benefit, higher cost plans. Our findings on the relationship between income and willingness to pay for open network plans suggest that means testing is a viable reform for lowering Medicare program costs.

Adult↗

The economic burden of anemia in cancer patients receiving chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Anemia is one of the most common hematologic complications of cancer and cytotoxic treatment. The economic burden associated with anemia in patients with malignancy has not yet been extensively studied. METHODS: Patients receiving chemotherapy within 6 months of initial cancer diagnosis were identified in a database of commercial health-care service claims and encounters. Patients with anemia were identified through a coded diagnosis of anemia, transfusion, or erythropoietin treatment. Exponential conditional mean models and a decomposition analysis were used to analyze mean 6-month health-care expenditures. RESULTS: Twenty-six percent (26%) of 2760 cancer patients with recently diagnosed invasive cancer treated with chemotherapy had anemia. Mean (SD) 6-month unadjusted total expenditures were 62,499 dollars (78,016 dollars) for anemic patients and 36,871 dollars (52,308 dollars) for nonanemic patients (P < 0.0001), with inpatient services representing the largest cost differential between the groups. The adjusted mean 6-month expenditure for the average anemic patient receiving chemotherapy was 57,209 dollars. If anemic patients had the same average health status as nonanemic patients, their predicted 6-month expenditures would have been 19% lower (46,237 dollars). Alternatively, if anemic patients had the same expenditure structure or parameter estimates as nonanemic patients, their predicted expenditures would have been 51% lower (27,847 dollars). Thus, for any given health status, treating a patient who is anemic is associated with considerably higher expenditures. CONCLUSIONS: Anemia among cancer patients receiving chemotherapy is associated with a substantial burden in terms of direct medical costs. Implications for the treatment of anemia are suggested by this research and should be confirmed in prospective studies.

Aged↗

The instrumental variable method to study self-selection mechanism: a case of influenza vaccination.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether estimates of the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in reducing rates of hospitalizations and all-cause mortality derived from cross-sectional data could be improved by applying the instrumental variable (IV) method to data representing the community-dwelling elderly population in the United States in order to adjust for self-selection bias. METHODS: Secondary data analysis, using the 1996-97 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data. First, using single-equation probit regressions this study analyzed influenza-related hospitalization and death due to all causes predicted by vaccination status, which was measured by claims or survey data. Second, to adjust for potential self-selection of the vaccine receipt, for example, higher vaccination rates among high-risk individuals, bivariate probit (BVP) models and two-stage least squares (2SLS) models were employed. The IV was having either arthritis or gout. RESULTS: In single-equation probit models, vaccination appeared to be ineffective or even to increase the probability of adverse outcomes. Based on BVP and 2SLS models, vaccination was demonstrated to be effective in reducing influenza-related hospitalization by at least 31%. The BVP model results implied significant self-selection in the single-equation probit models. CONCLUSIONS: Adjusting for self-selection, BVP analyses yielded vaccine effectiveness estimates for a nationally representative cross-sectional sample of the community-dwelling elderly population that are consistent with previous estimates based on randomized controlled trials, prospective cohort studies, and meta-analyses. This result suggests that analyses with 2SLS and BVP in particular may be useful for the analysis of observational data regarding prevention in which self-selection is an important potential source of bias.

Aged↗

Consistency of performance ranking of comorbidity adjustment scores in Canadian and U.S. utilization data.

OBJECTIVE: The performance of standard comorbidity scores to control confounding is poorly defined in health care utilization data across elderly populations. We sought to evaluate and rank the performance of comorbidity scores across selected U.S. and Canadian elderly populations using health care utilization databases. DESIGN: Cross-population validation study. PARTICIPANTS: Study participants were residents age 65 years or older who had prescription drug coverage through state-funded programs selected from several large health care utilization databases available to the investigators: British Columbia, BC (N = 141,161), New Jersey, NJ (N = 235,881), and Pennsylvania, PA (N = 230,913). MEASUREMENTS: We calculated 6 commonly used comorbidity scores for all subjects during the baseline year (1994 for NJ and PA, and 1995 for BC). These included scores based on diagnoses (Romano, Deyo, D'Hoore, Ghali) and prescription drugs (CDS-1, CDS-2). The study outcome was 1-year mortality. The performance of scores was measured by c-statistics derived from multivariate logistic regression that included age and gender. MAIN RESULTS: Across these 4 large elderly populations, we found the same rank order of performance in predicting 1-year mortality after including age and gender in each model: Romano (c-statistic 0.754 to 0.771), Deyo (c-statistic 0.753 to 0.768), D'Hoore (c-statistic 0.745 to 0.760), Ghali (c-statistic 0.733 to 0.745), CDS-1 (c-statistic 0.689 to 0.738), CDS-2 (c-statistic 0.677 to 0.718), and age and gender alone (c-statistic 0.664 to 0.681). Performance was improved by an average of 6% by adding the number of different prescription drugs received during the past year. CONCLUSIONS: Performance ranking of 6 frequently used comorbidity scores was consistent across selected elderly populations. We recommend that investigators use these performance data as one important factor when selecting a comorbidity score for epidemiologic analyses of health care utilization data.

Aged↗

Misclassification and selection bias when identifying Alzheimer's disease solely from Medicare claims records.

BACKGROUND: Medicare claims as the basis for health condition adjustments is becoming a method of choice in capitation reimbursement. A recent study has found that claims-based beneficiary classification for Alzheimer's disease produces lower prevalence estimates and higher average costs than previous healthcare cost studies in this population. These sets of studies differ in data sources, period length, and in their specification of dementia. OBJECTIVES: Participants in the Medicare Alzheimer's Disease Demonstration (MADDE) provide a sample of persons known to have some form of dementia. This group is used to test the adequacy of claims data for identifying eligible cases and any bias in expenditure differences between those flagged or not flagged by a claim in a given period. DESIGN: A prospective cohort design using up to 36 months of claims data. SETTING: The demonstration enrolled 4166 participants in treatment, and 3942 in a control group in eight communities across the US. Cases were combined in this analysis. PARTICIPANTS: Persons with available Medicare Part A & B claims data: those receiving care under fee for service reimbursement were used in the analysis. A total of 5379 MADDE cases received fee for service care during 1991 and 1992, the period of primary interest in the analysis. MEASUREMENT: Client health and functional status interviews and Medicare Part A & B claims. RESULTS: Less than 20% of MADDE participants were classified with Dementia of the Alzheimer type (DAT) from a single year of claims although 68% had a DAT diagnosis from a referring physician. Annualized expenditures were 1.7 times higher among those with DAT from claims compared with those known otherwise to have dementia but who had not been identified with this condition from Medicare claims. CONCLUSION: Underclassification of dementia from claims records can be partially remedied by increasing the period during which claims are compiled, but additional diagnostic sources will likely be needed to increase prevalence counts closer to 100% of true cases. Risk adjustment based on a single year of reported claims expenditures may overpay providers, at least in the short term, because payment incentives will likely increase prevalence reporting.

Aged↗

Trends in controlled-release oxycodone (OxyContin) prescribing among Medicaid recipients in Kentucky, 1998-2002.

CONTEXT: Prescription opioid abuse has emerged as a public health problem, particularly in rural America. PURPOSE: To examine temporal and geographic trends in rates of controlled-release oxycodone (OxyContin) prescribing for Kentucky Medicaid recipients. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis was completed in which the state was divided into 3 regions (distressed Appalachia, Appalachia, and other Kentucky), and data from Medicaid pharmacy claims from 1998 to 2002 were analyzed. Claims were further stratified by disability status. FINDINGS: Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Medicaid recipients in distressed Appalachia were more likely than those in other Kentucky regions to file controlled-release oxycodone claims in 1999, 2001, and 2002. Even after adjusting for the proportion of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families recipients in each region, the distressed region still had significantly higher rates (P< .05) than the non-Appalachian region of controlled-release oxycodone prescription claims among Temporary Assistance for Needy Families recipients. Similar findings were observed for disabled Medicaid recipients in 2002. CONCLUSIONS: Higher rates of claims for controlled-release oxycodone in the distressed Appalachian region of Kentucky suggest that economic and health factors unique to this area may be contributing to increased use of this product. The increased availability of controlled-release oxycodone in distressed Appalachian regions may facilitate abuse.

Analgesics, Opioid↗

Gender differences in utilization of exercise treadmill testing: a claims-based analysis.

Significant data exist to suggest that women with coronary artery disease (CAD) have worse outcomes than men. One explanation is that women present with more advanced disease because of a lack of screening and early detection. To examine this, we performed a claims-based analysis of exercise treadmill testing (ETT) within an urban managed care population. We analyzed all claims for 57,793 covered lives. Utilization rates for ETT were calculated for men and women by age group. ETT utilization between men and women demonstrated significant differences: 49.2 tests/1,000 men versus 25.0 tests/1,000 women (p < 0.001). This 2:1 ratio was observed across multiple age strata. Significant differences in ETT utilization exist between men and women, even in older populations in which the incidence of CAD in women exceeds that in men. ETT often is the initial screening test for detecting CAD; these gender differences in ETT utilization may result in underdetection of CAD in women and treatment at later stages of disease when interventions are less effective.

Adult↗

A prospective cohort study of health outcomes following whiplash associated disorders in an Australian population.

OBJECTIVE: To define health outcomes of whiplash associated disorders (WAD) at three months, six months, and two years after injury and to examine predictors of these outcomes. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: New South Wales, Australia. SUBJECTS: People with compensable motor crash injuries who reported whiplash as one of their injuries. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Functional Rating Index (FRI), Short Form 36 (SF-36) at three months, six months, and two years after injury, ascertained by telephone interview. RESULTS: At three months, 33.6% of the cohort was recovered (as defined by FRI<or=25), increasing marginally at six months (38.9% recovered), but more significantly at two years (51.7% recovered, p = 0.001). The mean physical component score of the SF-36 improved at each time point (p = 0.002), while the mean mental component score did not (p = 0.59). Predictors of recovery at two years (as defined by global perceived effect) included a lower FRI index at baseline (p = 0.001) and closure of the claim at two years (p = 0.02). CONCLUSION: Whiplash injury had a large effect on the health of this Australian cohort of whiplash sufferers, with only 50% of the cohort recovered at two years. Physical measures of health appear to improve over time, whereas mental measures of health did not. Despite this, this cohort is largely able to participate in activities and work at two years. Prevention of chronic disability may lie with concentration of resources to those who score highly on the FRI at baseline. In addition, chronic psychological ill health may be prevented by directing treatment to those with poor scores on sensitive measures of psychological ill health at baseline.

Adolescent↗

Medical school attended as a predictor of medical malpractice claims.

OBJECTIVES: Following earlier research which showed that certain types of physicians are more likely to be sued for malpractice, this study explored (1). whether graduates of certain medical schools have consistently higher rates of lawsuits against them, (2). if the rates of lawsuits against physicians are associated with their school of graduation, and (3). whether the characteristics of the medical school explain any differences found. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of malpractice claims data from three states merged with physician data from the AMA Masterfile (n=30288). STUDY SUBJECTS: All US medical schools with at least 5% of graduates practising in three study states (n=89). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of graduates from a medical school for a particular decade sued for medical malpractice between 1990 and 1997 and odds ratio for lawsuits against physicians from high and low outlier schools; correlations between the lawsuit rates of successive cohorts of graduates of specific medical schools. RESULTS: Medical schools that are outliers for malpractice lawsuits against their graduates in one decade are likely to retain their outlier status in the subsequent decade. In addition, outlier status of a physician's medical school in the decade before his or her graduation is predictive of that physician's malpractice claims experience (p<0.01). All correlations of cohorts were relatively high and all were statistically significant at p<0.001. Comparison of outlier and non-outlier schools showed that some differences exist in school ownership (p<0.05), years since established (p<0.05), and mean number of residents and fellows (p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Consistent differences in malpractice experience exist among medical schools. Further research exploring alternative explanations for these differences needs to be conducted.

Education, Medical↗

Performance of neuroradiologic examinations by nonradiologists.

PURPOSE: To determine the level of participation by nonradiologists in performing neuroradiologic examinations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Medicare part B claims data from fiscal year 1992 were analyzed for CPT (current procedural terminology) codes related to computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR) imaging of the brain, head and neck, and spine, as well as myelography, angiography, and diskography. Data were tabulated by place of service (hospital-based vs freestanding imaging centers) and by medical specialty. RESULTS: Among 363,224 Medicare claims for CT and MR imaging of the brain, head and neck, and spine, 91% of the examinations were performed in hospitals and 9% in offices or freestanding centers; 98% of studies were interpreted by a radiologist. The largest share of radiology billing by nonradiologists was from office-based or freestanding imaging centers (9%), versus 2% at hospital-based facilities. CONCLUSION: Radiologists perform the vast majority of neuroradiologic examinations. Most neuroradiologic examinations performed by nonradiologists are from neurologists at freestanding/office-based imaging centers.

Angiography↗