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Population studies on Oncomelania quadrasi, the snail intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum, in the Philippines. I. Distribution pattern of the snail in the field.

Distribution of Oncomelania quadrasi, the snail intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum, was studied in Leyte, Philippines for the type of distribution based upon a large number of survey data. Among four distribution models examined, three uneven distribution models, i.e., the double Poisson, Neyman type A and negative binomial fitted well in this order but the Poisson model showed the poorest fitness. This indicates that the snails are distributed unevenly over the field and that the population mostly consists of small clusters of individual snails. Elucidation of the snail distribution pattern is necessary for determination of sample size in snail survey and for data transformation in significance test of the snail density comparison.

Animals↗

Probabilistic secretion of quanta from visualized sympathetic nerve varicosities in mouse vas deferens.

1. Sympathetic varicosities on the surface of smooth muscle cells of the mouse vas deferens were visualized with the fluorescent dye 3-3 Diethyloxardicarbocyanine iodide (DiOC2(5)) and quantal secretion recorded from these with both small diameter (4-6 microns) and large diameter (20-50 microns) microelectrodes. Small diameter electrodes were placed over one to three varicosities and large diameter electrodes over three to seven varicosities. 2. The size and distribution of varicosities along individual terminal branches was about the same when these were fluoresced with DiOC2(5) (length 1.09 +/- 0.40 microns (mean +/- S.D.); intervaricosity distance 5.53 +/- 2.68 microns) as when they were stained for catecholamines using Faglu fluorescence (length 1.05 +/- 0.43 microns; intervaricosity distance 5.12 +/- 2.79 microns) suggesting that DiOC2(5) does allow for identification of the catecholamine-containing varicosities. 3. The spontaneous excitatory junctional currents (EJCs) recorded from visualized varicosities with small diameter electrodes (amplitudes 59-67 microV) were much larger than those recorded with large diameter electrodes (amplitudes 25-29 microV). The frequency of evoked EJCs as well as the amplitude-frequency distribution of these EJCs varied greatly between sets of visualized varicosities recorded along individual branches, either with a small or large diameter electrode. These amplitude-frequency distributions typically followed Poisson statistics, in which the mean quantal content of the EJC (m) varied by over threefold for different sets of varicosities on the same branch (m was 0.07-0.21 for small electrodes whereas m was 1-3 for large electrodes). 4. Although m varied considerably for a constant number of varicosities beneath the electrode at different sites along a single branch, there was an overall correlation between m and the number of varicosities, m increasing on average 0.25 for each additional varicosity in a [Ca2+]o of 4.0 mM. 5. The frequency of evoked EJCs at visualized sets of varicosities along some branches was sufficiently high to allow binomial statistics to predict the amplitude-frequency distributions of evoked EJCs. In these cases m was again shown to vary considerably along single terminal branches, and this was primarily due to variation in the probability of secretion (p) between sets of varicosities and not to variation in binomial parameter n. 6. In one case a relatively isolated varicosity, over 3 microns from adjacent varicosities, was recorded for 30 min with a 4 microns diameter electrode. The mean and variance of the evoked EJC was similar to that of the spontaneous EJCs suggesting that this varicosity secreted at most one quantum on arrival of the nerve impulse.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Adrenergic Fibers↗

Effects of violating local independence on IRT parameter estimation for the Binomial Trials Model.

The appropriateness of the Binomial Trials Model for test data that consist of multiple attempts of the same item needs to be determined because the presence of learning or fatigue effects may violate the model's assumption of local independence. The purpose of this study was to determine what effect the severity of the violation of local independence (VLI), coupled with different sample size (SS), test length (TL), and test difficulty (TD) had on the estimation of the model difficulty parameter, b, using computer simulation techniques. Each of the following conditions was replicated 100 times under a completely crossed design: SS (100, 200, 500, 2,000); TL (5, 10, 20, 25 attempts); TD (-1.2, 0.0, 1.2); and VLI (from no violation to complete violation). Examinee ability or latent trait was pseudorandomly drawn from a standard normal distribution, and the b-parameter was estimated using a maximum likelihood procedure on generated test scores. Regardless of SS, TL, and TD, the b-parameter tended to be overestimated for situations in which the VLI condition simulated fatigue and underestimated when the VLI condition simulated late-test learning or practice effect. The findings suggest that violations of local independence, at least as simulated in this study, could seriously bias the difficulty parameter estimates if all examinees tested exhibited the dependency.

Bias↗

Architectural distribution of foliage in individual Pinus radiata D. Don crowns and the effects of clumping on radiation interception.

The architectural arrangement and leaf area of representative branch units, on one branch complex from each cluster on the stem, were measured on six trees in a widely spaced 7-year-old Pinus radiata D. Don plantation. There was a linear relationship between leaf area and the basal area of branch complexes. Assuming similarity in the arrangement of branch units within concomitant branch complexes at each cluster, the 3-dimensional distribution of leaf area density (leaf area per unit volume) in an array of cubic cells, each 10(-3) m(3), comprising the volume of each tree crown, was reconstructed. The fraction of cells in which foliage was present varied from 0.08 to 0.23 in the crowns with the highest (Tree 4) and lowest (Tree 3) degree of clumping, respectively. This difference was related to the number, length, and leaf area per unit length of Order 3 branch units, in particular. The actual distributions of leaf area density were used with a simple radiative transfer model to estimate the probability of penetration of beam and diffuse photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) through individual tree crowns. The average probability of beam penetration was greater for the tree with the most clumped foliage than for the tree with the least clumped foliage. For both trees, the average probabilities of penetration were greater than the values that would have resulted if a random distribution of foliage had been assumed. The negative binomial model was used to estimate an index of foliage dispersion for the tree crowns. For beam PAR, the index of foliage dispersion was 3.3 and 2.3 for the trees with the most, and the least clumped foliage, respectively. These results were supported by analysis of the architectural arrangement of foliage in the tree crowns. For two days in summer, the assumption that leaf area density was randomly distributed would have resulted in a 20 to 30% overestimation of intercepted PAR flux by the tree crowns.

Journal Article↗

Life history and population biology of adult Acanthocephalus lucii (Acanthocephala: Echinorhynchidae).

The life history and population biology of adult A. lucii in perch, Perca fluviatilis L., from the Forth and Clyde canal, Scotland, was investigated during May 1979-September 1981. There was an annual cycle in the size of the parasite population; prevalence and abundance (+/- SE) were highest during late spring and summer (70-90% and 14 +/- 4.3 to 16 +/- 5.6 worms/fish, respectively) but declined during late autumn and reached a minimum during winter (50-60% and 2.1 +/- 0.9 to 3.2 +/- 0.6 worms/fish). Parasite maturation was associated with higher water temperatures during spring and summer and most shelled acanthors were probably produced during summer and fall. There was only 1 generation of A. lucii per year, although generations tended to overlap and individuals within each generation did not develop synchronously. The sex ratio of adults was initially near unity but favoured females in the later stages of the infection. The distribution of A. lucii among perch was highly aggregated and stomach content analysis suggested that this was partly due to heterogeneity in perch feeding behaviour. The negative binomial and Poisson lognormal models fitted the data on worm distribution. Seasonal changes in the degree of parasite aggregation were detected, but no conclusive evidence of density-dependent controls on parasite population growth was obtained.

Acanthocephala↗

On determination of sample size in hierarchical binomial models.

We consider a two- and a three-stage hierarchical design containing the effects of k clusters with n units per cluster. In the two-stage model, the conditional distribution of the discrete response Y(i) is assumed to be independent binomial with mean n(straight theta)i (I=1,....k). The success probabilities, straight theta(i)'s, are assumed exchangeable across the k clusters, each arising from a beta distribution. In the three-stage model, the parameters in the beta distribution are assumed to have independent gamma distributions. The size of each cluster, n, is determined for functions of straight theta(i). Lengths of central posterior intervals are computed for various functions of the straight theta(i)'s using Markov chain Monte Carlo and Monte Carlo simulations. Several prior distributions are characterized and tables are provided for n with given k. Methods for sample size calculations under the two- and three-stage models are illustrated and compared for the design of a multi-institutional study to evaluate the appropriateness of discharge planning rates for a cohort of patients with congestive heart failure.

Clinical Trials as Topic↗

Studies on oviposition characteristics of Mansonia (Mansonioides) mosquitoes in southern Thailand.

Oviposition characteristics of Mansonia (Mansonioides) mosquitoes were studied to assess future possibilities for their control. Special emphasis was given to the study of the factors, especially the host plant species, which guide the gravid females towards the oviposition site. Initially, egg dispersal throughout the breeding place was assessed by comparing egg densities between so-called areas of 100-200 m2, each characterized by reasonable homogeneity in its flora. Some of these areas were preferred by gravid females, indicating an aggregative type of distribution. There was no evidence that the attractiveness of areas was correlated with the availability of preferred host plants. Egg dispersal within areas was then studied using randomly chosen plots of 1 X 1 m or 15 X 15 cm as sampling units. This again revealed aggregative egg distributions which could be fitted to a negative binomial expectation. The amount of visible water surface, rather than the availability of host plants, appeared to determine the attractiveness of the plots. The dispersal within 1 m2 experimental plots containing the host plants Pistia, Eichhornia and Salvinia was then investigated and this showed clearly that specific levels of attractiveness of plant species influenced egg dispersal. These levels were modified by (i) the presence of grasses in the immediate surroundings, (ii) features of grass growth and (iii) the type of host plant arrangement. It was concluded that the factors responsible for egg aggregations vary with the size of the samples compared, and that the host plant species plays a significant role only for the distribution within quite small units of the breeding place.

Animals↗

Myxosoma funduli Kudo 1918 (Protozoa: Myxosporida) in Fundulus kansae: summer epizootiology.

The occurrence and distribution of the myxosporida Myxosoma funduli on the gills of the plains killifish (Fundulus kansae) were investigated; Fundulus kansae is reported as a new host. Host samples from various sites on the South Platte River, Nebraska, were collected during the summer months of 1975 and 1976. The protozoan parasite population was shown to be overdispersed within the host population, and this distribution was similar to that described by the negative binomial equation. Demographic characteristics of the infected fish subpopulation were virtually identical to those of the whole fish population. Infection intensity was independent of gill bar number or side. The frequency of bilateral infections was 0.54, of left only infections was 0.23, and of right only infections was 0.22. Distribution of immature and mature plasmodia indicated that a pre-existing infection did not preclude a new infection, and suggested a prepatent period of less than two months.

Animals↗

Experimental verification of overdispersion in radioassay data.

New evidence is provided suggesting that radioassay data are frequently overdispersed with respect to the Poisson distribution. Twelve cases of radioassay data were measured using commonly available detection systems. The data were analyzed using a limited version of the overdispersion model developed earlier. In that limit, the relationships between three overdispersed distributions were derived and discussed: beta-Poisson, negative binomial, and overdispersed Gaussian. Out of a total of 13 cases studied (12 measured plus one from the literature), 4 were consistent with the Poisson statistics at 90% confidence level while the remaining 9 were found overdispersed. This shows that the overdispersion is rather prevalent in radioassay. All three overdispersed distributions fitted the data very well. The overdispersion was attributed mostly to the excess fluctuations of the detection systems or, in 2 cases, sequential radioactive decay.

Models, Statistical↗

Neighbourhood income and anxiety: a study based on random samples of the Swedish population.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have investigated the association between the neighbourhood characteristics and the vast panorama of mental disorders. This study examined whether there is an association between neighbourhood income and anxiety, a common mental disorder. METHODS: A national random sample of the entire Swedish population was used, consisting of 30 884 men and women aged 25-64 years. The sample was obtained from pooled data during the period 1995-2002 from the Swedish Annual Level of Living Survey. Small area market statistics were used in order to define neighbourhoods. The proportion of individuals with incomes in the lowest national income quartile was calculated for each neighbourhood. The distribution was then divided into quartiles. A log binomial model was applied in the estimation of prevalence ratios. Four models were calculated with stepwise inclusion of the variables. Model 4 was adjusted for all the individual variables, i.e. age, gender, marital status, immigrant status, social network, housing tenure, employment status, and income. RESULTS: In neighbourhoods with the highest proportions of individuals with low income the prevalence ratio of anxiety was 1.33 (95% confidence interval 1.24-1.42). The association demonstrated between neighbourhood income and anxiety decreased after stepwise inclusion of the individual variables and disappeared after all the individual variables were accounted for. CONCLUSION: Compositional explanations, rather than contextual explanations, lie behind the association between neighbourhood income and anxiety, a common mental disorder. However, we do not exclude the possibility that there is a contextual effect on severe mental disorders or among children with behavioural problems.

Adult↗

A variance components approach to categorical data models with heterogeneous cell populations: analysis of spatial gradients in lung cancer mortality rates in North Carolina counties.

A mixed categorical-continuous variable model is proposed for the analysis of mortality rates. This model differs from other available models, such as weighted least squares and loglinear models, in that the within-cell populations are assumed to be heterogeneous in their levels of mortality risk. Heterogeneity implies that, in addition to the sampling variance considered in other available models, there will be a second component of variance due solely to within-cell heterogeneity. Maximum likelihood procedures are presented for the estimation of the model parameters. These procedures are based on the assumption that the distribution function for each cell death count is the negative binomial probability function. This assumption is shown to be equivalent to assuming a mixture of Poisson processes with the differential risk levels among individuals within each cell being governed by a two-parameter gamma distribution. The model is applied to data on lung cancer mortality for 1970-1975 for the 100 counties of North Carolina. The analysis shows that, though a gradient in lung cancer mortality rates exist in space, the gradient is restricted to specific demographic categories identified by race, age and sex.

Adult↗

Single local interneurons in the locust make central synapses with different properties of transmitter release on distinct postsynaptic neurons.

Quantal analysis has been applied to the inhibitory synapses made by single spiking local interneurons onto several nonspiking local interneurons (and motorneurons) in the locust CNS. Transmission at these synapses appears to be mediated by GABA. The apparent reversal potential of the IPSP and inhibitory postsynaptic current were -80 to -85 mV, a value similar to that of the potential evoked by pressure-applied GABA. This reversal potential was 25-30 mV more negative than the resting potential of the nonspiking interneurons in the experimental conditions. The statistical properties of release at these synapses were studied by recording simultaneously from pre- and postsynaptic interneurons with intracellular electrodes. The distribution of postsynaptic potential amplitudes could be described by a simple binomial model, implying uniformity of binomial p (probability of release at a single release site) for each synapse. The mean quantal amplitude was 290 +/- 110 microV, and the mean quantal content m of the IPSPs was 6.25 +/- 2.83. The mean values of binomial n (average size of the releasable pool) and p were 13.11 +/- 2.8 and 0.45 +/- 0.16, respectively. Numerical simulations of statistical experiments were performed to test whether the IPSP amplitude distribution histograms might be misleadingly indicative of quantal release. These simulations showed that such a hypothesis was very unlikely. When a spiking local interneuron was impaled, several of its target interneurons could sometimes be successively sampled. Quantal analysis was then performed with the different IPSPs evoked, in identical conditions, by a same presynaptic interneuron, and the quantal parameters were compared between the synapses. It was found that binomials n and p and their product m generally differed between the synapses made by a given spiking interneuron onto different target neurons. These results show that quantal contents can vary for the many synapses made centrally by one interneuron, and suggest that this variability may arise from differences in release probabilities between the sites associated with different synapses.

Animals↗

A statistical analysis of the release of acetylcholine at newly formed synapses in striated muscle.

1. A statistical analysis has been made of the changes in the binomial parameters n and p during transmitter release from motor-nerve terminals when synapses are forming in either regenerating or reinnervated mammalian muscle.2. The amplitude-frequency distribution of e.p.p.s evoked by a single impulse was well predicted by binomial statistics at all junctions analysed allowing values of n and p to be determined. At most of these junctions, p > 0.5 and Poisson statistics did not predict the observed distributions at all.3. During the changes in quantal content which occur during short trains of impulses or during continual stimulation over minutes, no significant change in p was detected. Changes in quantal content of the e.p.p. were therefore determined by n.

Acetylcholine↗

A score test for testing a zero-inflated Poisson regression model against zero-inflated negative binomial alternatives.

Count data often show a higher incidence of zero counts than would be expected if the data were Poisson distributed. Zero-inflated Poisson regression models are a useful class of models for such data, but parameter estimates may be seriously biased if the nonzero counts are overdispersed in relation to the Poisson distribution. We therefore provide a score test for testing zero-inflated Poisson regression models against zero-inflated negative binomial alternatives.

Animals↗

Sutural bone frequency in synostotic rabbit crania.

This study tests the hypothesis that crania with synostosed sutures will have a significantly higher incidence of calvarial sutural bones than normal crania. Sutural bones were counted in seven calvarial sutures and compared among four groups of adult New Zealand white rabbit skulls: normal in-colony (NI) controls (N = 14), normal out-colony (NO) controls (N = 12), skulls with familial delayed onset (DO) coronal synostosis (N = 25), and skulls with experimentally immobilized coronal sutures (EI) (N = 20). Comparisons among groups were made with a Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA and between groups with a Mann-Whitney U-test, using a Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. Significant differences (P < 0.05) were noted only in the coronal and sagittal sutures, with EI crania having the greatest number of coronal sutural bones; between group differences were undetectable for sagittal sutural bones. A post hoc two-sample binomial test for equal proportions showed that the distribution of coronal sutural bones among individuals across groups was even, while the distribution of sagittal sutural bones was significantly higher in EI crania. These results suggest that altered sutural forces of the calvaria contribute to an increased occurrence of sutural bones. However, the influence of inheritance on increased occurrence of sutural bones cannot be discounted, as reflected in the equivalent number of individuals across groups that possessed coronal sutural bones.

Analysis of Variance↗

Joint symmetry in early and late rheumatoid and psoriatic arthritis: comparison with a mathematical model.

OBJECTIVE: To establish a mathematical model to predict the probability of symmetry of joint involvement as a function of the number of joints involved and to compare expected with actual probabilities in psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and in early and late disease. METHODS: Random involvement of joints was assumed, and the binomial theorem was used to give the frequency distribution of involved joints as a function of each joint count. Ten joint pairs were included: shoulder, elbow, wrist, metacarpophalangeal joints, proximal interphalangeal (PIP) joints of the hands, hip, knee, ankle, metatarsophalangeal joints, and PIP joints of the feet. Observed probabilities were obtained from subjects with early (duration < or =12 months) and late PsA and RA. RESULTS: The number of subjects in each of the disease subgroups was as follows: early PsA n = 33, late PsA n = 77, early RA n = 61, late RA n = 93. Observed probabilities of symmetry exceeded predicted probabilities for all disease subgroups. The median number of involved joints in each group was as follows: early PsA 4, late PsA 8, early RA 8, late RA 15 (chi2 = 95.3, 3 degrees of freedom, P = 0.0001, by Kruskal-Wallis test). After correcting for the discrepancy in the number of involved joints, no difference in joint symmetry was found between the groups (chi2 = 1.77, P = 0.62 by Friedman two-way analysis of variance). Similar results were obtained when individual hand and foot joints were analyzed separately. CONCLUSION: The pattern of joint involvement is often used to distinguish between rheumatoid and psoriatic arthritis. This study confirms that symmetry is largely a function of the total number of joints involved and that, in terms of joint pattern, differences between these disorders are more quantitative than qualitative. Both disorders have high absolute values of symmetry, particularly in the joints of the wrist and hand.

Adolescent↗

Fisher information matrix of the Dirichlet-multinomial distribution.

In this paper we derive explicit expressions for the elements of the exact Fisher information matrix of the Dirichlet-multinomial distribution. We show that exact calculation is based on the beta-binomial probability function rather than that of the Dirichlet-multinomial and this makes the exact calculation quite easy. The exact results are expected to be useful for the calculation of standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates of the beta-binomial parameters and those of the Dirichlet-multinomial parameters for data that arise in practice in toxicology and other similar fields. Standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates of the beta-binomial parameters and those of the Dirichlet-multinomial parameters, based on the exact and the asymptotic Fisher information matrix based on the Dirichlet distribution, are obtained for a set of data from Haseman and Soares (1976), a dataset from Mosimann (1962) and a more recent dataset from Chen, Kodell, Howe and Gaylor (1991). There is substantial difference between the standard errors of the estimates based on the exact Fisher information matrix and those based on the asymptotic Fisher information matrix.

Abnormalities, Drug-Induced↗

Unicorns or Tiger Woods: are lie detection experts myths or rarities? A response to on lie detection "wizards" by Bond and Uysal.

Bond and Uysal (this issue) complain that expert lie detectors identified by O'Sullivan and Ekman (2004) are statistical flukes. They ignore one class of experts we have identified and misrepresent the procedures we use to identify the others. They also question the psychometric validity of the measures and protocol used. Many of their points are addressed in the chapter they criticize. The fruitfulness of the O'Sullivan-Ekman protocol is illustrated with respect to improved identification of expert lie detectors, as well as a replicated pattern of errors made by experts from different professional groups. The statistical arguments offered confuse the theoretical use of the binomial with the empirical use of the normal distribution. Data are provided that may clarify this distinction.

Deception↗