Birth control and declining birth rates: the Bulgarian experience.
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"Cross-sectional and longitudinal variations in rates of intergroup marriage [in the United States] have often been used as indicators of assimilation for minority groups. This article demonstrates that both types of comparisons can give misleading results when census data are used for calculating intermarriage rates without restrictions. Census data include immigrants who married abroad (IMAs) in the enumeration. The inclusion of these individuals in the study of intermarriage inevitably biases the level of minority inmarriage upward, making cross-sectional and longitudinal comparisons of intermarriage rates for groups with different levels of IMAs inappropriate. Cumulation of IMAs also inflates the inmarriage rates of older cohorts, leading to a misimpression of increasing outmarriage among younger cohorts. These problems are illustrated for several Asian groups using 1980 Public Use Microdata Sample data for California. Alternative approaches for remedying the problem are proposed and their different implications for assimilation theory and research are discussed."
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The author examines the new forms of consensual union that are becoming increasingly prevalent in Europe and their detrimental effects on the reproduction of generations and socialization. "Using data from the sociological study conducted by the Institute of Sociology of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences in 1977 and the data obtained in the latest population census in 1985, the development of the Bulgarian family and influence of [these] new social relations under socialism are investigated." Particular attention is given to trends in marriage and divorce rates. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)
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"The present paper attempts to study the levels, trends and determinants of female age at marriage during 1961-81 in Orissa [India] at district level by residential background.... The result shows...a considerable increase in female age at marriage in each of the two successive decades, 1961-71 and 1971-81.... The variable percentage of female workforce in [the] non-agricultural sector seems to be [a] strong determinant of female age at marriage in Orissa." Data are from the 1961, 1971, and 1981 Indian censuses.
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"This article investigates the levels, trends and differentials in infant and child mortality in West Sumatra [Indonesia]. The results of this study, based on the 1971, 1980 Population Censuses and the 1985 Intercensal Population Survey confirm a trend toward lower infant and child mortality in West Sumatra over the last two decades. The estimates also show that there are considerable urban-rural differentials in childhood mortality. In general, babies born in urban areas have a lower mortality rate than those born in rural areas. The study also shows that education, age at first marriage, occupation, and literacy level of the mother have significant effect on the child mortality differentials." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
"This chapter presents a smooth estimator of the hazard rate using a variable-span running loglinear specification that allows investigators to maintain only mild assumptions about the functional forms of population heterogeneity and time inhomogeneity in the rate. This estimator is useful both in exploratory data analyses (EDA) and in checking parametric assumptions. Examples drawn from data on the transition to first marriage for women in the U.S. show that several common parametric assumptions are violated in these data and illustrate that the smoothed hazard estimator can yield important insights not easily obtained from more conventional methods."
"We introduce a class of local hazard models that maintain parametric assumptions locally rather than globally. These models allow estimation of a flexible baseline hazard rate and nonproportional covariate effects. Recently developed local likelihood methods, which generalize maximum likelihood methods, can be used to estimate these models. We illustrate these techniques by estimating two local hazard models of first marriage--a local exponential model and a local Gompertz model--from data in the June 1980 [U.S.] Current Population Survey. We also compare results of the local hazard models with those of Cox's model, an exponential model, a piecewise exponential model, and a piecewise Gompertz model. Estimates for the local exponential and local Gompertz models agree closely with nonparametric estimates for various subgroups. Moreover, results of the local models provide interesting substantive insights into the process of first marriage that are not easily obtained from global models."
Life table data for the Netherlands are presented by marital status, age, and sex for four Dutch cohorts: never married, married, divorced, and widowed. "The numbers of survivors in each marital status are computed using sex, age and marital status specific rates...." Consideration is given to nonmarital fertility; average ages at first marriage, divorce, and remarriage; life expectancy at birth; and average age at death by sex and marital status. (SUMMARY IN ENG)
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