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PubMed1999

Geriatric demographics and the practice of otolaryngology.

Changing demographic trends in our country will have a profound influence on the future practice of otolaryngology. As a result of declining birth rates and increasing lifespans, the geriatric population has already become the fastest-growing segment of our society, and it will continue to be so for decades to come. A larger percentage of patients treated by otolaryngologists will be in the over-65 age group. It will become important to confront not only the medical treatment of this segment of the population, but also the socioeconomic effects of these demographic changes. Familiarity with the terminology, concepts, and statistics of demography is key to understanding the influence that the aging of the population will have on the practice of otolaryngology.

Adult↗
PubMed1999

Assessment of cattle owner's perceptions and expectations, and identification of constraints on production in a peri-urban, resource-poor environment.

This questionnaire survey was conducted amongst 200 farmers in the resource-poor, urban and per-urban environments of Botshabelo and Thaba Nchu towns in the Free State Province of South Africa. The questionnaire was divided into seven sections, namely demography, livestock, cattle, parasites, parasite control, livestock diseases and problems experienced. A total of 87.5% of the livestock owners were not employed (unemployed or pensioner). Cattle constituted more than 50% of the live-stock units owned in the area and farmers owned an average of 9.33 +/- 0.812 head of cattle. A total of 193 (96.5%) of the farmers indicated that milk was the most important product from their cattle. Only 26% of them slaughtered their own cattle for meat consumption. Eighty-eight percent of them indicated that external parasites on their livestock presented a problem, but only 72.9% of farmers implemented any tick control measures. Less than half (45.5%) of the farmers who attempted to control ticks used commercial acaricides. The remainder used various other methods, including the application of used engine oil and household detergents. Amongst the clinical diseases observed in their cattle, dry gallsickness was mentioned most often (20%). This figure, however, is believed to be inaccurate because dry gallsickness may be a clinical manifestation of some of the other diseases mentioned by the farmers, such as anaplasmosis, foreign body obstruction of the gastro-intestinal tract by plastic bags, pneumonia and mastitis. Animal husbandry problems experienced by the farmers included pollution (i.e. ingestion of plastic bags and string by their livestock), availability of water and theft.

Agriculture↗
PubMed1999

[Socio-demographic and life-style factors in a Swiss study of HIV non-progression].

OBJECTIVES: The study investigates associations between socio-demographic or lifestyle factors and the progression of HIV. METHODS: We recruited a Swiss cohort (n = 56) of long-term survivors and conducted a cross-sectional study of laboratory data as well as factors concerning socio-demography, life-style, and psychology. On the basis of laboratory results, the cohort was divided into 2 subgroups, non-progressors (n = 31) and slow progressors (n = 25), which were subsequently compared. RESULTS: The comparison of socio-demographic factors showed that non-progressors were younger and had a higher income than slow progressors. Our data do not show an association between lifestyle and disease progression. DISCUSSION: Younger age as a cofactor of non-progression confirms various other studies. The association between income and disease progression, also found in another cohort, cannot be explained by unequal access to therapies since, in accordance with the inclusion criteria, no one in our cohort had received antiretroviral therapies. Further research in this field seems important to determine possible links between socio-economic status and disease progression. The lack of association between disease progression and lifestyle factors such as drug use, physical activity or nutrition is in contrast to a common view of HIV in our study population, but is confirmed by a majority of the research in this field.

Adult↗
PubMed1999

[Power generation and ecology: socio-economic collision].

The authors make analysis of the socio-economic collision between power generation and ecology. Russia enters the world market in the period of global and local ecological ill-being. The following eight dimensions of the problem have been reviewed: uncontrolled growth of population, limited earth resources, life standards and ecological crisis, national/ecological interests and power safety, eco- and power regionalism, religion and ethnoses (demography and energy reserves), eco-sitting of power installations, sanitary guidelines and standards and the reality.

Demography↗
PubMed1999

Landscape and history: a multidisciplinary approach. Project Group Environmental History (P.G.E.H.).

Human societies have inhabited parts of the Central European country of Austria for thousands of years. The development process shopping the landscape by this long period of human impact remains poorly understood. The present study is an attempt to research landscape history on a local scale and compares an alpine, pre-alpine and midland-village area in Austria. We have developed an appropriate concept to describe the landscape ecology features of the study areas in several stages of the past from 1733 on. The landscape analysis is based on the interpretation of different kinds of historical data (e.g., documents, maps) going back to the pre-industrial epoch, which has--at least in terms of landscape ecology--hardly been accessible until now. An important aim of the study is to localize the historical information in the landscape. Individual plots can be traced back even to the early 14th century. Based on the quality of the available historical data, the historical landscape is analysed with regard to categories such as form and intensity of land use, distribution of nutrients and water as well as the pattern of landscape elements and their ecological functions. The comparison of present stages with former ones yields detailed knowledge on the dynamics and stability of landscape structure. This approach allows present-day land units to be identified as a result of long-term development going back to Medieval times. The primary aim of the study is to analyze factors that bring about change or resist it by creating stability. We therefore examine factors coupling landscape structure, agricultural production and population development. For this reason, we have studied the people and the evidence for their labor over a period of 400 years (1400-1800). Besides demographic data of the 18th and 19th century, historical registrar material has been collected; it enabled the land tenures to be reconstructed from the 15th to the 19th century. This type of data is a valuable source of information for investigating the socio-economic status of a local population or its farmsteads. The collected data reveal similarities in trends between time series of demography, land holding stability and landscape ecology features. A theoretical model shows how population, production and natural resources are connected in the investigated pre-modern communities.

Agriculture↗
PubMed1976

Life tables as "predictors" of average longevity.

Selected figures from Canadian life tables have been analysed to illustrate one potential use of routinely collected and published data. A plea is made for the inclusion of the fundamentals of demography in undergraduate medical education.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

The demographic situation in the European Union.

This article draws selected material from the annual Yearbook on Demography (2000 edition) published by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Some key comparisons with other regions of the world are included, together with a broad picture of the demographic situation in the European Union. Topic coverage is selective.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1997

[Order of mortality, duration of life and annuities in Johann Peter Süssmilch's Göttliche Ordnung].

The government of Providence builds the order which pastor Süssmilch sees in the demographic events and especially the order of mortality. God governs the length of human life and assigns to each person a just balance between fear of death and expectation of life. This authorizes Süssmilch to clarify the notions of probable life and life expectancy with the design to treat of their main application in the field of political arithmetic, that is the computations of Government loans under the form of annuities on lives. So he treats of an important question which concerns the history of actuarial calculation as well as the history of probability, of statistics and demography. We cannot forget also the political and philosophical points of view which the pastor underlines vividly: what sort of contract joins the creature and his God? This study of the contingent but optimal regularities which Providence makes in the world builds an important contribution to the physico-theological current.

Actuarial Analysis↗
PubMed1985

[Tempo and parity structure of Japanese fertility].

The present study is part of a larger project on the formal demographic analysis of Japanese fertility. It deals with the most elusive aspect of fertility, that is the tempo of fertility. The temporal aspect of fertility, particularly in terms of cohort fertility framework with speical reference to parity of women, has been emphasized by Whelpton and Ryder, but in the Japanese demography there have scarcely been studies of this aspect, probably due to lack of interest. In very recent years, however, interest has grown, reflecting the need for more accurate fertility projections in the future in connection with population projections. The present study is an application of life table techniques to explore the temporal aspect of fertility in Japan. 2 methods have been used. One is the age-marriage-parity specific net reproduction rate tables, which were first constructed by the senior author of this paper. The other is by Professor Chin Long Chiang at the University of California, Berkely. In the application of the former type, net reproduction rate tables were constructed for 3 dates -- 1970-71, 1975-76, and 1980-81. Through this method, it was demonstrated that recent fertility for the period 1980-81 was reduced, partly because of the decline in fertility in live-birth order of 1 and 2 among the relatively young ages up to 25 years old. On the other hand, for the ages up to 30 years old, some catching-up mechanisms took place. The 2nd method is by Chiang's new approach to the fertility table. According to his method, which was included in his new book entitled Life Tables and Its Applications, parity-oriented fertility tables have been constructed for the Japanese females for every year from 1971 through 1983, both inclusive. In these cases, denominator is for year z while numerator is concerned with yea z + 1. This method is particularly interesting since it can calculate waiting time for childbearing until the completion of family formation. Some of the findings indicated: 1) recent increases in both parity progession ratio and parity-specific fertility rate in low parity augur a future increase in fertility in the period measure in the near future; and 2) a shortening of the waiting time until the completion of family formation around 1981 and then the recovery of its lengthening in the years 1982 and 1983 suggest a recent trend of lengthening actual reproductive period which definitely contributes to an increase in fertility.

Asia↗
PubMed1994

Stochastic population forecasts for the United States: beyond high, medium, and low.

"This article presents and implements a new method for making stochastic population forecasts that provide consistent probability intervals. We blend mathematical demography and statistical time series methods to estimate stochastic models of fertility and mortality based on U.S. data back to 1900 and then use the theory of random-matrix products to forecast various demographic measures and their associated probability intervals to the year 2065. Our expected total population sizes agree quite closely with the Census medium projections, and our 95 percent probability intervals are close to the Census high and low scenarios. But Census intervals in 2065 for ages 65+ are nearly three times as broad as ours, and for 85+ are nearly twice as broad. In contrast, our intervals for the total dependency and youth dependency ratios are more than twice as broad as theirs, and our ratio for the elderly dependency ratio is 12 times as great as theirs. These items have major implications for policy, and these contrasting indications of uncertainty clearly show the limitations of the conventional scenario-based methods."

Age Factors↗
PubMed1996

Fertility of populations as a function of the attained level of life expectancy in the course of human evolution.

"¿Aging societies' with increasing life expectancies of the average of all their members are facts in modern history that are disputed by nobody. What is disputed by the most renowned names in demography, however, is that aging populations are a consequence of the fall in mortality and thus the increase in life expectancy. It is claimed that the [principal] reason for ¿aging' is to be found in a drop in fertility. In this sense today's demographers regard as a standard result: ¿Variations in fertility are of more significance for the age structure of populations than variations in mortality'. In the following paper this thesis, which is based on a neo-Malthusian interpretation of the role of fertility in the demographic process, will be questioned."

Birth Rate↗
PubMed1976

Research on the consequences of adolescent pregnancy and childbearing.

In this request for proposal (RFP) we are requesting research on the social, psychological, and economic consequences of adolescent fertility as they may be measured with available data. Proposals that include the collection of original data would not be responsive to the requirements of the RFP. Consequences may refer to the woman involved, the child, the man or father, the families of those involved, or society in general. Clarification of the determinants of adolescent pregnancy and childbearing will be sought through other requests for proposals. Proposals are sought from a variety of disciplines: sociology, demography, psychology, anthropology, and others concerned with human development and family and social welfare. The RFP was issued on January 15, 1976. The closing date for receipt of proposals submitted under the RFP will be March 5, 1976. Only those sources which have been technically evaluated as qualified will be requested to submit proposals. Copies of the RFP may be obtained by sending a written request to Mack Bell, Contracting Officer, Contracts Management Section, Office of Grants and Contracts, National Institute of Child Health and Development, Landow Building, Room C-625, Bethesda, Maryland 20014.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Population growth in Algeria, 1966-1977, with some comparisons from Tunisia.

"The first results of the delayed 1977 census of Algeria permit an up-dated analysis of national and regional trends in its population geography. After considering several basic parameters of Algeria's population as revealed by the census, this article focusses firstly on the high population growth rate and reviews the limited approach to family planning taken by the government. Comparisons with Tunisia, with its more active population policy, suggest a divergence between the demographies of the two countries. Regional population growth is then examined."

Africa↗
PubMed1983

Migration and settlement: a multiregional comparative study.

"In 1976, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis initiated a study of migration and population distribution patterns in its seventeen member nations. In each country, the analysis was carried out by national scholars using techniques of multiregional demography. In this paper the authors describe the organization of the study, discuss the data bases used, evaluate the main results obtained, and review some of the methodological research that has been generated by the study. Among the...conclusions are recommendations for researchers wishing to carry out a multiregional demographic analysis." Consideration is given to national and subnational patterns of mortality, fertility, and migration; age composition; and regional population distribution.

Age Distribution↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Computerized family reconstitution on a large data-base: the SOREP system].

This article outlines a new system for computerized family reconstitution. It has been developed in the last 10 years by a multidisciplinary team of Quebec researchers belonging to the Inter-University Research Center on Populations (SOREP). Basically, this system is characterized by 1) an attempt to computerize as much as possible every step involved in the process of reconstitution, 2) a set of tools devised for identifying and measuring all forms and degrees of similarity between names and surnames, 3) a technique to process cases of ambiguous links, 4) a set of programs used to assess the quality of the data and the strength of the links created, and 5) an attempt to maximize the performance of the linkage work in terms of both efficiency and accuracy. The system has been designed to support several kinds of analyses, from social history and demography to population genetics. The paper contains a brief overview of the current state of research in the field record linkage, an introduction to the Saguenay population register, and a description of the system itself which has utilized sucessfully in the last year on the 660,000 Saguenay parish records, covering the period 1842-1971.

Americas↗
PubMed1989

Demographic and budgetary influence on the geography of the poll tax: alarm or false alarm?

"The paper examines the influence of demographic change and the adaptation of local authority budgets on the level of poll tax between local authorities. The changes introduced by the Local Government Finance Act [in the United Kingdom] are argued to make almost all the possible variation between areas depend upon demography and local decisions on expenditure. Means of assessing local expenditure need are outlined and a consistent measure is developed which is used to estimate the relative contributions of changing need, tax base, new expenditures and grants over the period 1974-85 and up to 1991. 'New realism' in local authority spending is argued to combine with demographic change to allow radically reduced potential poll tax levies to be estimated than have been forecast by other sources. The reductions are particularly significant in inner London and many metropolitan districts."

Demography↗
PubMed1989

Heterogeneous risk models.

"This paper briefly reviews the heterogeneous risk models in demography. With a specific model, it is shown that in a heterogeneous population, the marginal hazard need not be monotonic. Procedures described in the literature to recover individual hazards from marginal hazards without precise knowledge of structural parameters can lead to biased results. Strategies of parameter estimation and testing are discussed. The results are extended to [the] multistate life table."

Biology↗
PubMed1990

[Theories of demographic transition: toward a certain convergence?].

"The aim of this paper is to present, in their points of convergence and opposition, the main theoretical currents which have arisen around the concept of demographic transition in its application to Third World countries. Four currents are identified: structural functionalism, culturalism, Marxism and feminism. The authors identify two main trends in recent debates surrounding the question of transition in demography: on the one hand, convergence of macro-structural approaches and, on the other, greater opposition between the latter and those which favor cultural factors." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA)

Communism↗