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PubMed1992

Risk factors related to the 7-year prognosis for patients suspected of myocardial infarction with and without confirmed diagnosis.

This study prospectively evaluates the long-term prognosis of patients admitted with chest pain under suspicion of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) with and without confirmed diagnosis. All patients below 76 years of age, free of other severe diseases and alive at discharge, who were admitted to a coronary care unit of a well-defined region during 1 year, constituted the study population. In all, 275 patients with and 257 patients without confirmed AMI (non-AMI) were included. During 7 years of follow-up, 122 cardiac events (96 cardiac deaths and 26 nonfatal AMI) occurred in the AMI patients, and 69 (44 cardiac deaths and 25 nonfatal AMI) were observed in the non-AMI patients. Using univariate analysis, the following risk variables were significantly related to an impaired prognosis of non-AMI patients: age, a history of previous AMI, angina pectoris, clinical heart failure, diabetes and ST or T changes in the electrocardiogram (ECG) on admission. By multivariate analysis, the following risk factors contained independent prognostic information for non-AMI patients: (1) a history of angina pectoris and (2) ST and T changes on the ECG on admission. We conclude that a subset of non-AMI patients at high risk for cardiac events even in the long term can be identified from the medical history and the ECG on admission. These patients should be carefully evaluated prior to discharge, whereas patients without signs of ischemic heart disease have an excellent prognosis.

Aged↗
PubMed1994

Long-term prognosis after a first myocardial infarction in Turkey: determinants of mortality and reinfarction.

Long-term prognosis of a first myocardial infarction and factors associated with late cardiac mortality and reinfarction were studied in 718 survivors. Patients have been followed up for 1-10 years (mean 57.6 +/- 39.6 months). None of the patients underwent coronary bypass surgery in the follow-up period. Cumulative mortality rates were 8.6% in the first year, 17.9% in 3 years, 26.4% in 5 years and 36.5% in 10 years. The type and site of myocardial infarction (Q-wave versus non-Q-wave and anterior versus infero-posterior) were found to have no independent prognostic importance. The cardiac mortality was best predicted by the occurrence of congestive heart failure in the coronary care unit. Other determinants of late outcome were the presence of ventricular arrhythmias, left bundle branch block, and the occurrence of stable or unstable angina pectoris or reinfarction during the follow-up period. Usage of antiplatelet or anticoagulant drugs was not found to affect mortality. Reinfarction rates were 4, 9.9, 15.5 and 28% in 1, 3, 5 and 10 years, respectively, and no relation was found between the type and location of myocardial infarction and reinfarction rate. Reinfarction was higher in patients receiving anticoagulants and in patients with postmyocardial infarction angina. Our findings suggest that the prognosis of patients with a first acute myocardial infarction in Turkey is not different from that in Western populations and factors influencing prognosis are similar to those previously reported.

Female↗
PubMed1989

Easy and early prognosis in acute tubular necrosis: a forward analysis of 228 cases.

Multiple factors still influence the high rate of mortality in acute tubular necrosis. Trying to analyze the influence of each risk factor present in an individual patient and the possible interdependence between these factors, as well as to obtain an early prognosis, we have applied a forward analysis to demographic data, acute renal failure origin, need of dialysis, diuresis and clinical conditions in 228 patients, using a multiple linear regression model contained in a computer package. Based on this approach we have found that three variables: deep neurological coma, persistent blood hypotension and assisted respiration have significant influence on mortality. Also, a regression equation was obtained which could be applied as a discriminant score to patient prognosis. This score, calculated with the three aforementioned variables and oliguria when the nephrologist sees the patient for the first time, allows an easy and early prognosis in each patient with acute tubular necrosis.

Acute Kidney Injury↗
PubMed1991

Medium- and long-term prognosis of patients with acute poststreptococcal glomerulonephritis.

The prognosis of acute poststreptococcal glomerulonephritis (APSGN) is still a matter of considerable debate. In an attempt to elucidate this controversy, the medium-term prognosis was evaluated in 40 patients 5-9 years after the onset of the disease, and the long-term prognosis in 88 patients 10-17 years after the onset of the disease. All were sporadic cases. In the medium-term follow-up study, abnormalities were revealed in 5.0% (2/40) of the patients. Hypertension and proteinuria were the only abnormalities detected. In the long-term follow-up study, abnormalities were revealed in 6.8% (6/88) of the patients. Hypertension was found in 3.4, proteinuria in 2.3, and microhaematuria in 2.3% of the patients. In both studies, all patients had normal creatinine clearance. We conclude that the medium- and long-term outcome of patients with APSGN is excellent.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed1993

Prognosis of acute tubular necrosis: an extended prospectively contrasted study.

The ability to predict the outcome in acute tubular necrosis (ATN) remains elusive despite considerable efforts. Accurate prediction is a crucial priority and has large economical and ethical implications, mainly to judge when treatment is futile and further efforts only prolong miserable agony. To analyze the influence of risk factors in the prognosis of ATN, we applied, in an initial phase, a prospective protocol of demographic data, cause of renal failure, diuresis, need of dialysis and clinical conditions in 228 patients using multiple linear and logistic regression models. In a control phase with 100 consecutive patients, we checked the accuracy of the results previously obtained, evaluating further the overall population of 328 patients in a synthetic phase. Finally, the validation of the equations obtained was verified in 25 patients from another hospital. As a complement of this 4-phase study, detailed statistical comparisons between both linear and logistic multiple regression models were undertaken. Correlation between probability of death obtained with equations from the initial phase applied to control patients and real evolution of these patients, survival or death, was excellent. The study of the synthetic phase revealed coma, assisted respiration, hypotension, oliguria and jaundice as having an independent positive influence on mortality and nephrotoxic etiology and normal consciousness on good prognosis. For the linear model, the same cut-off point of discriminant score (0.9) above which there were no chances for survival could be established in the 4 phases. With the logistic model, it only was found at later phases. The multiple linear was better than the logistic regression model in terms of better correlation with real mortality, better sensitivity and specificity intervals, easier use of discriminant cut-off point and better adjustment of distribution of standardized residuals to expected normal function. Early prognosis of ATN is possible and can be given using simple clinical features. A discriminant score allows to distinguish patients without chances for survival. The multiple linear is better than the logistic regression model in the prediction of the outcome in ATN.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed1996

Are the pulmonary function tests and the markers of activity helpful to establish the prognosis of sarcoidosis?

The prognosis of sarcoidosis is difficult to establish. It depends mainly on the persistence of activity over time and the degree of functional impairment of the involved organs. The aim of this study was to analyze whether the pulmonary function tests and the more commonly used markers of activity, such as serum angiotensin-converting enzyme (SACE) and gallium-67 scan, are helpful to evaluate the prognosis of sarcoidosis, besides the clinical data. Over a 14-year period (1974-1987), 209 patients were diagnosed as having sarcoidosis at the Bellvitge Hospital, a 1,000-bed teaching hospital in Barcelona, Spain. Clinical, radiological, pulmonary function tests, and activity markers (SACE and gallium-67 scan) data at diagnosis were collected and classified as variables, and a definition of disease activity was established. One hundred sixteen patients were on follow-up, had all the variables available and were included in the statistical analysis. A Cox proportional-hazard regression model identified the following variables as independently influencing the persistence of activity over time: absence of erythema nodosum [risk ratio (RR) = 2.78; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.48-5.18], age > or = 40 years (RR = 1.67; 95% CI: 1.008-1.04), SACE level > or = mean + 2 SD U/ml (RR = 1.45; CI: 0.99-1.07), hyperglobulinemia (RR = 2.47; CI: 0.98-6.24), forced vital capacity < 80% predicted (RR = 2.17; CI: 0.97-4.85), and male sex (RR = 1.8; CI: 0.95-3.45). We conclude that the pulmonary function tests and the SACE level but not the gallium scan are helpful to identify the factors predicting persistence of activity in sarcoidosis. Therefore, we recommend to add these tests to the initial clinical evaluation of patients with sarcoidosis in order to establish the prognosis and improve the therapeutic approach.

Adult↗
PubMed1996

Acute-phase plasma proteins in gastric cancer: association with metastatic potential and prognosis.

We evaluated the possibility that acute-phase plasma proteins such as alpha 1-antichymotrypsin (ACT) and immunosuppressive acidic protein (IAP) might be useful predictors of lymph node metastasis and prognosis in patients with gastric cancer. Both ACT and IAP levels generally increased according to the pTNM stage. Patients with both abnormal IAP and ACT levels showed a high risk of lymphatic and hepatic metastasis as well as peritoneal dissemination, with a resultant poor prognosis. Patients who had abnormal IAP levels with or without abnormal ACT levels had a significantly higher risk of lymph node metastasis, as well as more invasive tumors and a worse prognosis than those who had normal IAP levels with or without abnormal ACT levels. In combination group 4 [IAP(+) ACT(-) vs. IAP(-) ACT(+)] lymphatic metastasis was seen more often with isolated IAP(+) (76.4%) than with ACT(+) (52.9%) (p < 0.0045), especially in the subgroup of poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma (POR; p < 0.0177). However, this does not demonstrate that ACT(+) is a protective factor against lymphatic invasion, because the results of combination group 6 [IAP(-) ACT(+) vs. IAP(-) ACT(-)] show that isolated ACT(+) is also significantly related to lymphatic metastasis (p < 0.001). The same is true for the subgroup of signet ring cell carcinomas (p = 0.038), but it has not been tested versus the POR subgroup.

Acute-Phase Proteins↗
PubMed1983

Routine clinical chemistries as improved determinates of prognosis for patients with metastatic cancer of the stomach.

Pretreatment total serum protein of less than 6 g%, serum glumatic oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) greater than 40 mU/ml or a total serum bilirubin greater than 0.6 mg% predicted a bad prognosis for patients with metastatic gastric cancer. If two of these objective laboratory tests predicted a good prognosis, partially nonambulatory patients lived an additional 20 weeks (median survival 27.9 vs 8.7, p less than 0.001) and patients with no clinically recognized liver metastases lived an additional 22 weeks (median survival 34.2 vs. 12.4, p less than 0.001). Patients with liver metastases lived an additional 11 weeks (median survival 20.9 vs. 9.6, p less than 0.001). These objective laboratory tests improve the assessment of patients in clinical trials. The model corrected a false assessment of a poor prognosis for 38% of all patients and 64% of patients with liver metastases.

Antineoplastic Agents↗
PubMed1991

Prognosis in paranoid disorders and mortality in reactive psychoses.

The present paper shows that the short-term prognosis of patients with paranoid disorders hospitalized nowadays is poor for the majority. The best prognosis is attached to patients with affective or other not specified psychotic disorders. Socio-vocational variables at the time of first admission contain more predictive value than clinical variables. The term reactive psychosis as a term with good prognosis is questioned and the findings of a mortality study are presented in support of this view when concerned with hospital populations.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1994

Psychosocial self-prognosis in relation to mortality and morbidity in hemophiliacs with HIV infection.

HIV-infected hemophiliacs participated in a psychosocial prognosis study. The Coping Wheel was filled out 1-2 years after the subjects had been told that they were HIV-infected and between 1 and 7 years after they had become infected. The number of significant signs of disease as well as mortality were recorded during the years following the psychosocial measurements. These measures were related to three measures of anticipated future activities derived from the Coping Wheel, namely 'number of activities for oneself', 'number of activities with others' and a combined measure 'number of activities for oneself in relation to number of activities with others'. The results indicated that the subject's own psychosocial prognosis added to the prediction of mortality. The most important psychosocial factor was the combined measure: those with few anticipated activities for oneself in relation to activities with others had a greater likelihood of dying soon during follow-up. The latter prediction was true even after adjustment for age and condition of the immune system (CD4 count) at the start of follow-up. The conclusion is that the Coping Wheel, applied as in the present examination, may be of help in prognosis and in identifying psychosocial needs in patients with HIV infection.

Adaptation, Psychological↗
PubMed1988

Short-term tissue culture of prostatic carcinoma samples provides useful biological parameters related to patient prognosis.

In order to identify new data to be able to better evaluate patient prognosis in prostatic carcinoma (PRCA), we started a study 6 years ago correlating in vitro parameters from human PRCA samples grown in tissue culture with histological diagnosis of the same tumors [Eur. Urol. 11: 330-333, 1985]. The original study has been extended with more cases and updated with follow-up of the patients. To date, we evaluated 51 specimens of PRCA (18 grade I, 19 grade II, 13 grade III and 1 grade IV) and 8 of benign prostatic hypertrophy. Tissue samples were cultured in medium DME plus 10% fetal calf serum, 10% horse serum and 50 ng/ml each of hydrocortisone and insulin. Epithelial cells grown from the explants showed an average life in culture and morphological and biochemical features in good correlation with tumor grade. Short cultural life span, regular growth and positive secretion activity are typical of low-grade tumors, meanwhile the opposite is true for high-grade tumors. Of these patients, 15 were evaluable for prognosis, because they died or because they were followed-up for at least 3 years. In this group we compared tissue culture data with survival and found a fairly good correlation between growth parameters and clinical outcome of each case. Although more cases are needed to provide statistical significance to the results, the data we collected seem to indicate that low-grade tumors susceptible of poorer prognosis can be identified by a short-term tissue culture showing morphological atypias and long average life span. This method may be easily reproduced in any hospital equipped with a tissue culture unit.

Carcinoma↗
PubMed2001

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy caused by a novel alpha-tropomyosin mutation (V95A) is associated with mild cardiac phenotype, abnormal calcium binding to troponin, abnormal myosin cycling, and poor prognosis.

BACKGROUND: We report hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) in a Spanish-American family caused by a novel alpha-tropomyosin (TPM1) mutation and examine the pathogenesis of the clinical disease by characterizing functional defects in the purified mutant protein. METHODS AND RESULTS: HCM was linked to the TPM1 gene (logarithm of the odds [LOD] score 3.17). Sequencing and restriction digestion analysis demonstrated a TPM1 mutation V95A that cosegregated with HCM. The mutation has been associated with 13 deaths in 26 affected members (11 sudden deaths and 2 related to heart failure), with a cumulative survival rate of 73+/-10% at the age of 40 years. Left ventricular wall thickness (mean 16+/-6 mm) and disease penetrance (53%) were similar to those for the ss-myosin mutations L908V and G256E previously associated with a benign prognosis. Left ventricular hypertrophy was milder than with the ss-myosin mutation R403Q, but the prognosis was similarly poor. With the use of recombinant tropomyosins, we identified several functional alterations at the protein level. The mutation caused a 40% to 50% increase in calcium affinity in regulated thin filament-myosin subfragment-1 (S1) MgATPase assays, a 20% decrease in MgATPase rates in the presence of saturating calcium, a 5% decrease in unloaded shortening velocity in in vitro motility assays, and no change in cooperative myosin S1 binding to regulated thin filaments. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to other reported TPM1 mutations, V95A-associated HCM exhibits unusual features of mild phenotype but poor prognosis. Both myosin cycling and calcium binding to troponin are abnormal in the presence of the mutant tropomyosin. The genetic diagnosis afforded by this mutation will be valuable in the management of HCM.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

Improving trial power through use of prognosis-adjusted end points.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The stroke patient population is heterogeneous, leading to wide variation in outcome caused by differences in age, initial severity, and presence of concomitant disease. Setting an identical recovery target for all patients in intervention trials may conceal individually important therapeutic treatment effects. Instead, a variable end point that takes severity or likely prognosis into account may be more informative. METHODS: We used data from the Glycine Antagonist in Neuroprotection (GAIN) International trial to assess statistical power of various primary end points for intervention trials. We selected prognosis-adjusted cut points based on Barthel Index (BI) or Rankin Scale (RS) using a prognostic model, or assigned a fixed end point within subgroups of patients defined by their Oxford category or National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score. We simulated a treatment effect and estimated statistical power with standard formulae. RESULTS: Assignment of end points using a prognostic model for individual patients increased statistical power, when compared with assigning end points using only the Oxford classification. For the BI, power was increased from 60% to 88% (equivalent to a 49% reduction in sample size if power remains unchanged). With the RS end points, power was increased from 84% to 92% (or a 24% reduction in sample size). Versus a fixed end point for all patients, model-based methods increased power by 22 percentage points for BI> or =95 and 14 percentage points for RS< or =1 (effective sample size reductions 43% and 34%). CONCLUSIONS: Prognosis-adjusted end points can increase statistical power compared with fixed end points. Assessment is based on realistic goals for individual patients and yet trial results remain generalizable.

Age Factors↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Internal carotid occlusion: volume of cerebral infarction, clinical findings, and prognosis.

Clinical, angiographic and computed tomographic (CT) findings, and the volume of an infarcted area as estimated from tomograms, were evaluated in 26 patients with proven, unilateral, internal carotid artery (ICA) occlusion. The volume of cerebral infarction (CI) ranged from 0 cm3 to 200 cm3. It was shown that the CI volume in the group of patients with good collateral flow was smaller than that in the group with poor or no collaterals (p less than 0.05). It was also found that the smaller the volume of infarcted area, the better the patient's ability to carry out activities of daily living (ADL). The volume of infarction in patients without disturbance of consciousness was smaller than in patients with such disturbance. Thirteen of 15 patients with infarction of less than 50 cm3 eventually showed good ADL. The patients with a deeply located infarction had a good prognosis and no disturbance of consciousness. In patients with superficial infarction there were relationship between the volume of infarction and prognosis, and between the volume and disturbance of consciousness. It is concluded that estimation of the volume of an infarcted area is important in assessing the clinical state and prognosis in patients with ICA occlusion.

Adult↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Factors affecting the prognosis in thalamic hemorrhage.

The present study deals with the factors affecting the prognosis in the acute stage of 29 cases with hypertensive thalamic hemorrhage diagnosed by CT scan. It was thought that the following factors were significantly related to the outcome of the patients who were unable to lead daily life, remained in vegetative state or died: (1) consciousness level was below 10 in the so-called 3-3-9 formula, (2) bilateral Babinski's signs were observed, (3) localization of the hematoma was all the thalamic nuclei type, (4) hematoma volume was above 10 ml, (5) the maximum dimension of hematoma was over 30 or 35 mm, maximum width over 30 mm, maximum length over 25 mm and maximum height over 30 or 40 mm, and (6) the ventricles were dilatated. The prognosis had no significant relationship with the age of the patients, the side of the hematoma, the presence or the absence of ventricular penetration of the hematoma, or the existence of midline shift. We believe that in the acute stage of hypertensive thalamic hemorrhage, the prognosis can be forecasted by neurological findings, accurate calculation of the hematoma volume and size, localization of the hematoma and presence or absence of ventricular dilatation as determined by CT scan.

Activities of Daily Living↗
PubMed1991

A methodological appraisal of research on prognosis after transient ischemic attacks.

We analyzed existing research on the prognosis of patients who have had a transient ischemic attack to identify studies that adhere to basic methodological principles and to identify underinvestigated questions. Studies were eligible for analysis if they were published in peer-reviewed journals after 1950, written in English, and included at least 50 patients with transient ischemia. Studies that included patients with stroke were included only if they reported outcome rates separately for the subgroup of patients with transient ischemia. All eligible studies were extracted by one investigator who recorded adherence to six key methodological principles. Among 60 eligible studies, 54 were observational cohort studies and six were randomized trials. Adherence to the six methodological principles was as follows: eight studies included an adequate description of diagnostic criteria and of procedures used to assure adherence to the criteria, 54 used appropriate end points, two assembled inception cohorts, 10 included an adequate description of end point surveillance, 22 adequately reported and analyzed censored patients, and 10 included a multivariate analysis for predictive variables. No study adhered to all six principles, but two adhered to the three most important ones (appropriate end points, inception cohort, and adequate reporting and analysis of censored patients). Aspects of prognosis after transient ischemia that have not been completely investigated include the severity of subsequent strokes and methods for estimating the outcome risk for individual patients. We conclude that only a few published investigations on prognosis after transient ischemia are methodologically complete. This finding helps explain why it is difficult to interpret many studies. Further research is needed and should target underinvestigated topics.

Cohort Studies↗
PubMed1992

Leukoaraiosis in relation to prognosis for patients with lacunar infarction.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Close relations between leukoaraiosis detected by computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging and stroke, particularly lacunar infarction, have been reported. We studied whether leukoaraiosis is related to long-term prognosis for patients with lacunar infarction. METHODS: We examined monthly 215 patients with lacunar infarction after their first stroke. They comprised 95 patients with leukoaraiosis disclosed by computed tomography on admission (58 men and 37 women; mean age, 71.3 +/- 9.0 years) and 120 patients without leukoaraiosis (81 men and 39 women; mean age, 65.5 +/- 8.9 years). These patients had no previous history of either stroke or obvious dementia before their index stroke. We compared the prognosis with and without leukoaraiosis based on analysis of recurrent stroke, survival, and the prevalence of dementia and rate of dependence in activities of daily living. RESULTS: Life table analysis revealed that the recurrent stroke rate was significantly higher in the patients with leukoaraiosis than in those without it (p = 0.004). The prevalence of dementia and rate of dependence in activities of daily living both 1 month after the index stroke and at the end of the follow-up period were significantly higher in the patients with leukoaraiosis (all parameters, P less than 0.001). Their survival rate was significantly lower than in those not suffering from leukoaraiosis (p = 0.012). Significant differences in these comparisons were also observed after matching for age and sex. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of leukoaraiosis as identified by computed tomography indicates a poor prognosis for patients with lacunar infarction.

Activities of Daily Living↗
PubMed1992

Long-term prognosis of infratentorial transient ischemic attacks and minor strokes.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study was performed to gather information about long-term prognosis after infratentorial transient ischemic attacks and minor strokes and about the factors influencing it. METHODS: We included 226 patients with transient ischemia and 169 patients with a minor stroke of the brain stem/cerebellum consecutively admitted to a neurological department. Medical records and the findings of computed tomography, Doppler ultrasonography, and angiography were evaluated retrospectively. Follow-up information was gathered from the patients and their physicians by questionnaires. Complete follow-up information was available for 381 patients. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 3.9 years, 15.7% of the 381 patients suffered a stroke and 6.8% a myocardial infarction; 15% died. Kaplan-Meier estimates revealed a cumulative stroke rate of 5.1% within the first year and a risk of stroke, myocardial infarction, or death of any cause of 9.8%. In a proportional hazards model, the time-dependent risk of stroke was significantly increased by increasing age (p = 0.018), minor stroke (p = 0.0005), hypertension (p = 0.022), previous stroke (p = 0.0006), and carotid artery occlusive disease (p = 0.0065). The probability of stroke, myocardial infarction, or death was influenced by age (p = 0.0001), minor stroke (p = 0.006), diabetes (p = 0.015), previous stroke (p = 0.002), infarct on a computed tomogram (p = 0.041), and carotid artery disease (p = 0.032). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term prognosis after brain stem/cerebellar transient ischemic attacks and minor strokes is significantly influenced by age, diabetes, hypertension, previous stroke, and concomitant carotid artery disease. Patients with transient ischemic attacks have a better prognosis than those with minor stroke.

Cerebellum↗