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[Sensitivity analysis in ecological modeling].

Sensitivity analysis is used to qualitatively or quantitatively apportion the variation of model output to different source of variation. It is a very useful tool in model parameterization and calibration, and has important ecological significance by identifying the governing factors for a certain ecological process simulated. There are two schools of sensitivity analysis, local sensitivity analysis and global sensitivity analysis. The former examines the local response of the output(s) by varying input parameters one at a time, holding other parameters to a central value; and the latter examines the global response (averaged over the variation of all the parameters) of model output(s) by exploring a finite (or even an infinite) region. Since it is very easy to conduct local sensitivity analysis, it is very popular in ecological models. However, local sensitivity analysis is not computationally effective, because it can only get the sensitivity of a single parameter at a time. It can not take into consideration the effect of interaction of different parameters. Additionally, the value of other parameters will affect the sensitivity of the parameter specified. In view of this, global sensitivity analysis is increasingly preferred to local sensitivity in recent years. However, for most of the ecological modeling study published in Chinese, only local sensitivity analysis is conducted. To provide a toolbox of alternative sensitivity analysis algorithms for ecological model development in future study, we reviewed the main methods of both local sensitivity analysis and global sensitivity analysis, including one at a time method, multivariate regression, Morris' method, Sobol's method, Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Analysis, and Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Analysis. Based on the state-of-the-art research on sensitivity analysis, the sensitivity of the interaction between two or more than two model parameters, the sensitivity of common model parameters in a set of models, and the sensitivity analysis in spatially explicit landscape model simulation were identified as the key areas and difficulties of future study on sensitivity analysis in ecological modeling.

Ecology↗

Early-life nutritional environment and spatial navigation in the water shrew, Sorex palustris (Insectivora).

Studies were conducted to study the effects of early-life nutritional environment on spatial navigation ability in the water shrew (Sorex palustris), as well as to provide information on life history traits and husbandry. The mean longevity of males and females in captivity was 652.3 +/- 33.8 SD and 616.2 +/- 22.5 days, respectively. Litter sizes ranged from 5 to 8 and neonatal mass ranged from 0.71 to 0.83 g. Spatial navigation was examined by use of the Morris water apparatus, where animals were required to locate the position of an escape platform in a circular tank of water. The platform was visible (proximal cue version of the task) in some tests. In other tests it was hidden beneath the surface (distal cue version) by making the water opaque using a non-toxic white dye. The tank was divided into 4 quadrants and the position of the plafform in any quadrant could be fixed for any subject or varied between subjects. Early-life under-nutrition was achieved by maintaining some shrews on a restricted diet (received half the amount of food as did controls). Under-nutrition was found to have an adverse effect on spatial navigation. Regardless of nutritional status, shrews were able to locate a hidden plafform that was placed at the center of a given quadrant more rapidly (escape latency) when it was visible (44 to 69 sec) than when it was hidden (83 to 164 sec). Results also showed that these shrews utilize both proximal and distal cues in this spatial task. Control subjects spent more time at a location where the platform had been in a previous test (69% of the trial period) than their undernourished counterparts (45 to 51%). This is the first experimental analysis of spatial navigation and the effects of early-life under-nutrition on this task, for S. palustris.

Analysis of Variance↗

Critical problems in spatial vision.

In recent years the study of spatial vision seems to have come almost full circle. Localized stimuli (such as lines, bars, and edges) were abandoned in favor of textured patterns (such as sinusoidal gratings), a trend that was accelerated by the discovery that gratings of sufficiently different spatial frequencies or orientations (stimuli localized in the Fourier domain) were detected independently. This led to various attempts to model form vision in terms of spatial frequency analysis. More recently there has been a shift toward models that include, once again, the local aspects of spatial processing; this trend is more consistent with both retinal and cortical physiology. (Still surviving is the notion of a complete set of orthonormal basis functions, but not sinusoidal ones.) Other important developments include attempts to model spatiotemporal interaction, and the discovery that spatial processing takes on an entirely different character in the absence of any temporal variation (i.e., when the retinal image is stabilized). We attempt to trace these developments in terms of a selected group of representative studies, which we examine in some depth.

Biomedical Engineering↗

Bicycle accidents among children in the urban environment.

We studied all bicycling accidents requiring hospital visits among children 15 years of age and less, occurring on the Island of Montreal over an 18-month period. Data collected from 11 major Montreal hospitals and police accident reports were examined using various statistical methods: visual representation (a comparative accident index), spatial (quadrat analysis), and a comparative environmental analysis (differentiation of means). The results suggest that these accidents are not distributed randomly but correspond to a particular spatial pattern. High-risk areas are characterized by high population density, fast and dense vehicular traffic, and the absence of parks. Accidents usually take place on two-way streets, on straight stretches far from traffic lights, on dry pavement, and during clear weather when the visibility is good. More boys than girls are involved in these accidents and, more often than not, failure to obey traffic regulations is involved. The socio-economic status of the injured child tends to be low.

Accidents, Traffic↗

Seed gene flow and fine-scale structure in a Mediterranean pine ( Pinus pinaster Ait.) using nuclear microsatellite markers.

The Mediterranean populations of maritime pine ( Pinus pinaster Ait.) are typically small and have a scattered distribution, being threatened by human activities and forest fires. In the framework of the genetic-resources conservation program of this species, a native multi-age stand located in a Mediterranean area (central Spain) was studied using three highly polymorphic nuclear microsatellites (SSRs). Spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted using Moran's index in order to detect fine-scale structure in both natural regeneration and mature trees. The spatial pattern of seed flow based on dispersed progeny was studied using a highly reliable subset of parent-offspring matches obtained by means of parentage analysis and simulation-based calculation of statistical confidence. Maritime pine showed a fine-scale structure at the seedling stage. In natural regeneration, the autocorrelograms indicated a patch size of approximately 10 m. The fine-scale structure seems to be produced by a restricted seed gene flow. In fact, there was an excess of parent-offspring matches in a radius of 15 m from the parent trees. Pines with a heavy seed, such as P. pinaster, are expected to have a short dispersal distance, thus producing a fine-scale structure. However, the fine-scale structure did not persist in the mature trees. Within-population genetic structure in Mediterranean pines may be affected by a number of post-dispersal events (e.g. mortality due to the severity of the Mediterranean climate and animal-mediated secondary dispersal during the summer period). Thus, great alteration in the pattern produced by the initial seed rain and differences in genetic structure between tree cohorts are expected.

Journal Article↗

Analytical evidence of amorphous microdomains within nitridosilicate and nitridoaluminosilicate single crystals.

Single crystals of new nitridosilicates and nitridoaluminosilicates with excellent R values in X-ray investigations were analysed quantitatively using 30 to 60 microm single-spot LA-ICP-MS. Significant discrepancies between expected and measured chemical composition could not be explained by the crystallographic data. High spatial resolution analysis using electron probe microanalysis (EPMA, 10 microm) leads to the discovery of inhomogeneities in the crystalline material. The application of standard single-spot LA-ICP-MS with a spatial resolution of 30 to 60 microm is not suitable for the analysis of these crystals as the existing inhomogeneities dominate and alter the determined concentrations. However, owing to the better detection capabilities, a scanning LA-ICP-MS procedure enables a more representative analysis of single crystals of Ca(5)Si(2)Al(2)N(8) than single-spot LA-ICP-MS as a result of a larger sampling volume. It is highly likely that these impurities consist of amorphous, vitreous phases as powder diffraction X-ray data indicates the existence of a significant fraction of an X-ray amorphous material besides crystalline silicates. These microdomains contain less aluminium, silicon and calcium or are nearly free of aluminium, which explains the detected discrepancies in the chemical composition.

Journal Article↗

The spatial structure of migration: an analysis of flows between states in the USA over three decades.

"Migration flows between states in the [United States] over three decades are analysed using a general spatial interaction model. The role of geographic distance and a more general distance conception are examined, as is the stability of the spatial structure over time. Results imply that although migration structures reflect geographic distance, other stable factors, reflecting idiosyncratic ties between locations, are important as well. This suggests that the common practice in migration research of ignoring spatial structure to focus on individual locations is misleading. The particular ties between locations cannot be ignored in examining total migration at a location at one point in time. In examining changes over time, however, we can limit consideration to the relative draw and sending effects at each location because the spatial structure is quite stable over extended periods." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND GER)

Americas↗

Energy and spatial distribution of multiple order Compton scatter in SPECT: a Monte Carlo investigation.

Energy and spatial projection distributions were simulated for gamma camera imaging of multiple order Compton scattered photons. SPECT imaging of a line source of radioactivity located in a water filled cylindrical phantom was modelled using Monte Carlo techniques. Photon trajectories were followed from emission to detection including the effects of all physical interactions and the resulting energy spectra and spatial projections were sorted as a function of the number of times the photon underwent Compton scattering before detection. Analysis of energy spectra demonstrates that Compton events up to second order overlap with the non-scattered events and distributions are peaked at lower energies as the scattering order increases. Analysis of spatial projections shows that, with increasing order, Compton events produce tails on the line spread function which progress from roughly exponential to nearly flat distributions. The use of Monte Carlo modelling thus allows a detailed investigation of the spatial and energy distribution of Compton scatter which could not be performed using present experimental techniques.

Models, Theoretical↗

Fine-scale spatial genetic correlation analyses reveal strong female philopatry within a brush-tailed rock-wallaby colony in southeast Queensland.

We combine spatial data on home ranges of individuals and microsatellite markers to examine patterns of fine-scale spatial genetic structure and dispersal within a brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) colony at Hurdle Creek Valley, Queensland. Brush-tailed rock-wallabies were once abundant and widespread throughout the rocky terrain of southeastern Australia; however, populations are nearly extinct in the south of their range and in decline elsewhere. We use pairwise relatedness measures and a recent multilocus spatial autocorrelation analysis to test the hypotheses that in this species, within-colony dispersal is male-biased and that female philopatry results in spatial clusters of related females within the colony. We provide clear evidence for strong female philopatry and male-biased dispersal within this rock-wallaby colony. There was a strong, significant negative correlation between pairwise relatedness and geographical distance of individual females along only 800 m of cliff line. Spatial genetic autocorrelation analyses showed significant positive correlation for females in close proximity to each other and revealed a genetic neighbourhood size of only 600 m for females. Our study is the first to report on the fine-scale spatial genetic structure within a rock-wallaby colony and we provide the first robust evidence for strong female philopatry and spatial clustering of related females within this taxon. We discuss the ecological and conservation implications of our findings for rock-wallabies, as well as the importance of fine-scale spatial genetic patterns in studies of dispersal behaviour.

Animals↗

Simulation of spatial fuel assay using HANARO neutron beam

A sensitivity simulation of neutron tomography was performed for the analysis of the spatial distribution of nuclear materials in the HANARO fuel rod. The internal distribution of the nuclear materials in the fuel rod is very important for the increase of the safety and economics of fuel burnup in the reactor. The neutron radiography facility installed at HANARO will be used for the spatial fuel analysis with a real-time image processing system. Monte Carlo simulation was performed to study the feasibility and sensitivity of the HANARO neutron beam for the spatial fuel assay and to find the optimum conditions for neutron detection. From the sensitivity simulation, the location of the nuclear materials in the rod was evident as expected.

Journal Article↗

Spatially resolved x-ray spectroscopy investigation of femtosecond laser irradiated Ar clusters.

High temperature plasmas have been created by irradiating Ar clusters with high intensity 60-fs laser pulses. Detailed spectroscopic analysis of spatially resolved, high resolution x-ray data near the He(alpha) line of Ar is consistent with a two-temperature collisional-radiative model incorporating the effects of highly energetic electrons. The results of the spectral analysis are compared with a theoretical hydrodynamic model of cluster production, as well as interferometric data. The plasma parameters are notably uniform over one Rayleigh length (600 microm).

Journal Article↗

Learning impairment induced by lesion of the CA1 field of the primate hippocampus: attempts to ameliorate the impairment by transplantation of fetal CA1 tissue.

Monkeys with bilateral excitotoxic lesion of the CA1 field of the hippocampus were severely impaired at learning visuospatial conditional tasks. This was not a general spatial impairment, because the animals were not impaired on serial spatial reversal, which requires response flexibility in the spatial domain; they were not impaired at learning to choose the position furthest away from a single stimulus, which requires analysis of spatial layout of the test area, and they were not impaired at discriminating between two patterns that differed only in orientation. CA1-lesioned monkeys were impaired at learning a visuospatial conditional task when trials of the two component types "if AA go left" and "if BB go right" were presented according to either a pseudorandom or alternating schedule; but they were not impaired if one component type of trial was presented until three consecutive correct responses were made, followed by the other type of trial, to three consecutive correct responses. In all cases testing continued until a criterion of 27 of 30 consecutive correct responses across both types of trial was achieved. Although this suggests that CA1-lesioned animals are particularly prone to interference effects, they had no difficulty in learning ten concurrent visual discriminations presented against either a uniform background or with each discrimination presented against its own distinctive background, a condition that might reduce interference in unoperated monkeys. Interference following hippocampal damage might occur at a deeper level than stimulus identification such that animals with hippocampal damage may be able to learn about many aspects of different stimuli in parallel but may be unable to learn about multiple related aspects of the same subject matter. Monkeys with grafts of fetal CA1 tissue in the lesioned CA1 field showed significant improvement relative to CA1-lesioned animals on those tasks on which CA1-lesioned animals were impaired, although they remained impaired relative to control animals. This suggests that the grafts had produced some improvement in performance. Grafted monkeys did not differ from unoperated control monkeys or from CA1-lesioned monkeys on those tasks that were not sensitive to CA1 damage. This demonstrates that the grafts did not have an additional deleterious effect on cognitive performance.

Animals↗

Spatial heterogeneity and the persistence of infectious diseases.

The endemic persistence of infectious diseases can often not be understood without taking into account the relevant heterogeneities of host mixing. Here, we consider spatial heterogeneity, defined as 'patchiness' of the host population. After briefly reviewing how disease persistence is influenced by population size, reproduction number and infectious period, we explore its dependence on the level of spatial heterogeneity. Analysis and simulation of disease transmission in a symmetric meta-population suggest that disease persistence typically becomes worse as spatial heterogeneity increases, although local persistence optima can occur for infections with oscillatory population dynamics. We obtain insight into the dynamics that underlie the observed persistence patterns by studying the infection prevalence correlation between patches and by comparing full-model simulations to results obtained using simplified patch-level descriptions of the interplay between local extinctions and between-patch transmissions. The observed patterns are interpreted in terms of rescue effects for strong spatial heterogeneity and in terms of between-patch coherence and synchronization effects at intermediate and weak levels of heterogeneity.

Communicable Diseases↗

Genetic stratification of pathogen-response-related and other variants within a homogeneous Caucasian Irish population.

Selection pressures from pathogens impact on the worldwide geographic distribution of polymorphisms in certain pathogen-response-associated genes. Such gene-specific effects could lead to confounding by geographic disease associations. We wished to determine if such constraints impinge on the genetic structure of a population of Irish patients and whether variants associated with responses to pathogens showed greater stratification. The counties of origin of each subject's grandparents were used as the geographic variable. F(st), proportional to the extent of population structure, was low (mean F(st)=0.004 across 25 SNPs, range 0.001-0.008) and it was not significantly higher for pathogen response SNPs (F(st)=0.004) than for other SNPs (F(st)=0.003, P=0.21). Correspondence analysis revealed weak trends primarily in approximately northeast to southwest and secondarily in northwest to southeast directions. One-dimensional spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed a weak (Moran's I autocorrelation of -0.10) tendency for SNP frequencies to diverge with greater distance. Two-dimensional autocorrelation indicated a northeast to southwest gradient that was similar for both the pathogen response and other SNPs. The southeastern county, Wexford, showed a distinctive pattern, perhaps consistent with Anglo-Norman settlements. In conclusion, these results indicate that pathogen response SNPs do not exhibit significantly more population structure than other SNPs within this Caucasian population. This suggests that the specific population structure of particular genes may not typically be a cause of strong confounding in genetic studies where population structure is controlled.

Arylsulfotransferase↗

N-dimensional fractional diffusion equation and Green function approach: spatially dependent diffusion coefficient and external force.

We investigate an N-dimensional fractional diffusion equation with radial symmetry by using the Green function approach. We consider, in our analysis, the spatial dependence on the diffusion coefficient and the presence of an external force. In particular, we employ boundary conditions in a finite interval and after we extend it to a semi-infinite interval. We also show that a rich class of diffusive processes, including normal and anomalous ones, can be obtained from the solutions found here.

Journal Article↗

Temperature Affects Expansion Rate of Maize Leaves without Change in Spatial Distribution of Cell Length (Analysis of the Coordination between Cell Division and Cell Expansion).

We have analyzed the way in which temperature affects leaf elongation rate of maize (Zea mays L.) leaves, while spatial distributions (observed at a given time) of cell length and of proportion of cells in DNA replication are unaffected. We have evaluated, in six growth chamber experiments with constant temperatures (from 13 to 34[deg]C) and two field experiments with fluctuating temperatures, (a) the spatial distributions of cell length and of leaf elongation rate, and (b) the distribution of cell division, either by using the continuity equation or by flow cytometry. Leaf elongation rate was closely related to meristem temperature, with a common relationship in the field and in the growth chamber. Cell division and cell elongation occurred in the first 20 and 60 mm after the ligule, respectively, at all temperatures. Similar quantitative responses to temperature were observed for local cell division and local tissue expansion rates (common x intercept and normalized slope), and both responses were spatially uniform over the whole expanding zone (common time courses in thermal time). As a consequence, faster cell elongation matched faster cell division rate and faster elongation was compensated for by faster cell displacement, resulting in temperature-invariant profiles of cell length and of proportion of dividing cells. Cell-to-cell communication, therefore, was not necessary to account for coordination.

Journal Article↗

Population analysis on the microcomputer: a system of software packages.

"This paper describes a system of versatile software packages that has been developed by the author for population analysis on IBM-compatible microcomputers using PC or MS DOS. The series includes programs for the production of life tables, the analysis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in mortality, population projections, stationary-state population simulations and demographic planning, cohort survival estimates of net migration, and the analysis of migration matrices. Each of the programs in the series is discussed in terms of its principal analytical features, associated conceptual and methodological issues, and potential applications. The programs are intended for use both as basic research and planning tools and as instructional aids in university-level-courses. The programs and related documentation are available on a set of four 360K diskettes." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Cohort Studies↗

Fluctuation x-ray scattering from biological particles in frozen solution by using synchrotron radiation.

Determination of the structure of biological particles, randomly oriented in solution, from spatial correlation analysis of fluctuations in x-ray scattering has recently been proposed. The feasibility of scattering fluctuation measurements was evaluated by using an x-ray synchrotron radiation camera to obtain the spatial correlation for a solution of tobacco mosaic virus along a line. The experimental system, analysis of data, and requirements for the determination of structures in solution are discussed using this example.

Freezing↗