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PubMed1981

[Notes on estimating the age distribution of emigrant surviving children].

"A procedure is described to obtain an age distribution of emigrant surviving children from the reports of such children obtained from women by a census or survey. A simple form of the procedure, requiring a minimum of calculation, is shown to work almost as well as the more elaborate form, and is recommended for most uses. "These new procedures, explicitly introducing an age model of migration, yield age distributions which are substantially different from, and probably more realistic than those obtained through the use of model fertility and mortality schedules alone.... The age distributions of migrant children [in Colombia] as obtained in this paper are compared with those obtained by Somoza.... The procedure described here produces a total almost 10 percent higher because it shifts the age distribution of the migrant children towards higher ages with lower proportions of surviving mothers." (summary in ENG)

Adolescent↗
PubMed1982

U.S. population: where we are; where we're going.

This Bulletin reviews recent trends in the dynamics and character of the U.S. population, the outlook for the remainder of the 1980s, and prospects for longterm growth. Estimated at 232 million as of mid-1982, the U.S. population is currently growing at about 1% a year, one of the developed world's highest growth rates. Natural increase (births-deaths) still adds some 1.7 million people a year, despite the rapid postbaby boom fall in fertility to a near-record low rate of 1.9 births/woman in 1981. With increasing numbers of refugees, net legal immigration averaged 600,000/year in 1979-81 and the net inflow of illegal immigrants may now be 500,000 a year. Uncertainty over potentially large numbers of immigrants complicates projections of future U.S. population size. Currently, the U.S. death rate is at an alltime low. More than 1/2 the population now resides in the South and West. Rural areas and small towns grew faster than urban areas in the 1970s for the 1st time in over a century. Educational attainment is at an alltime high, as is labor force participation, due to increasing employment among women and the baby boom generation's arrival at working ages. The age composition of the population, with the bulge of the baby boom generation surrounded by the older "depression" generation born during the 1930s and the younger "baby bust" generation born since the end of the 1960s, presents special problems for U.S. society.

Abortion, Induced↗