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PubMed2005

The relative role of winter and spring conditions: linking climate and landscape-scale plant phenology to alpine reindeer body mass.

The relative importance of winter harshness and early summer foraging conditions are of prime interest when assessing the effect of global warming on Arctic and mountainous ecosystems. We explored how climate and vegetation onset (satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data) determined individual performance in three reindeer populations (data on 27814 calves sampled over 11 years). Snow conditions, spring temperatures and topography were the main determinants of the onset of the vegetation. An earlier onset positively affected the body mass of calves born the following autumn, while there was no significant direct negative impact of the previous winter. This study underlines the major impact of winter and spring climatic conditions, determining the spring and summer food availability, and the subsequent growth of calves among alpine herbivores.

Animals↗
PubMed1997

Global climate change and phenotypic variation among red deer cohorts.

The variability of two fitness-related phenotypic traits (body weight and a mandibular skeletal ratio) was analysed among cohorts and age-classes of red deer in Norway. Phenotypic variation among cohorts was pronounced for calves, yearlings and reproductively mature adults. Fluctuations in cohort-specific mean body weights and skeletal ratios of adults correlated with global climatic variation in winter conditions influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation while cohorts were in utero. Red deer born following warm winters were smaller than those born after cold winters, and this inter-cohort variability persisted into adulthood. Phenotypic variation among cohorts of red deer influenced by climate change may pose consequences for fitness of cohorts since body size and condition contribute to reproductive success and survival in male and female red deer. In particular, the recent trend of increasingly warm winters in northern Europe and Scandinavia may lead to reduced body size and fecundity of red deer, and perhaps other ungulates, in those areas.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Thermal tolerance, climatic variability and latitude.

The greater latitudinal extents of occurrence of species towards higher latitudes has been attributed to the broadening of physiological tolerances with latitude as a result of increases in climatic variation. While there is some support for such patterns in climate, the physiological tolerances of species across large latitudinal gradients have seldom been assessed. Here we report findings for insects based on published upper and lower lethal temperature data. The upper thermal limits show little geographical variation. In contrast, the lower bounds of supercooling points and lower lethal temperatures do indeed decline with latitude. However, this is not the case for the upper bounds, leading to an increase in the variation in lower lethal limits with latitude. These results provide some support for the physiological tolerance assumption associated with Rapoport's rule, but highlight the need for coupled data on species tolerances and range size.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2000

The relative roles of density and climatic variation on population dynamics and fecundity rates in three contrasting ungulate species.

The relative influences of density-dependent and -independent processes on vital rates and population dynamics have been debated in ecology for over half a century, yet it is only recently that both processes have been shown to operate within the same population. However, generalizations on the role of each process across species are rare. Using a process-orientated generalized linear modelling approach we show that variations in fecundity rates in populations of three species of ungulates with contrasting life histories are associated with density and winter weather in a remarkably similar manner. However, there are differences and we speculate that they are a result of differences in size between the species. Much previous research exploring the association between vital rates, population dynamics and density-dependent and -independent processes has used pattern-orientated approaches to decompose time-series into contributions from density-dependent and -independent processes. Results from these analyses are sometimes used to infer associations between vital rates, density and climatic variables. We compare results from pattern-orientated analyses of time-series with process-orientated analyses and report that the two approaches give different results. The approach of analysing relationships between vital rates, density and climatic variables may detect important processes influencing population dynamics that time-series methodologies may overlook.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Timing of autumn bird migration under climate change: advances in long-distance migrants, delays in short-distance migrants.

As a response to increasing spring temperature in temperate regions in recent years, populations of many plant and animal species, including migratory birds, have advanced the seasonal start of their reproduction or growth. However, the effects of climate changes on subsequent events of the annual cycle remain poorly understood. We investigated long-term changes in the timing of autumn migration in birds, a key event in the annual cycle limiting the reproductive period. Using data spanning a 42-year period, we analysed long-term changes in the passage of 65 species of migratory birds through Western Europe. The autumn passage of migrants wintering south of the Sahara has advanced in recent years, presumably as a result of selection pressure to cross the Sahel before its seasonal dry period. In contrast, migrants wintering north of the Sahara have delayed autumn passage. In addition, species with a variable rather than a fixed number of broods per year have delayed passage, possibly because they are free to attempt more broods. Recent climate changes seem to have a simple unidirectional effect on the seasonal onset of reproduction, but complex and opposing effects on the timing of subsequent events in the annual cycle, depending on the ecology and life history of a species. This complicates predictions of overall effects of global warming on avian communities.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Evolution, climatic change and species boundaries: perspectives from tracing Lemmiscus curtatus populations through time and space.

To provide empirical evidence of species boundaries and the role of climatic change in affecting evolution, we documented evolution of the sagebrush vole, Lemmiscus curtatus, through hundreds of thousands of years by following populations from the middle Pleistocene to the present. We found that: (i) extant representatives of the species culminate a morphological transition that was initiated within an unusually arid and warm interglacial period, perhaps related to the shift from glacial-interglacial cycles dominated by a 41,000 year periodicity to those dominated by a 100,000 year rhythm; and (ii) sympatry of extant and extinct morphotypes persisted for more than 800,000 years. This exceptionally detailed tracing of extinct populations into extant ones suggests that species such as the one we studied are real entities in space, that their boundaries become fuzzy (although potentially diagnosable) through time and that unusual climatic warming may initiate significant evolutionary change manifested at the morphological level.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Morphological evolution, ecological diversification and climate change in rodents.

Among rodents, the lineage from Progonomys hispanicus to Stephanomys documents a case of increasing size and dental specialization during an approximately 9 Myr time-interval. On the contrary, some contemporaneous generalist lineages like Apodemus show a limited morphological evolution. Dental shape can be related to diet and can be used to assess the ecological changes along the lineages. Consequently, size and shape of the first upper molar were measured in order to quantify the patterns of morphological evolution along both lineages and compare them to environmental trends. Climatic changes do not have a direct influence on evolution, but they open new ecological opportunities by changing vegetation and allow the evolution of a specialist like Stephanomys. On the other hand, environmental changes are not dramatic enough to destroy the habitat of a long-term generalist like Apodemus. Hence, our results exemplify a case of an influence of climate on the evolution of specialist species, although a generalist species may persist without change.

Analysis of Variance↗
PubMed2005

Pathogen adaptation to seasonal forcing and climate change.

Many diverse infectious diseases exhibit seasonal dynamics. Seasonality in disease incidence has been attributed to seasonal changes in pathogen transmission rates, resulting from fluctuations in extrinsic climate factors. Multi-strain infectious diseases with strain-specific seasonal signatures, such as cholera, indicate that a range of seasonal patterns in transmission rates is possible in identical environments. We therefore consider pathogens capable of evolving their 'seasonal phenotype', a trait that determines the sensitivity of their transmission rates to environmental variability. We introduce a theoretical framework, based on adaptive dynamics, for predicting the evolution of disease dynamics in seasonal environments. Changes in the seasonality of environmental factors are one important avenue for the effects of climate change on disease. This model also provides a framework for examining these effects on pathogen evolution and associated disease dynamics. An application of this approach gives an explanation for the recent cholera strain replacement in Bangladesh, based on changes in monsoon rainfall patterns.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2025

Ancient climate changes and relaxed selection shape cave colonization in North American cavefishes.

Extreme environments serve as natural laboratories for studying evolutionary processes, with caves offering replicated instances of independent colonizations. The timing, mode and genetic underpinnings underlying cave-obligate organismal evolution remain enigmatic. We integrate phylogenomics, fossils, palaeoclimatic modelling and newly sequenced genomes to elucidate the evolutionary history and adaptive processes of cave colonization in the study group, the North American Amblyopsidae fishes. Amblyopsid fishes present a unique system for investigating cave evolution, encompassing surface, facultative cave-dwelling and cave-obligate (troglomorphic) species. Using 1105 exon markers and total-evidence dating, we reconstructed a robust phylogeny that supports the nested position of eyed, facultative cave-dwelling species within blind cavefishes. We identified three independent cave colonizations, dated to the Early Miocene (18.5 Ma), Late Miocene (10.0 Ma) and Pliocene (3.0 Ma). Evolutionary model testing supported a climate-relict hypothesis, suggesting that global cooling trends since the Early-Middle Eocene may have influenced cave colonization. Comparative genomic analyses of 487 candidate genes revealed both relaxed and intensified selection on troglomorphy-related loci. We found more loci under relaxed selection, supporting neutral mutation as a significant mechanism in cave-obligate evolution. Our findings provide empirical support for climate-driven cave colonization and offer insights into the complex interplay of selective pressures in extreme environments.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Floods in a changing climate: a review.

This paper begins with an analysis of flooding as a natural disaster for which the solutions to the environmental, social and economic problems are essentially those of identifying and overcoming hazards and vulnerability, reducing risk and damaging consequences. Long-term solutions to flooding problems, especially in a changing climate, should be sought in the wider context of developing more sustainable social organization, economics and technology. Then, developments are described of how scientific understanding, supported by practical modelling, is leading to predictions of how human-induced changes to climatic and geological conditions are likely to influence flooding over at least the next 300 years, through their influences on evaporation, precipitation, run-off, wind storm and sea-level rise. Some of the outstanding scientific questions raised by these problems are highlighted, such as the statistical and deterministic prediction of extreme events, the understanding and modelling of mechanisms that operate on varying length- and time-scales, and the complex interactions between biological, ecological and physical problems. Some options for reducing the impact of flooding by new technology include both improved prediction and monitoring with computer models, and remote sensing, flexible and focused warning systems, and permanent and temporary flood-reduction systems.

Climate↗
PubMed2002

Forests, carbon and global climate.

This review places into context the role that forest ecosystems play in the global carbon cycle, and their potential interactions with climate change. We first examine the natural, preindustrial carbon cycle. Every year forest gross photosynthesis cycles approximately one-twelfth of the atmospheric stock of carbon dioxide, accounting for 50% of terrestrial photosynthesis. This cycling has remained almost constant since the end of the last ice age, but since the Industrial Revolution it has undergone substantial disruption as a result of the injection of 480 PgC into the atmosphere through fossil-fuel combustion and land-use change, including forest clearance. In the second part of this paper we review this 'carbon disruption', and its impact on the oceans, atmosphere and biosphere. Tropical deforestation is resulting in a release of 1.7 PgC yr(-1) into the atmosphere. However, there is also strong evidence for a 'sink' for carbon in natural vegetation (carbon absorption), which can be explained partly by the regrowth of forests on abandoned lands, and partly by a global change factor, the most likely cause being 'fertilization' resulting from the increase in atmospheric CO(2). In the 1990s this biosphere sink was estimated to be sequestering 3.2 PgC yr(-1) and is likely to have substantial effects on the dynamics, structure and biodiversity of all forests. Finally, we examine the potential for forest protection and afforestation to mitigate climate change. An extensive global carbon sequestration programme has the potential to make a particularly significant contribution to controlling the rise in CO2 emissions in the next few decades. In the course of the whole century, however, even the maximum amount of carbon that could be sequestered will be dwarfed by the magnitude of (projected) fossil-fuel emissions. Forest carbon sequestration should only be viewed as a component of a mitigation strategy, not as a substitute for the changes in energy supply, use and technology that will be required if atmospheric CO(2) concentrations are to be stabilized.

Air Pollution↗
PubMed2003

Measurements of the offshore wave climate around the British Isles by satellite altimeter.

Satellite altimetry gives a new perspective on ocean wave climate. Measurements around the British Isles show a strong seasonality, with exceptionally large average wave heights to the west and north of the British Isles in the winter. Furthermore, the interannual variability of winter wave climate is very high. Most of this variability can be described by a strong linear dependence on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This relationship may largely explain observations of increasing wave heights in the northeastern Atlantic and northern North Sea during the latter decades of the 20th century, coincident with a long-term rise in the NAO.

Altitude↗
PubMed2003

Evidence for rapid climate change in the Mesozoic-Palaeogene greenhouse world.

The best-documented example of rapid climate change that characterized the so-called 'greenhouse world' took place at the time of the Palaeocene-Eocene boundary: introduction of isotopically light carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system, accompanied by global warming of 5-8 degrees C across a range of latitudes, took place over a few thousand years. Dissociation, release and oxidation of gas hydrates from continental-margin sites and the consequent rapid global warming from the input of greenhouses gases are generally credited with causing the abrupt negative excursions in carbon- and oxygen-isotope ratios. The isotopic anomalies, as recorded in foraminifera, propagated downwards from the shallowest levels of the ocean, implying that considerable quantities of methane survived upward transit through the water column to oxidize in the atmosphere. In the Mesozoic Era, a number of similar events have been recognized, of which those at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary, in the early Toarcian (Jurassic) and in the early Aptian (Cretaceous) currently carry the best documentation for dramatic rises in temperature. In these three examples, and in other less well-documented cases, the lack of a definitive time-scale for the intervals in question hinders calculation of the rate of environmental change. However, comparison with the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) suggests that these older examples could have been similarly rapid. In both the early Toarcian and early Aptian cases, the negative carbon-isotope excursion precedes global excess carbon burial across a range of marine environments, a phenomenon that defines these intervals as oceanic anoxic events (OAEs). Osmium-isotope ratios ((187)Os/(188)Os) for both the early Toarcian OAE and the PETM show an excursion to more radiogenic values, demonstrating an increase in weathering and erosion of continental crust consonant with elevated temperatures. The more highly buffered strontium-isotope system ((87)Sr/(86)Sr) also shows relatively more radiogenic signatures during the early Toarcian OAE, but the early Aptian and Cenomanian-Turonian OAEs show the reverse effect, implying that increased rates of sea-floor spreading and hydrothermal activity dominated over continental weathering in governing sea-water chemistry. The Cretaceous climatic optimum (late Cenomanian to mid Turonian) also shows evidence for abrupt cooling episodes characterized by episodic invasion of boreal faunas into temperate and subtropical regions and changes in terrestrial vegetation; drawdown of CO(2) related to massive marine carbon burial (OAE) may be implicated here. The absence of a pronounced negative carbon-isotope excursion preceding the Cenomanian-Turonian OAE indicates that methane release is not necessarily connected to global deposition of marine organic carbon, but relative thermal maxima are common to all OAEs. 'Cold snaps' have also been identified from the Mesozoic record but their duration, causes and effects are poorly documented.

Carbon↗
PubMed2005

Climate change impacts and vegetation response on the island of Madagascar.

The island of Madagascar has been labelled the world's number one conservation 'hot spot' because of increasing anthropogenic degradation of its natural habitats, which support a high level of species endemism. However, climatic phenomena may also have a significant impact upon the island's flora and fauna. An analysis of 18 years of monthly satellite images from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) have demonstrated that there is a dynamic pattern in Madagascar's vegetative cover both annually and seasonally throughout 1982-1999. Over interannual time-scales, we show that this vegetation response, calculated using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), has a strong negative correlation with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which can be attributable to drought events and associated wildfires. Global climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of the ENSO phenomenon, resulting in further decline of Madagascar's natural environment.

Conservation of Natural Resources↗
PubMed2005

The effects of climate change on storm surges around the United Kingdom.

Coastal flooding is often caused by extreme events, such as storm surges. In this study, improved physical models have been used to simulate the climate system and storm surges, and to predict the effect of increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases on the surges. In agreement with previous studies, this work indicates that the changes in atmospheric storminess and the higher time-average sea-level predicted for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to changes in the height of water levels measured relative to the present day tide. However, the details of these projections differ somewhat from earlier assessments. Uncertainty in projections of future extreme water levels arise from uncertainty in the amount and timing of future greenhouse gas emissions, uncertainty in the physical models used to simulate the climate system and from the natural variability of the system. The total uncertainty has not yet been reliably quantified and achieving this should be a priority for future research.

Climate↗
PubMed2006

Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100.

Coastal flood risk is a function of the probability of coastal flooding and the consequential damage. Scenarios of potential changes in coastal flood risk due to changes in climate, society and the economy over the twenty-first century have been analysed using a national-scale quantified flood risk analysis methodology. If it is assumed that there will be no adaptation to increasing coastal flood risk, the expected annual damage in England and Wales due to coastal flooding is predicted to increase from the current 0.5 billion pounds to between 1.0 pound and 13.5 billion pounds, depending on the scenario of climate and socio-economic change. The proportion of national flood risk that is attributable to coastal flooding is projected to increase from roughly 50% to between 60 and 70%. Scenarios of adaptation to increasing risk, by construction of coastal dikes or retreat from coastal floodplains, are analysed. These adaptations are shown to be able to reduce coastal flood risk to between 0.2 pounds and 0.8 billion pounds. The capital cost of the associated coastal engineering works is estimated to be between 12 pounds and 40 billion pounds. Non-structural measures to reduce risk can make a major contribution to reducing the cost and environmental impact of engineering measures.

Climate↗
PubMed2004

Several million years of stability among insect species because of, or in spite of, Ice Age climatic instability?

There is a curious paradox in the evolutionary legacy of Ice Ages. Studies of modern species suggest that they are currently evolving in response to changing environments. If extrapolated into the context of Quaternary Ice Ages, this evidence would suggest that the frequent climatic changes should have stimulated the evolutionary process and thus increased the rates of change within species and the number of speciation events. Extinction rates would, similarly, be high. Quaternary insect studies call into question these interpretations. They indicate that insect species show a remarkable degree of stability throughout the Ice Age climatic oscillations. The paradox arises from the apparent contradiction between abundant evidence of incipient speciation in insect populations at the present day and the evidence that, in the geological past, this apparently did not lead to sustained evolution.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Sources or sinks? The responses of tropical forests to current and future climate and atmospheric composition.

How tropical rainforests are responding to the ongoing global changes in atmospheric composition and climate is little studied and poorly understood. Although rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) could enhance forest productivity, increased temperatures and drought are likely to diminish it. The limited field data have produced conflicting views of the net impacts of these changes so far. One set of studies has seemed to point to enhanced carbon uptake; however, questions have arisen about these findings, and recent experiments with tropical forest trees indicate carbon saturation of canopy leaves and no biomass increase under enhanced CO2. Other field observations indicate decreased forest productivity and increased tree mortality in recent years of peak temperatures and drought (strong El Niño episodes). To determine current climatic responses of forests around the world tropics will require careful annual monitoring of ecosystem performance in representative forests. To develop the necessary process-level understanding of these responses will require intensified experimentation at the whole-tree and stand levels. Finally, a more complete understanding of tropical rainforest carbon cycling is needed for determining whether these ecosystems are carbon sinks or sources now, and how this status might change during the next century.

Atmosphere↗