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PubMed1999

Hepatitis A in Australia in the 1990s: future directions in surveillance and control.

The national notification data from 1952 to 1997 was examined in order to characterise hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection in Australia in the 1990s, and to determine whether currently available surveillance data are sufficient to inform disease control strategies and vaccination policies. Hepatitis A annual notification rates declined dramatically from a high of 123 notifications per 100,000 persons in 1961, to 3 per 100,000 in 1989. During 1991-97, the hepatitis A notification rate was 12 per 100,000 persons per year, although rates varied substantially between States and Territories. The Northern Territory had the highest notification rate of 52 per 100,000 persons per year. Seventy-six per cent of cases were adults, although in most regions notification rates were significantly higher in children than adults. Nationally, the male to female ratio was 1.7:1 (p < 0.001). The Northern Territory was the only area with no significant difference in notifications between the sexes. Large outbreaks were detectable through the notification system but risk factors for transmission could only be inferred from age and sex distribution of notifications, and from previous outbreak reports. National hepatitis A surveillance would be improved by collecting basic risk factor data, which identify cases as food-borne, sporadic, related to another case, or travel related. In addition, a population based serosurvey to measure age-specific hepatitis A susceptibility would assist vaccination policy development. Serosurveillance data are also needed, in conjunction with enhancements of the notification data, to provide baseline information against which the impact of changes in vaccination policy can be assessed.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Mumps and rubella surveillance in Victoria, 1993 to 2000.

Despite improving childhood coverage of the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine (MMR) in Victoria during the 1990s, mumps and rubella notifications in age groups eligible for vaccination persisted. This study reviewed the mumps and rubella surveillance data from 1993 to 2000 with a specific focus on method of diagnosis. There were 474 notifications of mumps over the seven-year period (annual median 61, range 40 to 77) and 3,544 notifications of rubella (annual median 297, range 66 to 1,165). The highest notifications rates for mumps were consistently among the 1-4 and 5-9 year age groups, whereas there was a marked change in the age distribution of rubella notifications during this interval. A large rubella outbreak occurred in 1995 with 1,165 notifications; the highest notification rates were males aged 15-24 years, infants under one year of age (males and females), and those aged 5-14 years (males and females), respectively. The susceptibility of 5-24 year olds reflects historical changes to the Australian Standard Vaccination Schedule. Rubella notifications returned to baseline levels in 1998 with the highest notification rates in infants aged under one year, and children aged 1-4 years. For both mumps and rubella, the majority of notifications for all age groups were clinically diagnosed, and were most common in children.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

Communicable Diseases Network Australia: National Arbovirus and Malaria Advisory Committee annual report 2004-05.

This report describes the epidemiology of mosquito-borne disease in Australia for the mosquito-borne disease season 1 July 2004 to 30 June 2005. Ross River virus (RRV) infections (45%), Barmah Forest virus (BFV) infections (30%) and malaria (19%) were the most common mosquito-borne diseases reported in 2004-05. The Northern Territory had the highest rate of RRV notifications and the peak notification rate (in February 2005) was 54 per cent less than the previous season. The Northern Territory also reported the highest BFV notification rate this season, peaking in April 2005, which was the second highest reported BFV notification rate since 1998. National RRV and BFV notification rates were highest in the 45-49 year age group. There were 799 notifications of malaria in 2004-05 of which none were reported as locally acquired. This was the third highest reporting season for malaria notifications since 1998. In contrast to previous years in which Plasmodium vivax was the predominant species, Plasmodium falciparum was reported as the infecting species in 57 per cent of the malaria notifications and Plasmodium vivax for 34 per cent of cases. Children in the 5-9 year age group had the highest number of cases compared to previous years in which the peak number of cases tended to be in young adult age groups. There were four cases of Kunjin virus (KUNV) and two cases of Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) reported in 2004-05. Sentinel chicken surveillance data for flaviviruses and sentinel pig surveillance data for Japanese encephalitis virus are reported. There were 188 notifications of dengue virus infection (DENV) in 2004-05, of which 46 per cent (n=86) were reported as having been acquired overseas. Dengue serotype 4 was the most frequently reported type, accounting for 32 per cent of cases (n=60).

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

[Ratio of confirmed versus suspected occupational diseases as a parameter of quality].

PURPOSE: To evaluate the notifications of suspected causes of occupational diseases (NSC) under quality assurance aspects. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed the NSC assessed by the institutions for statutory accident insurance and prevention (Berufsgenossenschaft) between 1998 and 2002. RESULTS: Physicians were most frequently represented among the 357,050 notifications (60.2 %). The number of notifications dropped continually between 1998 and 2002. The number and quality of the notifications (NSC) depend on the knowledge of the occupational diseases as well as on the knowledge of the insured persons and on their respective occupational histories. The NSC are issued via the statutory social insurance bodies who are in contact with the patients, and the NSC also depend on the present scientific knowledge of the types of relevant diseases. Usually, the physicians were most frequently the notifiers of occupational diseases, with one exception, namely, incapacitating diseases due to damage to vertebral discs of the lumbar spine caused by many years of lifting of carrying heavy loads or of many years of work in an extremely bent position, in which cases the statutory insurance bodies themselves issued the notifications. Altogether 123,262 notifications were confirmed. The average quota of confirmations was > 40 % with physicians issuing the notifications, > 30 % with statutory pension insurance bodies and only approx. 12 % with notifying statutory sickness insurance bodies. The lowest quota of confirmations - namely, only 3 % - concerned the incapacitating vertebral disc disease of the lumbar spine mentioned above. Non-confirmed notifications of suspected occupational diseases involved an estimated cost of at least 58 million Euro. DISCUSSION: On-target improvement of the quality of notification of suspected occupational diseases is possible by exploring several avenues, including on-target assessment of evaluation criteria reporting by the statutory accident insurance bodies concerned and by regular advice rendered to the statutory social insurance bodies by occupational therapists.

Accidents, Occupational↗
PubMed1999

Australia's notifiable diseases status, 1998. Annual report of the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System.

In 1998 there were 85,096 notifications to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System; slightly lower than in 1997 (89,579). The number of measles cases remained low, and well below the number reported in the outbreak years of 1993 and 1994. Rubella notifications further decreased and remained low in 1998. The Measles Control Campaign from August to November 1998, did not impact significantly on the number of measles or rubella cases reported for 1998. Notifications of Haemophilus influenzae type b reached a record low since surveillance began in 1991, and appeared to have stabilised at a low rate since the introduction of the conjugated vaccine in 1992. The previously reported outbreak of pertussis in 1997 tapered off in early 1998. Food-borne disease, or detection of disease, appeared to be on the rise with an increase in notification rates of campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis. Notifications of hepatitis A decreased, correcting the previous high number of notifications in 1997. Sexually transmissible diseases (STDs) increased. Notifications for chlamydial infection were the highest for all sexually transmitted diseases and third highest for all notifiable diseases. Notifications of gonococcal infection also continued to rise and have doubled since 1991, whilst notifications for syphilis increased slightly after falling steadily over recent years. Arbovirus infections of concern in 1998 were dengue outbreaks in Far North Queensland and the first case of Japanese Encephalitis for mainland Australia, highlighting the importance of surveillance of arboviruses and vectors for their detection and management.

Australia↗
PubMed1991

Improving surveillance of infectious diseases in New South Wales.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the feasibility of laboratory reporting of infectious diseases and to compare the value of this system with the existing medical practitioner notification system. DESIGN: A sample of notifications was selected from medical practitioner notifications and was compared for both completeness and timeliness of notification with a sample of notifications obtained through the Laboratory Infectious Diseases Surveillance Project. SETTING: The New South Wales Health Department and the Public Health Unit of the Eastern Sydney Area Health Service. PARTICIPANTS: Medical practitioners forwarding notifications of infectious diseases to the New South Wales Health Department and laboratories participating in the Laboratory Infectious Diseases Surveillance Project. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We counted the number of infectious diseases reported by medical practitioners and participating laboratories and estimated the proportion of these diseases which were common to both sources of data. We also estimated the time taken between the diagnosis of a notifiable infectious disease and the receipt of the notification by the Medical Officer of Health. RESULTS: There was substantial underreporting of notifiable infectious diseases by medical practitioners. During the study there were 461 cases of a notifiable disease reported by either medical practitioners or by participating laboratories. Of these cases, 75% were reported only by laboratory staff, 20.2% were reported by medical practitioners alone and 4.8% of cases were reported by both laboratory staff and medical practitioners. The Medical Officer of Health received the reports from the participating laboratories within a significantly shorter time than the notifications from medical practitioners. CONCLUSION: The use of infectious disease notifications by laboratories can substantially improve the surveillance of infectious diseases.

Communicable Disease Control↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Factors associated with reported vaccination coverage in early infancy: results of a telephone survey].

BACKGROUND: Barcelona's Continuing Immunization Plan affords the possibility Of monitoring the immunization coverage of the population by means of the voluntary family postal notification system. Prior studies have revealed that some families fail to provide notification while being correctly vaccinated, which can lead to actual coverage being underestimated. The objectives of this study are to estimate the early childhood immunization coverage of the population and to ascertain the factors associated with failure to provide notification of immunization. METHODS: A phone survey was conducted on a sample of 500 children regarding whom there was no record of any notification of the first three childhood vaccine doses (diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough and oral polio), in addition to a sample of 500 children who were on record as having been immunized. To estimate the actual immunization coverage, all children were considered to have been properly immunized when their family members did provide notification. As regards those who failed to reply, it was considered in the worst of cases that these were cases of children who had not be immunized. In the best of cases scenario, a coverage similar to those of the responses was assumed. RESULTS: The response to the questionnaire was higher among those who had previously provided notification of immunization by way of the postal notification system (79.1%) than among those who had failed to provide notification of immunization (67%). The leading factors associated with failure to report immunization status were the size of the families, the use of private health care services and the place of birth of the parents. Solely six (6) cases of those who had failed to report immunization admitted to not having immunized their children, totaling 1.9% of the responses. The immunization coverage of the population in question would total 99.7% in the best of cases and 93.7% in the worst of cases scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Immunization coverage of the population in question is quite high. The results underline the importance of promoting immunization notification among health care professionals, especially in the private sector.

Analysis of Variance↗
PubMed1998

Pertussis in South Australia 1893 to 1996.

This study describes trends in reports of pertussis in South Australia. Data were analysed from three sources: mortality data since 1893 from South Australian yearbooks, notification data from 1917, and hospitalisation data for pertussis or related complications since July 1985. Crude and age-specific rates of mortality, notifications and hospitalisation were compared. Pertussis peaked in 3 to 5 yearly cycles. The mortality and notification rates have generally declined over time. However, since 1993 the notification rate has remained high. The median age for pertussis notifications increased from 4 years in 1984 to 15 years in 1996. Serological testing for pertussis was included in 15% of notifications in 1985 and 90% in 1996. The age specific hospitalisation rate for pertussis was highest in infants < or = 6 months. Since the turn of the century, mortality and notification rates due to pertussis have declined. Over the past decade the major burden of severe disease resulting in hospitalisation has been borne by infants < or = 6 months. These infants are too young to be afforded protection from three primary immunisations against pertussis. Despite no substantial increase in mortality nor hospitalisation for pertussis in South Australia, the notification rate has remained high since 1993. This increase may be attributable to the use of more sensitive tests for pertussis, such as serology.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2000

Vaccine preventable diseases and vaccination coverage in Australia, 1993-1998.

BACKGROUND: Since the introduction of childhood vaccination for diphtheria in 1932 and the widespread use of vaccines to prevent tetanus, pertussis (whooping cough) and poliomyelitis in the 1950s, deaths in Australia from vaccine preventable diseases (VPDs) have declined by more than 99%. It is important, however, that the downward trend in morbidity and mortality from VPDs is maintained and carefully monitored, and that changes are interpreted in relation to vaccination coverage. AIM: This report aimed to bring together three national sources of routinely collected data on the morbidity and mortality (notifications, hospitalisations and deaths) from VPDs during the period 1993-1998 for the 8 diseases then on the routine childhood vaccination schedule, and for 4 other diseases potentially preventable by childhood vaccination. It also examined vaccination coverage for the same period. METHODS: Data sources included notifications from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS), hospitalisation data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) National Hospital Morbidity Database, deaths from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Causes of Death Collection and vaccination coverage according to the Australian Childhood Immunisation Register (ACIR). All data sources were expected to have some limitations, the most important being under-reporting for notifications and vaccination encounters, and coding errors in the hospital morbidity data. RESULTS: Notifications for the 8 diseases covered by the routine schedule declined by 42%, from an average of 11,537 cases each year in 1993-1997 to 6700 in 1998, and hospitalisations fell by 12%, from an average of 1745 per year to 1536 in 1997/1998, while deaths remained unchanged at 7 each year over the period of review (Table 1). Tetanus caused 1 or 2 of the deaths each year. However, 6 of the 7 deaths in 1997 were in infants during a major outbreak of pertussis. Pertussis caused most of the notifications, hospitalisations and deaths during the review period. While most of these were in children, 46% of the notifications and 13% of the hospitalisations occurred in persons aged 15 years or more. There were notable declines in the numbers of notifications of invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) disease in children under 5 years of age (77%), measles (87%) and rubella (75%), and there were no notifications of diphtheria or poliomyelitis. Vaccination coverage estimated using ACIR data increased during the review period. Coverage for the first 3 doses of diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis and Hib vaccines, assessed at 1 year of age, increased from 75% to 85%, while coverage for measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine, assessed at 2 years of age, increased from 83% to 86%. It is likely that these data underestimated coverage by 5-10%, and that the increase in coverage partly reflected better reporting to the ACIR by providers.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Australia's notifiable diseases status, 2003 annual report of the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System.

In 2003, 58 diseases and conditions were notifiable at a national level in Australia. States and territories reported a total of 104,956 cases to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System an increase of 3.2 per cent on the total number of notifications in 2002. In 2003, the most frequently notified diseases were sexually acquired infections (38,854, 37% of total notifications), gastrointestinal diseases (24,655 notifications, 24%) and bloodborne viruses (20,825 notifications, 20%). There were 11,113 notifications of vaccine preventable diseases, 6,780 notifications of vectorborne diseases, 1,826 notification of other bacterial infections and 903 notifications of zoonotic diseases.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

Australia's notifiable diseases status, 2004, annual report of the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System.

In 2004, 60 diseases and conditions were nationally notifiable in Australia. States and Territories reported a total of 110,929 cases of communicable diseases to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS): an increase of 4 per cent on the number of notifications in 2003. In 2004, the most frequently notified diseases were sexually transmissible infections (46,762 cases; 42% of total notifications), gastrointestinal diseases (25,247 cases; 23% of total notifications) and bloodborne diseases (19,191 cases; 17% of total notifications). There were 13,206 notifications of vaccine preventable diseases, 6,000 notifications of vectorborne diseases, 1,799 notifications of other bacterial infections (includes, legionellosis, leprosy, meningococcal infections and tuberculosis) and 877 notifications of zoonotic diseases.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1993

Methodologic issues in risk communications to workers.

Until the late 1980s, epidemiologists in general did not individually notify subjects of the results of epidemiological studies. Now that they are beginning to do so, the question arises of how best to notify those involved. In general, the methods, the processes and the policies related to effectively communicating risks to workers have not been thoroughly examined in the scientific literature. This is especially true in situations where workers have already experienced the exposures that led to increased risks for disease. The recent increasing numbers of notifications have raised several methodologic issues, which are examined in terms of: (1) the content of notification, (2) the process of notification, and (3) the evaluation of the impact and effectiveness of notification. Too often in the discussion concerning notification, attention is paid to the content but the process and evaluation are rarely considered. The potential impact and effectiveness of notification have been raised as reasons for or against notification, but rarely has there been a concerted effort to evaluate a notification in this regard. This workshop was designed to address all these issues. The ultimate goal is to improve communications for workers.

Communication↗
PubMed2002

Further abuse of sexually abused children.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence of re-abuse in children known to have been sexually abused and to find factors that increase the risk of re-abuse. METHOD: The study group consisted of 183 children with substantiated sexual abuse who presented to two children's hospitals' Child Protection Units in Sydney, Australia during 1988 through 1990. At intake, when the children were aged between 5 years and 15 years, data about the child, the family, and the nature of the index sexual abuse were collected. Six years after presentation for the abuse, records of the Department of Community Services were checked to see if any of the young people had been the subject of substantiated notifications for abuse/neglect before and after intake to the study. Predictors of notifications for abuse/neglect after presentation for the index sexual abuse were identified. RESULTS: Of the sexually abused young people, nearly one in three were the subject of subsequent substantiated notifications to the Department of Community Services for some form of child abuse and neglect or behavior which placed them at risk of harm. Later notifications for abuse/neglect were predicted by notifications for emotional abuse before the index sexual abuse (adjusted RR = 4.88, CI: 1.43 to 16.65), severity of the index sexual abuse (p = .03), and the number of changes in the child's primary caregivers before intake (p = .03). Approximately one in six of the sexually abused young people were notified for sexual abuse after intake to the study. One in 10 also had prior notifications for sexual abuse. Sexual abuse notifications after study intake were predicted by caregiver changes before intake (p = .01) and whether or not there were notifications for emotional abuse before the index sexual abuse (adjusted RR = 3.40, CI: 1.05 to 11.02). CONCLUSIONS: Revictimization of children appears to be a marker of ongoing family dysfunction. Intervention in child sexual abuse needs to consider a range of risk factors associated with re-abuse and, in particular, should focus on family functioning if further abuse is to be prevented.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1991

Inclusion of laboratory test results in the surveillance of infectious diseases.

We studied certain indicators of the speed with which infectious diseases were notified and epidemiological case records carried out by public health workers for notifications with and without inclusion of laboratory test results. The notification records for brucellosis, dysentery, typhoid fever, viral hepatitis, meningococcal meningitis, and pulmonary tuberculosis in the province of Barcelona between 1982 and 1986 have been reviewed. For each disease notified the time lapse between the onset of symptoms and notification (Delay 1), between notification and implementation of the epidemiological investigation (Delay 2), and the sum of both time lapses (Delay 3) were calculated. In all diseases (with the exception of meningococcal meningitis) when significant differences in delays were noted, the longest were found in those notifications that included laboratory data in the epidemiological investigation. This means that the provision of laboratory data makes the process of notification slower (Delays 1, 2, and 3). Both notification when laboratory results are available and the inclusion of laboratory data in the epidemiological investigation, have a negative influence on the speed of the statutory notification process.

Communicable Disease Control↗
PubMed2003

The relentless spread of tuberculosis in Zambia--trends over the past 37 years (1964-2000).

OBJECTIVE: To review trends in the rates of tuberculosis (TB) case notifications over a 37-year period. DESIGN: A retrospective study of Ministry of Health records on TB notifications between 1 January 1964 and 31 December 2000. SETTING: Zambia, sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of case-notification data for TB of the Zambia Ministry of Health annual returns. OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual TB case-notification rates and trends over the past 37 years. RESULTS: TB case-notification data from 1964 to 2000 show a 12-fold increase over the past two decades, and apparent gains in controlling TB seen in the 1960s and 1970s have been reversed over the past two decades. A stable situation during the period 1964-1984 (case-notification rate remained around 100 per 100,000 population) was followed by an exponential increase since the mid-1980s. The absolute number of new TB cases increased from 8,246 in 1985 (124/100,000) to 38,863 (409/100,000) in 1996 and 52,000 (512/100,000) in 2000. Comparison of case-notification rates over the past 2 decades with neighbouring countries (Zimbabwe, Malawi and Tanzania) show that Zambia has one of the highest case-notification rates in the region. CONCLUSIONS: Zambia, like many countries in Africa, is in the midst of a serious TB epidemic and there are no signs that it is abating. This increase was most likely due to the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and subsequent breakdown of TB services. Concerted donor-government efforts should invest appropriately in long-term plans for TB control.

AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[New and readmitted cases of tuberculosis reported in the first half of 1996].

Data from TB notification forms, completed between 1.01-30.06.1996, were stored in National TB Database and used to compute TB notification rate structure and the other informations commented here. Yearly notification rate for 1996 was estimated as twice the value for the first 6 months. During the first 6 months, 13488 patients were notified with tuberculosis. Estimated annual notification rate (118.9/100,000) represents an increase of 15.9% as compared to 1995. 87.5% in comparison with 1989 and 113.1% as compared to 1985. Considering TB notifications in 1985 as reference, this increase supplied a cumulative overload of 57438 patients. TB notifications rate shows large differences between districts varying from: 193.3/100,000 (Dolj district) to 43.9/100,000 (Covasna district). Sex differences were also important: 172.9/100,000 in males (301.3/100,000 in Dolj district but 69.8/100,000 in Covasna) and 67.3/100,000 in females (102.9/10,000 in Vranceu but 18.7/100,000 in Convasna). There were large differences in pleural th notification rates (from 32.0/100,000 in Vrancea to 4.3/100,000 in Covasna) and extrapulmonary tb notification rates in various country districts, the lower rates rising the idea of a possible underdiagnosis. 66.9% of notified pulmonary tb cases were smear or culture positive (67.2/100,000), with district values between 97.0% (116.9/100,000) in Mehedinţi and 37.3% (39.5/100,000) in Sălaj, the lower values could rather be explained by the quality of the sputum examinations than by severity profile of patients.

Female↗
PubMed1998

The epidemiology of tuberculosis in New South Wales 1975-1995: the effects of immigration in a low prevalence population.

SETTING: New South Wales (NSW) is Australia's most populous state and is home to one third of the country's rapidly growing immigrant population. OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of immigration upon the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in a low prevalence population. DESIGN: A retrospective review of state TB surveillance data in NSW from 1975-1995. RESULTS: The crude notification rate for all active TB declined from 12.2 per 100000 population in 1975 to 5.2/100000 in 1986, after which the notification rate increased steadily to 7.6/100000 in 1995. Between 1975 and 1995, the proportion of all TB notifications occurring in overseas-born residents increased from 30% (178/601) to 79% (345/435). During this period, the proportion of new extra-pulmonary TB notifications increased from 13% (72/549) to 42% (171/405). Notifications amongst women increased from 31% (188/601) to 47% (218/462) of the total, while the median age at notification fell from 55 to 41 years. The pattern of TB disease has not changed for Australian-born cases, who are mostly elderly men with pulmonary disease. Multidrug-resistant TB remains uncommon (<1%), and co-infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and TB has not emerged as a major problem (2% of notifications), but is poorly documented. CONCLUSION: TB has re-emerged in NSW predominantly because of increased immigration from high prevalence countries. The epidemiology of TB has become dominated by overseas-born notifications, and now younger adults are primarily affected. Enhancing the effectiveness of the TB screening procedures for immigrants is a priority. Information should be provided to all immigrants and to long-term visitors from countries of high TB prevalence regarding TB infection and the TB services available in Australia.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

Measles surveillance in Victoria, Australia.

OBJECTIVE: Many countries are implementing measles elimination strategies. In Australia, the State of Victoria has conducted enhanced measles surveillance since 1997 using case interviews and home-based specimen collection for laboratory confirmation. We attempted to identify features of notified cases that would better target surveillance resources. METHODS: We retrospectively classified notifications received from 1998 to 2003 as having been received in an epidemic (one or more laboratory-confirmed cases) or an interepidemic period (no laboratory-confirmed cases). We labelled the first case notified in any epidemic period that was not laboratory-confirmed at the time of notification as a "sentinel case". To maximize detection of sentinel cases while minimizing the follow-up of eventually discarded notifications, we generated algorithms using sentinel cases and interepidemic notifications. FINDINGS: We identified 10 sentinel cases with 422 interepidemic notifications from 1281 Victorian notifications. Sentinel cases were more likely to report fever at rash onset (odds ratio (OR) 15.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) CI: 2.1-688.9), cough (OR 10.4, 95% CI: 1.4-456.7), conjunctivitis (OR 7.9, 95% CI: 1.8-39.1), or year of birth between 1968 and 1981 (OR 31.8, 95% CI: 6.7-162.3). Prospective application of an algorithm consisting of fever at rash onset or born between 1968 and 1981 in the review period would have detected all sentinel cases and avoided the need for enhanced follow-up of 162 of the 422 eventually discarded notifications. CONCLUSION: Elimination strategies should be refined to suit regional and local priorities. The prospective application of an algorithm in Victoria is likely to reduce enhanced measles surveillance resource use in interepidemic periods, while still detecting early cases during measles outbreaks.

Adolescent↗