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Estimation of fecundability from survey data.

The estimation of fecundability from survey data is plagued by methodological problems such as misreporting of dates of birth and marriage and the occurrence of premarital exposure to the risk of conception. Nevertheless, estimates of fecundability from World Fertility Survey data for women married in recent years appear to be plausible for most of the surveys analyzed here and are quite consistent with estimates reported in earlier studies. The estimates presented in this article are all derived from the first interval, the interval between marriage or consensual union and the first live birth conception.

Actuarial Analysis↗

[Change of partner between births and adverse pregnancy outcomes].

BACKGROUND: Childbearing with different fathers has increased in western societies because of the higher frequency of divorce and remarriage. Pregnancy outcomes may differ between mothers who have changed partner between first and second birth and mothers who have the same father for both births. Women who change partner may have individual characteristics that increase risk of adverse outcomes, but change of partner could also be associated with unfavourable changes in behaviour. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The Medical Birth Registry of Norway was established in 1967 and includes information on approximately 1.8 million births until 1998. Both parents are recorded. We have compared pregnancy outcomes for 30 176 mothers who changed partner between first and second birth and 461 154 mothers who had the same partner for both births. RESULTS: In relation to the first birth, the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes was not clearly different between mothers who later had a second birth with another partner and mothers who had the same partner for both births. Offsprings of mothers who changed partner between first and second birth were at higher risk of infant mortality (relative risk 1.5, 95 % confidence interval, 1.3-1.7), preterm birth (< 37 weeks; relative risk 1.3, 95 % confidence interval, 1.2-1.4), and low birth weight (< 2500 gram; relative risk 1.5, 95 % confidence interval, 1.4-1.6), after adjustment for maternal age and level of education, interval between births, and time period. INTERPRETATION: Mothers who change partner between first and second birth are at increased risk of having a preterm, low birth weight baby with increased risk of infant death for the second child compared to mothers who have the same partner for both births.

Birth Order↗

Sequential pulmonary function measurements in very low-birth weight infants during the first week of life.

Sequential lung function was measured in 12 very low-birth weight infants (less than or equal to 1,250 g) within 14 hours of birth, and at daily intervals thereafter for the first week of life, using an esophageal balloon and pneumotachograph system. All infants were clinically free of respiratory distress syndrome and radiographically showed no evidence of atelectasis or pulmonary edema. The alveolar-arterial oxygen tension gradient was high at birth and remained elevated over the period during which arterial blood gases were monitored. Increases of lung compliance and tidal volume between the first day and the end of the first week of life were not significant. Day-to-day determinations of lung compliance revealed an individual and group variability without a definite pattern. Lung resistance measurements indicated no clear trend for the group as a whole, but inspiratory resistance was generally lower than expiratory resistance. Possible causes, in addition to technical factors, that may account for the variability in the pulmonary mechanics of these small infants include an instability of lung volume and uneven distribution of pleural pressure due to chest wall distortion, differences in sleep-state, and alteration in the distribution of body fluids, resulting in a change in lung water. Any or all of these mechanisms may result in an unstable lung, even in an apparently clinically stable very low-birth weight infant.

Airway Resistance↗

Growth pattern of low birth weight babies in the first year of life.

OBJECTIVE: The growth pattern of low birth weight (LBW) babies was studied prospectively in our hospital from September 1995 to august 1996. METHOD: Every baby <1.5 kg birth weight (B.Wt), every 2nd baby between 1.5 to 2 kg, every 6th baby between 2 to 2.5 kg and 120 term appropriate for gestation (AGA) babies ( as controls) were included in the study. Severe birth asphyxia, multiple gestation, major malformations or severe birth trauma formed exclusion criteria. Weight, length and head circumference were measured in all babies at birth and at 2 monthly intervals till 1 year of age. All babies completing 1 year follow-up were included for final analysis. Growth distance curves were constructed separately for each parameter for the six categories based on birth weight (Groups I-VI) and on gestational age (Divisions A-F). Comparison was made between the LBW babies and the controls for growth pattern among the babies who completed 1 year follow up (total of 220 babies). RESULT: The growth pattern for weight and length showed good catch up growth in babies >1.25 kg B.Wt. and >30 weeks gestation, reaching almost the same level as controls by 1 year of age. Babies with B.Wt <1.25 kg and <30 weeks gestation showed late and poor catch up growth, with considerable lag persisting at 1 year of age. Head circumference increased rapidly in all babies, with maximal growth rate initially followed by a steady decline. All babies showed catch up growth, although those <1.25 kg and <30 weeks gestation still lagged behind even at 1 year. CONCLUSION: It was seen that the smallest and least mature babies had late and poor catch up growth. Recognition of the factors influencing catch up growth and adequate measures to improve growth (like attention to feeding practices) may improve the overall outcome of these babies.

Anthropometry↗

Health of very low birth weight children during their first eight years.

To determine the impact of very low birth weight (VLBW) on medical outcomes during childhood, we compared the health of 249 VLBW children born from 1977 through 1979 with that of 363 normal birth weight (NBW) control children at 8 years of age. Measures included the rates of specific illnesses, surgical procedures and accidents, growth, and other physical findings. The number of medical conditions and surgical procedures was significantly greater in the VLBW children than in the NBW control children. Eighteen percent of VLBW versus 5% of NBW children had had respiratory conditions (p < 0.001), mainly before 3 years of age. Surgical procedures were more common both before and after 3 years of age, but accidents occurred with similar frequency. The VLBW children had significantly lower weight, height, and head circumference and more minor physical stigmata. Thus medical illness, surgical interventions, and poor growth attainment are part of the ongoing morbidity of VLBW children during childhood.

Accidents↗

How many data sources are needed to determine diabetes prevalence by capture-recapture?

BACKGROUND: Capture-recapture (CR) methods are increasingly used to estimate the size of human populations, including those with diabetes. Few studies have examined the demographic details needed to match patients on the lists used in these techniques, or to determine the optimum number of lists. METHODS: Six lists of known diabetic patients attending different medical settings during the study year were obtained. The effects on total enumeration after aggregation of these lists were examined using increasing numbers of demographic data items as patient identifiers. The CR estimates of prevalence were obtained using 15 different combinations of two lists. Estimates were obtained after log-linear modelling for interdependence between different combinations of three and four lists, and after combining the six available lists into three logical lists. RESULTS: For matching patients, adding date of birth to first name and family name as matching criteria increased the total of identified patients from 2500 to 2585 (3% increase), corresponding to a period prevalence of 1.5% (95% CI : 1.41-1.52). Addition of further identifiers, such as partial postcode, only increased the estimate by a further 15 patients (0.5%), and more detailed matching with full postcode introduced uncertainty. The use of two-list CR yielded widely varying estimates of the total diabetic population from 1379 (95% CI : 435-2273) to 9554 (95% CI : 7291-10 983). Log-linear modelling using different combinations of three and four lists produced estimates of 5074 (95% CI : 4417-5947) and 5578 (95% CI : 4918-7081), respectively, after compensating for statistical interdependence between the lists used. The appropriate condensation of six available lists into three lists for modelling yielded estimates of 5492 (95% CI : 4870-6285), corresponding to a CR-adjusted period prevalence of 3.1% (95% CI : 3.03-3.19%). CONCLUSIONS: In a Western population, the only demographic data required for matching patients on lists used for CR methods are first name, family name and date of birth, if unique identifiers such as social security numbers are not available. Two lists alone do not produce reliable data, and at least three lists are needed to allow for modelling for 'dependence' between datasets. The use of more than three lists does not substantially alter the absolute value or confidence of enumeration, and multiple lists (if available) should be condensed into three lists for use in CR calculations.

Databases, Factual↗

Seasonality of birth in nineteenth- and twentieth-century Austria.

We present an analysis of birth seasonality in nine geographical regions within Austria for two time periods, 1881-1912 and 1947-1959. In the early period, geography, climate, and agricultural patterns were related to birth seasonality. By the latter time period, these factors were no longer related to birth seasonality. We propose a "resilience hypothesis," which suggests two levels of causal influences on birth seasonality. First, underlying the three significant features of birth seasonality patterns around the world are only a small number of major causes. But, second, there are a multiplicity of minor causes that result in small perturbations in these otherwise resilient and consistent patterns.

Agriculture↗

Patterns of cognitive development in very low birth weight children during the first six years of life.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive development in very low birth weight (VLBW, < or = 1500 g) infants typically has been reported based on mean endpoints in cross-sectional studies. These overall group means mask individual patterns of cognitive development. Given the heterogeneity of VLBW infants, it is important to identify individual patterns of development and the factors associated with the different patterns. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine individual patterns of cognitive development over the first 6 years in VLBW children and to examine the relative influence of selected biomedical and sociodemographic factors on these patterns. METHOD: VLBW infants (N = 203) were followed from birth to six years. Cognitive scores were obtained at four yearly intervals, and biomedical and social data were obtained beginning with the neonatal period. Cluster analysis was used to identify individual patterns of cognitive development. RESULTS: Five developmental patterns were identified: average-stable (13% of the sample); average-declined to low average (24% of the sample); average-declined to below average (43% of the sample); very low-increased to low average (8% of the sample); and very low-stable (12% of the sample). The patterns could be differentiated by several biomedical factors, including birth weight, gestational age, neonatal health, and 1-year assessments of neurological status and head circumference, as well as by level of maternal education. In particular, abnormal neurological status at 1 year was associated with a pattern of very low stable scores, and a suspicious status was associated with a pattern of improving cognitive development. Maternal education was influential among children born at the upper end of the VLBW range, who had a more favorable set of biomedical factors. CONCLUSIONS: Biomedical factors are of major importance for the cognitive development of VLBW infants, and their influence increases as birth weight declines. Differences in neurological integrity at 1 year were an important indicator of different patterns of cognitive development, especially for infants at the lower end of the VLBW range.

Child Development↗

Serum-free amino acid concentrations in low birth weight infants during the first 4 weeks of life.

To obtain more information about the correct protein intake in low birth weight children, serum amino acid concentrations were determined. In 59 formula-fed, low birth weight children, serum amino acid concentrations were determined at 3, 24 and 72 h after birth and at the age of 1, 2, 3 and 4 weeks. Mean serum concentrations of all amino acids decreased during the first 24 h of life, except of aspartate and tyrosine. This decrease was followed by an increase during the first weeks of life and a variable pattern afterwards. A hypertyrosinemia (serum-tyrosine concentration > 250 mumol/l) was not found in any case. Taurine concentrations decreased gradually, as was expected because of the low taurine concentrations in cow's milk. Mean concentrations of alanine, glycine, proline and valine were higher in small for date children. Concluding, parenteral supplementation of amino acids is advisable during the first days of life to low birth weight children.

Amino Acids↗

Elevated concentrations of 13,14-dihydro-15-keto-prostaglandin F-2 alpha in maternal plasma during prepartum luteolysis and parturition in dogs (Canis familiaris).

Concentrations of progesterone and of 13,14-dihydro-15-keto-prostaglandin F-2 alpha (PGFM) were measured in plasma collected from 6 bitches every 3 h starting 2.8-4.6 days before parturition (birth of first pup) and continuing until 0.4-0.8 days post partum, and in additional samples collected less frequently. Progesterone concentrations at 48, 24, 12 and 3 h pre partum averaged 2.8 +/- 0.3, 2.2 +/- 0.4, 1.0 +/- 0.3 and 0.7 +/- 0.2 ng/ml. At those times PGFM values averaged 380 +/- 80, 800 +/- 220, 1450 +/- 450 and 1930 +/- 580 pg/ml, respectively. Mean concentrations of PGFM increased about 2.5-fold between 48 and 15 h pre partum in association with the onset of luteolysis, and then increased another 2.5 times before parturition as progesterone fell to nadir values. Peak levels of PGFM ranged from 1060 to 7150 pg/ml (2100 +/- 600 pg/ml) and occurred within 1-9 h after the birth of the first pup and before the birth of the last pup. These results suggest that prepartum luteolysis in dogs is initiated by increases in maternal concentrations of PGF, and that progesterone withdrawal causes a further increase in PGF which completes luteolysis and provides a major portion of the uterotonic activity causing expulsion of pups.

Animals↗

Exogenous estrogens and other risk factors for breast cancer in women with benign breast diseases.

A group of 1,439 white women who were initially treated for biopsy-proved benign breast diseases from 1942 to 1975 in a single private surgery practice were followed through 1976 for development of breast cancer. Information on age, parity, and use of noncontraceptive estrogens was collected on all women at the time of their initial benign lesions. At follow-up, ages at menarche, menopause, and birth of first child were obtained, as was information on use of estrogens after the initial lesion. Slides from the initial lesion were reinterpreted and classified by a panel of pathologists. The influence of gross and microscopic features of the initial benign conditions on subsequent risk of breast cancer was ascertained and reported previously. This paper presents results of additional analyses based largely on Cox's proportional hazards model. Risk of breast cancer was related to nulliparity and ages at menarche and birth of first child and to a lesser extent to age at artificial menopause. Exogenous estrogen taken prior to the initial benign lesion did not alter risk of breast cancer. Subsequent use, primarily of conjugated estrogens, eliminated the protective effect of an artificial menopause and appeared to act synergistically with epithelial hyperplasia or papillomatosis in the initial lesion and calcification of that lesion to increase the risk of breast cancer. A marked increase in risk of breast cancer in succeeding birth cohorts was unexpectedly found that could not be explained by temporal changes in any of the other risk factors considered.

Adult↗

Longitudinal study of plasma ACTH and cortisol in very low birth weight infants in the first 8 weeks of life.

There are few published data on plasma ACTH and cortisol in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants beyond the first week of life. We therefore measured plasma ACTH and cortisol longitudinally in 25 infants (mean birth weight 1025 g, mean gestational age 28 weeks) at 1, 2, 4 and 8 postnatal weeks to document normative values for infants not receiving dexamethasone. We also examined the influence of clinical state and dexamethasone treatment on plasma ACTH and cortisol levels. Median plasma ACTH increased significantly with advancing postnatal age from 1 week to 8 weeks (21.0 vs. 40.0 ng/l; P = 0.01) but did not correlate with postconceptional age. Median plasma cortisol decreased significantly with advancing postnatal age from 1 week to 8 weeks (216 vs. 50 nmol/l; P = 0.001) and correlated inversely with postconceptional age (P = 0.004). At 8 weeks infants who were clinically well (n = 6) had lower plasma ACTH values compared with sick (n = 6) infants (median: 37.0 vs. 63.5 ng/l; P = 0.033). Plasma ACTH did not correlate with clinical state at 1, 2 and 4 weeks. At none of the postnatal ages studied was plasma cortisol influenced by the degree of sickness. Five infants received dexamethasone to assist weaning from mechanical ventilation. Their median plasma ACTH level, at 8 weeks, was significantly lower than that of the 12 infants who did not receive dexamethasone (11.0 vs. 40.0 ng/l; P = 0.0006). Plasma cortisol was not significantly influenced by dexamethasone treatment (P = 0.27). These data provide further information on the evolution of adrenocortical function in VLBW infants in the first months of life.

Adrenocorticotropic Hormone↗

Extracellular fluid volume changes in very low birth weight infants during first 2 postnatal months.

Serial extracellular volume (ECV) changes were measured in 18 infants of less than 32 weeks gestation. Results were compared with changes in body weight, fluid and sodium intake, urine output, and serum sodium concentration. Mean +/- SD ECV decreased from 550 +/- 116 mL/kg on day 1 to 359 +/- 66 mL/kg on day 14. Thereafter, mean ECV/kg remained between 336 +/- 42 and 349 +/- 54 mL/kg. Clinical hydration and serum sodium concentration usually remained normal during this reduction of stabilization of ECV/kg. Six episodes of hyponatremia occurred at 11 to 31 days of age. Mean ECV/kg was significantly lower in infants with hyponatremia compared with infants of similar age with normal serum sodium concentration (303 +/- 36 mL/kg vs 368 +/- 56 mL/kg, P less than 0.01). Sodium intake in the two groups was similar. We conclude that ECV in the VLBW infant decreases postnatally and is regulated within a range similar to that in older infants, and that postnatal natriuresis in the first 2 weeks of life represents physiologic reduction of the expanded ECV of the fetus. Late hyponatremia may indicate excessive sodium loss and ECV depletion.

Bromides↗

Anal incontinence after childbirth.

BACKGROUND: Incontinence of stool and flatus are frequent complications of childbirth. We examined the prevalence and possible causes of these adverse outcomes in a large cohort of women. METHODS: We studied 949 pregnant women who gave birth in 5 hospitals in 1995/96 in the province of Quebec. These women, participants in a randomized controlled trial of prenatal perineal massage, completed a self-administered questionnaire 3 months after giving birth. RESULTS: Three months after delivery 29 women (3.1%) reported incontinence of stool, and 242 (25.5%) had involuntary escape of flatus. Incontinence of stool was more frequent among women who delivered vaginally and had third- or fourth-degree perineal tears than among those who delivered vaginally and had no anal sphincter tears (7.8% v. 2.9%). Forceps delivery (adjusted risk ratio [RR] 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-2.08) and anal sphincter tears (adjusted RR 2.09, 95% CI 1.40-3.13) were independent risk factors for incontinence of flatus or stool or both. Anal sphincter injury was strongly and independently associated with first vaginal birth (RR 39.2, 95% CI 5.4-282.5), median episiotomy (adjusted RR 9.6, 95% CI 3.2-28.5), forceps delivery (adjusted RR 12.3, 95% CI 3.0-50.4) and vacuum-assisted delivery (adjusted RR 7.4, 95% CI 1.9-28.5) but not with birth weight (adjusted RR for nirth weight 4000 g or more: 1.4, 95% CI 0.6-3.0) or length of the second stage of labour (adjusted RR for second stage 1.5 hours or longer compared with less than 0.5 hours: 1.2, 95% CI 0.5-2.7). INTERPRETATION: Anal incontinence is associated with forceps delivery and anal sphincter laceration. Anal sphincter laceration is strongly predicted by first vaginal birth, median episiotomy, and forceps or vacuum delivery but not by birth weight or length of the second stage of labour.

Anal Canal↗

Comparison of cation-osmotic haemolysis in normal and low birth weight newborns during the first month of life.

The present study was designed to compare cation-osmotic haemolysis (COH) in normal versus low birth weight newborns during the first month of postnatal life. COH was assessed in 80 normal (NBW) and 45 low birth weight newborns (LBW). A significant decrease in COH in the solutions with low ionic strength (15.4-30.8 mmol.l-1 NaCl) was found in LBW in the early period after birth when compared with NBW (p<0.01; p<0.001). In the solutions with high ionic strength (123.2-154.0 mmol.l-1 NaCl), COH again was significantly lower in LBW than in NBW neonates (p<0.01; p<0.001). The differences in COH were still present after both two weeks and one month of postnatal life but only in the solutions with the highest ionic strength (138.6-154.0 mmol.l-1 NaCl) (p<0.01; p<0.001). To conclude, our study demonstrates that COH is significantly lower in LBW than in NBW neonates. Furthermore, the latter show still lower values than adults. Finally, the relationship between COH and erythrocyte deformability is discussed.

Cations↗

Subfertility reflects accelerated ovarian ageing.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to explore the extent to which accelerated ovarian ageing may lead to subfertility early in reproductive life and eventually cause early menopause. METHODS: The population studied (n = 2393) never used oral contraceptives, hormone replacement therapy or an intrauterine device. Logistic regression analyses were performed using age at menopause as proxy for accelerated ovarian ageing. Measures of ovarian ageing and subfertility were menstrual cycle irregularity, ever consulted a physician for fertility problems, nulliparity, uniparity, miscarriage(s) and time interval >5 years between birth of first and second child. RESULTS: For every 5 years later menopause, the probability of reporting menstrual cycle irregularity was reduced by 26% (OR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.63-0.86); the probability of ever consulting a physician for fertility problems was reduced by 18% (OR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.71-0.95); the probability of staying nulliparous was reduced by 22% (OR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.64-0.96); the probability of being uniparous was reduced by 22% (OR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.66-0.91); the probability of having a miscarriage was reduced by 11% (OR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.79-1.01); the probability of a large time interval between birth of first two children was reduced by 27% (OR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.61-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: Fertility problems are frequently followed by early menopause. The findings support the view that both are an expression of accelerated ovarian ageing.

Abortion, Spontaneous↗

Association of menstrual and reproductive factors with breast cancer risk: results from the Shanghai Breast Cancer Study.

The incidence of breast cancer among women in Shanghai, a traditionally low-risk population, has increased substantially over the past 20 years. To evaluate the association of menstrual and reproductive factors with breast cancer risk and the influence of these factors on the temporal trend of breast cancer incidence, we analyzed data from the Shanghai Breast Cancer Study, a population-based case-control study of breast cancer recently completed among Chinese women in urban Shanghai. In-person interviews were completed for 1,459 women newly diagnosed with breast cancer between ages 25 and 64 and for 1,556 controls frequency-matched to cases by age. Unconditional logistic regression was employed to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) related to menstrual and reproductive factors. Earlier menarcheal age, nulliparity, and later age at first live birth were associated with increased risk of breast cancer among both pre- and post-menopausal women, while never having breast-fed and later age at menopause were associated with elevated risk only among post-menopausal women. Among controls, 32% of younger women (</=40 years) and 24% of older women (>40 years) reported starting menarche at age of 13 or younger, and this factor contributed to 44% of cases diagnosed among younger women and 26% to 28% of cases in older women. Older age at first live birth or at menopause explained a considerable portion of cases diagnosed in older, but not younger, women. Our study suggests that the changes in menstrual and reproductive patterns among women in Shanghai have contributed to the recent increase in breast cancer incidence, particularly among younger women.

Adult↗

Tubal infertility and the intrauterine device.

To study the association between intrauterine devices (IUDs) and pelvic inflammatory disease, we compared contraceptive histories in 4185 while women--283 nulliparous women with primary tubal infertility, 69 women with secondary tubal infertility, and 3833 women admitted for delivery at seven collaborating hospitals from 1981 to 1983. The relative risk of tubal infertility associated with IUD use was calculated by means of multivariate logistic regression to control for confounding factors, including region, year of menarche, religion, education, smoking, and reported number of sexual partners. The adjusted risk of primary tubal infertility associated with any IUD use before a first live birth was 2.0 (95 per cent confidence limits, 1.5 to 2.6) relative to nonuse. Users of the Dalkon Shield had an adjusted risk of 3.3 (1.7 to 6.1), users of the Lippes Loop or Saf-T-Coil had a risk of 2.9 (1.7 to 5.2), and users of copper IUDs had a risk of 1.6 (1.1 to 2.4). Women who reported having only one sexual partner had no increased risk of primary tubal infertility associated with IUD use. The adjusted risk of secondary tubal infertility associated with use of a copper IUD after a first live birth was not statistically significant (1.5; 95 per cent confidence limits, 0.8 to 3.0), whereas the risk from similar use of noncopper devices was significant (2.8; 1.3 to 5.9). We conclude that tubal infertility is associated with IUD use, but less so with copper IUDs.

Adult↗