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Determinants of variation in the cost of inpatient stays versus outpatient visits in hospitals: a multi-country analysis.

Information on hospital costs is key to many types of economic and financial analyses, yet many countries lack reliable estimates due partly to the time and resources required to undertake detailed costing studies. Accordingly, some analysts have used simple rules of thumb to estimate hospital unit costs, e.g., total hospital costs are allocated between departments assuming that the cost of an inpatient day equals a fixed number of outpatient visits. This paper first explores the extent to which these simple rules apply within and across countries. It then identifies determinants of variation in the relationship between the cost of outpatient visits and inpatient days, then uses the estimated relationship to calculate average costs of inpatient and outpatient stays for countries where data are not yet available. Cost information from 832 hospitals in 28 countries are used. We show that simple rules of thumb do not prove to be an accurate basis for cost estimates. The ratio of inpatient to outpatient unit costs varies with GDP per capita, hospital size, ownership, and occupancy rate. We show how the estimated relationship can be used to calculate a mean cost of inpatient stays and outpatient visits, taking into account differences in the levels of key determinants, and argue that, in the absence of a representative sample of hospital costing studies, this method can be used to estimate unit costs in the interim. Moreover, we suggest that the observed great variation in unit costs for similar hospitals in the same country means that this method might well be preferable to basing policy advice on the results of costing studies that cover only one, or a few hospitals, which might well be outliers.

Ambulatory Care↗

Biological signals as handicaps.

An ESS model of Zahavi's handicap principle is constructed. This allows a formal exposition of how the handicap principle works, and shows that its essential elements are strategic. The handicap model is about signalling, and it is proved under fairly general conditions that if the handicap principle's conditions are met, then an evolutionarily stable signalling equilibrium exists in a biological signalling system, and that any signalling equilibrium satisfies the conditions of the handicap principle. Zahavi's major claims for the handicap principle are thus vindicated. The place of cheating is discussed in view of the honesty that follows from the handicap principle. Parallel signalling models in economics are discussed. Interpretations of the handicap principle are compared. The models are not fully explicit about how females use information about male quality, and, less seriously, have no genetics. A companion paper remedies both defects in a model of the handicap principle at work in sexual selection.

Animal Communication↗

Impact of universal Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccination starting at 2 months of age in the United States: an economic analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the economic impact of universal Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccination starting at 2 months of age. METHODS: Decision-tree-based analysis was conducted of a hypothetical US birth cohort of 3 815 469 infants using population-based vaccination coverage and disease incidence data. All costs were estimated from both the direct cost (medical and nonmedical) and societal perspectives. Net present value, cost-effectiveness ratios, and benefit-cost ratios of the US Hib vaccination program were evaluated. RESULTS: The results of these analyses showed that the universal vaccination program using the Hib conjugate vaccines in the United States in 2000 was cost-saving from both the direct and societal perspectives, with the benefit of the Hib vaccination program (net present value) from the direct cost and societal perspectives of $0.95 billion and $2.09 billion, respectively. Without a Hib vaccination program, the direct and societal costs of Hib invasive cases would be $1.35 billion and $2.58 billion, respectively. The direct and societal costs of the Hib vaccination program were estimated at $0.39 billion and $0.48 billion, respectively. The direct and societal benefit-cost ratios for the Hib vaccination program were 3.4 and 5.4, respectively. Varying the proportion of vaccines purchased and administered in the public versus the private sector and the proportion of combination vaccine versus monovalent vaccine administered did not have much effect on the results. CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of the perspective (direct cost or societal) and the assumptions used, the benefit-cost ratios of the US vaccination program are >1.0. Potential changes in the program, including use of more or less Hib combination vaccines, would not significantly alter the benefit-cost ratio. The national Hib vaccination program is highly cost beneficial and results in substantial cost savings.

Cohort Studies↗

A model of long-term metabolic progression of type 2 diabetes mellitus for evaluating treatment strategies.

AIM: To develop a novel metabolic computer model of the natural lifetime progression of type 2 diabetes that generates dynamic risk factor trajectories consistent with prespecified lifetime therapeutic strategies, in order to enhance the long-term economic and outcome modelling of type 2 diabetes and its complications. METHODS: The main model drivers of progressive disease were changes in insulin sensitivity and islet beta-cell function derived from an analysis of follow-up results from the Belfast Diet Study. These were related to clinical measures through an adaptation of the homeostasis model assessment. Established causal relationships estimating body mass index, lipids and blood pressure from measures of glycaemia and plasma insulin were calibrated using Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (USA) data, standardizing for age, sex, ethnicity and smoking. The effects of individual interventions were calibrated using published trial evidence, in line with the current understanding of the main modes of action of each agent. RESULTS: A comparison of the effects of common therapies using the model showed both similarities and differences. Large improvements in glycaemic control from lifestyle modifications, further enhanced by oral glucose-lowering drugs or insulin, were reproduced. Projections comparing lifetime therapeutic strategies suggest that simple guidelines may not always be valid. CONCLUSION: This novel mathematical model using evidence from the long-term natural history of type 2 diabetes is able to project the expected effects of various antihyperglycaemic therapies. Coupled with an economic model, this metabolic model may provide a mechanism for healthcare professionals and policymakers to evaluate different long-term strategies for the management of type 2 diabetes.

Blood Pressure↗

Economic analysis of two models of low-risk maternity care: a freestanding birth center compared to traditional care.

Costs were compared for two models of maternity care for low-risk pregnant women: a freestanding birth center (FSBC) and a medical model of care (MC). Sixty-nine subjects were enrolled in the FSBC group and 77 in the MC. In the FSBC group, prenatal costs were higher (mean difference $751, p </=.001) and childbirth care was less expensive ($1472, p </=.01). When costs for the entire maternity care episode were summed, there were no differences between groups ($6087 vs. $6803). Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the FSBC could be more cost-effective than MC if it increased its volume.

Adult↗

Dynamic competition in pharmaceuticals. Patent expiry, generic penetration, and industry structure.

This paper investigates patterns of industrial dynamics and competition in the pharmaceutical industry, with particular reference to the consequences of patent expiry in different countries. We focus on the competition at the level of single chemical entities, distinguishing between original brands and generic products. Quarterly data, spanning from July 1987 to December 1998, on sales of pharmaceutical products in four countries (USA, UK, Germany, and France) constitute the basis of our analysis. All the products containing major molecules whose patent expiration date lies between 1986 and 1996 are included in our sample. We show how diffusion of generics is linked to the characteristics of the market and investigate how price dynamics of original products are affected by generic competition. Our empirical investigation shows that the dynamics of drug prices and the competition by generic drugs vary significantly across countries. This heterogeneity notwithstanding, a clear distinction seems to emerge. On the one hand, systems that rely on market-based competition in pharmaceuticals promote a clear distinction between firms that act as innovators and firms that act as imitators after patent expiry. Here, original products enjoy premium prices and exclusivity profits under patent protection, and face fierce price competition after patent expiry. On the other hand, in systems that rely on administered prices, penetration by generic drugs tends to be rather limited. Its descriptive and preliminary nature notwithstanding, our analysis seems to have relevant implications at different levels of generality, especially for Europe.

Costs and Cost Analysis↗

Chapter 18: Public health policy for cervical cancer prevention: the role of decision science, economic evaluation, and mathematical modeling.

Several factors are changing the landscape of cervical cancer control, including a better understanding of the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV), reliable assays for detecting high-risk HPV infections, and a soon to be available HPV-16/18 vaccine. There are important differences in the relevant policy questions for different settings. By synthesizing and integrating the best available data, the use of modeling in a decision analytic framework can identify those factors most likely to influence outcomes, can guide the design of future clinical studies and operational research, can provide insight into the cost-effectiveness of different strategies, and can assist in early decision-making when considered with criteria such as equity, public preferences, and political and cultural constraints.

Decision Making, Organizational↗

Flows of knowledge from universities and federal laboratories: modeling the flow of patent citations over time and across institutional and geographic boundaries.

The extent to which new technological knowledge flows across institutional and national boundaries is a question of great importance for public policy and the modeling of economic growth. In this paper we develop a model of the process generating subsequent citations to patents as a lens for viewing knowledge diffusion. We find that the probability of patent citation over time after a patent is granted fits well to a double-exponential function that can be interpreted as the mixture of diffusion and obsolescense functions. The results indicate that diffusion is geographically localized. Controlling for other factors, within-country citations are more numerous and come more quickly than those that cross country boundaries.

Canada↗

A health-economic decision-analytic model comparing double with single embryo transfer in IVF/ICSI.

BACKGROUND: Single embryo transfer (SET) is the sole strategy with which to reduce the incidence of twins following assisted reproductive technology (ART), but SET may increase the number of ART cycles needed per live-born child. Its cost-effectiveness compared with double embryo transfer (DET) is therefore unknown. METHODS: A decision-analytic model comparing SET with DET was developed. Estimates were obtained from literature, national pregnancy registers and local hospital records. A sensitivity analysis was performed, using pregnancy rates from four published studies. The outcome measure was the cost per child born, calculated from IVF procedure-related, pregnancy-related and neonatal care costs. Neonatal mortality and long-term morbidity costs were not taken into account. RESULTS: Independently of the pregnancy rates used, the SET cost per child born was in all instances the same as with DET, varying from EURO= 9520 (SET) versus EURO= 9511 (DET) to EURO= 12254 (SET) versus EURO= 12934 (DET). CONCLUSIONS: More ART cycles are required to obtain the same numbers of children born following SET compared with DET. Because SET allows the avoidance of twins and thus diminishes pregnancy-related and neonatal care costs, there is no difference in the cost per child born between SET and DET. The real advantage of SET is the avoidance of the very high long-term costs resulting from the increased morbidity of twins after birth.

Cost-Benefit Analysis↗

The cost-effectiveness of expanding harm reduction activities for injecting drug users in Odessa, Ukraine.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a harm reduction intervention among injecting drug users (IDUs) in Odessa, Ukraine; and to explore how the cost-effectiveness changes if the intervention were scaled up to 60% as recommended by WHO/UNAIDS. STUDY DESIGN: Economic providers' costs were estimated. A dynamic mathematical model, fitted to epidemiologic data, projected the intervention's impact. The cost per HIV infection averted for different intervention coverages was estimated. RESULTS: From September 1999 to August 2000, at the current coverage of between 20% to 38% and an injection drug user (IDU) HIV prevalence of 54%, projections suggest 792 HIV infections were averted, a 22% decrease in IDU HIV incidence, but a 1% increase in IDU HIV prevalence. Cost per HIV infection averted was $97. Scaling up the intervention to reach 60% of IDUs remains cost-effective and reduces HIV prevalence by 4% over 5 years. CONCLUSION: At the current coverage, the harm reduction intervention in Odessa is cost-effective but is unlikely to reduce IDU HIV prevalence in the short-term. To reduce HIV prevalence, more resources are needed to increase coverage.

Adult↗

Life cycle emission distributions within the economy: implications for life cycle impact assessment.

Refinements of methods for life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) are directed at removing unjustified simplifications and quantifying and reducing uncertainties in results. The amount of uncertainty reduction that is actually achieved through LCIA method refinement depends on the structure of the life cycle inventory model. We investigate the general structure of inventory models using an economic input/output (I/O) life cycle assessment model of the U.S. economy. In particular, we study the results of applying a streamlining algorithm to the I/O LCA model. The streamlining algorithm retains only those "branches" of the process tree that are jointly required to account for a specified fraction of the total impacts upstream of each point in the tree. We examine the implications of these "tree pruning" results for site-informed LCIA. Percentiles are presented for U.S. commodities and several important pollutants, for the share of total upstream emissions contributed by the set of processes in each supply tier, that is, each set of processes that directly supply inputs to another set of processes Capturing at least 90% of the total direct plus upstream emissions for criteria air pollutants and toxic releases for at least 75% of the commodities in the U.S. economy requires full modeling of direct emissions plus the first five supply tiers. The requirements for capturing a high percentage (e.g., >80%) of total emissions vary widely across products or commodities. To capture more than 60% of total emissions for more than half of all commodities requires models with more than 4,000 process instances. To well characterize the total impacts of products, life cycle impact assessment methods must characterize foreground process impacts in a site-informed way and mean impacts of far-removed processes in an unbiased way.

Air Pollutants↗

Labor supply and consumption of food in a closed economy under a range of fixed- and random-ratio schedules: tests of unit price.

The behavioral economic concept of unit price predicts that consumption and response output (labor supply) are determined by the unit price at which a good is available regardless of the value of the cost and benefit components of the unit price ratio. Experiment 1 assessed 4 pigeons' consumption and response output at a range of unit prices. In one condition, food was available according to a range of fixed-ratio schedules, whereas in the other condition, food was available according to a range of random-ratio schedules. Consistent with unit price predictions, consumption and response output were approximately equivalent across schedule types within the lower range of unit prices. However, at Unit Prices 64 (ratio value = 192) and greater, considerably more consumption and response output were observed in the random-ratio condition. Experiment 2 replicated these findings with 4 pigeons using the rapid demand curve assay procedure that is commonly used in the behavioral economics literature. Findings are integrated with two mathematical models of behavior under variable reinforcer delays.

Animals↗

Systemic therapy in breast cancer: efficacy and cost utility.

Cancer treatment accounts for a large proportion of healthcare costs. Often, new treatment modalities provide benefits, but at high costs. The impression that cancer treatment is expensive is enhanced by publicity surrounding treatments like bone marrow transplantation. There is a need to evaluate costs of different treatment approaches and to address the cost utility of cancer treatment in general compared with therapies for other conditions. Breast cancer can serve as a good model for economic evaluation of cancer treatment because of the broad range of treatment options and objectives it encompasses, and also because well defined benefits can be achieved. The cost utility of contemporary adjuvant therapy strategies, specifically chemotherapy in premenopausal women and hormonal treatment in estrogen-receptor (ER) positive pre- as well as postmenopausal women, seems favourable. Cost-utility ratios {cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained} range from $US4000 to $US10 000. However, hormonal treatment in ER-negative women may be associated with cost-per-QALY ratios of $US50 000 to $US200 000. So far there are no published cost-utility analyses of neo-adjuvant therapy or adjuvant bone marrow transplantation as the long term effects of these treatment options are undefined. Few data exist on cost utilities of systemic drug treatment in advanced breast cancer, although drugs may account for only a moderate part of the total treatment and caring costs. Bone marrow transplantation in patients with metastatic breast cancer costs about $US100 000 per QALY, which is expensive.

Bone Marrow Transplantation↗