Has the Philippines backed into a demographic trap?
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OBJECTIVE: A systematic genome survey was initiated to identify loci that affect the likelihood of reaching age 90 with preserved cognition. This communication describes the clinical characterization and comparison of the experimental groups, validation of the experimental method, and results for the Y chromosome. METHODS: The genome survey was conducted at 10 cM resolution for simple sequence tandem repeat polymorphisms (SSTRPs) that identify genes for successful aging by virtue of linkage disequilibrium. Efficiency was enhanced by genotyping pools of DNA from 100 cognitively intact elders (50 men/50 women) and 100 young (age 18-25 years) adults matched for sex, race, ethnicity, and geographic location. RESULTS: Elders (94 nonagenarians, 6 centenarians) manifested preserved cognition, as reflected by clinical and psychometric assessments; "good" average capacity to carry out their activities of daily living; and the majority were living independently despite multiple medical conditions. None had a history of mental disorders in early or middle adulthood, only one was a current smoker, and 80% consumed alcohol less than once each month. The genome survey method detected the expected elevation of the APOE epsilon2 allele frequency, and reciprocal reduction in the epsilon4 frequency, among the elders, compared with the young adults. It also detected significant differences in the allelic distributions of DYS389 and DYS390, which are separated by only 2.6 Mb near the centromere of Yq. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that several behavioral and genetic factors may contribute to the likelihood of achieving exceptional longevity with preserved cognition.
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This bulletin examines the narrowing margin between global food production and population growth. Between 1950 and 1971, world grain production nearly doubled and per capita production increased 31%. During the 1970s, gains in output barely kept pace with population growth, consumption/person declined in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia, food prices were volatile, and over 100 food deficit countries came to depend on the exportable surplus of North America, now the only major grain exporting region. The world fish catch levelled off in the early 1970s and beef production, still dependent mainly on grassland grazing, levelled off in the mid-1970s. With little new land left to plow, satisfying increased food demand now depends on sharp increases in yields on existing crop land. Worldwide, this effort is hampered by loss of topsoil and irrigated land, conversion of cropland to nonfarm uses, rising energy costs, inefficient agrarian structures, particularly in the Soviet Union, the falling yield response to chemical fertilizers in agriculturally advanced countries, and the emerging competition between food and agriculturally based energy crops. Green Revolution successes in some developing countries deomonstrate that, given the right inputs, 3rd world farmers can increase crop yields dramatically. Feeding the world's poor also requires more equitable income and food distribution, including a reduction in the proportion of grain and fish consumed indirectly as livestock products by the affluent. Most important in meeting food needs on a finite planet is braking population growth. The author concludes that every effort should be made to stabilize world production at abour 6 billion by 2020, rather than 10.5 billion by 2110, as is now projected by the UN.
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