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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources
PubMed2006

Modeling the effect of population dynamics on the impact of rabbit hemorrhagic disease.

The European wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) is a staple prey species in Mediterranean ecosystems. The arrival and subsequent spread of rabbit hemorrhagic disease throughout southwestern Europe, however has caused a decline in rabbit numbers, leading to considerable efforts to enhance wild rabbit populations, especially through habitat management. Because rabbit population dynamics depend on habitat suitability and changes in habitat structure and composition subsequent to habitat management, I evaluated the effects of population dynamics on the long-term impact of rabbit hemorrhagic disease on rabbit populations. I used an age-structured model with varying degrees of population productivity and turnover and different habitat carrying capacities, and I assumed the existence of a unique, highly pathogenic virus. My results suggest that disease impact may be highly dependent on habitat carrying capacity and rabbit population dynamics, and the model provided some insight into the current abundance of wild rabbits in different locations in southwestern Europe. The highest disease impact was estimated for populations located in habitats with low to medium carrying capacity In contrast, disease impact was lower in high-density populations in habitats with high carrying capacity, corresponding to a lower mean age of rabbit infection and a resulting lower mortality from rabbit hemorrhagic disease. The outcomes of the model suggest that management strategies to help rabbit populations recover should be based on improving habitats to their maximum carrying capacity and increasing rabbit population productivity. In contrast, the use of strategies based on temporary increases in rabbit density, including vaccination campaigns, translocations, and temporal habitat improvements at medium carrying capacities, may increase disease impact, resulting in short-term decreases in rabbit population density.

Animals↗
PubMed1998

Molecular analysis of yeast population dynamics: effect of sulphur dioxide and inoculum on must fermentation.

The effects of sulphur dioxide and a commercial starter inoculum on yeast population dynamics have been analysed by a molecular approach. Yeast identification from fermenting Carinyena grape musts was performed by RFLP's of mtDNA and rRNA-coding DNA. As expected, the use of a commercial inoculum speeded up the start of fermentation, while SO2 addition limited the development of non-Saccharomyces species. However, this effect was also observed with yeast inoculation. Further analysis of population dynamics could lead to a recommendation for the reduction of the dosage of SO2 by the addition of appropriate inoculum of yeasts in the must. Furthermore, the timing of inoculum addition could be modified to allow a proper contribution of non-Saccharomyces species. Molecular biology analysis of population dynamics could provide a tool to efficiently reduce the dosage of SO2 and adjust the timing of inoculum addition.

DNA, Mitochondrial↗
PubMed2003

The effect of aggressiveness on the population dynamics of a territorial bird.

A central issue in ecology lies in identifying the importance of resources, natural enemies and behaviour in the regulation of animal populations. Much of the debate on this subject has focused on animals that show cyclic fluctuations in abundance. However, there is still disagreement about the role of extrinsic (food, parasites or predators) and intrinsic (behaviour) factors in causing cycles. Recent studies have examined the impact of natural enemies, although spatial patterns resulting from restricted dispersal or recruitment are increasingly recognized as having the potential to influence unstable population dynamics. We tested the hypothesis that population cycles in a territorial bird, red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus, are caused by delayed density-dependent changes in the aggressiveness and spacing behaviour of males. Here we show that increasing aggressiveness experimentally for a short period in autumn reduced recruitment and subsequent breeding density by 50%, and changed population trajectories from increasing to declining. Intrinsic processes can therefore have fundamental effects on population dynamics.

Aggression↗
PubMed2001

Prey preference, intraguild predation and population dynamics of an arthropod food web on plants.

The theory of intraguild predation (IGP) largely studies effects on equilibrium densities of predators and prey, while experiments mostly concern transient dynamics. We studied the effects of an intraguild (IG) predator, the bug Orius laevigatus, on the population dynamics of IG-prey, the predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis, and a shared prey, the phytophagous two-spotted spider mite Tetranychus urticae, as well as on the performance of cucumber plants in a greenhouse. The interaction of the predatory mite and the spider mite is highly unstable, and ends either by herbivores overexploiting the plant or predators exterminating the herbivores. We studied the effect of IGP on the transient dynamics of this system, and compared the dynamics with that predicted by a simple population-dynamical model with IGP added. Behavioural studies showed that the predatory bug and the predatory mite were both attracted to plants infested by spider mites and that the two predators did not avoid plants occupied by the other predator. Observations on foraging behaviour of the predatory bug showed that it attacks and kills large numbers of predatory mites and spider mites. The model predicts strong effects of predation and prey preference by the predatory bugs on the dynamics of predatory mites and spider mites. However, experiments in which the predatory bug was added to populations of predatory mites and spider mites had little or no effect on numbers of both mite species, and cucumber plant and fruit weight.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Hidden process models for animal population dynamics.

Hidden process models are a conceptually useful and practical way to simultaneously account for process variation in animal population dynamics and measurement errors in observations and estimates made on the population. Process variation, which can be both demographic and environmental, is modeled by linking a series of stochastic and deterministic subprocesses that characterize processes such as birth, survival, maturation, and movement. Observations of the population can be modeled as functions of true abundance with realistic probability distributions to describe observation or estimation error. Computer-intensive procedures, such as sequential Monte Carlo methods or Markov chain Monte Carlo, condition on the observed data to yield estimates of both the underlying true population abundances and the unknown population dynamics parameters. Formulation and fitting of a hidden process model are demonstrated for Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytsha).

Animals↗
PubMed1993

Population dynamics of Phlebotomus papatasi (Diptera:Phlebotomidae) in Pondicherry, India.

Investigations on the population dynamics of Phlebotomus papatasi were carried out. The average indoor resting density fluctuated between 16.70 and 2.25/man-hour in different seasons with a maximum density during monsoon season. There was a significant positive correlation between density and rainfall. Probability of daily survival of adult population was high in monsoon and low in summer. Both relative humidity and temperature influenced the survival. The finite rate of natural increase of the field population was maximum in October and minimum in April. The monsoon season, with moderate temperature and relative humidity was found to be favourable for the growth of P. papatasi population.

Animals↗
PubMed1990

Population dynamics of bulk milk somatic cell counts.

The population dynamics for bulk milk SCC in 27,000 Dutch dairy farms was studied over 6 yr; SCC declined markedly in 1984 and 1985. This coincided with the introduction of the quota system in the European Community. The CV of SCC was .36, ranging from .15 to .89. Month of year had a significant effect on SCC with the highest SCC in October and the lowest in April. The dynamics of the annual SCC were modeled with a state transition model. Farmers managing herds with a fairly low SCC (less than 450,000) had a reasonable chance to remain in these states. Herds with a higher annual SCC were much more variable. The model simulated, the potential reactions of the farmers to the decrease of the SCC limit from 750,000 to 500,000 starting January 1, 1989. The simulations showed a further decrease in mean annual SCC, although the number of farms in the category with a very low SCC (less than 150,000) is not likely to increase. In all simulations an increased number of farmers will receive a penalty due to the more strict regulations of the European Community.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Population dynamics of clock-controlled biological species: models and why circadian rhythms are circadian.

Conventional models of population dynamics of biological species do not take into account the fact that activity of most living organisms is under control of biological clocks, which are oscillators with periods near 1 day, 1 year, and so on. Here proposed are new categories of population dynamics models which are combinations of Lotka-Volterra type of equations (as a simplest example; in fact, an arbitrary type may be used) and equations of the biological oscillators. Such models may be particularly useful in addressing to those problems which are inaccessible with conventional models. A simple example of such models with distributed clock periods is proposed and studied numerically and analytically to consider why periods of biological rhythms are not precisely one day or one year, etc., as is often questioned. For this purpose, a notion of survival index is introduced to measure the degree of success in survival. It turns out that clock periods equal or close to that of the milieu are not necessarily advantageous for survival and can even lead to extinction; survival is then most successful at the edge of entrainment. This may provide a clue to answer the question. It is also found that survival is difficult for those species which cannot be entrained by the environmental cycle.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Population dynamics of thrips prey and their mite predators in a refuge.

Prey refuges are expected to affect population dynamics, but direct experimental tests of this hypothesis are scarce. Larvae of western flower thrips Frankliniella occidentalis use the web produced by spider mites as a refuge from predation by the predatory mite Neoseiulus cucumeris. Thrips incur a cost of using the refuge through reduced food quality within the web due to spider mite herbivory, resulting in a reduction of thrips developmental rate. These individual costs and benefits of refuge use were incorporated in a stage-structured predator-prey model developed for this system. The model predicted higher thrips numbers in presence than in absence of the refuge during the initial phase. A greenhouse experiment was carried out to test this prediction: the dynamics of thrips and their predators was followed on plants damaged by spider mites, either with or without web. Thrips densities in presence of predators were higher on plants with web than on unwebbed plants after 3 weeks. Experimental data fitted model predictions, indicating that individual-level measurements of refuge costs and benefits can be extrapolated to the level of interacting populations. Model-derived calculations of thrips population growth rate enable the estimation of the minimum predator density at which thrips benefit from using the web as a refuge. The model also predicted a minor effect of the refuge on the prey density at equilibrium, indicating that the effect of refuges on population dynamics hinges on the temporal scale considered.

Animals↗
PubMed1984

The population dynamics of Gyrodactylus bullatarudis (Monogenea) within laboratory populations of the fish host Poecilia reticulata.

Experiments were undertaken to investigate the factors which influence the transmission dynamics of Gyrodactylus bullatarudis within populations of laboratory guppies. The parasites possess a number of biological attributes which are almost unique amongst helminth parasites of vertebrates. These include the ability to reproduce viviparously and directly on the surface of the host, the ability to survive death of the host (for a short period of time) and the ability to transfer between hosts (despite the absence of a specialized transmission stage in the parasite's life-cycle). Long-term laboratory experiments demonstrated the inability of the parasite to persist within populations of the host in the absence of the continual introduction of naive susceptible fish. With regular addition of susceptible fish, the parasite population exhibited recurrent epidemic behaviour. The magnitudes of the epidemics and the time interval between them, were dependent on the rate at which fish were added to the populations. The parasite was over-dispersed in its distribution within the experimental fish populations and was a significant cause of host mortality (in a manner related to parasite burden). The experimental results suggest that acquired resistance to infection is an important factor determining epidemic behaviour.

Animals↗
PubMed1995

Population dynamics of feline immunodeficiency virus within cat populations.

A deterministic model was constructed for studying the circulation of Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV), a feline retrovirus homologous to Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), within populations of domestic cats. The model has been tested with data generated by a long-term study of several natural cat populations. Simulations and a study of stability show that once introduced, the retrovirus is maintained within the population, with a stable equilibrium stage reached by both numbers of susceptible and infected individuals. An estimation of parameters indicates that the transmission rate is low and depends on the structure of the population. In addition, FIV has a low impact on the population in that the total number of cats at equilibrium when this virus is present is almost always equal to the habitat carrying capacity in the absence of the virus. Those results, in agreement with other observations, suggest that FIV originally arose in the distant past.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Gene flow, historical population dynamics and genetic diversity within French Guianan populations of a rainforest tree species, Vouacapoua americana.

Both gene flow and historical events influence the genetic diversity of natural populations. One way to understand their respective impact is to analyze population genetic structure at large spatial scales. We studied the distribution of genetic diversity of 17 populations of Vouacapoua americana (Caesalpiniaceae) in French Guiana, using nine microsatellite loci. Low genetic diversity was observed within populations, with a mean allelic richness and gene diversity of 4.1 and 0.506, respectively, which could be due to low effective population size and/or past bottlenecks. Using the regression between Fst/(1-Fst), estimated between pairs of populations, and the logarithm of the geographical distance, the spatial genetic structure can partly be explained by isolation-by-distance and limited gene flow among populations. This result is in agreement with the species' biology, including seed and pollen dispersal by rodents and insects, respectively. In contrast, no clear genetic signal of historical events was found when examining genetic differentiation among populations in relation to biogeographical hypotheses or by testing for bottlenecks within populations. Our conclusion is that nuclear spatial genetic structure of V. americana, at the geographic scale of French Guiana, is better explained by gene flow rather than by historical events.

DNA, Plant↗
PubMed2003

On the relationship between time-series studies, dynamic population studies, and estimating loss of life due to short-term exposure to environmental risks.

There is a growing concern that short-term exposure to combustion-related air pollution is associated with increased risk of death. This finding is based largely on time-series studies that estimate associations between daily variations in ambient air pollution concentrations and in the number of nonaccidental deaths within a community. Because these results are not based on cohort or dynamic population designs, where individuals are followed in time, it has been suggested that estimates of effect from these time-series studies cannot be used to determine the amount of life lost because of short-term exposures. We show that results from time-series studies are equivalent to estimates obtained from a dynamic population when each individual's survival experience can be summarized as the daily number of deaths. This occurs when the following conditions are satisfied: a) the environmental covariates vary in time and not between individuals; b) on any given day, the probability of death is small; c) on any given day and after adjusting for known risk factors for mortality such age, sex, smoking habits, and environmental exposures, each subject of the at-risk population has the same probability of death; d) environmental covariates have a common effect on mortality of all members of at-risk population; and e) the averages of individual risk factors, such as smoking habits, over the at-risk population vary smoothly with time. Under these conditions, the association between temporal variation in the environmental covariates and the survival experience of members of the dynamic population can be estimated by regressing the daily number of deaths on the daily value of the environmental covariates, as is done in time-series mortality studies. Issues in extrapolating risk estimates based on time-series studies in one population to estimate the amount of life lost in another population are also discussed.

Air Pollutants↗
PubMed1989

Computer simulation of population dynamics of the American dog tick (Acari: Ixodidae).

A comprehensive computer model was developed for simulation of the population dynamics of the American dog tick (ADT), Dermacentor variabilis Say, in North America. The model simulates the effects of major environmental variables, such as ambient temperature, saturation deficit, kind of habitat, and host density, on ADT population dynamics in ecosystems with small mammals as hosts for immature ticks and medium-sized mammals or domestic dogs as hosts for adult ticks. General validity of the model was established by comparisons between simulated and actual population densities for a series of years at locations in Virginia, Maryland, and Massachusetts using actual weekly weather data for each year as a model input. Using historical-average weather data for 11 locations within the known geographic range of ADT and 3 locations outside this range, the model produced acceptable values for initial population growth rate and generation time, as well as realistic equilibrium population densities and seasonal activity patterns. This model can be used as a framework for additional modeling efforts to simulate the transmission of Rocky Mountain spotted fever and to study various strategies for management of ADT populations.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Variation in plant quality and the population dynamics of herbivores: there is nothing average about aphids.

In the attempt to use results from small-scale studies to make large-scale predictions, it is critical that we take into account the greater spatial heterogeneity encountered at larger spatial scales. An important component of this heterogeneity is variation in plant quality, which can have a profound influence on herbivore population dynamics. This influence is particularly relevant when we consider that the strength of density dependence can vary among host plants and that the strength of density dependence determines the difference between exponential and density- dependent growth. Here, we present some simple models and analyses designed to examine the impact of variable plant quality on the dynamics of insect herbivore populations, and specifically the consequences of variation in the strength of density dependence among host plants. We show that average values of herbivore population growth parameters, calculated from plants that vary in quality, do not predict overall population growth. Furthermore, we illustrate that the quality of a few individual plants within a larger plant population can dominate herbivore population growth. Our results demonstrate that ignoring spatial heterogeneity that exists in herbivore population growth on plants that differ in quality can lead to a misunderstanding of the mechanisms that underlie population dynamics.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Population dynamics in wastewater treatment plants with enhanced biological phosphorus removal operated with and without nitrogen removal.

The population dynamics of activated sludge in a pilot plant with two activated sludge systems, both designed for enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR), but one of them with (BNP) and the other without (BP) nitrogen removal, was monitored during a period of 2.5 years. The influent water to the pilot plant was periodically manipulated by external addition of phosphorus (P), acetate and glucose, respectively. The population dynamics and the in situ physiology were monitored by quantitative fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) and microautoradiography. Significant P removal was observed in both systems throughout the whole period, with significant increases of the P removal when substrates were dosed. The activated sludge in both systems contained large amounts of dense clusters of gram-negative, methylene-blue staining coccoid rods during the whole period. A large part of the clusters belonged to the beta Proteobacteria, whereas the rest of the clusters belonged either to the Actinobacteria or to the alpha Proteobacteria. The relative abundance of Rhodocyclus-related bacteria in the activated sludge varied significantly in both systems during the whole period (from 6 to 18% in BNP, and from 4 to 28% in BP). However, no statistically significant correlation of the Rhodocyclus-related nor any of the other investigated bacterial groups to the P content of the activated sludge (correlation for all groups investigated was always < 0.5) was observed. A significant 33Pi uptake was observed by the beta Proteobacteria (part of them Rhodocyclus-related, the identity of the rest unknown) and the Actinobacteria. However, not all of the Rhodocyclus-related bacteria showed 33Pi uptake. The P removal in the investigated plants is thus believed to be mediated by a mixed population consisting of a part of the Rhodocyclus-related bacteria, the Actinobacteria and other, yet unidentified bacteria.

Autoradiography↗
PubMed2002

[Relationship between population dynamic of freshwater leech Whitmania laevis and chemical factors of water].

The population size of freshwater leech Whitmania laevis had been observed every month in Guangzhou kaleyard slot from 1994 to 1998, and ten chemical factors of water were measured. The relationship between the population dynamic of W. laevis and chemical factors was studied by stepwise regression analysis method. The results showed that the population size dynamic of W. laevis was different every year. The maximum of population size appeared in April, May, and June, and the total population size of three months was accounted for 57.14-71.18% of whole year. The major chemical factors that effected on the annual population size were different every year, and the factors included pH value, PO(4)3-, Na+, Ca2+, and Mg2+. Fe3+ was the chief chemical factor effecting on population size during the 5 years observation. The behavior of leech W. laevis was also described in this paper.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Population dynamic consequences of allee effects.

We take a well-known dynamic model of an isolated, unstructured population and modify this to include a factor that allows for a reduction in fitness due to declining population sizes, often termed an Allee effect. Analysis of the behaviour of this model is carried out on two fronts - determining the equilibrium values and examining the stability of these equilibria. Our results point to the stabilising effect on population dynamics of the Allee effect and an unexpected increase in stability with increased competition due to the interaction between competitive and Allee effects.

Ecology↗