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Beware of samples! A cognitive-ecological sampling approach to judgment biases.

A cognitive-ecological approach to judgment biases is presented and substantiated by recent empirical evidence. Latent properties of the environment are not amenable to direct assessment but have to be inferred from empirical samples that provide the interface between cognition and the environment. The sampling process may draw on the external world or on internal memories. For systematic reasons (proximity, salience, and focus of attention), the resulting samples tend to be biased (selective, skewed, or conditional on information search strategies). Because people lack the metacognitive ability to understand and control for sampling constraints (predictor sampling, criterion sampling, selective-outcome sampling, etc.), the sampling biases carry over to subsequent judgments. Within this framework, alternative accounts are offered for a number of judgment biases, such as base-rate neglect, confirmation bias, illusory correlation, pseudo-contingency, Simpson's paradox, outgroup devaluation, and pragmatic-confusion effects.

Cognition↗

The SENIC sampling process: design for choosing hospitals and patients and results of sample selection.

To achieve its primary objectives, the Study on the Efficacy of Nosocomial Infection Control (SENIC Project) focused its attention on a target population of patients referred to as SENIC-eligible admissions in a target population of hospitals referred to as the "SENIC Universe." SENIC thus required a design for sampling hospitals and patients within these hospitals and a valid procedure for projecting sample results to the target population. This paper presents the details of the sampling design used, describes the actual process of selecting hospitals and patients for the surveys, explains the procedure used to project sample results to the target population, and examines the possibility of bias in the design and hospital selection process. As with most large-scale sample surveys, the design and sample selection processes for the surveys in Phases II and III of SENIC were complicated by incomplete frame, nonresponse and measurement problems. Nevertheless, adjustments to reduce the effects of some of these problems have been made through the development of a valid procedure for projecting sample results to the target population, and it appears unlikely that practically important nonsampling biases will result from the estimation procedures applied to this sample of hospitals.

Cross Infection↗

Ranked set sampling for replicated sampling designs.

In practical ecological sampling studies, a certain design (such as plot sampling or line-intercept sampling) is usually replicated more than once. For each replication, the Horvitz-Thompson estimation of the objective parameter is considered. Finally, an overall estimator is achieved by averaging the single Horvitz-Thompson estimators. Because the design replications are drawn independently and under the same conditions, the overall estimator is simply the sample mean of the Horvitz-Thompson estimators under simple random sampling. This procedure may be wisely improved by using ranked set sampling. Hence, we propose the replicated protocol under ranked set sampling, which gives rise to a more accurate estimation than the replicated protocol under simple random sampling.

Animals↗

Developing optimum sample size and multistage sampling plans for Lobesia botrana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) larval infestation and injury in northern Greece.

The purpose of this research was to quantify the spatial pattern and develop a sampling program for larvae of Lobesia botrana Denis and Schiffermüller (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), an important vineyard pest in northern Greece. Taylor's power law and Iwao's patchiness regression were used to model the relationship between the mean and the variance of larval counts. Analysis of covariance was carried out, separately for infestation and injury, with combined second and third generation data, for vine and half-vine sample units. Common regression coefficients were estimated to permit use of the sampling plan over a wide range of conditions. Optimum sample sizes for infestation and injury, at three levels of precision, were developed. An investigation of a multistage sampling plan with a nested analysis of variance showed that if the goal of sampling is focusing on larval infestation, three grape clusters should be sampled in a half-vine; if the goal of sampling is focusing on injury, then two grape clusters per half-vine are recommended.

Analysis of Variance↗

Minimum sample size and sampling time requirements for assessment of rifampicin bioequivalence from FDC formulations.

SETTING: The WHO- and IUATLD-recommended protocol for rifampicin (RMP) bioequivalence utilises 20-22 volunteers and 8 h, whereas the requirement of other regulatory authorities is 12 volunteers with a 24 h sampling schedule. Differing sampling size and time requirements may change the outcome of RMP bioequivalence. OBJECTIVE: To determine the minimal sample size and time required to assess RMP bioequivalence from FDC formulations. DESIGN: Bioequivalence studies were conducted that fulfilled the criteria of the WHO and Indian regulatory protocols. From earlier studies, retrospective pharmacokinetic evaluation, power of the test and bioequivalence limits were also calculated using 8-22 volunteers and sampling points of 8-24 h. Pharmacokinetic and statistical evaluations from three representative studies showing low, moderate and high intra-subject variability are given to determine minimum requirements for RMP bioequivalence. RESULT: It was found that a sampling schedule up to 8 h was sufficient to compare the absorption process of RMP. There was no influence of reduced sample size on bioequivalence estimates of RMP that showed low or moderate variability. However, in a study showing higher variation, a sample size of 14-16 subjects was found to be optimal. CONCLUSION: It is possible to reduce the sample size requirement for determination of RMP bioequivalence using the WHO protocol.

Antibiotics, Antitubercular↗

Volume-weighted mean nuclear volume and nuclear area in advanced ovarian carcinoma. An investigation of sampling methods, sample size and reproducibility.

The influence of sampling issues on the reproducibility of volume-weighted mean nuclear volume (mean v) and mean nuclear area (MNA) assessments in patients with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage III and IV ovarian carcinoma was evaluated. Ten cases representing the whole range of MNA values were selected from a population of 131 cases. The MNA and mean v of the same tumor cell nuclei were determined in one session by switching between the stereologic module and the morphometric module of the video overlay program used. For both MNA and mean v in one series of measurements, tumor nuclei were sampled from the whole tumor area and in a second series from the most poorly differentiated part (the measurement area) in each section, thus giving four series of measurements per case. For all four series, 500 nuclei were point sampled from approximately 100 systematically randomly selected fields of vision, using the automated scanning stage controlled by the morphometry program. These large samples, containing 500 nuclei for each case, were regarded as representative in each case. To investigate the susceptibility of MNA and mean v to variance at lower sampling levels (fields, nuclei), a nested analysis of variance was performed. Then the influence of sample size and sampling method was evaluated by drawing subsets from these 500 nuclei in each case in three different ways (cluster, systematic or random) with four different sample sizes (50, 100, 125, 250). It was shown that for MNA assessed in the measurement area, the variance between patients contributed the most to the total variance.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Carcinoma↗

Venepuncture versus heel lance for blood sampling in term neonates.

BACKGROUND: Heel lance has been the conventional method of blood sampling in neonates for screening tests. Neonates undergoing this procedure experience pain. Despite various studies evaluating the role of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions to date, there are no effective and practical methods to alleviate pain from heel lance. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether venepuncture or heel lance is less painful and more effective for blood sampling in term neonates. SEARCH STRATEGY: Systematic search in accordance with Cochrane Neonatal Collaborative Review Group. All randomized controlled trials which compared pain response to venepuncture vs. heel lance were searched using MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library, reference lists of identified trials and personal files. No language restrictions were applied. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials which compared pain response to venepuncture vs. heel lance were selected for this review. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data regarding the primary outcome of pain response to venepuncture vs. heel lance as assessed by validated pain measures were abstracted. Secondary outcomes including the need of repeat blood sampling, bruising/hematoma at local site, and parental perception of their own anxiety and infant's pain were also abstracted. All data were analysed using Revman 3.1. When possible, meta-analysis was done using relative risk (RR) and event rate difference (ERD), along with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). If ERD was significant, number needed to treat (NNT) was calculated. MAIN RESULTS: Two trials were eligible for inclusion in the review. One study using Neonatal Infant Pain Scale (NIPS) and one study using Neonatal Facial Action Coding System (NFCS) and cry duration showed statistically significantly lower pain scores for venepuncture as compared to heel lance. In one study, maternal anxiety was noted to be higher in the venepuncture group as compared to heel lance group prior to the procedure; however, after observing the procedure, mothers rated their infant's pain to be lower in the venepuncture group. A meta-analysis was performed on the need for at least one additional skin puncture to obtain the required amount of blood using venepuncture as compared to heel lance. The relative risk for requiring more than one skin puncture for venepuncture versus heel lance was 0.19 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.10, 0.38]. The risk difference was -53% (95% CI -66%, -40%). The number needed to treat (NNT) to avoid one repeat skin puncture was 1.9 (95% CI 1.5, 2.5). REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS: Venepuncture, when performed by a trained phlebotomist, appears to be the method of choice for blood sampling in term neonates. For each two venepunctures instead of heel lance, the need for one additional skin puncture can be avoided. In view of the promising results derived from small studies with some methodological limitations, further well designed randomized controlled trials need to be conducted. The interventions should be compared in settings where several individuals perform the venepuncture and/or the heel lance.

Blood Specimen Collection↗

Testing the reliability of noninvasive genetic sampling by comparing analyses of blood and fecal samples in Barbary macaques (Macaca sylvanus).

Genetic studies of wild animal populations are often hindered by difficulties in obtaining blood samples. Recent advances in molecular biology have allowed the use of noninvasive samples as sources of DNA (e.g., hair or feces), but such samples may provide low-quality DNA and prevent the determination of true genotypes in subsequent DNA analysis. We present a preliminary study aimed at assessing the reliability of using fecal samples for genotyping in Barbary macaques (Macaca sylvanus). The test was performed on samples of blood and feces from 11 captive animals, using three dinucleotide microsatellites. The CTAB DNA extraction method was found to be the most relevant for Barbary macaque feces, yielding successful amplification at all loci for 70% of PCRs. All the fecal samples tested gave correct genotypes at least once for each locus when referenced against blood-derived genotypes. An average of 18.3% of PCRs displayed spurious genotypes (false homozygous or false allele). The minimum theoretical probability required to obtain a 100% accurate genotype is 0.74, based on the criterion that a correct genotype is assessed only if it was observed at least twice. The observed probability of obtaining a correct genotype from three PCRs, based on our genotyping results, was greater (0.81 on average) than the minimum threshold. In conclusion, our comparison of blood and fecal samples showed that fecal sampling is a reliable tool for the further study of wild Barbary macaque populations.

Animals↗

Distribution of aflatoxin in whole peanut kernels, sampling plans for small samples.

It is well known that the distribution of aflatoxin in a lot of whole peanut kernels is extremely heterogeneous. Several different statistical distribution models have been proposed, fitting the experimental data reasonably well as long as the samples are very large, but differing considerably when applied to small samples. Therefore, it is important to know the real distribution between single kernels for the evaluation of the effectiveness of sampling plans for small samples. It is shown by the analysis of 368 samples of 1-10,000 kernels from the same lot of peanuts that the negative binomial distribution represents a good statistical model. The variance can be estimated from the mean concentration of the analysed samples, as confirmed by the comparison of data from several independent investigations. Decisions based on small samples are especially unfavourable to the consumer, as even a lot with a high mean concentration will tend to give negative results. A reasonably small risk of a false decision, both to the consumer and to the producer, can be reached only if very large samples are analysed.

Aflatoxin B1↗

Direct determination of lead in biological samples by electrothermal vaporization inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ETV-ICP-MS) after furnace-fusion in the sample cuvette-tungsten boat furnace.

The newly conceived electrothermal vaporization (ETV) system using a tungsten boat furnace (TBF) sample cuvette was designed for the direct analysis of solid samples with detection by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Into this small sample cuvette, a solid mixture of the biological samples and diammonium hydrogenphosphate powder as a fusion flux was placed and situated on a TBF. Tetramethylammonium hydroxide solution was added to the mixture. After the on-furnace digestion had been completed, the analyte in the cuvette was vaporized and introduced into the ICP mass spectrometer. The solid samples were analyzed by using a calibration curve prepared from the aqueous standard solutions. The detection limit was estimated to be 5.1 pg of lead, which corresponds to 10.2 ng g(-1) of lead in solid samples when a prepared sample amount of 1.0 mg was applied. The relative standard deviation for 8 replicate measurements obtained with 100 pg of lead was calculated to be 6.5%. The analytical results for various biological samples are described.

Animals↗

Time sampling and measurement error: the effect of interval length and sampling pattern.

The accuracy of momentary time-sampling was evaluated for behaviors occurring for different proportions of time, for different momentary time-samples and for sessions of different lengths. For 1-hr sessions, momentary time-samples of 10, 20 or 30 see intervals between observations yielded 90% of estimates within 10% of the comparison standard, for behaviours of 25%, 50% and 70%. Behaviours occurring for 2% of the session were not accurately recorded even at 10-sec momentary time-samples. For a 5-min momentary time-sample, this criterion was only approached when 8 hr data was averaged to give a single score for each individual, for behaviours of 25% or more. The 5-min momentary time-sample was also compared with a 1 in 5-min cluster sample; although less accurate, cluster-sampling might be a useful strategy in some settings.

Behavior↗

Sampling strategies for water quality monitoring in lakes: the effect of sampling method.

Five different water sampling techniques have been compared in a series of lakes. In deep lakes, no significant differences were observed between mean summer nutrient concentrations measured in (i) a tube sample integrating over the photic zone taken from the deepest point; (ii) a surface dip sample taken at the deepest point; (iii) a surface dip sample taken by wading into the water's edge; (iv) a dip sample taken slightly further off shore by suspending a bottle below a buoy thrown out about 30 m from the shore; and (v) a sample taken along a short transect out from the shore using a model boat to transport the sample bottle. In shallower lakes the integrating tube sampler gave significantly higher estimates of mean concentrations than other methods due to the increase in volume of the unmixed hypolimnion which reduced the depth of the well mixed epilimnion to less than the tube length. For national survey purposes samples taken from the edge of the lake are the most cost effective.

Journal Article↗

Improved in vitro fertilization embryo quality and pregnancy rates with intracytoplasmic sperm injection of sperm from fresh testicular biopsy samples vs. frozen biopsy samples.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the outcomes of first-attempt IVF-intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles when using fresh testicular biopsy samples vs. frozen biopsy samples. DESIGN: Retrospective chart review of 92 consecutive first-attempt IVF-ICSI cycles. SETTING: Two IVF programs. PATIENT(S): Forty consecutive first-attempt IVF-ICSI patients using sperm from fresh testicular biopsy samples and 52 consecutive first-attempt IVF-ICSI cycles using frozen testicular biopsy samples. INTERVENTION(S): Testicular biopsy, IVF-ICSI with fresh and frozen-thawed spermatozoa. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Fertilization rates, embryo quality, pregnancy, delivery, and spontaneous abortion rates. RESULT(S): A significantly increased ICSI fertilization percentage was obtained with frozen testicular biopsy samples (76.5% +/- 3.1%) vs. fresh biopsy samples (68.3% +/- 2.6%). However, embryo quality, pregnancy, and delivery rates were higher in the fresh biopsy group. Mean embryo score was 4.54 +/- 0.31 and 3.62 +/- 0.2 in the fresh vs. frozen group, respectively. Chemical pregnancy rates (60% vs. 49.1%), clinical pregnancy rates (56.4% vs. 41.2%), and delivery rates (48.7% vs. 31.2%) were each higher in the fresh group vs. frozen group. Accordingly, the spontaneous abortion rate was lower in the fresh group (21.7%) vs. the frozen group (33.3%). CONCLUSION(S): Although the use of frozen biopsy samples has logistical advantages, we conclude it may be advantageous to use fresh testicular biopsy samples in IVF-ICSI cases whenever possible, as fresh specimens yielded significantly improved embryo quality, generally higher pregnancy rates, and lower spontaneous abortion rates.

Abortion, Spontaneous↗

Multibore sample cell increases EPR sensitivity for aqueous samples.

We have performed calculations, verified by experiment, to explain why the sensitivity of biological EPR can be dramatically increased by dividing the aqueous sample into separate compartments. In biological EPR, the major factor affecting sensitivity is the number of spins in the sample. For an aqueous sample at ambient temperature, this is limited by the requirement for a small volume, due to strong non-resonant absorption of microwaves by water. However, recent empirical studies have shown that this volume limitation can be greatly relieved by dividing the aqueous sample into separate volumes, which allows much more aqueous sample to be loaded into a resonant cavity without significant degradation of the cavity quality factor. Calculations, based on the Bruggeman mixing rule, show quantitatively that the composite aqueous sample has a permittivity much less than that of bulk water, depending on the aqueous volume fraction f. Analysis for X-band EPR spectroscopy shows that the optimal volume fraction of an aqueous composite sample, producing maximum sensitivity, is f=0.15, increasing the sensitivity by a factor of 8.7, compared with an aqueous sample in a single tube.

Electron Spin Resonance Spectroscopy↗

Automated sample preparation for the determination of budesonide in plasma samples by liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometry.

An automated bioanalytical method for the determination of the glucocorticosteroid drug budesonide in plasma samples at pM levels was investigated. The method was built using three separate automated analytical steps with manual transfer of samples between them. In the first step, a Tecan RSP150 (Genesis) pipetting robot was used to transfer 1 ml of centrifuged plasma samples and deuterated budesonide internal standard solutions into tubes and to homogenise the resulting admixture. In the second step, a solid-phase extraction was performed using an ASPEC Xli (Gilson) with 100 mg Isolute C18 columns. In order to avoid conventional time-consuming evaporation and reconstitution steps, the solid-phase extraction was coupled on-line to a trace enrichment system for further purification and concentration of the sample extracts. The concentrated samples were eluted in 300 microliters ethanol into injection vials, which were capped and transferred to the autosampler in the detection system. In the third step, the pre-treated samples were chromatographed in a gradient LC system and detected using a tandem MS system (Finnigan TSQ 7000), with an atmospheric pressure chemical ionisation interface. The described Analytical System consisting of one Tecan robot, two ASPEC systems and one LC-MS-MS system may analyse up to about 800 samples a week with less routine work for the analyst. The concentration range studied was 15 to 2500 pM in 1 ml spiked plasma samples and the limit of quantitation for the described method was determined as 15 pM, as defined by accuracy and precision better than 20%.

Administration, Topical↗

Comparative evaluation of European methods for sampling and sample preparation of soils--the Portuguese contribution.

The main purpose of this work was to prepare a Portuguese sampling strategy, according to the existing Portuguese recommendations, for the soil sampling exercise at Dornach in the framework of the CEEM soil project of the SMT Programme of the EU. Within this project, the results obtained from the Dornach study were compared with the results obtained by other European participants and also with the reference sampling. The objective of this comparison was to validate the method used and to evaluate possible factors of uncertainty that may arise from the application of our national guideline as well as possible advantages. Another objective, also important, was to provide information regarding the need for a harmonised procedure within the European Union related to soil sampling and sample preparation of soils. The results obtained were consistent with the results obtained by other participants, however, in the Portuguese recommendations there is a general lack of specific information that may complicate its application to polluted scenarios. In fact, those guidelines are valuable to detect the average contamination of the soil, but they are not useful to identify hot spots or the edge influence in a contaminated land. As a conclusion, the results obtained by the CEEM soil project helped to evaluate the Portuguese sampling plan. This may provide a basis for further standardisation of soil sampling for specific purposes, e.g. contaminated land, and to establish a technical support for criteria used in the accreditation of laboratories for soil sampling.

Accreditation↗

Determination of beta-19-nortestosterone and its metabolite alpha-19-nortestosterone in biological samples at the sub parts per billion level by high-performance liquid chromatography with on-line immunoaffinity sample pretreatment.

An immunoaffinity precolumn (immuno precolumn) packed with Sepharose-immobilized polyclonal antibodies against the anabolic hormone 17 beta-19-nortestosterone (beta-19-NT) was used for the selective on-line pretreatment of raw extracts of urine, bile and tissue samples by high-performance liquid chromatography. Using UV detection (247 nm), beta-19-NT and its metabolite 17 alpha-19-nortestosterone (alpha-19-NT) can be determined in biological samples with a detection limit of 0.05 microgram/kg. Owing to the high clean-up efficiency of the immuno precolumn and the large sample volumes used, confirmation by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry is possible at this level. In urine samples from a calf treated with 19-nortestosterone 17 beta-laurate, the maximum concentrations of beta-19-NT (1.3 micrograms/l) and alpha-19-NT (3.1 micrograms/l) were found seven days after intramuscular administration. In a bile sample from this calf only alpha-19-NT (55 microgram/l) was detected. In meat samples from three treated calves, the concentration of beta-19-NT varied from 0.1 to 1.6 micrograms/kg and no alpha-19-NT could be detected. In liver samples from these calves, the concentrations of beta-19-NT and alpha-19-NT were less than 0.05-0.1 and 0.5-0.9 micrograms/kg, respectively. In the corresponding kidney samples, the concentrations of beta-19-NT and alpha-19-NT were 0.4-0.5 and 0.5-1.6 micrograms/kg, respectively. The application of the same immuno precolumn to the determination of 17 beta- and 17 alpha-trenbolone, two structurally related steroids, is also demonstrated.

Animals↗

Use of nitric acid in sample pretreatment for determination of trace elements in various biological samples by ETAAS.

Trace elements in liquid biological samples may be determined by direct electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry (ETAAS). In our previous work it was found that samples containing proteins or DNA may leak out of the graphite tube before the drying step, despite the addition of various modifiers. In order to keep the sample to the graphite tube, samples were diluted before analysis 1 + 1 with 32% v/v nitric acid, or 5 microl of 32% v/v nitric acid was added to the graphite tube before ETAAS determination. Applying the proposed procedure, the concentrations of lead in eluted fractions after gel chromatographic separation of human cerebellar nucleus dentatus supernatant and platinum in isolated DNA samples were determined. The use of nitric acid in sample pretreatment prevent sample leakage out of the graphite tube, provided for even drying and considerably reduced nonspecific absorption in lead determination. The repeatability of measurements was better than + 6%. The accuracy of the procedure was checked by spiking samples. The recoveries for both elements lay between 93--104%. Nitric acid was found to be a better modifier than TRITON X-100.

Calibration↗