Search PubMed⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search PubMed

Results for “ROC Curve”

Search indexed PubMed citations on genomics, clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health. Explore titles, authors and supplied subject terms, then open the PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

114 records · Page 7Linked to original sources
PubMed2026

Spinal meningiomas: histopathological grading using a benchmark radiomics model with notes on disease control.

OBJECTIVE: Spinal meningiomas (SMs) are common primary spinal tumors for which surgery is considered the first-line treatment when safe and feasible. The ability to extrapolate the tumor grade from preoperative imaging may significantly inform early patient expectation-setting regarding recurrence. Building on radiomics studies in cranial meningiomas, the authors aimed to construct a benchmark radiomics model to preoperatively identify the histological grade of SMs. METHODS: Institutional surgical records from May 2012 to November 2025 were queried for pathology-confirmed meningiomas below the foramen magnum, with preoperative contrast-enhanced imaging available for segmentation. SMs were classified as low-grade (WHO grade 1) and high-grade (WHO grade 2 tumors and grade 1 tumors with atypia). Tumors were manually segmented, and features were extracted using the PyRadiomics software package. An ensemble model of k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and support vector machine classifiers was trained using nested cross-validation on a subset of 10 features to differentiate tumor grades. Clinical data for the cohort were also extracted, and disease control in an adjunctive clinical series was assessed. RESULTS: Seventy-four patients were included in radiomics analysis, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.879 and a mean F1 score of 0.748. The model's top 5 features were all texture features that differed significantly (p < 0.05) across low- and high-grade SMs. These included measures of tumor textural and contrast-enhancement heterogeneity, with overlap with features reported in radiomics models for histological grading of intracranial meningiomas. Fifty-five patients with a median radiographic follow-up of 22.2 (range 1.9-86.4) months remained for clinical analysis after exclusion of patients with less than 1 month of follow-up and syndromic meningiomas. Four recurrences occurred at a median of 20.8 (range 1.8-41.8) months. High-grade tumor pathology did not significantly impact progression-free survival (p = 0.682, log-rank test; Cox regression high vs low grade hazard ratio [HR] 0.62, 95% CI 0.06-6.11, p = 0.685). Subtotal resection was associated with poorer progression-free survival than gross-total resection (p = 0.004, log-rank test; Cox regression subtotal vs gross-total resection HR 10.62, 95% CI 1.46-77.05, p = 0.019). These findings remain contextualized within a relatively limited follow-up window and small recurrence event count, suggesting a need to characterize the interplay between tumor grade and extent of resection as drivers of local disease control in SMs. CONCLUSIONS: A preoperative radiomics model can stratify high-grade SMs using open-source tools applied to single-institution data.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Trade-offs in avian parental care: a review of theory and meta-analysis of brood size manipulations.

The selective forces shaping parental care have been studied for over 50&#x2009;years. While theoretical and experimental work has yielded qualitative progress, the large body of empirical work testing predictions about parental investment based on life-history trade-offs has yet to be synthesized. We first provide an overview of the core life-history theory exploring how selection might shape parental care. We then conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis on studies that experimentally manipulated brood size in birds, a widely used experimental approach to manipulate parental investment. We extracted 313 estimates from 62 studies representing 31 species of birds from 19 different families and tested key predictions on trade-offs in parental care derived from theory. Our analysis provides strong support for some predictions about life-history trade-offs in parental care, but weak or equivocal support for others. Specifically, we found that overall, avian parents respond to brood size manipulations as predicted by life-history theory: they increased care in response to brood enlargement, and decreased care in response to brood reductions. Furthermore, for the same relative manipulation size, responses to brood reductions were greater than responses to brood enlargements. This finding is consistent with predictions derived from life-history theory based on some types of non-linear utility curves. However, many predictions derived from theory are not well supported by our comparative analysis. Species' life-history traits such as clutch size (a measure of current reproduction), adult survival, and broods per year (two measures of future reproduction), explained little, if any, among-species variation in response to brood size manipulations. Several factors may explain this. We highlight that brood size manipulations may affect more than just perception of the value of current reproduction, such as altering parents' perception of predation risk. Importantly, these unintended consequences could lead to asymmetric responses like those we observed. Other common experimental approaches - such as hormone manipulations, altering a partner's effort, and food supplementation - often affect multiple traits or fitness components simultaneously, or may involve cues that poorly match the evolved mechanisms guiding parental behaviour. Our review of both theory and experimental approaches suggests that there are multiple opportunities for more precise experiments. We offer several recommendations for effective designs. One is improved understanding of the biology underlying the functions relating to costs and benefits, with careful consideration of not only how the manipulation will affect only one of those, but also the mechanisms that might alter how parents perceive the manipulation. We also emphasize general principles, such as assessing alternative hypotheses and devising multiple independent tests. Armed with these recommendations, we believe there are new opportunities to increase the strength of inference achieved from studies aimed at understanding the trade-offs affecting the evolution of parental care.

Animals↗
PubMed2026

Performance of AI-Based Screening Tools for Obstructive Sleep Apnea Across Apnea-Hypopnea Index Thresholds: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is highly prevalent but remains substantially underdiagnosed. Polysomnography (PSG) is the reference standard, but its cost and limited availability constrain large-scale case identification. AI-based screening tools may support risk stratification and referral prioritization, but their diagnostic accuracy across apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) thresholds remains uncertain. OBJECTIVE: This review aimed to systematically evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of AI-based OSA screening tools at AHI thresholds of &#x2265;5, &#x2265;15, and &#x2265;30 events/hour, with emphasis on models using non-PSG-derived inputs. METHODS: PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched for studies published from January 1, 2016, to May 3, 2026. Eligible studies included adults evaluated for suspected OSA or recruited from population-based cohorts, assessed AI-based models intended or interpretable for OSA screening, risk prediction, or screening-oriented severity classification, used PSG as the reference standard, and reported sufficient data to construct or reconstruct 2&#xd7;2 contingency tables. Diagnostic accuracy was synthesized separately by AHI threshold and input source using bivariate random-effects models, with 95% CIs and prediction intervals (PIs). Risk of bias and certainty of evidence were assessed using QUADAS-2 (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2) and GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation), respectively. RESULTS: A total of 60 studies were included, of which 47 contributed data to the meta-analysis. At AHI thresholds of &#x2265;5, &#x2265;15, and &#x2265;30 events/hour, pooled sensitivities were 0.94 (95% CI 0.92-0.96; 95% PI 0.71-0.99), 0.87 (95% CI 0.84-0.89; 95% PI 0.66-0.96), and 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87; 95% PI 0.61-0.94), respectively; the corresponding specificities were 0.77 (95% CI 0.69-0.84; 95% PI 0.30-0.96), 0.81 (95% CI 0.75-0.85; 95% PI 0.39-0.96), and 0.91 (95% CI 0.87-0.94; 95% PI 0.55-0.99), respectively. The corresponding areas under the summary receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.943, 0.907, and 0.920. For non-PSG-derived tools, sensitivities were 0.92, 0.85, and 0.81, and specificities were 0.70, 0.74, and 0.85 at the 3 thresholds, respectively. For PSG-derived models, sensitivities were 0.96, 0.90, and 0.85, and specificities were 0.82, 0.88, and 0.96, respectively. Exploratory subgroup analyses suggested performance variation across selected study and model characteristics, including region, algorithmic framework, data source, and validation method. CONCLUSIONS: AI-based tools showed generally favorable screening performance for OSA across clinically relevant AHI thresholds, although wide PIs suggest variable performance across future comparable populations and settings. By synthesizing diagnostic accuracy across 3 AHI thresholds and distinguishing non-PSG-derived from PSG-derived models, this review extends previous broad or modality-specific reviews and offers a clinically interpretable, pathway-specific basis for linking model performance to intended use. The findings may clarify potential roles for non-PSG-derived tools in front-end screening and referral prioritization and for PSG-derived models in reduced-channel assessment and sleep-laboratory workflow support. Given substantial heterogeneity, limited external validation, and low or very low certainty of evidence, prospective validation is needed before routine implementation.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Manual, digital, and AI tumour-infiltrating lymphocyte scoring: a secondary analysis of the APHINITY randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Stromal tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (sTILs) are prognostic in early-stage HER2-positive breast cancer, but their role in the context of dual HER2 blockade remains undefined. We evaluated manual, digital, and artificial intelligence (AI)-based sTIL quantification, together with AI-derived spatial metrics, for prognostic and treatment-benefit stratification using tumour samples from the phase 3 APHINITY trial. METHODS: In the APHINITY trial, 4805 patients were randomly assigned to receive chemotherapy plus trastuzumab with pertuzumab or chemotherapy plus trastuzumab with placebo. Median follow-up was 74&#xb7;1 months (IQR 68&#xb7;3-75&#xb7;4). We analysed 4262 haematoxylin and eosin-stained images using manual assessment, an automated digital approach, AI-based lymphocyte quantification (AI percentage lymphocytes), and two AI-derived spatial features (AI-TIL and immune hotspot). Interobserver reproducibility was assessed in 262 randomly chosen tumour samples scored independently by five pathologists. Multivariable Cox models were used to assess associations between TIL levels and invasive disease-free survival (primary outcome in APHINITY), distant recurrence-free interval, and overall survival. The heterogeneity of pertuzumab benefit was evaluated using subgroup analyses, subpopulation treatment effect pattern plot analyses, and nested Cox models with treatment-by-biomarker interaction terms. FINDINGS: Manual scoring showed high interobserver reproducibility (intraclass correlation coefficient 0&#xb7;84 [95% CI 0&#xb7;79-0&#xb7;88]). Concordance between manual and automated methods was modest. AI-based scoring (AI percentage lymphocytes) reclassified 120 (11&#xb7;6%) of 1035 node-positive tumours from immune-low (by manual scoring) to immune-high; this subgroup of patients showed greater separation of 5-year invasive disease-free survival curves between pertuzumab and placebo groups compared with patients whose tumours were concordantly classified as immune-low by both manual and AI-based approaches. Higher levels of TILs were associated with improved invasive disease-free survival for all sTIL measurement approaches and spatial measurements (hazard ratios [HRs] 0&#xb7;41-0&#xb7;93). Pertuzumab was associated with improved invasive disease-free survival at higher sTIL levels across all measurement approaches (HRs 0&#xb7;36-0&#xb7;48), but was not associated with higher values of spatial measures. The largest 6-year absolute improvements with pertuzumab were observed in patients with node-positive disease whose tumours scored in the highest level of immune infiltration of manual sTIL scoring (&#x2265;70&#xb7;0%; mean absolute improvement 12&#xb7;1 percentage points [SD 2&#xb7;8]). In nested prognostic and predictive models, AI-based immune hotspot scores provided the most consistent additional information when combined with any sTIL measurement (all p<0&#xb7;010). INTERPRETATION: Standardised manual sTIL scoring was reproducible, and digital and AI-based methods showed consistent prognostic stratification and potential for treatment-benefit stratification despite only modest correlation between platforms. AI spatial metrics provided complementary information beyond sTIL density and could support more scalable immune assessment. Future studies are needed to validate these approaches in independent cohorts and to clarify their clinical utility for stratifying contemporary HER2-directed therapies. FUNDING: None.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Post-exercise rehydration: a randomized cross-over trial comparing a 100% fruit juice, a glucose-based sports drink, and water.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies indicate that sports drinks may improve rehydration, compared to water, an effect likely achieved by manufacturing sports drinks to contain carbohydrates and sodium. However, there is a growing preference for natural products and a "food first" approach to sports nutrition. Fruit juices naturally contain similar concentrations of carbohydrates to sports drinks, but fruit juices may produce a more stable blood glucose profile. Fruit juices also naturally contain electrolytes, particularly potassium, but their potential as effective rehydration alternatives to sports drinks, which have higher sodium concentrations, is not well understood. This study compared the rehydration efficacy and glucose responses following consumption of a 100% fruit juice (Raw Hydrate&#xae;; FRU), a glucose-based sports drink (SPO), and water (WAT) after exercise-induced hypohydration. Importantly, rehydration beverages were matched for water volume, rather than total volume, to ensure that any potential differences in water balance were not due to unequal water volumes between trials, a limitation affecting previous rehydration research. METHODS: After familiarization, 17 adults (age: 28&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;8&#x2009; years; BMI: 23.8&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;2.9&#x2009;kg/m2) completed three trials in a randomized cross-over design. The participants cycled in the heat (~35&#xb0;C) to induce ~2% body mass loss (BML), then rehydrated over a 1&#x2009;h period in a laboratory (~21&#xb0;C) with a water volume equivalent to 150% of BML from either FRU, SPO, or WAT. This was followed by an additional 4&#x2009;h of seated rest (5&#x2009;h rehydration period), when blood glucose was measured (0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.5, and 2&#x2009;h after beverage consumption), and all urine produced was collected. RESULTS: During the 5&#x2009;h rehydration period, there was no effect of trial on total urine volume (FRU: 1266&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;403&#x2009;mL, SPO: 1338&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;361&#x2009;mL, WAT: 1394&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;360&#x2009;mL; P&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.156) or water retention (FRU: 42&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;12%, SPO: 37&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;10%, WAT: 35&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;11%; P&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.059). The blood glucose area under the curve differed by trial (P&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001), with all beverages significantly different from each other (FRU: 10.12&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;0.72 mmol/L/2h, SPO: 12.48&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;1.34 mmol/L/2h, WAT: 7.90&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;0.47 mmol/L/2h; P&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.003). CONCLUSION: Rehydration efficacy was similar between all beverages, but each elicited a distinct glycemic response. For sports drink consumers seeking a natural alternative or implementing a "food first" nutritional strategy, switching to a 100% fruit juice will not compromise rehydration effectiveness, but may elicit a lower blood glucose response. Although, it should be noted that an additional three participants were withdrawn from the study because of gastrointestinal issues after consuming the 100% fruit juice. This was likely a product of the present study's design, where a large volume of 100% fruit juice (average ~2,300 mL) was consumed in a short period of time (1&#x2009;h). Whilst this is a commonly used study design to robustly assess the rehydration efficacy of different beverages, future studies should distribute fluid intake over a longer duration, in order to improve ecological validity and reduce the risk of gastrointestinal issues.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Ivonescimab plus chemotherapy versus placebo plus chemotherapy in patients with advanced EGFR-mutated non-small-cell lung cancer after disease progression on EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy (HARMONi): a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Ivonescimab has shown clinical efficacy in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of ivonescimab plus chemotherapy versus placebo plus chemotherapy in patients with advanced EGFR-mutated NSCLC whose disease progressed after third-generation EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) therapy. METHODS: HARMONi is a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind, phase 3 trial done at 114 cancer centres and hospitals across Asia, Europe, and North America. Eligible patients were aged at least 18 years (upper limit: 75 years in Asia) with stage IIIB/IIIC or IV non-squamous EGFR-mutated NSCLC, disease progression after treatment with a third-generation EGFR-TKI, and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status score of 0 or 1. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) via a centralised interactive voice response system or interactive web response system to receive ivonescimab (20 mg/kg) or placebo plus pemetrexed (500 mg/m2) and carboplatin (target area under the curve 5 mg/mL per min) intravenously every 3 weeks. Randomisation was stratified by brain metastases status at enrolment and geographical region. The primary endpoints were progression-free survival by blinded independent radiology review committee and overall survival in the intention-to-treat population. Safety was assessed in patients who received at least one dose of trial treatment. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT06396065), has completed enrolment, and is ongoing for treatment and follow-up. FINDINGS: From Jan 25, 2022, to Oct 1, 2024, 660 individuals were screened for eligibility; of these, 438 were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive ivonescimab plus chemotherapy or placebo plus chemotherapy (219 per group). Of enrolled patients, 257 (59%) were female and 181 (41%) were male; 306 (70%) reported race as Asian, and 105 (24%) as White. At a median follow-up of 22&#xb7;3 months (95% CI 21&#xb7;5-23&#xb7;0), 275 progression or death events had occurred in 345 patients (129 events among 172 patients in the ivonescimab plus chemotherapy group and 146 events among 173 patients in the placebo plus chemotherapy group). Median progression-free survival was 6&#xb7;8 months (95% CI 5&#xb7;7-7&#xb7;1) in the ivonescimab plus chemotherapy group versus 4&#xb7;4 months (4&#xb7;1-5&#xb7;5) in the placebo plus chemotherapy group (hazard ratio [HR] 0&#xb7;52; 95% CI 0&#xb7;41-0&#xb7;66; p<0&#xb7;0001). At a median follow-up of 29&#xb7;7 months (95% CI 27&#xb7;7-31&#xb7;0), 262 deaths occurred in 438 patients (122 in the ivonescimab plus chemotherapy group and 140 in the placebo plus chemotherapy group). Median overall survival was 16&#xb7;8 months (14&#xb7;3-19&#xb7;0) in the ivonescimab plus chemotherapy group versus 14&#xb7;0 months (12&#xb7;8-15&#xb7;7) in the placebo plus chemotherapy group (HR 0&#xb7;79; 0&#xb7;62-1&#xb7;01). The most common grade 3-4 treatment-related adverse events in the ivonescimab plus chemotherapy versus the placebo plus chemotherapy group were decreased neutrophil count (42 [19%] of 218 vs 36 [17%] of 218), decreased white blood cell count (28 [13%] vs 24 [11%]), decreased platelet count (27 [12%] vs 14 [6%]), and anaemia (22 [10%] vs 27 [12%]). Serious treatment-related adverse events occurred in 61 (28%) patients in the ivonescimab plus chemotherapy group and 33 (15%) patients in the placebo plus chemotherapy group. Treatment-related adverse events led to death in four patients (disease progression, multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, and hepatic failure, each in one patient; gastrointestinal haemorrhage and pulmonary embolism in one patient) in the ivonescimab plus chemotherapy group and five patients (pneumonitis, myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accident, cognitive disorder, and embolic stroke, each in one patient) in the placebo plus chemotherapy group. INTERPRETATION: Ivonescimab plus chemotherapy showed a clinically meaningful and statistically significant progression-free survival benefit in patients with EGFR-mutated NSCLC after progression on EGFR-TKI therapy. The clinical benefit and lack of new safety signals of ivonescimab with chemotherapy support the potential for the combination as a new treatment option in this patient population. FUNDING: Summit Therapeutics.

Humans↗