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PubMed1997

Dementia-free life expectancy among elderly Japanese.

A 3-year prospective cohort study was conducted to estimate the life expectancy free of dementia (dementia-free life expectancy) in a representative sample of older persons living in an urban Japanese community. For the persons aged 65 years and older, who were not demented at the baseline survey in 1988, mortality and incidence rates of dementia were calculated. At the age of 65 years, males showed a total life expectancy of 18 years, including 16 years free of dementia, and females showed a total life expectancy of 23 years, including 18 years without dementia. At 65 years, the dementia-free life expectancy represented 89% of the total life expectancy for males and 79% for females. Total life expectancy and dementia-free life expectancy were longer among females than among males. However, the life-years with dementia were longer among females. This result would be attributable to a higher incidence of dementia and a lower mortality among females.

Age Distribution↗
PubMed2004

Taxation and life expectancy in Western Europe.

With the exception of Denmark, life expectancy in Western Europe has shown a significant increase over the last decades. During that period of time overall taxation has increased in most of the countries, especially in Denmark. We, therefore, examined whether taxation could influence life expectancy in Western Europe. We used information on the sum of income tax and employees' social contribution in percentage of gross wage earnings from the OECD database and data on disability adjusted life expectancy at birth from the World Health Organization database. We arbitrarily only included countries with populations in excess of 4 millions and thereby excluded smaller countries where tax exemption is part of the national monetary policy. We found that disability adjusted life expectancy at birth was inversely correlated to the total tax burden in Western Europe. We speculate whether a threshold exists where high taxes exert a negative influence on life expectancy despite increased welfare spending. The study suggests that tax burden should be considered among the multiple factors influencing life expectancy.

Europe↗
PubMed2005

Forecasting Spanish natural life expectancy.

Knowledge of trends in life expectancy is of major importance for policy planning. It is also a key indicator for assessing future development of life insurance products, substantiality of existing retirement schemes, and long-term care for the elderly. This article examines the feasibility of decomposing age-gender-specific accidental and natural mortality rates. We study this decomposition by using the Lee and Carter model. In particular, we fit the Poisson log-bilinear version of this model proposed by Wilmoth and Brouhns et al. to historical (1975-1998) Spanish mortality rates. In addition, by using the model introduced by Wilmoth and Valkonen we analyze mortality-gender differentials for accidental and natural rates. We present aggregated life expectancy forecasts compared with those constructed using nondecomposed mortality rates.

Aged↗
PubMed1998

The impact of peptic ulcer disease and infection with Helicobacter pylori on life expectancy.

OBJECTIVE: Knowledge about the influence of H. pylori-related disease on life expectancy might affect physician behavior in dealing with such disease. The aim of this study was to assess how life expectancy is influenced by H. pylori infection and peptic ulcer disease. METHODS: The declining exponential approximation of life expectancy was used to model the effects of H. pylori and various peptic ulcer disease conditions on life expectancy. Deaths from peptic ulcer and gastric cancer were determined from the Vital Statistics of the United States. H. pylori prevalence rates were derived from the existing literature. RESULTS: Cure of active peptic ulcer increases life expectancy by 2.3 yr in persons aged 40-44 yr and 121 days in persons aged 70-74 yr. More substantial impact occurs in complicated ulcer, with increases in life expectancy ranging between 26.1 and 6.3 yr. Primary prevention of H. pylori could increase life expectancy by 190 days in those aged 40-44 yr and 26 days in 70-74-yr-old subjects. CONCLUSION: The benefit of ulcer cure or H. pylori prevention diminishes as age advances. Cure of ulcers in young patients or in those who have sustained complications results in an appreciable increase in life expectancy. Successful primary prevention of H. pylori in selected populations could substantially increase life expectancy.

Adult↗
PubMed1985

Life expectancy of Swedish haemophiliacs, 1831-1980.

Life expectancy of Swedish haemophiliacs has been estimated for the period 1831-1980. The data were derived from 948 haemophiliacs of whom 580 survived throughout 1980. Applying standard demographic techniques, median life expectancy of patients with severe haemophilia was found to have increased fivefold, from a mere 11 years during the period 1831-1920 to 56.8 years during 1961-80. The corresponding estimates for patients with moderate haemophilia were 27.5 and 71.5 years, respectively. The limited data on patients with mild haemophilia did not indicate any significant improvements in mortality. From the beginning of this century to 1980 median life expectancy for Swedish males increased from 61.7 years to 75.6 years, an increase of 23%. Analysing the last 12 years of the study (1969-80), death rates for patients with severe haemophilia below the age of 45 were not much different from those of Swedish males in the population as a whole. The investigation implies that the mortality of haemophiliacs in Sweden is approaching that of the total male population.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1996

Estimated gain in life expectancy. A simple tool to select optimal reperfusion treatment in individual patients with evolving myocardial infarction.

Currently several modes of reperfusion therapy for acute myocardial infarction are available. Streptokinase, accelerated alteplase and direct angioplasty are the most frequently used. These options are increasingly effective, but are also increasingly complex and costly. Since, unfortunately, physicians are often restricted by budget limitations, choices must be made in clinical practice to provide optimal therapy to individual patients. In order to guide such decision making, we developed a model to predict the expected benefit of therapy in terms of gain in life expectancy. Patients' life expectancy will decrease after infarction. Part of this loss can be prevented by early reperfusion therapy. The clinical benefit of therapy ranges from negligible gain in patients with small infarcts treated relatively late to an expected gain of more than 2 years in patients with extensive infarction treated within 3 h of onset of symptoms. The expected benefits are presented in a set of tables and depend on age, previous infarction, estimated infarct size, treatment delay and intracranial bleeding risk. With the help of these table, resources will be allocated in such a manner that patients who will benefit the most will receive the most effective therapy. Patients with similar expected treatment benefit will be offered the same mode of therapy. Future life years were discounted at 5% per year. The arbitrary thresholds currently applied for decision making at the Thoraxcenter are: no reperfusion therapy when the estimated gain in discounted life expectancy was < 1 month, streptokinase for 1-4 months and accelerated alteplase for a gain > or = 5 months. Direct angioplasty is recommended in patients with an estimated gain > or = 12 months, and in patients with an increased risk of intracranial bleeding. In this way, approximately 80% of our patients will be treated with thrombolytics (40% streptokinase and 40% accelerated alteplase), while in 10% direct angioplasty will be initiated. Patients with small infarcts presenting late will not receive reperfusion therapy. These threshold values have been chosen arbitrarily, and different thresholds may be selected in other centres. However, the developed model would guarantee that treatment decisions are made in a consistent manner, to provide optimal therapy for patients with evolving myocardial infarction, in spite of limited resources.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2002

Global patterns of healthy life expectancy for older women.

This paper focuses on patterns of healthy life expectancy for older women around the globe in the year 2000, and on the determinants of differences in disease and injury for older ages. Our study uses data from the World Health Organization for women and men in 191 countries. These data include a summary measure of population health, healthy life expectancy (HALE), which measures the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and a complementary measure of the loss of health (disability-adjusted life years or DALYs) due to a comprehensive set of disease and injury causes. We examine two topics in detail: (1) cross-national patterns of female-male differences in healthy life expectancy at age 60; and (2) identification of the major injury and disability causes of disability in women at older ages. Globally, the male-female gap is lower for HALE than for total life expectancy. The sex gap is highest for Russia (10.0 years) and lowest in North Africa and the Middle East, where males and females have similar levels of healthy life expectancy, and in some cases, females have lower levels of healthy life expectancy. We discuss the implications of the findings for international health policy.

Aged↗
PubMed2002

Driving life expectancy of persons aged 70 years and older in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: We estimated total life expectancy and driving life expectancy of US drivers aged 70 years and older. METHODS: Life table methods were applied to 4699 elderly persons who were driving in 1993 and reassessed in a 1995 survey. RESULTS: Drivers aged 70 to 74 years had a driving life expectancy of approximately 11 years. A higher risk of mortality among men as a cause of driving cessation offset a higher risk of driving cessation not related to mortality among women that resulted in similar driving life expectancies. CONCLUSIONS: Nationwide, many elderly drivers quit driving each year and must seek alternative sources of transportation. Because of differences in life expectancy, women require more years of support for transportation, on average, than men after age 70.

Accidents, Traffic↗
PubMed2002

Life expectancy determination.

The estimate of life expectancy following a personal injury is probably one of the most important factors in determining the final quantum of damages. It is a calculation fraught with difficulties. This article endeavours to outline some general factors that aid prediction of life expectancy, and also discusses the evidence from the few long-term studies currently available.

Chronic Disease↗
PubMed1995

Life expectancy in four U.S. racial/ethnic populations: 1990.

Previous estimates of life expectancy in the United States have not corrected for biases in population and mortality data, and no study has examined life expectancy in U.S. Asian/Pacific Islander and American Indian populations. We used information on population undercounts by race/ethnicity in the census and on misclassification of race/ethnicity on death certificates to calculate life expectancy for black, white, American Indian, and Asian men and women in the United States in 1990. Correction for undercount and misclassification had little effect on life expectancy estimates for whites, but it substantially decreased estimates for American Indians and Asians. Asian men had life expectancies of 82.0 years and Asian women 85.8 years--the highest life expectancies reported for any population in the world and beyond the limit predicted by some current theories.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Functional transitions and active life expectancy associated with Alzheimer disease.

CONTEXT: The concept of active life expectancy, the number of years a person can expect to live without disability, is used for the first time, to our knowledge, to examine the effect of Alzheimer disease (AD) on total life expectancy with different degrees of disability. OBJECTIVES: To estimate and compare total life expectancy and average duration lived with different degrees of disability, between persons with and without AD. DESIGN: Ten-year prospective epidemiologic study. SETTING: A largely blue-collar rural community in Southwestern Pennsylvania. PARTICIPANTS: A population-based cohort of 1201 subjects (at the beginning of follow-up) with a mean age of 75 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: At age 70 and every 2 years thereafter, among persons with AD and nondemented persons, (1) the total expectancy of remaining life and (2) the duration lived with different numbers of impaired instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), grouped as 0 to 1, 2 to 5, and 6 to 7 impairments. RESULTS: Alzheimer disease greatly shortened the total life expectancy to a similar extent in men and women, with the most pronounced reduction among those who were younger. Besides their shorter survival, men and women with AD spent more absolute years, and also a greater proportion of their remaining lives, with 6 to 7 IADL impairments than did their nondemented age peers. Nondemented women spent more years with 2 to 5 IADL impairments than nondemented men, while women with AD spent more years with 6 to 7 IADL impairments than men with AD. CONCLUSION: The concept of active life expectancy adds a useful new dimension to the study of outcomes in AD.

Activities of Daily Living↗
PubMed1990

The life expectancy of profoundly handicapped people with mental retardation.

BACKGROUND: The life expectancy of people with mental retardation is shorter than that of the general population. Exact estimates of the length of survival for mentally retarded persons at especially high risk are not available, however. METHODS: We collected data on mortality and other factors for 99,543 persons with developmental disabilities, including mental retardation, who received services from the California Department of Developmental Services between March 1984 and October 1987. Three subgroups were selected on the basis of the four characteristics identified in previous studies as the best predictors of mortality among mentally retarded people (deficits in cognitive function, limitations on mobility, incontinence, and inability to eat without assistance). In all three subgroups, the subjects had severe deficits in cognitive function and were incontinent; the subjects in subgroup 1 (n = 1550) were immobile and required tube feeding; those in subgroup 2 (n = 4513) were immobile but could eat with assistance; those in subgroup 3 (n = 997) were mobile (but not ambulatory) and could eat with assistance. Life tables were generated for each of the three subgroups. RESULTS: Immobile subjects were found to have a much shorter life expectancy than those who could move about. Those who also required tube feeding (subgroup 1) had a very short life expectancy (i.e., four to five additional years). Those who could eat if fed by others (subgroup 2) had an average life expectancy of approximately eight additional years. In contrast, those who were mobile though not ambulatory (subgroup 3) had a life expectancy of about 23 additional years. CONCLUSIONS: Severe mental retardation is associated with a decrease in life expectancy, particularly for those who were immobile.

Activities of Daily Living↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Assessing the contribution of age-sex differentials in causes of death due to infectious and parasitic diseases to the trends in age-sex differentials in life expectancy in Mauritius.

This study applies two methodologies to Mauritian life tables and cause-of-death data: (1) the decomposition of sex differentials in life expectancy using Arriaga's approach and (2) the estimation of the effect of marginal reduction in deaths from infectious and parasitic diseases on life expectancy using Keyfitz's methodology on cause-specific entropy and that of Nanjo. The findings in this paper support earlier findings about the importance of the period 1969-1976 in the mortality transition in Mauritius, a period in which sex differentials in life expectancies reached a peak level. The results suggest that the driving force behind those sex differentials in life expectancy was the sex differential in mortality in infectious and parasitic diseases, first among the young (ages below 10 years) and second among the older population (ages above 50 years). If the decline in mortality due to infectious and parasitic diseases was differentially greater in the older ages compared to the younger ages, that difference would have gone a long way toward reducing the magnitude of the historic peak sex differential in life expectancy achieved in 1976.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1996

Total and occupationally active life expectancies in relation to social class and marital status in men classified as healthy at 20 in Finland.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To study differences in total life expectancy and in occupationally active life expectancy in relation to social class and marital status in men classified as healthy as young adults. DESIGN: Historical cohort study. SETTING: Finland. PARTICIPANTS: Altogether 1662 men classified as completely healthy at the time of induction to military service (mean birth year 1923), who had been selected as referents for a study of former athletes. Mean follow up time was 46 years. MEASUREMENTS: Vital status was determined by follow up through local parish data up to 1990. Mortality data were obtained from the Cause of Death bureau of the Central Statistical Office of Finland. Occurrence of work disability was assessed from nationwide disability pension register data. Mean total life expectancy and mean occupationally active life expectancy (end points disability pension or death before age 65 years) were estimated. Social class was based on the major lifetime occupation, while marital status was classified as "never married" or "ever married" at the end of follow up. MAIN RESULTS: Mean total life expectancy was highest among executives and managers (73.2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 70.3, 76.1) years), next highest in clerical (white collar) workers (72.0 (70.0, 74.1) years), and lowest in unskilled blue collar workers (63.65 (61.1, 66.2) years). Skilled workers and farmers were intermediate. For the occupationally active life expectancy estimates, a similar gradient was observed: highest for executives (61.9 (60.7, 63.1) years) and lowest for the unskilled (52.2 (50.2, 54.2) years). The ratio of occupationally active life expectancy to total life expectancy was highest for executives (85%) and lowest for farmers (81%) and unskilled workers (82%). CONCLUSIONS: The social class gradient known to exist for mortality is also present for occupational disability. Social class and marital status differences in mortality are already evident in early adulthood and continue into old age. Those with the highest life expectancy also have the largest proportion of their life span free of occupationally incapacitating disability.

Adult↗
PubMed1992

The standardized mortality ratio and life expectancy.

This paper develops a theoretical relation between the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and the expected years of life and establishes a regression equation for easy conversion between these two statistics. The mathematical expression of the derived relation is an approximation, requiring an assumption of constant age-specific mortality ratios. It underestimates the "true" value calculated based on life table technique when the age-specific mortality ratios increase with age. This equation provides a conservative method to estimate the expected years of life for cohort mortality studies and facilitates an assessment of the impact of work-related factors on the length of life of the worker. It also allows one to convert the SMR to life expectancy in smaller studies whose sole objective is to determine the SMR in a working population. A 1% decrease (or increase) in the standardized mortality ratio will result in 0.1373 years increased (or decreased) life expectancy based on white male data for the US population. Furthermore, with data from 14 large oil refinery and chemical worker cohorts of white males, the "derived" expected years of life based on the regression equation closely predicts the corresponding value calculated using a standard life table technique. This statistical equation is expected to have practical applications when used in conjunction with the SMR to provide an approximate measure of life expectancy, a term and statistic familiar to most lay people.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

Effects of physical activity on life expectancy with cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity is a modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease. However, little is known about the effects of physical activity on life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease. Our objective was to calculate the consequences of different physical activity levels after age 50 years on total life expectancy and life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We constructed multistate life tables using data from the Framingham Heart Study to calculate the effects of 3 levels of physical activity (low, moderate, and high) among populations older than 50 years. For the life table calculations, we used hazard ratios for 3 transitions (healthy to death, healthy to disease, and disease to death) by levels of physical activity and adjusted for age, sex, smoking, any comorbidity (cancer, left ventricular hypertrophy, arthritis, diabetes, ankle edema, or pulmonary disease), and examination at start of follow-up period. RESULTS: Moderate and high physical activity levels led to 1.3 and 3.7 years more in total life expectancy and 1.1 and 3.2 more years lived without cardiovascular disease, respectively, for men aged 50 years or older compared with those who maintained a low physical activity level. For women the differences were 1.5 and 3.5 years in total life expectancy and 1.3 and 3.3 more years lived free of cardiovascular disease, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Avoiding a sedentary lifestyle during adulthood not only prevents cardiovascular disease independently of other risk factors but also substantially expands the total life expectancy and the cardiovascular disease-free life expectancy for men and women. This effect is already seen at moderate levels of physical activity, and the gains in cardiovascular disease-free life expectancy are twice as large at higher activity levels.

Cardiovascular Diseases↗
PubMed1998

Gains in life expectancy from medical interventions--standardizing data on outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The gain in life expectancy is an important measure of the effectiveness of medical interventions, but its interpretation requires that it be placed in context. The interpretation of gains in life expectancy is particularly problematic for preventive interventions, for which the gains are often just weeks or even days when averaged across the entire target population. METHODS: We tabulated the gains in life expectancy from a variety of medical interventions as reported in 83 published sources and categorized them according to target population and disease. We considered prevention in populations at average risk for particular diseases, prevention in populations at elevated risk, and treatments in populations with established disease. RESULTS: The gains in life expectancy from preventive interventions in populations at average risk ranged from less than one month to slightly more than one year per person receiving the intervention, but the gains were as high as five years or more if the prevention was targeted at persons at especially high risk. The gains in life expectancy from treatments of established disease ranged from several months (for coronary thrombolysis and revascularization to treat heart disease) to as long as nine years (for chemotherapy to treat advanced testicular cancer). CONCLUSIONS: A gain in life expectancy from a medical intervention can be categorized as large or small by comparing it with gains from other interventions aimed at the same target population. A gain in life expectancy of a month from a preventive intervention targeted at populations at average risk and a gain of a year from a preventive intervention targeted at populations at elevated risk can both be considered large. The framework we developed for standardizing gains in life expectancy can be used in the interpretation of data on the outcomes of interventions.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

The GAME estimate of reduced life expectancy.

The Declining Exponential Approximation of Life Expectancy (DEALE) is a simple method of estimating the impact of excess mortality on life expectancy, but it can lead to considerable bias due to the implicit constant baseline and excess mortality rates. This article presents a new method that does not use constant mortality rates. The variability of the baseline mortality is modeled using gamma (GA) distributions. Excess mortality rates are modeled using mixed-exponential (ME) distributions, which is appropriate if the excess mortality rate is nonincreasing, convex, and smooth. The new gamma mixed-exponential (GAME) estimate is convenient enough to replace the DEALE in formal decision analyses. The error from assuming gamma distributions for the Dutch baseline mortality was shown to be less than 2 months and typically about 1 month. Therefore, the GAME estimate is accurate enough to replace more elaborate methods, provided the mixed-exponential model is an appropriate model for the excess mortality.

Age Factors↗