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Defusing the baby boomer time bomb: projections of after-tax income in the twenty-first century.

There has been a major national policy debate over the prospective tax burden facing future generations of workers as a result of the impending retirement of the baby boom generation. However, the real determinant of well-being is after-tax income, not the tax rate on before-tax income. This study constructs a series of projections of after-tax income, for workers and families at different points in the income distribution, to examine the effects of several different trends. The author first calculates the extent to which after-tax income can be expected to decline as the result of the aging of the baby boomers, then calculates the impact on after-tax income for families at different points in the income distribution of a continuation of recent trends in wage inequality. He also constructs a category of "after-tax, after-health-care spending" income, which examines the impact of the continued rapid growth in health care costs. The findings suggest that the continuation of recent trends in inequality and health care cost growth will have a much larger effect on future living standards than will the aging of the baby boomers.

Actuarial Analysis↗

Distributive effects of benefits and taxes.

In light of the growing federal deficit, pressure is mounting to cut federal spending. If the budget for social security programs is cut, who will suffer? This article presents the results of a study that investigated the degree to which taxes and public income transfers change the level of income, the degree of inequality in income distribution, and the poverty rates of various demographic groups. Major findings are that public income transfers are more powerful than taxes in equalizing the income distribution and that poverty reduction through non-means-tested transfer programs is more effective among elderly people, white people, and people in married-couple families, whereas poverty reduction through means-tested transfer programs is more effective among nonelderly people, black people, and people in female-headed families. Implications for social work practice are discussed.

Black or African American↗

Social comparisons of income in one's community: evidence from national surveys of income and happiness.

Two studies provide evidence for social comparison effects of income on subjective well-being (SWB). The 1st study of 7,023 persons from nationally representative samples in the United States shows that the range and skew of the income distribution in a community affects a person's happiness, as predicted by range-frequency theory. The 2nd study of 8 nations over a period of 25 years shows that decreasing the skew (inequality) of the income distribution in a country increases average national SWB. Both studies strongly support social comparison effects of income within a community, and both results are predicted by range-frequency theory. These studies are the first to successfully extend earlier results of R. H. Smith, E. Diener, and D. H. Wedell (1989) from the laboratory into naturalistic situations. The magnitude of the social comparison effects is smaller than the main effect of income, which implies that nations can avoid creating a "hedonic treadmill."

Data Collection↗

Growth in family income inequality, 1970-1990: industrial restructuring and demographic change.

Industrial restructuring and changing population composition frequently have been treated as competing explanations of growing U.S. income inequality. Using the Gini coefficient, we employ a model of conditional change to explore the relative effects of each on changes of family income distribution between 1970 and 1990, across 784 metropolitan areas and public use microdata areas (PUMAs). Changes in both industrial structure and population characteristics are found to have significant and opposite effects on family income distribution, although there are sharp differences by decade in the dynamics that underlie increasing inequality. Our central conclusion is that it is too soon to eliminate deindustrialization as a significant cause of increased earnings inequality.

Adolescent↗

[Social inequality and health in Brazil].

This paper studies the relationship between social inequality and health in Brazil. The strategy adopted by the authors was to analyze needs and uses of medical care as well as access to health insurance plans according to income distribution. Determinants of health care consumption were also studied by means of logistic regression. The main source of data was the 1998 National Sample Household Survey of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (PNAD-IBGE). In general, individuals in the lowest income distribution deciles had less access to health insurance, greater need for medical care, and lower consumption of such services. Other determinants of health care consumption were heavily associated with the most privileged social strata (greater access to schooling, water supply, sewerage, electricity, garbage collection, and health insurance) and with factors pointing to the capacity to supply these services in country.

Adolescent↗

Physician compensation based on performance appraisal.

Physician compensation in a group practice setting has long been a subject of discussion and time investment, both on the part of managers and physicians. With a changing external environment, including Medicare fee freeze, capitation, and other forms of discounted, contractual medicine, former income distribution plans may not serve group practices well anymore. The ability of group practices to attract, retain, and develop physicians is at least partially dependent upon physician compensation structure. Taking into consideration marketplace characteristics for different specialties and offering equity in the compensation process are important features of any income distribution plan. This paper emphasizes a longstanding business tool, performance appraisal, which may be a key future determinant of physician compensation. The utilization of performance appraisal in establishing physician compensation is discussed and a sample performance appraisal instrument is included as a model.

Employee Performance Appraisal↗

Shifting dollars, saving lives: what might happen to mortality rates, and socio-economic inequalities in mortality rates, if income was redistributed?

Personal or household income predicts mortality risk, with each additional dollar of income conferring a slightly smaller decrease in the mortality risk. Regardless of whether levels of income inequality in a society impact on mortality rates over and above this individual-level association (i.e., the 'income inequality hypothesis'), the current consensus is that narrowing income distributions will probably improve overall health status and reduce socio-economic inequalities in health. Our objective was to quantify this impact in a national population using 1.3 million 25-59-year-old respondents to the New Zealand 1996 census followed-up for mortality over 3 years. We modelled 10-40% shifts of everyone's income to the mean income (equivalent to 10-40% reductions in the Gini coefficient). The strength of the income-mortality association was modelled using rate ratios from Poisson regression of mortality on the logarithm of equivalised household income, adjusted for confounders of age, marital status, education, car access, and neighbourhood socio-economic deprivation. Overall mortality reduced by 4-13% following 10-40% shifts in everyone's income, respectively. Inequalities in mortality reduced by 12-38% following 10-40% shifts in everyone's income. Sensitivity analyses suggested that halving the strength of the income-mortality association (i.e., assuming our multivariable estimate still overestimated the causal income-mortality association) would result in 2-6% reductions in overall mortality and 6-19% reductions in inequalities in mortality in this New Zealand setting. Many commentators have noted the non-linear association of income with mortality predicts that narrowing the income distribution will both reduce overall mortality rates and reduce inequalities in mortality. Quantifying such reductions can only be done with considerable uncertainty. Nevertheless, we tentatively suggest that the gains in overall mortality will be modest (although still potentially worthwhile from a policy perspective) and the reductions in inequalities in mortality will be more substantial.

Adult↗

Urban ozone plumes and population distribution by income and race: a case study of New York and Philadelphia.

Who lives in the downwind areas of urban ozone plumes? Location theory suggests that the poor should disaproportionately populate the downwind area, while the rich are most likely to live outside urban ozone plumes. Dynamically, we would expect that the downwind area would become poorer over time because the rich would "vote with their feet" under the serious impacts of urban ozone plumes. However, the importance of urban ozone pollution could be discounted due to the public's risk perception. According to risk and air quality perception literature, one would expect that the public would likely perceive ozone air pollution as a relatively low risk, compared with other environmental risks and social concerns. Therefore, actual population distribution might not follow what location theory suggests. Who actually does live in the downwind areas of urban ozone plumes? The results from a case study of New York and Philadelphia show that the ozone downwind areas are currently populated by a considerably larger proportion of upper income households and whites than the source areas. Furthermore, the population dynamics data do not provide any evidence for the "vote with their feet" hypothesis. While these findings deviate from the hypotheses prescribed by location theory, they are consistent with what we could expect from theories of risk perception.

Air Pollutants↗

Incidence of dog bites in Milwaukee, wis.

Dogs are everywhere. The incidence of and injuries caused by dog bites have grown to such epidemic proportions in certain parts of the United States that they are now considered a major public health concern. Playful Rover is no longer a harmless pet. Uncontrolled, he now can be considered a public nuisance. In this study, we evaluated the epidemiology of dog bites recorded in Milwaukee, for calendar years 1989-1991. This assessment included anatomical location of bites, victims' ages, behavioral antecedents, leading up to the bite incidents, season of the year, and animal ownership. The evaluation also measured the correlation coefficient between the frequency of dog bite incidents and median household income distribution within the city. During the 3-year period, a total of 3,926 animal bites, including 3,244 (83%) dog bites, were reported to the City of Milwaukee Department of Health. Of all the dog bites reported, 60% were on the upper extremities. Children less than 15 years old sustained 44% of the injuries, mostly to the head and face. Provocation by the victim accounted for 19% of the cases. The majority of the incidents (67%) occurred during the spring and summer months. In 49% of all cases, the victims families or neighbors owned the animals involved in the biting. Researchers also observed a significant negative correlation between bites and median household income distribution. Study results suggest a need to educate the public about the magnitude of dog-bite problems, enforce leash laws and impound stray dogs as an integral part of prevention programs.

Adolescent↗

Income and health: what is the nature of the relationship?

The aim of this article is to examine the relationship between income and morbidity, both before and after controlling for other socio-economic variables. We use data from the Health and Lifestyle Survey (first wave), a national sample survey of adults, aged 18 upwards, in England, Wales and Scotland, conducted in 1984-1985. In total, 9003 interviews were achieved. We examine the shape of the relationship between household equivalised income and height, waist-hip ratio, respiratory function (FEV1), malaise, limiting longterm illness. These indices of morbidity, both self-reported and measured, are approximately linearly related to the logarithm of income, in all except very high and low incomes (this means that increasing income is associated with better health, but that there are diminishing returns at higher levels of income). A doubling of income is associated with a similar effect on health, regardless of the point at which this occurs, providing this is within the central portion (10-90%) of the income distribution. The effect of income on the health measures is comparable to that of the other socio-economic variables in combination. The shape of the relationship found between income and health is compatible with worse health in countries with greater income inequality, without the need to postulate any direct effect of income inequality itself.

Adult↗