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Evolutionary demography and intrahousehold time allocation: school attendance and child labor among the Okavango Delta Peoples of Botswana.

The ways in which resources are allocated within households and/or families, especially within the context of children's time allocation to labor and schooling, has long been a subject of concern to demographers and economists. Differential investment in children and resulting differences in activity budgets may have significant effects on children's growth and development as well as on aspects of reproduction. This study uses predictions regarding parental investment in the embodied capital of offspring generated by evolutionary theory to examine the pattern of children's time allocation to labor and schooling among the Okavango Delta Peoples of Botswana. Models incorporating individual costs and benefits of resource allocation, conflicts of interests between men and women and between parents and offspring, and the effects of family composition, subsistence ecology, and gender are developed and applied to data on time allocation, household demography, and household economy. Several findings emerged: (1) The availability of alternative productive tasks strongly affects intra- and intergenerational labor substitution. (2) The presence of similarly aged children of the same sex within the household decreases the likelihood of both boys and girls engaging in a specific productive activity and increases the likelihood of children's school attendance. (3) Birth order, the labor needs of the household, and parents' marital status all affect school attendance. These results have implications for understanding the determinants of children's time allocation to labor and schooling and consequent impacts on development, health, and welfare.

Adolescent↗

On the Relationship Between Evolution of Virulence and Host Demography.

The effects of density-dependence on the evolution of virulence in super-infection models is the theme of this paper. The qualitative dynamics of three host-pathogen systems are studied numerically in a virulence-superinfection parameter landscape. It is shown numerically that pathogen's competitive exclusion coexistence and host population extinction depend heavily of the population dynamics of the host population. Reported patterns of diversity found using models without demography, are insufficient to account for the coevolutionary dynamics under defined selective pressures. Specifically, virulence and superinfection in the presence of a variable host population give rise to threshold values that divide (as switches) the regions of coexistence and competitive exclusion. Tight coevolution on a variable host population may occur within regions of parameter space that are not connected. We present our numerical results using a simple host-disease system where a homogeneous host population is invaded by two competing pathogen strains (partial analytical results will be published elsewhere).Copyright 1998 Academic Press Limited

Journal Article↗

Demography in relation to population density in two herbivorous marsupials: testing for source-sink dynamics versus independent regulation of population size.

We compared demography of populations along gradients of population density in two medium-sized herbivorous marsupials, the common brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula and the rufous bettong Aepyprymnus rufescens, to test for net dispersal from high density populations (acting as sources) to low density populations (sinks). In both species, population density was positively related to soil fertility, and variation in soil fertility produced large differences in population density of contiguous populations. We predicted that if source-sink dynamics were operating over this density gradient, we should find higher immigration rates in low-density populations, and positive relationships of measures of individual fitness--body condition, reproductive output, juvenile growth rates and survivorship--to population density. This was predicted because under source-sink dynamics, immigration from high-density sites would hold population density above carrying capacity in low-density sites. The study included 13 populations of these two species, representing a more than 50-fold range of density for each species, but we found that individual fitness, immigration rates and population turnover were similar in all populations. We conclude that net dispersal from high to low density populations had little influence on population dynamics in these species; rather, all populations appeared to be independently regulated at carrying capacity, with a balanced exchange of dispersers among populations. These two species have suffered recent reductions in range, and they are ecologically similar to other species that have declined to extinction in inland Australia. It has been argued that part of the cause of the vulnerability of species like these is that they exhibit source-sink dynamics, and disturbance to source habitats can therefore cause large-scale population collapses. The results of our study argue against this interpretation.

Animals↗

Signatures of large-scale and local climates on the demography of white-tailed ptarmigan in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA.

Global climate change may impact wildlife populations by affecting local weather patterns, which, in turn, can impact a variety of ecological processes. However, it is not clear that local variations in ecological processes can be explained by large-scale patterns of climate. The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a large-scale climate phenomenon that has been shown to influence the population dynamics of some animals. Although effects of the NAO on vertebrate population dynamics have been studied, it remains uncertain whether it broadly predicts the impact of weather on species. We examined the ability of local weather data and the NAO to explain the annual variation in population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan ( Lagopus leucurus) in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA. We performed canonical correlation analysis on the demographic subspace of ptarmigan and local-climate subspace defined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) using data from 1975 to 1999. We found that two subspaces were significantly correlated on the first canonical variable. The Pearson correlation coefficient of the first EOF values of the demographic and local-climate subspaces was significant. The population density and the first EOF of local-climate subspace influenced the ptarmigan population with 1-year lags in the Gompertz model. However, the NAO index was neither related to the first two EOF of local-climate subspace nor to the first EOF of the demographic subspace of ptarmigan. Moreover, the NAO index was not a significant term in the Gompertz model for the ptarmigan population. Therefore, local climate had stronger signature on the demography of ptarmigan than did a large-scale index, i.e., the NAO index. We conclude that local responses of wildlife populations to changing climate may not be adequately explained by models that project large-scale climatic patterns.

Animals↗

Historical demography of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in the Adriatic drainage including the putative S. letnica endemic to Lake Ohrid.

We explore the historical demography of the Adriatic lineage of brown trout and more explicitly the colonization and phylogenetic placement of Ohrid trout, based on variation at 12 microsatellite loci and the mtDNA control region. All Adriatic basin haplotypes reside in derived positions in a network that represents the entire lineage. The central presumably most ancestral haplotype in this network is restricted to the Iberian Peninsula, where it is very common, supporting a Western Mediterranean origin for the lineage. The expansion statistic R2, Bayesian based estimates of demographic parameters, and star-like genealogies support expansions on several geographic scales, whereas application of pairwise mismatch analysis was somewhat ambiguous. The estimated time since expansion (155,000 years ago) for the Adriatic lineage was supported by a narrow confidence interval compared to previous studies. Based on microsatellite and mtDNA sequence variation, the endemic Ohrid trout represents a monophyletic lineage isolated from other Adriatic basin populations, but nonetheless most likely evolving from within the Adriatic lineage of brown trout. Our results do not support the existence of population structuring within Lake Ohrid, even though samples included two putative intra-lacustrine forms. In the interests of protecting the unique biodiversity of this ancient ecosystem, we recommend retaining the taxonomic epithet Salmo letnica for the endemic Ohrid trout.

Animals↗

Dog ecology and demography information to support the planning of rabies control in Machakos District, Kenya.

A study of 150 dog-owning households from six randomly selected sublocations was conducted in Machakos District, Kenya. Initially, all households were visited to collect information on dog ecology and demography based on WHO guidelines and to collect serum for rabies antibody detection. A second visit was made 1 year later, to obtain follow-up data on births, deaths, dog movements and other events since the first visit. Dog ownership was common, with a range of 53--81% (mean=63%) of households owning dogs in the six sublocations. Dog density for the five more rural sublocations ranged from 6 to 21 dogs km(-2) and for the peri-urban sublocation was 110 dogs km(-2). The dog population was estimated to be growing at 9% p.a. (95% C.I. 4--14%). This growth was a function of very high fecundity (1.3 females per female per year) more than compensating for high mortality, particularly among females. Life expectancy from birth was 3.5 years for males and 2.4 years for females. Half the dogs at any one time were less than 1 year of age. All dogs, by design of the study, were owned. Of these, 69% were never restricted and roamed freely to forage for food and mix with other dogs. Only a small proportion of dogs (5%) were fed commercial dog food. Most households reported observing dogs scavenging their garbage, including: their own dogs (81%), their neighbours' dogs (75%) and unknown dogs (45%). Only 29% of dogs at least 3 months of age were reported to be vaccinated against rabies. The proportion vaccinated varied widely between sublocations (5--68%); 48% of dogs reportedly vaccinated had detectable antibodies, 31% at or above levels considered to indicate seroconversion. The proportion of dogs with detectable antibodies declined according to the time since last vaccination (55% if vaccinated < or = 1 year, 47% < or = 2 years and 36% > 2 years); 20% of dogs reported not to have been vaccinated had detectable rabies antibody. Compared to other dog populations in rural eastern and southern Africa, Machakos District has a high density of dogs. The Machakos dog population is growing, highly dynamic, poorly supervised and inadequately vaccinated against rabies. The main implication for rabies control is that adequate vaccination coverage is unlikely to be achieved, even under optimal delivery, using the current strategy of annual vaccination of dogs older than 3 months.

Animal Husbandry↗

Demography of the cereal rust mite Abacarus hystrix (Acari: Eriophyoidea) on quack grass.

Demography parameters of the cereal rust mite Abacarus hystrix (Nalepa) on quack grass were studied to investigate its potential capacity of population increase in conditions of initially low density. The experiment was maintained under laboratory conditions at a constant temperature of 19.5-20.5 degrees C and 94 +/- 1% RH. Life-history data were used to calculate duration of developmental stages, survival of adults and rates of population increase. A new method of estimation of age-dependent fecundity is proposed. On average, eggs required 7.98 (n = 33, 95% CI: 7.68-8.21) days to develop into adults. Life expectancy of females was longer than that of males (9.72 and 5.41 days, respectively). The mean sex ratio, expressed as the proportion of females, was 0.80 (n = 122, CI: 0.71-0.86). The reproductive output for females was age-dependent and daily egg production reached a peak (3.83 eggs/day, CI: 2.50-5.15) on the 5th day, and then decreased steeply. The net reproductive rate (R0) was 10.12 female progeny per female per generation, the generation time (T) was 11.31 days, the intrinsic rate of increase (r) was 0.20 female progeny per female per day, and the finite rate of increase (lambda) was 1.23 female progeny per day. These estimates showed that A. hystrix has a great potential capacity for rapid population increase when colonising new hosts and its density is low. Therefore, we conclude that the population of the cereal rust mite on quack grass may rapidly build up to very high densities and can be a reservoir population, which may easily disperse and infest other, including cultivated, grasses.

Animals↗

High-dose bolus tirofiban and sirolimus eluting stent versus abiciximab and bare metal stent in acute myocardial infarction (STRATEGY) study--protocol design and demography of the first 100 patients.

BACKGROUND: Primary bare metal stenting and abciximab infusion are currently considered the best available reperfusion strategy for acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Sirolimus eluting stents (SES), compared to bare metal stent (BMS), greatly reduce the incidence of binary restenosis and target vessel revascularisation (TVR), but their use on a routine basis results in a significant increase in medical costs. With current European list prices, the use of tirofiban instead of abciximab would save enough money to absorb the difference between SES and BMS. AIM: To assess whether in patients with STEMI the combination of SES with high dose bolus (HDB) tirofiban results in a similar incidence of major cardiovascular events (MACE) but in a lower binary restenosis rate after six months compared to BMS and abciximab. METHODS AND RESULTS: 160 patients are required to satisfy the primary composite end-point, including MACE and binary restenosis. The study is ongoing: the current paper focuses on the methodology and demography of the first 100 patients so far enrolled. Patients randomised to HDB tirofiban (n = 50, mean age: 62 +/- 12, 40 males) and abciximab (n = 50, mean age: 63 +/- 12, 38 males) do not differ for medical history, presentation profile, medications at discharge, angiographic profile and creatine-kinase MB-fraction at peak. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the trial will be available by the end of 2004: they will be crucial for the cardiologists to know whether the gold standard for AMI treatment should be reconsidered after the introduction of SES into the clinical practice.

Abciximab↗

Historical demography and genetic structure of sister species: deermice (Peromyscus) in the North American temperate rain forest.

To investigate the evolutionary and biogeographical history of Peromyscus keeni and P. maniculatus within the coastal forest ecosystem of the Pacific Northwest of North America, we sampled 128 individuals from 43 localities from southeastern Alaska through Oregon. We analysed mitochondrial DNA variation using DNA sequence data from the mitochondrial cytochrome-b (cyt-b) gene and control region, and we found two distinct clades consistent with the morphological designation of the two species. The sequence divergence between the two clades was 0.0484 substitutions per site for cyt-b and 0.0396 for the control region, suggesting that divergence of the two clades occurred during the middle to late Pleistocene. We also examined the historical demography of the two clades using stepwise and exponential expansion models, both of which indicated recent rapid population growth. Furthermore, using the program migrate we found evidence of migration from populations north of the Fraser River (British Columbia) to the south in both clades. This study demonstrates the utility of these model-based demographic methods in illuminating the evolutionary and biogegographic history of natural systems.

Animals↗

Demography of sleep disturbances associated with circadian rhythm disorders in Japan.

To clarify the demography of delayed sleep phase syndrome (DSPS), non-24-h sleep-wake syndrome, and irregular sleep-wake pattern in Japan, a cross-sectional nationwide epidemiological survey was conducted. 1525 adults (age: 15-59 years) were randomly sampled from telephone directories, and they received screening questions over the phone. Persons who were suspected of having the disorders were requested to fill out the second questionnaire, and asked to keep a sleep log for 4 weeks. Diagnoses were made according to the International Classification of Sleep Disorders criteria. As a result, the prevalence of DSPS was estimated to be 0.13%.

Adolescent↗

Nest predation by cowbirds and its consequences for passerine demography.

Brood parasitism by brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater) reduces reproductive success in many passerines that nest in fragmented habitats and ecological edges, where nest predation is also common. We tested the hypothesis that parasitism and predation are often linked because cowbirds depredate nests discovered late in the host's nesting cycle to enhance future opportunities for parasitism. Over a 20-year study period, brood parasitism by cowbirds was a prerequisite to observing marked inter- and intraannual variation in the rate of nest failure in an insular song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population. Nest failure increased with the arrival and laying rate of cowbirds and declined when cowbirds ceased laying. The absence or removal of cowbirds yielded the lowest nest failure rates recorded in the study. The absence of cowbirds also coincided with the absence of an otherwise strong positive correlation between host numbers and the annual rate of nest failure. Host numbers, cowbird parasitism, and nest failure may be correlated because cowbirds facilitate nest failure rather than cause it directly. However, an experiment mimicking egg ejection by cowbirds did not affect nest failure, and, contrary to the main prediction of the predation facilitation hypothesis, naturally parasitized nests failed less often than unparasitized nests. Higher survival of parasitized nests is expected under the cowbird predation hypothesis when female cowbirds defend access to hosts because cowbirds should often depredate unparasitized nests but should not depredate nests they have laid in. Where female cowbirds have overlapping laying areas, we expect parasitized nests to fail more often than others if different cowbirds often discover the same nests. We suggest that nest predation by cowbirds represents an adaptation for successful parasitism and that cowbirds influence host demography via nest predation.

Journal Article↗

A Norwegian national cohort of 3198 women treated with home-managed electrical stimulation for urinary incontinence--demography and medical history.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe the demography, medical history and clinical characteristics of women treated with home-managed electrical stimulation in Norway. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This prospective cohort study investigated all 3198 women treated with home-managed electrical stimulation in Norway from 1992 to 1994. Data were collected from both patients and physicians by questionnaires before and after treatment. RESULTS: Mean age was 53 years. According to the physicians, 43, 15, 37 and 5% of the patients had stress, urge, mixed incontinence and other diagnoses, respectively. Fifty-five per cent of the women had had symptoms for 5 years or more, 62% had urinary loss every day/night, and 59% of the patients were classified as having severe or very severe incontinence according to a validated severity index. Fifty-two per cent of the women used a long-term stimulator and 48% a maximal stimulator. Of 645 physicians who requested stimulators, 65% worked in general practice; 70% of the stimulators were requested by physicians working in hospital or specialists in private practice. Gynaecologists requested 53% of the stimulators. CONCLUSIONS: The Norwegian reimbursement system can be said to be a numeric success. Electrical stimulation is a treatment option for everyday use in Norway. This complete national cohort of 3198 women treated with home-managed electrical stimulation for urinary incontinence was biased towards younger patients and more severe incontinence.

Adolescent↗

Demography and function of children with limb loss.

This retrospective study was designed for the period 1982-2002 to collect the basic data on the demography, level and side of the amputation, involved limbs, age, gender, and prosthetic functional level in children with limb loss. A total of 232 children were assessed through their prosthetic records. Seventy-two percent (195 children) presented lower-limb involvement, and 28% (77 children) had upper-limb loss. The age of the children varied between 1 and 15 years with a mean age of 9.90 +/- 2.32 years. Results of the study revealed that the leading amputation cause in children was congenital limb absence. The most frequent levels were determined as trans-tibial and trans-radial in lower and upper limbs, respectively. Findings showed that more boys (60%) were affected, and 84% of all amputations were found to be unilateral. It was also seen that right-side amputations (54%) were more common than left-side amputations (46%). The outcome of the study showed that 96% of children with lower-limb loss reached a functional gait pattern without any aids, while the percentage of independence in activities of daily living was found to be 88% in upper-limb loss.

Accidents, Traffic↗

Epidemiology and demography of acute spinal cord injury in a large urban setting.

OBJECTIVE: In a large, single-center study of subjects with acute traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI), we describe the sample population with respect to gender, age, cause of injury, and severity of injury, to see whether these properties are similar to those of other large-scale studies of acute SCI conducted in the past. METHODS: As part of a study to examine the natural pattern of recovery after acute SCI (presented elsewhere), descriptive information was gathered in relation to subject population and injury properties. RESULTS: A total of 229 subjects were recruited. The study population had a higher percentage of women and a higher mean age of men and women than those of most other published studies of acute SCI. A greater percentage of incomplete subjects was also encountered. The incidence of gunshot injury as a cause of SCI was considerably lower in this study than had been the case 10 years previously in Dade County, Florida. CONCLUSIONS: The demography of acute SCI within a major urban center of South Florida suggests a trend toward less severe injury than in years past. These findings support the development of animal models for testing SCI treatment that include cohorts having mild to moderate injury severity, in order to achieve greater clinical relevance.

Adolescent↗

Effect of cadmium and chromium toxicity on the demography and population growth of Brachionus calyciflonrs and Brachionus patulus (Rotifera).

This paper reports on the assessment of the effect of Cd+2 and Cr+6 to the rotifers Brachionus calyciflorus and B. patulus using life table demography and population growth. Based on acute toxicity tests, cadmium was nearly 100 times more toxic than chromium for both the rotifer species. Age-specific fecundity curves of both the brachionids showed increased offspring beyond the age of 4 days and after that the production nearly stabilized for about 10 days and later declined. At any given treatment, B. calyciflorus had the higher rate of offspring production than B. patulus. For any given rotifer, increased metal concentration (Cd or Cr) resulted in decreased offspring production. While chromium at a concentration of 8.0 mg L(-1), permitted reproduction in B. calyciflorus, the egg production of B. patulus was inhibited at half that level (4.0 mg L(-1)). Cd at concentrations as low as 0.056 mg L(-1) caused 10-30% reduction in survivorship and reproductive parameters of B. calyciflorus. The lowest chromium concentration chosen for B. calyciflorus (0.5 mg L(-1)) had, however, a lower impact (2-22%) on the life history variables. Corresponding values of life history variables for B. patulus at the lowest Cd (0.0028 mg L(-1)) and Cr (0.25 mg L(-1)) concentrations varied greatly (2-40% and < 1-24%, respectively). Compared to controls, both the rotifer species in Cd or Cr treatments had lower densities. In controls, B. calyciflorus reached a peak abundance of about 100 ind. mL(-1), while the corresponding value for B. patulus was slightly higher (120 ind. mL(-1)). The rate of population increase (r) derived from the population growth data varied from +0.42 to -0.40 depending on the concentration of the heavy metal in the medium.

Animals↗

The combined effects of zinc and alga on the life table demography of Anuraeopsis fissa and Brachionus rubens (Rotifera).

In this work the combined effects of zinc and Chlorella on the demography of two co-occurring planktonic rotifers (A. fissa and B. rubens) were evaluated. Chlorella absorbed a significant (about 35%) quantity of zinc from the medium within the 24 h period. The age-specific survivorship curves of A. fissa and B. rubens showed increased mortality rate with increasing zinc concentration in the medium (0 to 0.5 mg L(-1)), at the two Chlorella levels (0.5 x 10(6) and 1.0 x 10(6) cells mL(-1)). In controls, both the rotifer species showed enhanced survival at higher food level (1.0 x 10(6) cells mL(-1)). Low food level (0.5 x 10(6) cells mL(-1)) and higher concentration (0.25 and 0.5 mg L(-1)) of zinc resulted in a steep fall in the survivorship. Regardless of Zn concentration and food level, A. fissa had a shorter average lifespan, lower gross and net reproductive rate, and rate of population increase than B. rubens. The maximum offspring production on a given day in controls for A. fissa was about 2 female(-1), which was reduced to half when exposed to 0.5 mg L(-1) of Zn. At both food levels, A. fissa exposed to Zn at 0.5 mg L(-1) had negative population growth rates. The highest population growth rate (0.94 day(-1)) was observed for B. rubens in controls at 1.0 x 10(6) cell mL(-1) of Chlorella. The present data showed that A. fissa was more sensitive to zinc toxicity than B. rubens. Combination of high vulnerability to metal toxicity and low population growth rate, A. fissa in zinc contaminated waterbodies could be possibly more adversely affected than B. rubens.

Animals↗

Demography and recruitment limitations of three oak species in California.

We review published studies on the demography and recruitment of California oak trees and focus on the widespread dominant species of the foothill woodlands, Quercus douglasii, Q. lobata, and Q. agrifolia, to ascertain the nature and strength of evidence for a decline in populations of these species. The vast majority of studies have been of short duration (less than three years), focused on the acorn and seedling life stages, and conducted at few locations within each species geographic range. We summarize the extensive body of research that has been conducted on the biological and physical factors that limit natural seedling recruitment of oaks. The oak "regeneration problem" has largely been inferred from current stand structure rather than by demographic analyses, which in part reflects the short-term nature of most oak research. When viewed over longer periods of time usingfield surveys or historical photos, the evidence for a regeneration problem in foothill oaks is mixed. Q. douglasii shows very limited seedling or sapling recruitment at present, but longer term studies do not suggest a decline in tree density, presumably because rare recruitment is sufficient to offset low rates of mortality of overstory individuals. Q. agrifolia appears to be stable or increasing in some areas, but decreasing in areas recently impacted by the disease Phytophthora ramorum. Evidence from the few available studies is more consistent in suggesting long-term declines in foothill populations of Q. lobata. Long-term monitoring, age structure analysis, and population models are needed to resolve the current uncertainty over the sustainability of oak woodlands in California.

Animals↗

Sexual differences in reproductive phenology and their consequences for the demography of Baccharis dracunculifolia (Asteraceae), a dioecious tropical shrub.

Patterns of phenological variation and reproductive investment were studied in the dioecious shrub Baccharis dracunculifolia DC (Asteraceae), and possible consequences on survivorship were evaluated. The sex ratio was determined in a natural field population (n = 921) of B. dracunculifolia in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Fifty-two males and 56 females were sampled at random from this population. During the reproductive season of 1999, inflorescence production, shoot growth and mortality, and xylem water potential were recorded for each individual. The population sex ratio was male-biased (1.27 : 1, P < 0.05), and was associated with a higher mortality of female shoots (38.4 vs. 23.1 %, P < 0.05), and individuals (17.8 vs. 11.5 %, P < 0.1), despite lower water stress in female plants. Flowering phenology also differed between the sexes, with males producing more inflorescences, and earlier, than females. Owing to fruit maturation, the number of inflorescences supported by females was higher than that supported by males later in the reproductive season. This occurred during the dry season, and drought stress may have been responsible for the greater female mortality. Thus, the male-biased sex ratio in this population of B. dracunculifolia is probably due to different reproductive functions of males and females. Intersexual differences in reproductive phenology had consequences for plant demography.

Baccharis↗