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Identifying older people with dementia: the effectiveness of a multiservice census.

A census of all relevant services in an area can be used to identify people with mental impairment suggestive of dementia. Two censuses in Tayside, Scotland, were used to test the effectiveness of this method. False positives accounted for 12% of returns. After excluding false positives, by comparison with expected dementia prevalence based on EURODEM, 66% of all sufferers and 50% of those living in the community were identified by the censuses. By pro-rating for non-response, the proportion of sufferers known to services was estimated as 72%. The characteristics of those not known to services are unclear and further research is needed on this. The cost of a census in an area of 250,000 population is under pounds 3000. A multiservice census offers a simple, inexpensive, practicable method of constructing a sample frame for population needs assessment.

Aged↗

Planning the 2001 census: only four years to go.

The first key stage in the build-up to the 2001 Census was reached with the 1997 Census Test on 15 June. As 2001 approaches, Population Trends will carry articles describing the detailed work and analyses that underpin preparations and decisions affecting the Census. In this inaugural article Graham Jones, Director of Census, ONS, explains the principles and issues which underpin the planning process, and the work in hand. A second article, from Dr David Martin, on the geographical information system planned for use in the 1997 Census Test appears later in this issue.

Bias↗

Research policy and review 23. The view of academic social scientists on the 1991 U.K. Census of Population: a report of the Economic and Social Research Council Working Group.

This is a report on the survey conducted for the United Kingdom Census Office by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) concerning the 1991 census. "The primary task was to solicit views on the priority which [academic social scientists] attached to the proposed topics to be covered by the Census and to ascertain their views on the changes in question wording which are under consideration.... Views were also sought on different methods for giving academics access to individual-level data from the 1991 Census."

Attitude↗

Federal statistics in a complex environment: the case of the 1980 census.

A discussion of the 1980 U.S. census is presented. The authors suggest that the taking of a national census is not just a statistical exercise, but an exercise involving ethics, epistemology, law, and politics. They contend that conducting a national census can be defined as an ill-structured problem in which the various complexities imposed by multidisciplinarity cannot be separated. "The 1980 census is discussed as an ill-structured problem, and a method for treating such problems is presented, within which statistical information is only one component."

Americas↗

Combining census, dual-system, and evaluation study data to estimate population shares.

"The 1990 [U.S.] census and Post-Enumeration Survey produced census and dual system estimates (DSE) of population by domain, together with an estimated sampling covariance matrix of the DSE. Estimates of the bias of the DSE were derived from various PES evaluation programs. Of the three sources, the unadjusted census is the least variable but is believed to be the most biased, the DSE is less biased but more variable, and the bias estimates may be regarded as unbiased but are the most variable. This article addresses methods for combining the census, the DSE, and bias estimates obtained from the evaluation programs to produce accurate estimates of population shares, as measured by weighted squared- or absolute-error loss functions applied to estimated population shares of domains."

Americas↗

A three-sample multiple-recapture approach to census population estimation with heterogeneous catchability.

"A central assumption in the standard capture-recapture approach to the estimation of the size of a closed population is the homogeneity of the 'capture' probabilities. In this article we develop an approach that allows for varying susceptibility to capture through individual parameters using a variant of the Rasch model from psychological measurement situations. Our approach requires an additional recapture. In the context of census undercount estimation, this requirement amounts to the use of a second independent sample or alternative data source to be matched with census and Post-Enumeration Survey (PES) data.... We illustrate [our] models and their estimation using data from a 1988 dress-rehearsal study for the 1990 census conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, which explored the use of administrative data as a supplement to the PES. The article includes a discussion of extensions and related models."

Americas↗

[Application of sampling methods in the population censuses of Bulgaria].

The application of sampling methods in population censuses in Bulgaria is discussed. "The author analyses its use in processing the population data, in statistical and sociological surveys, simultaneously and after the census and in post-enumeration surveys for the completeness and accuracy of registration. The peculiarities and new elements in the application of the sample method in population censuses from 1956 till now are pointed out, and special attention is paid to the 1985 population census." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

Bulgaria↗

How surveys are changing at the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

"This article describes the survey activities of the U.S. Census Bureau and recent efforts by the bureau to move toward a more fully automated environment....[It] focuses on four areas in which the Census Bureau is changing its approach to surveys: (1) redesigning the questionnaire for the Current Population Survey to better reflect current labor force conditions; (2) redesigning the same questionnaire to gain advantages from computer-assisted interviewing; (3) redesigning the samples for household surveys to be used during the next decade, a task undertaken after every decennial census; and (4) progress in changing to a computer-assisted survey information collection (CASIC) system and developing a data management network for all Census Bureau surveys."

Americas↗

Evaluation of the results of the register-based population and housing census 1990 in Finland.

"The 1990 population and housing census was the first one in Finland to be conducted entirely on the basis of registers, without any questionnaires. The Finnish population census system draws on the basic administrative registers of the society giving data on the population census target units and the links between them. These units comprise individuals, families, households, buildings, dwellings, enterprises and establishments. Transferring from one data collection method to another inevitably causes some kind of break in the time series. Because of these breaks it was decided in Statistics Finland to carry out an extensive evaluation study to analyse the differences between questionnaire-based and register-based census data."

Censuses↗

Complete censuses and samples.

"Complete decennial censuses are needed for small areas and other domains. Sample surveys yield diverse and timely data. Censuses can also be combined with samples, and sometimes with data from registers, for diverse estimates that are detailed over both space and time, and hence are timely for small domains. Methods of 'postcensal estimates' for small domains are described. We note uses of censuses for improving samples and of samples for improving censuses, and propose a method for cumulating data from 'rolling' (or rotating) periodic (weekly, monthly or quarterly) samples specifically designed to cover the population in detail over designed spans (annual and quinquennial)."

Censuses↗

The first complete enumeration of Papua New Guinea--the 1980 population census.

"The 1980 Population Census of Papua New Guinea was the first complete enumeration of the population of the country. It was also the first census to be designed and processed within the country. This paper gives the background to the census and outlines the development and implementation of the project, concentrating on the problems encountered and the procedures developed to overcome them in this (in many ways) unique environment. The census project was a thorough exercise and recommendations are also given for the future."

Censuses↗

The impact of a major televised sporting event on emergency department census.

This study examines the effect of a major televised sporting event, the Super Bowl, on emergency department (ED) census. Daily patient census figures for the month of January 1988-1992 were obtained. Individual shift census was divided by monthly mean census to compare relative volume. Census figures for 4 of the 5 Super Bowl days were significantly lower than the remaining 143 days studied. The day of the Super Bowl was the month's slowest shift for 3 of the 5 days. When the local team was a playoff participant, a stronger association was noted. The results demonstrate a significant decrease in ED utilization coinciding with the Super Bowl broadcast. Major televised events can significantly decrease ED volume, especially when local interest is present. Staffing changes may then be made accordingly.

Emergency Service, Hospital↗

[Validity of the municipality of residence in mortality statistics: findings based on municipality census update in 2 municipalities of the Valencian community].

This study was designed to assess the validity of the variable "city of residence" in mortality statistics in relation to the information available in municipal census. Monthly record-linkages between mortality register and two municipal population census corresponding to the period 1991-1992 have been studied. The population census belong to Benidorm, an important Spanish coastal tourist centre, and Alcoi, a traditional industrial city. Results show that of those listed in the Alcoi mortality statistics (602 deaths), 83% were registered in its municipal population census. In Benidorm (282 deaths), this percentage was 54%; in this last city, having a private address (in contrast with hotel, apartment or clinic address...) was positively related with being registered (66.2% versus 8.8%). Likewise, deceased with Spanish names were in more likely to be registered names in municipal population census: 70.2% versus 11.9%, respectively. The evidence obtained shows that tourist area mortality statistics could be unreliable due to the incorrect reporting of the city of residence on the death certificate, and suggests actions to improve it, which should take into account the town authorities and funeral services.

Demography↗

Census of neonatal transfers in London and the South East of England.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the number and characteristics of inter-hospital transfers of newborn infants in London and the South East of England. DESIGN: Prospective census of neonatal transfers over a three month period. SETTING: Transfers between the 53 hospitals that provide care for newborn infants within the former Thames regions. DATA SOURCES: Census returns from participating neonatal units. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number, timing, and hours of staff time spent on transfers. Gestation, birth weight, and reason for transfer of the baby. Time elapsed between request and retrieving team departing and arriving with patient. RESULTS: A daily average of 2.7 urgent, 3.5 elective, and 0.7 short term transfers took place during the census period. The most common reason for urgent transfer was neonatal surgery. Neonatal unit staff spent an average of 21 hours a day off their units accompanying transfers each day. It took over four hours for 90% of ambulances to set off with the retrieving team and over six hours for 90% of teams to reach the baby. CONCLUSIONS: During the census period, services for the transport of neonates in London and the South East of England involved long delays and used appreciable amounts of staff time. It is likely that a small number of dedicated neonatal transfer teams could meet the needs identified in this census more effectively than the 53 hospitals currently involved.

Ambulances↗

Identifying deprived areas using indices from the 1991 census and information about the recipients of community charge and council tax benefit.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess the level of agreement between those small areas selected as materially deprived by indicators derived from the 1991 census and those indicators derived from local authority benefit data. DESIGN: Census indices of deprivation and local authority benefits data were collected, compiled, and correlated for three districts in Yorkshire at enumeration district (ED) level. The composition of the "most deprived" quintiles of pairs of indicators was compared. PARTICIPANTS: Data were obtained from the 1991 census for the Bradford, Kirklees, and Rotherham districts. Community charge benefit and council tax benefit data were also obtained for all claimants in the three districts. MAIN RESULTS: Correlation coefficients between indicators of deprivation from the census and from the benefits data were shown to be quite high. However, the composition of EDs in the highest quintiles of pairs of indicators showed marked differences. CONCLUSIONS: Census indicators of deprivation and local authority benefits data select broadly similar groups of "deprived" EDs. Where deprivation indicators disagree is in the composition of specific quintiles which is due partly to methodological differences in the construction of the indicators, partly to deficiencies of the benefit data, and partly to the different aspects of deprivation which the various indicators measure.

Data Collection↗

On the feasibility of linking census samples to the National Death Index for epidemiologic studies: a progress report.

To test the feasibility of using large national probability samples provided by the US Census Bureau, a pilot project was initiated to link 230,000 Census-type records to the National Death Index (NDI). Using strict precautions to maintain the complete confidentiality of individual records, the Current Population Survey files of one month in 1973 and one month in 1978 were matched by computer to the 1979 NDI file. The basic question to be addressed was whether deaths so obtained are seriously underestimated when there is no Social Security Number (SSN) in the Census record. The search of the NDI file resulted in 5,542 matches of which about 1,800 appear to be "true positives" representing deaths, the remainder are "false positives." Of the deaths, 80 per cent would still have been detected without SSN in the Census record. The main reasons for missing deaths (false negatives) were discrepancies in the year of birth and in the given name. Assuming certain changes in the NDI matching algorithm, the 80 per cent figure could increase to 85 per cent or higher; however, this could also cause significant increases in the number of false positives. The National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI) and Census Bureau staff are currently developing a probabilistic method to eliminate false positives from the NDI output tape. The results of the pilot study indicate that a larger research project is clearly feasible.

Epidemiologic Methods↗

An Orsett census enumerator.

Given the wide use of Victorian census enumerators' books (CEBs), it is surprising that so little is known about the background and ability of the enumerators who compiled them. For the most part they are anonymous persons with difficult handwriting and strange spelling. One such enumerator was the current author's grandfather, William Woollings of Orsett, Essex, who compiled the censuses of 1851, 1861 and 1871 for one of the enumeration districts in the parish in which he lived. This article examines his qualifications for the task of census enumerator and attempts to find if his knowledge of and social standing in the local community affected the way in which he completed the census returns. Secondly, by comparing the three censuses that he compiled an overall assessment is made of the accuracy of his returns in the light of the difficulties that he experienced, and the improvements that were made over time.

History, 19th Century↗

[Is the analysis of blindness in developing countries at the occasion of a national census of interest to public health?].

Prevalence of blindness in developing countries is three to ten times higher than in developed countries. Needs for individual medical care are far from being met and this requires the implementation of comprehensive policies of prevention and treatment. Two distinct data sources are available to carry out these policies: direct ophthalmic surveys on representative population samples, and for some countries, a national census in which blindness cases are numbered out. In Togo, both sources are available; we have thus been able to analyse: data from the 1981 national census in which blindness is identified as a social handicap; and the results of 4 W.H.O. surveys conducted from 1982 to 1986, which measure blindness prevalence and analyse its causes. The analysis of both sources shows that: a national census cannot be a substitute for surveys which are the only means for determining blindness causes and implementing action programmes. nonetheless it provides exhaustive information, as well as data on geographical distribution and on age and sex pattern of blindness. It also allows the identification of high prevalence zones--not always spotted through a survey--and thus, the implementation of specific actions in affected zones. It appears, hence, that the question on blindness should be maintained in a national census; providing users bear in mind possible bias in blindness census, the fact that appreciation of blindness is a subjective exercise and also providing they don't yield to the temptation of drawing comparisons between blindness rates which don't cover the same realities.

Blindness↗